Patricio Pitbull vs Aaron Pico
Featherweight Bout • UFC 327
Saturday, April 11, 2026 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Patricio Pitbull
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Aaron Pico
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Patricio Pitbull
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2025 | Dan Ige | W | Decision (Unanimous) (3, 5:00) |
| Apr 2025 | Yair Rodriguez | L | Decision (Unanimous) (5, 5:00) |
| Mar 2024 | Jeremy Kennedy | W | TKO (Punches, Knees & Elbows) (3, 4:07) |
| Jul 2023 | Chihiro Suzuki | L | TKO (Right Straight) (1, 2:32) |
| Jun 2023 | Sergio Pettis | L | Decision (Unanimous) (5, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Aaron Pico
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2025 | Lerone Murphy | L | TKO (Spinning Back Elbow) (1, 3:21) |
| Feb 2024 | Henry Corrales | W | TKO (Ground & Pound) (1, 4:53) |
| Sep 2023 | Pedro Carvalho | W | TKO (Ground & Pound) (1, 3:05) |
| Apr 2023 | James Gonzalez | W | Decision (Unanimous) (3, 5:00) |
| Oct 2022 | Jeremy Kennedy | L | TKO (Shoulder Injury) (1, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (65.0 vs 63.0) and Grappling Composite (52.0 vs 58.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Patricio Pitbull Key Advantages
With 43 professional fights including 16 Bellator title fights and a simultaneous two-division championship reign, Pitbull brings an experience advantage that cannot be understated. His 83.7% career win rate across elite competition demonstrates sustained excellence at the highest level. The Brazilian's ability to read opponents mid-fight, make adjustments between rounds, and stay composed under pressure gives him a decisive edge against Pico's more limited 17-fight resume. Pitbull has faced and defeated elite competition including Michael Chandler, Juan Archuleta, and A.J. McKee, while Pico's best wins have come against mid-tier opponents.
Pitbull's 82% takedown defense is exceptional and directly neutralizes Pico's wrestling pedigree. Despite Pico's Olympic-level wrestling background, Pitbull has consistently shown the ability to stuff takedown attempts and force fights to remain standing where his counter-striking is most dangerous. His lower SApM (3.55 vs Pico's 5.70) reflects superior defensive awareness—he picks his spots and avoids unnecessary exchanges. This damage economy becomes critical over three rounds as Pitbull can weather Pico's early bursts while preserving energy for decisive later exchanges.
Pitbull's round distribution shows 6 wins in Round 3, reflecting his superior cardio and ability to escalate pressure as opponents fade. His 11:42 average fight duration demonstrates comfort in extended engagements, contrasting sharply with Pico's 6:18 average which indicates either quick finishes or quick losses. In a 3-round fight, Pitbull's late-round edge becomes critical —if Pico fails to secure an early knockout, the Brazilian is positioned to capitalize on cardio differentials in Rounds 2 and 3 with sharper counter-striking and increased volume against a fading opponent.
Pitbull's counter-striking timing is the product of 16 years of professional competition. His 47% striking accuracy reflects selective shot placement—waiting for opponents to commit forward before timing counters. Against Pico's aggressive, forward-pressing style, this discipline becomes a weapon: Pico historically overcommits to entries with wide hooks and overhands, creating exactly the openings Pitbull exploits. The Brazilian's ability to make opponents miss and make them pay was the hallmark of his Bellator reign where he knocked out Michael Chandler in the first round with a perfectly timed counter. Pico's 48% StrDef suggests he'll be vulnerable to these timing punches, particularly as the fight progresses and his patterns become readable.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Pico's explosive power and 6.21 SLpM output make the first five minutes extremely dangerous for Pitbull. All four of Pico's losses have come via first-round TKO, revealing his chin vulnerability—but 8 of his 13 wins also came in Round 1, showing devastating early power. If Pico catches Pitbull clean in the opening exchanges before the Brazilian can establish his rhythm and read Pico's timing, the fight could end abruptly. Pitbull's age (38) raises legitimate durability concerns against Pico's youthful explosiveness, particularly if the Brazilian is slow to start. The Lerone Murphy fight showed that elite featherweights can catch Pico early, but Pico himself is capable of delivering that same fate to opponents—his recent TKOs of Corrales and Carvalho both came via devastating ground-and-pound finishes inside the first round.
Despite Pitbull's strong takedown defense, Pico's Olympic-caliber wrestling (2.40 TD/15min, 52% accuracy) represents a legitimate threat if Pico commits to a grinding gameplan. If Pico can get past the initial takedown defense and establish top control, Pitbull's lower grappling composite (52 vs 58) could become a factor. The 30-foot cage helps Pitbull circle away from the fence, but if Pico traps him against the cage and chains wrestling sequences, it could neutralize Pitbull's counter-striking advantage and create scoring opportunities through control time.
At 38 years old, Pitbull faces the natural physical decline that affects all fighters. His recent loss to Yair Rodriguez via unanimous decision at UFC 314 showed potential cracks in the armor—Rodriguez's speed and movement created problems that younger Pitbull might have solved. Against a 29-year-old explosive athlete like Pico, the speed differential could be more pronounced, and Pitbull's reaction time on counter-strikes may have diminished just enough to turn near-misses into clean shots absorbed.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Pitbull's optimal strategy involves letting Pico come forward and capitalizing on counter opportunities. His 47% striking accuracy becomes more effective when opponents are overextending, and Pico's aggressive style creates natural openings. By maintaining distance in the first round, allowing Pico to expend energy on aggressive combinations, Pitbull can time counters off Pico's entries. The Brazilian's experience in 5-round fights gives him a natural comfort with pacing that Pico lacks— even in a 3-round fight, Pitbull can afford to give away early minutes knowing his counter-heavy approach becomes more effective as Pico's output declines.
Targeting Pico's body with hooks and kicks serves a dual purpose: slowing his explosive output and testing his cardio reserves. Pitbull's Bellator tenure showed effective body work against aggressive opponents, and Pico's defensive numbers (48% StrDef, 5.70 SApM) suggest he absorbs significant damage when engaged. By investing in body shots early, Pitbull can drain Pico's gas tank heading into Rounds 2 and 3, where the Brazilian's superior conditioning becomes his primary weapon. This approach also deters Pico's wrestling—commitment to body attacks punishes level changes and discourages grappling entries.
🚀 Aaron Pico Key Advantages
Pico's 6.21 SLpM output with 53% striking accuracy represents a significant volume and precision advantage over Pitbull's 4.32 SLpM at 47%. His boxing pedigree (trained under Freddie Roach and the Wild Card Boxing Club) gives him elite hand speed and combination work that can overwhelm opponents in exchanges. Nine of his 13 wins have come by KO/TKO, and his ability to close distance and land heavy combinations in rapid succession makes him one of the most dangerous early-fight finishers in the featherweight division. Pitbull's age-related chin durability decline adds an extra layer of danger to every clean shot Pico lands.
Pico's Olympic-level wrestling credentials give him a legitimate dual-threat capability. His 2.40 takedowns per 15 minutes at 52% accuracy dwarfs Pitbull's 0.65 TD/15 at 38%. The wrestling threat forces Pitbull to respect level changes, which opens up Pico's boxing—opponents can't purely defend the hands when the takedown threat is constant. Pico's ability to mix wrestling entries with boxing combinations creates a puzzle that has troubled even experienced fighters. His youth (29) and athletic explosiveness give him significant advantages in scramble situations and the ability to chain attacks at a pace the 38-year-old Pitbull may struggle to match.
At 29, Pico is in his athletic prime with a 9-year age advantage over Pitbull. This translates to faster hand speed, quicker recovery between exchanges, and greater explosive output capacity. Pico's training pedigree is elite—boxing under Freddie Roach at Wild Card, wrestling under the US Olympic program, and MMA training at Jackson- Wink in Albuquerque. His physical tools are arguably the best in the featherweight division: natural power in both hands, Olympic-level wrestling base, and the speed to close distance before opponents can react. Against a 38-year-old counter-striker, these athletic advantages become amplified—Pitbull's timing windows shrink against Pico's speed, and the recovery disparity becomes critical if both fighters absorb damage in close exchanges.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Pitbull's counter-striking expertise creates a dangerous dynamic for Pico's aggressive entries. The Brazilian's 43-fight experience includes reading and timing opponents who rush forward—exactly how Pico fights. All four of Pico's losses have come via first-round TKO, suggesting a chin vulnerability that becomes critical against a precise counter-puncher. If Pitbull can time Pico's entries with clean counter hooks or uppercuts, the same aggressive approach that generates Pico's best offense could lead to his undoing. Pitbull's ability to make opponents pay for overextending has been his calling card throughout a legendary career.
Pico's 6:18 average fight duration is concerning for a 3-round fight. While he excels when finishing early, his limited experience in extended engagements raises questions about his ability to maintain his explosive output if the fight reaches Rounds 2 and 3. His 5.70 SApM suggests he's absorbing significant damage even in wins, and against Pitbull's efficient counter-striking, that accumulated damage could compound quickly. If Pico fails to secure an early finish, he faces a scenario where his power diminishes while Pitbull's pressure intensifies—a recipe for late-round stoppage losses that have plagued Pico's career.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Pico's optimal strategy is to bring immediate pressure and test Pitbull's chin early. His explosive combinations and closing speed can overwhelm opponents before they settle into a rhythm. By mixing boxing combinations with wrestling fakes, Pico can keep Pitbull guessing and prevent the Brazilian from finding his counter-timing. The first two minutes are critical—Pico needs to establish dominance before Pitbull reads his patterns. Front-loading damage also serves as insurance against Pitbull's late-round advantages, potentially banking enough of a lead on the scorecards to survive a close final round.
Even if Pico doesn't intend to win via wrestling, using takedown attempts as disruptors keeps Pitbull off-balance and prevents the Brazilian from sitting back in his counter-striking stance. By threatening level changes, Pico forces Pitbull to split his defensive attention between the hands and the hips, opening up cleaner boxing lanes. Strategic takedowns in Rounds 2-3 also help manage cardio—grinding Pitbull against the cage and accumulating control time burns less energy than standing exchanges while still scoring effectively on the judges' cards.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 30-foot octagon at the Kaseya Center creates a dynamic that largely favors Pitbull's counter-striking approach. The extra space allows the Brazilian to circle, maintain distance, and avoid Pico's explosive entries—giving him time to read patterns and set up counters. However, the large cage also gives Pico room to build momentum for his blitz-style attacks, creating dangerous closing sequences where his hand speed and power are maximized. In early exchanges, Pico's athleticism and 9-year age advantage allow him to close distance quickly—but as the fight progresses, Pitbull's footwork and cage awareness (honed over 43 professional fights across Bellator, RIZIN, and the UFC) allow him to control positioning and dictate where exchanges occur. The cage becomes Pitbull's ally in Rounds 2-3 as Pico's output diminishes and the Brazilian can pick his spots more effectively. Notably, Pico's recent loss to Lerone Murphy came in a large cage where Murphy used movement and timing to land a devastating spinning back elbow—a template Pitbull may study for his own counter-striking approach.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical profile reveals a classic power-vs-precision matchup. Pico's 6.21 SLpM with 53% accuracy creates immense volume pressure, while Pitbull's 4.32 SLpM with 82% takedown defense and lower absorption rate (3.55 SApM vs 5.70) reflects a more efficient, damage-conscious approach. The grappling differential adds another layer: Pico's 2.40 TD/15min at 52% accuracy vs Pitbull's 0.65 at 38% creates a significant wrestling threat, but Pitbull's 82% TDDef neutralizes much of that advantage. The key differential is in fight management: Pitbull's 11:42 average duration vs Pico's 6:18 suggests drastically different comfort zones. Pitbull thrives in extended engagements where he can accumulate reads and timing data, while Pico's fights are designed for quick resolution—his 9 KO/TKO wins average under 3 minutes, suggesting explosive but unsustainable output. In a 3-round format, this creates a natural tension—Pico needs to capitalize early while Pitbull needs to survive the initial storm and shift momentum toward his counter-heavy approach. The composite scores (Pitbull: 65 striking/52 grappling vs Pico: 63 striking/58 grappling) suggest relatively even overall skill, making fight IQ and game planning the decisive factors.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical areas will determine the outcome: chin durability in early exchanges, cardio differential in later rounds, and the wrestling neutralization battle. Pitbull's 82% takedown defense should mitigate Pico's 2.40 TD/15 wrestling threat, but the threat alone forces defensive allocation that opens striking lanes. Pico's chin has been his Achilles heel (4 first-round TKO losses), and Pitbull's counter-timing could exploit Pico's aggressive entries. The fight likely hinges on whether Pico can land clean early power shots before Pitbull reads his timing—if the fight goes past Round 1 without a significant knockdown, the probability shifts dramatically toward Pitbull's counter-striking and superior conditioning.
🔄Bellator-to-UFC Transition Factor
Both fighters are in the early stages of their UFC careers after establishing themselves in Bellator. Pitbull (1-1 UFC) showed in his loss to Yair Rodriguez that elite UFC featherweights can outpoint him over 5 rounds, but bounced back with a solid decision win over Dan Ige at UFC 318. Pico (0-1 UFC) suffered a devastating first-round TKO loss to Lerone Murphy in his UFC debut, continuing a troubling pattern of chin vulnerability at the highest level. The transition factor creates uncertainty in both directions: Pitbull may have already acclimated to UFC-level competition (higher-caliber striking, faster pace), while Pico is still seeking his first octagon win. However, Pico's loss to Murphy was more about a single devastating strike than a systematic outclassing, meaning his ceiling in the UFC remains unknown. This fight between two Bellator veterans on the UFC 327 card serves as a crucial measuring stick for both fighters' championship aspirations in the loaded featherweight division.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Patricio Pitbull by Decision (28% probability), achieved through veteran pacing, counter-striking accumulation, and superior cardio management over three rounds. Pico's primary path is KO/TKO (30%) via explosive early combinations that test Pitbull's durability. Pitbull's KO/TKO path (18%) becomes viable through precise counters that exploit Pico's aggressive entries, particularly in Rounds 2-3 when Pico's output declines. Pitbull's submission path (9%) could emerge if Pico's wrestling attempts leave him exposed. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Pico can capitalize on his athletic advantages early before Pitbull's experience and counter-timing take over.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 22% | Fair: +355
GOOD VALUE
Model: 28% | Fair: +257
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 43% | Fair: +133
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Underprices Pitbull's experience edge – 43-fight resume vs 17 fights is a massive IQ differential.
- • Overvalues Pico's athleticism – Wrestling credentials have not translated to consistent UFC success.
- • Chin durability unknown – Both fighters have been stopped; 3-round format increases KO variance.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Patricio Pitbull
Primary path via counter-striking and pacing
Counter KO as Pico overextends in later rounds
Guillotine or RNC off scramble transitions
💥Outcome Distribution - Aaron Pico
Primary path via explosive boxing combinations
Requires sustained volume + wrestling control
Low submission profile; wrestling focused
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Aaron Pico
- • First 5 minutes: Highest KO equity via explosive boxing combinations and wrestling entries. 8 of Pico's 13 wins come in R1—he needs to make this count.
- • Pressure fighting: Close distance early with feinted level changes, force Pitbull to fight off the back foot. Use the cage to cut off angles and prevent Pitbull from circling into counter range.
- • Power punches: Overhand right and left hook to exploit Pitbull's shorter reach inside the pocket. Mix with wrestling entries to prevent Pitbull from sitting down on counters.
- • Ground-and-pound: If takedowns land, transition immediately to ground strikes. Pico's Corrales and Carvalho finishes show devastating GnP ability—don't waste top position on control time.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Patricio Pitbull
- • Counter-timing: Read Pico's entries and land clean counters as he commits forward. Make Pico pay for every overextension with hooks and uppercuts off the back foot.
- • Body work: Invest in body hooks and kicks early to slow Pico's explosive output. His 5.70 SApM shows he absorbs significant damage—body shots compound this and drain his gas tank heading into later rounds.
- • Late-round cardio: Push pace in R3 when Pico's output historically drops. Pitbull's 11:42 avg fight duration vs Pico's 6:18 demonstrates a massive conditioning edge that becomes decisive in the final frame.
- • Cage management: Use the 30-foot octagon to maintain distance and force Pico to chase. Circle away from power hand, use jabs and front kicks to manage range while waiting for counter opportunities.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Close fight; limited UFC data for both Bellator veterans
✅Supporting Factors
- • Experience edge: 43 pro fights vs 17 for Pico
- • Elite takedown defense (82% TDDef) neutralizes wrestling
- • Superior cardio and proven 3-round durability
- • Counter-striking accuracy against forward fighters
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Pico's explosive KO power (69% KO finish rate)
- • Pitbull's chin concerns at age 38
- • Pico's wrestling pedigree and takedown threat
🏁Executive Summary
This fight pits two former Bellator standouts making their mark in the UFC's featherweight division. Patricio Pitbull brings elite counter-striking timing honed over 43 professional fights and a recent victory over Dan Ige at UFC 318, bouncing back from a decision loss to Yair Rodriguez in his UFC debut. The Brazilian's vast experience advantage (43 fights vs 17) and track record of defeating elite competition—including Michael Chandler, A.J. McKee, and Juan Archuleta in Bellator—gives him a tactical edge that cannot be overlooked. Aaron Pico's explosive boxing power and Olympic-level wrestling pedigree make him dangerous early, but his 6:18 average fight duration and 4 career KO/TKO losses (all in Round 1) raise serious durability questions. Pitbull's 82% takedown defense should neutralize much of Pico's wrestling threat, while his lower striking absorption (3.55 SApM vs 5.70) suggests significantly better damage economy over 15 minutes. The fight likely hinges on whether Pico can land his power shots clean in the first round before Pitbull downloads his timing patterns and begins capitalizing with precise counters in the later rounds.
Prediction: Pitbull by Decision most likely (28% probability) through patient counter-striking and superior cardio management; Pico's best path is early KO/TKO (30%) via explosive combinations before Pitbull can establish rhythm. A true coin-flip fight where experience meets explosive athleticism in the 30-foot octagon at the Kaseya Center.