Uros Medic vs Daniel Rodriguez
Welterweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
Saturday, August 1, 2026 • Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Uros Medic
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Daniel Rodriguez
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Uros Medic
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | Muslim Salikhov | W | KO/TKO (R1, 1:03) |
| 2025-04-05 | Punahele Soriano | L | KO/TKO (R1, 0:31) |
| 2025-01-18 | Gilbert Urbina | W | KO/TKO (R1, 1:03) |
| 2024-08-03 | Tim Means | W | KO/TKO (R1, 2:09) |
| 2024-04-06 | Myktybek Orolbai | L | Submission (R2, 4:12) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Daniel Rodriguez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | Kevin Holland | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-15 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | W | KO/TKO (R3, 1:12) |
| 2024-11-09 | Alex Morono | W | S-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-15 | Kelvin Gastelum | L | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-13 | Ian Machado Garry | L | KO/TKO (R1, 2:57) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (76.5 vs 68.5) and Grappling Composite (31.0 vs 40.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Uros Medic Key Advantages
Medic's knockdown average (2.89, rank 2/54) and striking accuracy (61%, rank 5/54) crash directly into the single worst feature of Rodriguez's profile — a 40% slow-start rate and rank-46 absorption (5.40 SApM). The opening rounds are where Medic is most dangerous (0% slow start, engages immediately) and Rodriguez is most vulnerable, warming up behind a leaky guard. This is the fight's highest-variance, most fight-ending dynamic: a rank-2 power-puncher teeing off on a durable but hittable opponent before that opponent has found his rhythm. One clean sequence in the first six minutes ends the night.
Every single one of Medic's UFC wins has come by knockout, and his damage ratio (1.57, rank 7/54) sits in the top tier of the division. Crucially, once he hurts an opponent standing he follows to the floor: his ground accuracy is 90.4% and 32.2% of his Round-1 strikes land on the mat as ground-and-pound after a knockdown. He does not need to win a volume battle he would lose 7.3-to-3.5 — he needs one moment. Against an Average-chinned Rodriguez, the path is short and brutal: hurt, swarm, close. Three of his last four wins were sub-70-second first-round finishes.
A Serbian headliner in front of a Serbian crowd in Belgrade carries real intangibles — adrenaline, the judges' benefit of the doubt in close rounds, and a full camp built around his coronation. Underneath the noise is a genuine technical edge: Medic's 61% accuracy (rank 5/54) means he makes Rodriguez pay for every busy, 49%-accuracy entry, and the Muay Thai archetype (52.2% baseline edge over Technical Strikers) gives him a clinch/knee/elbow toolkit Rodriguez almost never operates in (0.7% R1 clinch). For a fight that may hinge on one moment or one close round, that thumb on the scale matters.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Medic fails to finish in the first two rounds, his Low-Output pace (3.5 strikes/min) leaves him down on volume, and Rodriguez's escalating output (38 significant strikes in Round 2) drowns him across Rounds 3–5 in deep water Medic has literally never seen — he has never fought past Round 3 in his career. A 40%-slow-start opponent who simply weathers the early surge on a "Good" chin flips the fight into a five-round volume marathon, the exact contest Medic is least equipped to win.
Medic's 56% takedown defense and two career submission losses (Turner, Orolbai) invite a Rodriguez clinch-takedown and scramble that steals rounds and drags the fight to the mat, where Medic has documented vulnerability. And his "Average" chin — cracked in just 31 seconds by Soriano — meets Rodriguez's compounding head accumulation late: the Ponzinibbio-style Round-3 (or championship-round) TKO, but with Medic on the receiving end as his own unproven cardio fades.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Medic's entire profile screams urgency — a 4:37 average fight time, 0% slow start, 100% career finish rate. He must pressure Rodriguez's slow start immediately and end the fight before the volume and the deep water ever become the story. Rounds 1 and 2 are non-negotiable: attack the 40%-slow-start opener behind rank-2 power while he is still cold, force the exchange, and close the moment Rodriguez is hurt. Every minute the fight survives bends it toward the other man.
Rodriguez throws huge but at only 49% accuracy and eats a lot; Medic's 61% accuracy and rank-2 knockdown power are built to make him pay for every entry. The plan is to pick the counter, not trade volume he cannot win. When the opening appears, Medic forces the clinch — his knees (rate 0.57) and elbows (0.21) are a phone-booth weapon Rodriguez never operates in — and once he lands clean, he follows straight to the floor and finishes with 90.4% ground accuracy rather than resetting and letting the marathon restart.
🚀 Daniel Rodriguez Key Advantages
Five rounds is Rodriguez's best friend and Medic's worst enemy. He gets busier in the championship-adjacent rounds (R3/R1 output 129% over a robust 10-fight sample) and averages 11:50 per fight, while Medic is "Low Output," has never fought past Round 3, and averages 4:37. Just as importantly, Rodriguez's primary defense against Medic's only fast path is durability: a "Good" chin that has been strike-stopped exactly once in 14 UFC fights (by the elite-level Ian Garry) and a 66.7% knockdown-recovery rate. He is purpose-built to survive an early storm — and surviving the storm is how you beat Uros Medic.
The volume gap is enormous: 7.20 SLpM (rank 3/54 — elite) against Medic's effective 3.5 strikes/min. If Medic doesn't land the bomb, Rodriguez out-lands him roughly two-to-one, and over five rounds that is a potentially overwhelming scorecard lead plus a steady accumulation of damage on an Average chin. He is also the more complete, more defensively reliable fighter — better takedown defense (64% vs 56%), a real clinch-takedown and scramble game against a man with two career submission losses, and a deeper, more battle-tested résumé topped by a quality decision win over Kevin Holland.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Rodriguez's 40% slow start collides with Medic's 0% slow start and rank-2 power in the opening five minutes — he eats a clean shot before he has warmed up and gets followed to the floor (Medic lands 32.2% of his R1 strikes on the ground at 90.4% accuracy) for the early KO. This is the single most probable individual outcome in the entire simulation, and it is why the first six minutes are the most dangerous of the night for him. The fight can end before the dynamics that favor Rodriguez ever come into play.
Rodriguez's rank-46 absorption (5.40 SApM) catches up to a 38-year-old chin: he tries to out-volume a sniper, walks onto the 61%-accuracy counter, and the durability that defined his career finally cracks. Age is the second wildcard — even his elite tank has never gone past Round 3, and at 38 the championship rounds are a genuine physiological gamble on a distance neither man has ever fought. Add a hostile Belgrade crowd swinging two close rounds on the cards, and a competitive fight can be scored to the home man.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Rodriguez's whole night hinges on the opening two rounds: tighten the early defense, respect the rank-2 power, and above all do not get dropped while warming up out of his 40% slow start. Every clean round survived early tilts the fight toward him. He should establish the jab behind his 3-inch reach edge (74" vs 71"), keep the exchanges at range where a cold, one-shot hunter is least effective, and lean on the "Good" chin to walk through the inevitable early adversity without panicking into a firefight.
Once past the danger zone, Rodriguez turns the fight into the marathon he owns: escalate output through Rounds 2–5 and make Medic fight at a 7.3/min pace he has never sustained. His targeting curve is the accumulation blueprint — body and legs early, then load up on the head late (53.9% → 69.3% head-rate across rounds) to wear the younger man's tank and finish the cracking chin in the championship rounds. If the striking gets dangerous, he can use the clinch and the takedown threat against Medic's 56% takedown defense to steal rounds outright.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
⏱️The Fight's Internal Clock
Strip everything else away and this is a clock fight. Medic's win equity is concentrated in Rounds 1–2 and decays every minute thereafter; Rodriguez's is low early and grows steadily into the championship rounds. Medic's 4:37 average fight time, 0% slow start, and rank-2 power define a front-loaded threat; Rodriguez's 11:50 average, 129% Round-3 output escalation, and "Good" chin define a back-loaded one. The five-round format hands Rodriguez the maximum possible runway to reach the part of the fight he owns — the single biggest structural reason the model lands where it does. The Belgrade crowd will roar for the early finish, but every minute past the first six bends the night toward the 38-year-old.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields: the slow-start collision and the volume-vs-power math. Medic owns power and precision — knockdown average rank 2/54, accuracy 61% (rank 5/54), damage ratio rank 7/54 — and absorbs little (3.50 SApM). Rodriguez owns volume and durability — 7.20 SLpM (rank 3/54), a "Good" chin, proven late-round escalation — but absorbs heavily (5.40 SApM, rank 46/54) and starts slow (40%). If exchanges are short and few, Medic wins them on per-shot lethality; if they are long and many, Rodriguez drowns him at 7.3 strikes per minute against Medic's 3.5. Over five rounds that gap is a potential 100-plus significant-strike differential if Medic cannot finish.
🧩The Unknown Rounds & Archetype
Neither man has ever fought a Round 4 or Round 5. For Rodriguez the inference is positive but age-tempered — proven through R3 on an elite tank, but 38 years old. For Medic it is a near-total void layered on a "Low Output" pace and an Average chin, the worst combination of attributes to carry into deep water for the first time. The archetype baseline (Muay Thai Fighter vs Technical Striker) leans 52.2% to Medic's class over a 521-fight sample — a real but slim opening-position edge that reflects his clinch/knee/power toolkit. It is a baseline his specific weaknesses (cardio, chin, low volume) erode as the fight lengthens, while Rodriguez's specific strengths (volume, durability, late escalation) compound: the archetype gives Medic the first ten minutes; the individual data gives Rodriguez the last fifteen.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely single outcome is Daniel Rodriguez by Decision (34%) — survive the early storm, out-volume Medic over five rounds, and win the cards, his structurally supported bread and butter. His KO/TKO path (14%) captures late-accumulation stoppages against a tiring, Average-chinned Medic in the championship rounds. Medic's counter is concentrated and violent: a 32% KO/TKO, by far the largest finishing cell in the fight, built on rank-2 power and Rodriguez's 40% slow start and rank-46 absorption — indeed a Medic Round-1 KO is the single most probable individual result despite Rodriguez being the overall favorite. Medic's decision path is just 13% (he has never won a decision), and submissions are a token 2%/5% split. Rodriguez 53%, Medic 47%.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 44% | Implied: 38.5%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 53% | Fair: -130
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 68% | Implied: 61.5%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overprices the home-country early KO – The market will likely install Medic as favorite; the model makes the durable volume man a slim favorite.
- • Undervalues championship-round volume – Rodriguez's 7.3/min pace and 129% late escalation compound over a five-round distance the market underweights.
- • Prices out the granite chin – One strike-stoppage in 14 UFC fights blunts Medic's only fast path and drags the fight into deep water.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Uros Medic
Primary path — rank-2 power on a slow starter
Rare — has never won a decision; needs the home cards
Token figure — zero career submission attempts
💥Outcome Distribution - Daniel Rodriguez
Bread and butter — out-volume over five rounds
Late accumulation on a tiring, Average chin
Functional scramble/clinch game; 4 career subs
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Uros Medic
- • First two rounds: Highest early-KO equity vs a 40% slow starter.
- • Precision counters: 61% accuracy and rank-2 power punish every entry.
- • Hurt then swarm: Follow to the floor; 90.4% ground accuracy closes.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Daniel Rodriguez
- • Escalating volume: 27 → 38 → 37 sig landed; busier as it goes.
- • Body early, head late: 53.9% → 69.3% head-rate wears the tank down.
- • Championship rounds: Proven 11:50 engine into deep water Medic has never seen.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A genuine but measured lean to Rodriguez — clear side, thin margin, enormous variance
✅Supporting Factors
- • Five-round format favors Rodriguez (7.3 vs 3.5 SLpM)
- • "Good" chin — strike-stopped once in 14 UFC fights
- • More complete: 64% vs 56% takedown defense
- • Better recent form: 3-fight streak (beat Holland)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Medic's rank-2 power ends any exchange early
- • Rodriguez's 40% slow start meets a 0% slow starter
- • Belgrade home crowd + unproven championship rounds
🏁Executive Summary
This fight is decided by the clock. In roughly 47 of 100 simulations, Uros Medic's power decides the night — most often (32%) by walking down a slow-starting Rodriguez in the first two rounds, landing the rank-2 knockdown shot, and following to the floor where his 90.4% ground accuracy ends it before his own cardio and the deep water ever matter. That is a very live 47%, lifted further by the Belgrade home crowd. In the other 53, Daniel Rodriguez's volume and durability take over: he weathers the early storm on a "Good" chin cracked only once in 14 fights, then turns the bout into the marathon he owns — escalating to 38 significant strikes a round, out-landing Medic two-to-one, and either grinding out the decision (34%) or breaking a tiring, Average-chinned finisher in the championship rounds (14%). At 38 he is the older man, but he is the one who has lived in deep water and whose engine is built for 25 minutes.
Prediction: Daniel Rodriguez is a slim favorite at 53% (Decision 34% most likely, late KO/TKO 14%); Medic's live 47% is concentrated in a fight-ending early-KO window (32%). Medic must finish inside two rounds — everything from his 4:37 average fight time to his 0% slow start to his 100% career finish rate screams urgency. If he does, he wins, possibly spectacularly, in front of his home crowd. If he can't, Rodriguez's relentless volume and granite chin drag this five-round main event into the deep water where, somehow, the 38-year-old is the safer bet.