Marcin Tybura vs Aleksandar Rakić
Heavyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
Saturday, August 1, 2026 • Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia
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Marcin Tybura
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Aleksandar Rakić
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Marcin Tybura
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-06 | Ante Delija | L | KO/TKO (R1, 2:03) |
| 2025-03-22 | Mick Parkin | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-16 | Jhonata Diniz | W | TKO (Doctor's Stoppage) (R2, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-14 | Serghei Spivac | L | Submission (R1, 1:44) |
| 2024-03-16 | Tai Tuivasa | W | Submission (Arm-Triangle) (R1, 4:08) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Aleksandar Rakić
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Azamat Murzakanov | L | KO/TKO (R1, 3:11) |
| 2024-10-26 | Magomed Ankalaev | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-13 | Jiří Procházka | L | KO/TKO (R2, 3:17) |
| 2022-05-14 | Jan Błachowicz | L | KO/TKO (Knee Injury) (R3, 1:11) |
| 2021-03-06 | Thiago Santos | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (48 vs 52) and Grappling Composite (56 vs 57). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills. Note: Rakić's composites are benchmarked against the Light Heavyweight baseline ahead of his heavyweight debut.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Marcin Tybura Key Advantages
Tybura owns the only offensive grappling in the fight. Over a long career he has landed 46 clinch takedowns at 80.3% ground-striking accuracy and banked 7 submission wins — the Tai Tuivasa arm-triangle is a recent, live example. Rakić brings essentially zero offensive wrestling (0.66 TD/15, 3 career takedowns) and an elite-but-defensive 86% takedown defense. Every second this fight spends in the clinch or on the canvas is a second in Tybura's world and out of Rakić's. His TD/15 of 1.38 understates the game because his weapon is not the explosive shot — it is attritional cage-leaning that wears down even good takedown defense across three rounds.
Tybura is a natural 256-pound heavyweight; Rakić is a 206-pound light heavyweight climbing a division for the first time at 34. In the clinch and on the mat, that ~40–50 pounds of real mass is the great equalizer — and it directly stresses the one number Rakić's whole plan rests on. His elite 86% takedown defense was earned against 205-pound shooters; defensive wrestling is the most weight-sensitive skill in MMA, and it has never been tested against a true heavyweight grappler leaning his full frame in. If Tybura can make this a phone-booth fight, his size plus clinch-trip game is the single most reliable path on the board to neutralizing Rakić's power.
Tybura is 3-2 in his last five and still beating gatekeepers; Rakić has not won since March 2021 and arrives on a four-fight skid. Tybura's output builds round over round (118% R3/R1: 13.0 → 18.8 sig, accuracy spiking to 60.2% with 115 seconds of control) while Rakić fades (86% R3/R1). If this becomes an ugly, clinch-heavy, attritional fight — his specialty — the busier, larger, more recently effective man can bank rounds. And Rakić's own chin is now a live question: two of his last four losses were knockouts, the most recent a first-round finish, and he is hauling that freshly-dented chin up to a heavier division.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Tybura slow-starts 38.5% of the time and lands a feeble 44.4% in the opening frame. Rakić's R1 leg-kick storm (43.1% of his strikes to the legs) and 0.27 knockdown threat find the chin inside three minutes, and Tybura's 0% post-knockdown recovery rate turns one clean shot into a first-round finish — the Ante Delija (2:03) and Azamat Murzakanov tapes replayed. The opening five minutes are the most dangerous of his night, exactly when Rakić is most explosive.
Rakić's 86% takedown defense holds even against the size, Tybura can't drag it to the mat, and he spends fifteen minutes eating leg kicks and counters in a striking match he has no power to swing (knockdown_avg 0.06, SLpM just 3.59). His low R1 output (13.0 sig) lets Rakić bank the early rounds before the R3 surge that defines his game ever arrives — and in a three-round bout there is no championship round to rescue him.
📋 Likely Gameplan
The danger is front-loaded, so weather Rakić's opening leg-kick volley, eat what you must, and get to the body and the clinch. Tybura's proactive R1 tool is heavy body work (25.4% of his opening-round strikes) — use it to set up the clinch entry and slow Rakić early rather than trading in the pocket where the power lives. The goal of the first five minutes is simply to still be standing and to have grabbed hold of the smaller man.
Make it a wrestling match against the cage: clinch entries, body-lock trips, and the 46-clinch-takedown attrition game, using ~50 pounds of mass to break the 86% wall down over time rather than on one shot. Once on top, 80.3% ground accuracy and a live submission game (the arm-triangle, the rear-naked choke) make every second a scoring and finishing opportunity against a man with no offensive grappling. The longer it goes, the more it tilts toward the larger, late-blooming grinder whose output builds as Rakić fades.
🚀 Aleksandar Rakić Key Advantages
This is the fight's defining edge. Rakić owns a 4.00 knockdown-exchange ratio (8 dealt / 2 absorbed), a 64% career KO rate, and a leg-kick-to-head-kick finishing chain (the Manuwa head-kick KO is one of the cleanest in division history). Tybura owns a 0.20 KD exchange ratio, a 0% post-knockdown recovery rate (0 wins in 4 such fights), and a chin cracked by Delija, Aspinall, Sakai, Abdurakhimov and Lewis. The knockout threat in this fight points overwhelmingly at the gold corner — and Tybura has almost no power to answer it back (knockdown_avg 0.06).
Rakić does not need to wrestle — he needs only to stay standing, and his 86% takedown defense is the best defensive-grappling number in the building. If the wall holds, Tybura is stranded in a striking match he statistically loses. And the early window is his: a 0% slow-start rate, peak knockdown threat in Round 1 (0.27), and elite low absorption (SApM 2.91, rank 5/26) line his most dangerous minutes up exactly against Tybura's most passive ones. Add a Serbian-heritage fighter in the Belgrade Arena — a home crowd and the benefit of every close moment.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The size is simply too much: Tybura clinches early, leans 256 pounds on the cage, and the 86% takedown defense that held at 205 fails against a true heavyweight grappler. Round one becomes a takedown-and-grind, and the pattern repeats — the same pressure-wrestling half of the formula that beat Rakić against the elite of light heavyweight. Once on his back, his output collapses while Tybura banks control time and hunts from the top.
Carrying new heavyweight mass over three rounds is untested. The weight he did not cut becomes a cardio cost he did not expect, his "Slight Fade" (86% R3/R1) becomes a real fade, and a fresh-feeling Tybura takes Round 3 and the clinch exchanges. Or he stays in punching range too long against a man who absorbs and survives, gets dragged into the phone booth, and a late ground scramble hands Tybura the arm-triangle or a control-based decision — the one finish Tybura can actually produce.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Open on the legs immediately — the 43.1% R1 leg targeting and 0.80 leg-kick rate are the documented opener, meant to compromise Tybura's base and blunt the clinch entry before it starts. Then hunt the early finish: the chin is the target and Round 1 is the window (Rakić KD 0.27 vs Tybura's 38.5% slow start). The right hand and the head kick behind the leg-kick rhythm are the kill shots — and the numbers say the first two rounds are where his knockout equity lives.
Defend the clinch like the fight depends on it — because it does. Frame, circle off the cage, and keep it at distance; 86% takedown defense is the asset, and a 256-pound man cannot be allowed to turn this into wrestling. Untested at heavyweight, Rakić must also avoid a frantic pace that empties the tank early and feeds Tybura's Round 3. Pick spots, win the early rounds clean behind the leg-kick and counter game, and coast on the elite defensive wall if ahead.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
⏱️The Two Clocks
This fight runs on two opposing internal clocks, and whoever imposes tempo collects the cards. Rakić's win-equity is front-loaded — a Round 1 knockdown threat (0.27), a peak Round 2 (20.9 sig landed, targeting flipping to 62% head), then a fade. Tybura's is back-loaded — a 38.5% slow start, then a steady build to a 60.2%-accuracy, 115-second-control Round 3. The three-round distance is the battleground: it denies Tybura the championship rounds where his 177% champ-output gas tank is lethal, but it also shortens the runway Rakić has historically faded across. Rakić's peak-danger window lands exactly on Tybura's slow-start vulnerability, and Tybura's best round is the one Rakić is fading into.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical table tells a clean two-part story. Standing, Rakić wins almost every column that matters — more volume (4.16 vs 3.59 SLpM), far lower absorption (2.91 SApM, rank 5/26), a 4.00 knockdown-exchange ratio versus Tybura's woeful 0.20, and real one-shot power (0.52 KD avg, 64% KO) against a man with zero finishing pop and a chin that recovers 0% of the time after a knockdown. On the mat, Tybura owns the only lane that flips it — 46 career clinch takedowns, 80.3% ground accuracy, 7 submission wins, plus ~50 pounds of leverage to impose it. The obstacle is Rakić's elite 86% takedown defense, earned at 205 and now asked to hold against 256. If this stays on the feet, the numbers scream Rakić; if it hits the mat, they lean Tybura.
🧩Key Battle Areas
The pivotal unknown is 86% takedown defense meeting 50 pounds of mass. Rakić's defensive wrestling is genuinely elite for light heavyweight, but defensive grappling is the most weight-sensitive skill in MMA — leverage, underhooks and cage-pressure all scale with size, and Tybura's clinch game is attritional, the kind that wears down good takedown defense across fifteen minutes rather than beating it on one entry. Running underneath is the chin convergence: both men arrive breakable, but the knockout is a one-way street. Tybura cannot punish Rakić's chin (0.06 knockdown avg), whereas Rakić can absolutely punish Tybura's (0.52 KD avg, 64% KO rate, 0% recovery). If the wall holds, Rakić wins the striking; if it cracks under the size, Tybura wins the grind. There is very little middle ground.
🏁Final Prediction
The single most likely outcome is Aleksandar Rakić by KO/TKO (29%) — chopping the legs and finding the right hand or head kick against a slow-starting, chin-compromised Tybura inside the first two rounds. Rakić's decision path (24%) keeps the fight standing behind the elite takedown wall and out-strikes the bigger man. Tybura's real equity is his combined 36% (24% decision + 12% submission), and both flow through one mechanism: drag the smaller man into the clinch, use the mass, control on top, and either grind the cards or find the arm-triangle. His 9% KO is ground-and-pound and accumulation only — he has almost no standing power. The knockout in this fight travels one way; the grind is the long road.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 52% | Implied: 45.5%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 55% | Implied: 57.4%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 83% | Implied: 75%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Prices it as a grind – Both are chronic distance-goers, so the market leans to a decision and underprices "inside the distance."
- • Undervalues the one-way KO – Rakić's power (0.52 KD avg, 64% KO) into Tybura's 0% post-knockdown recovery is the cleanest finish route on the board.
- • Discounts size vs the wall – Tybura's ~50-pound edge and clinch attrition stack a second, submission finish route that a same-weight read would miss.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Marcin Tybura
Clinch control and top position bank the cards
Arm-triangle from top; the size mismatch is real
Ground-and-pound only — almost no standing power
💥Outcome Distribution - Aleksandar Rakić
Legs into the right hand/head kick; R1–R2 window
The wall holds; out-strikes the bigger man
Token figure — no offensive grappling
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Aleksandar Rakić
- • First two rounds: Highest KO equity — legs into the right hand and head kick.
- • Stay standing: 86% TDD, frame off the cage, deny the clinch.
- • Manage the tank: Pick spots, win the early rounds clean, coast if ahead.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Marcin Tybura
- • Survive the storm: Weather Round 1, work the body, close the distance.
- • Clinch attrition: 46 clinch TDs and ~50 lb of mass wear the wall down.
- • Drag to Round 3: Output builds (118%) while Rakić fades — bank the grind.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A genuine but modest lean to Rakić — the composites call it a coin flip (60.0 vs 59.8)
✅Supporting Factors
- • One-way knockout street (0.52 KD avg, 64% KO) into 0% recovery
- • Clocks align: Tybura's slow start vs Rakić's R1 danger
- • Elite 86% TDD gates Tybura's only reliable path
- • The more recently dangerous skill set and the fresher man
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Smaller man, heavyweight debut at 34 after a KO loss
- • Tybura's live grappling path: 46 clinch TDs + 50 lb
- • Both in visible decline; a 0-4 skid can collapse
🏁Executive Summary
We run 100 simulations and watch the same two stories recur. In roughly 55 of them, Aleksandar Rakić's power decides it — most often (29) by chopping the legs and finding the right hand or head kick against a slow-starting, chin-compromised Tybura inside the first two rounds; the rest (24) by keeping the fight standing behind an elite 86% takedown wall and out-striking the bigger man to a decision. He is the more dangerous striker, the fresher athlete, and the one with a finish in his hands against a chin that recovers 0% of the time. In the other 45, Marcin Tybura's size and grappling take over: he survives the early storm, leans 256 pounds into a 206-pound frame, and turns the fight into the clinch-and-grind attrition that is the only phase he wins — banking rounds (24) or finding the arm-triangle from top (12), with the occasional ground-and-pound stoppage (9) when Rakić's untested heavyweight gas tank betrays him.
Prediction: Aleksandar Rakić by KO/TKO most likely (29%), concentrated in Rounds 1–2, with his decision path (24%) close behind; Tybura's road runs through the clinch to a decision (24%) or arm-triangle (12%). What we believe with genuine conviction: the knockout only travels one way — Rakić can end it with a single clean shot, while Tybura must work fifteen minutes and a full grappling campaign. That asymmetry, against the steepest counter-current of all — a power striker shrinking into a bigger division right after his own knockout — makes this a lean, not a lock. On a partisan Belgrade night, the puncher's road is shorter, but the grinder's is wide enough that nobody should be surprised.