UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs Onama - Event Fights, Analytics & Predictions
Saturday, November 1, 2025
Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
UFC APEX
completed15 Fights
Main Card: ESPN+
Prelims: ESPN+
Start Time: 7:00 PM ET
Prelims: 4:00 PM ET
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UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs Onama – Fights, Analytics & Predictions
⭐ Main Event
🟢
🥈 Co-Main Event
🔴
🟢
Women's Bantamweight
VS
Odds: —
Result: Decision - Split | R3 15:00
No picks yet
🔴
Kevin Christian
9-3-0
Light Heavyweight
VS
Odds: —
Result: Submission (Rear Naked Choke) | R1 03:33
No picks yet
Billy Elekana
9-2-0
🟡
Talita Alencar
7-1-1
Women's Strawweight
VS
Odds: —
Result: Submission (Rear Naked Choke) | R3 04:36
No picks yet
🟡
🔴
🔴
Featherweight
VS
Odds: —
Result: Submission (Rear Naked Choke) | R1 03:41
No picks yet
Yadier del Valle
10-0-0
🔴
Timmy Cuamba
10-3-0
Featherweight
VS
Odds: —
Result: Decision - Unanimous | R3 15:00
No picks yet
Chang Ho Lee
11-2-0
🔴
🟢
Jeremiah Wells
13-4-1
Welterweight
VS
Odds: —
Result: Decision - Unanimous | R3 15:00
No picks yet
Themba Gorimbo
14-6-0
🔴
Middleweight
VS
Odds: —
Result: Submission (Guillotine Choke) | R2 01:25
No picks yet
🟡
Catchweight (130 lb)
VS
Odds: —
Result: Submission (Anaconda Choke) | R2 03:13
No picks yet
Cody Durden
17-9-1
⛔ CANCELLED
🟡
⛔ CANCELLED
🔴
Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary
| Fight | Fighter A | Model Prob A | Market Odds A | Implied Prob A | Fighter B | Model Prob B | Market Odds B | Implied Prob B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Garcia vs Onama🟢 | Steve Garcia | 56% | — | — | David Onama | 44% | — | — |
Vieira vs Dumont🟢 | Ketlen Vieira | 36% | — | — | Norma Dumont | 64% | — | — |
Alencar vs Carnelossi🟡 | Talita Alencar | 64% | — | — | Ariane Carnelossi | 36% | — | — |
Ruiz vs Ardelean🟡 | Montserrat Ruiz | 32% | — | — | Alice Ardelean | 68% | — | — |
Wells vs Gorimbo🟢 | Jeremiah Wells | 34% | — | — | Themba Gorimbo | 66% | — | — |
Nascimento vs Durden🟡 | Allan Nascimento | 65% | — | — | Cody Durden | 35% | — | — |
Accuracy of our Picks
Note: These metrics are reference-only. We use flat staking of 1.00 unit per pick regardless of model confidence or probability. Historical units reflect this constant stake size.
80%
Prediction Accuracy (Overall)
4
Correct Predictions (Overall)
5
Total Setup Fights
+1.18u
Betting Units (Overall)
67%
Prediction Accuracy (Optimal)
2
Correct Predictions (Optimal)
3
Optimal Setup Fights
+0.33u
Betting Units (Optimal)
Correct Predictions (Optimal)
Steve Garcia vs David Onama
Pick: Steve Garcia (-135) | +0.74u
Result: KO/TKO (Punches)
Ketlen Vieira vs Norma Dumont
Pick: Norma Dumont (-170) | +0.59u
Result: Decision - Split
Incorrect Predictions (Optimal)
Jeremiah Wells vs Themba Gorimbo
Pick: Themba Gorimbo | -1.00u
Result: Decision - Unanimous
Moderate Risk Picks Summary
100%
Prediction Accuracy (Moderate)
2
Correct Predictions (Moderate)
2
Moderate Setup Fights
+0.85u
Betting Units (Moderate)
Correct Predictions (Moderate)
Talita Alencar vs Ariane Carnelossi
Pick: Talita Alencar (-210) | +0.48u
Result: Submission (Rear Naked Choke)
Allan Nascimento vs Cody Durden
Pick: Allan Nascimento (-270) | +0.37u
Result: Submission (Anaconda Choke)
Incorrect Predictions (Moderate)
None
Event Discussion
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Event Analytics Overview
15
Total Fights
3
Main Card Fights
8
Divisions