Manoel Sousa vs Richie Miranda
Lightweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Saturday, August 8, 2026 • Meta APEX, Las Vegas (25-foot Octagon)
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Manoel Sousa
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Richie Miranda
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Manoel Sousa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Bolaji Oki | W | KO/TKO (R3, 4:12) |
| 2025-08-27 | Cristian Pérez | W | KO/TKO (R3, 3:00) |
| 2025-03-28 | Lucas Barros | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-14 | Archie Colgan | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-22 | Tim Wilde | W | KO/TKO (R1, 4:48) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Richie Miranda
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Robert Varricchio | W | Submission (Bulldog Choke) (R2, 1:02) |
| 2025-08-22 | Ilay Barzilay | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2025-04-18 | Richie Lewis | W | KO/TKO (Ground and Pound) (R5, 2:04) |
| 2024-12-06 | Hugo Oyarzún | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-23 | Maycon Mendonça | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
🔴 High-Risk estimate-grade average of Striking Composite (~50 vs ~50) and Grappling Composite (~38 vs ~52) — Sousa's single verified UFC-fight numbers vs Miranda's regional-only rates. Not DB-computed. Treat every point of gap as directional noise, not a settled skill gulf.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Manoel Sousa Key Advantages
In a 🔴 High-Risk, data-poor lightweight prelim, the thinnest edge still matters: Sousa has already walked into the Octagon once and finished Bolaji Oki with a Performance of the Night KO (4:12, Round 3), while Miranda is a pure UFC debutant. One bout is nowhere near a firm sample — rates remain estimate-grade — but cage walkout, APEX lighting, and UFC-pace pressure are things Sousa has felt and finished through, and Miranda has not. That is the entire soft-lean thesis in one sentence: verified experience over an unproven regional title reign, however impressive that reign is.
Sousa's Brazilian pressure-striking identity — forward entries, one-punch power (the Oki KO on the résumé), and a career KO rate that verified data now puts at 64% — travels into a small APEX cage. UFC.com's official single-fight numbers (SLpM 4.15, StrAcc 45%) are n=1 but confirm the tape archetype: he wants to walk Miranda down and force exchanges. Against a debutant still finding Octagon composure, early pressure is the highest-equity soft lean.
Sousa does not need a single script. Prior dossiers show knockouts, submissions, and decisions — a flexible finishing tree versus a debutant whose defensive hierarchy under UFC pressure is unknown. In a coin-flip framing, optionality is an edge: if the pocket stalls, he can change levels; if the grappling stalls, he can return to pressure striking. Still 🔴 High-Risk — none of this is a firm model signal.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Miranda is the reigning, two-time-defending LFA lightweight champion, most recently retaining the belt with a submission win over Robert Varricchio (May 22, 2026) — a pressure grappler-striker identity with estimate-grade TD/15 (~2.0) and Sub/15 (~0.8). One clean chain wrestle into a finish and the "UFC experience" soft lean evaporates. Data poverty cuts both ways.
Miranda holds a +4" reach edge (74" vs 70") at even height. If he keeps Sousa on the end of entries and the debutant adrenaline surge is real, Sousa walks onto counters. One-fight UFC experience is a whisper of an edge — not armor against a two-time-defending LFA champion.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Sousa should treat Round 1 as the debut tax window — press, cut the APEX cage, and force Miranda to react before the reigning LFA champion finds composure. Feint-heavy entries matter: Miranda's finishing tools punish straight-line charges.
The soft lean dies if Miranda chains takedowns. Sousa must prioritize hips back, underhooks, and immediate stand-ups — then return to pressure striking. Deny the debutant's best regional weapon and let Octagon familiarity decide the rest. No firm model — damage control against the unknown.
🚀 Richie Miranda Key Advantages
Miranda enters as the reigning, two-time-defending LFA lightweight champion: he won the belt via TKO of Richie Lewis (Round 5), defended it via unanimous decision over Ilay Barzilay (Round 5), and defended it again via submission over Robert Varricchio. "El Machete" is a finisher / pressure grappler-striker with estimate-grade output (~4.5 SLpM). UFC translation is the entire 🔴 risk — but championship-fight finishing habits are real even when the sample is not Octagon-proven.
Miranda holds a clearer grappling composite edge (~52 vs Sousa's ~38) with higher projected TD rate and Sub/15 — Sousa's number is now anchored to his one verified UFC sample, where he landed 0 of 4 takedown attempts. Against a pressure striker who may overcommit on entries, chain wrestling into a submission is Miranda's clearest debut-upset path. Regional estimates only — label every number 🔴 High-Risk.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
First Octagon night is a known variance spike. If Miranda freezes under APEX lights while Sousa presses early, the LFA finishing résumé never gets a chance to speak. Soft lean to Sousa exists almost entirely because this scenario is common for 🔴 debutants — not because Sousa is a proven LW gatekeeper.
If Sousa stuffs the first two takedown attempts and answers with pressure combinations, Miranda can get stuck in a striking duel he did not want — estimate StrDef ~50% is not a shield. Failed entries in a 25-foot cage become cage-walking sequences that favor the man who has already fought in the UFC once.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Miranda should jab behind the +4" reach, force Sousa to cover distance, then chain into takedowns off blocked punches — the LFA finishing script. Debut nerves get quieter when the fight hits the mat in Round 1. Hunt the submission (Varricchio blueprint) rather than a pure kickboxing war.
Expect Sousa to press early. Miranda's job is to weather Round 1 without eating a fight-ending sequence, then impose grappling as the minutes accumulate. High uncertainty either way — no firm model.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Soft lean only — data-poor 🔴 High-Risk bout, no firm model
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
Meta APEX's 25-foot Octagon quietly favors pressure and early wrestling chains. For Sousa, less room helps him cut angles and impose Brazilian pressure striking before Miranda settles. For Miranda, the same small cage shortens the path into clinch and takedown attempts — the LFA finisher's preferred script. Structural nudge is ambiguous in a High-Risk debut bout: both archetypes want proximity. Cage size amplifies whoever wins the first scramble, not a settled style matchup.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Hard caveat: NO firm model. All rates are estimate-grade — Sousa's verified UFC.com sample is his single Oki bout, Miranda entirely regional (UFC debut). Soft lean Sousa 53% / Miranda 47% rests on Octagon experience versus Miranda's proven two-time LFA title-defense composure, not on stable composites. Striking looks near-even (~50 vs ~50); grappling estimate now tilts Miranda more clearly (~52 vs ~38) once Sousa's single-fight UFC takedown numbers (0 of 4 landed) replace the earlier blended estimate. Treat every point of gap as noise. Data poverty is the story.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three swing factors. First, debut tax — does Miranda freeze under APEX lights while Sousa presses? Second, wrestling translation — do Miranda's LFA takedowns and subs (Varricchio) survive UFC pace against Sousa's estimated TDD? Third, who wins the opening two minutes of rhythm: Sousa pressure striking vs Miranda reach-into-chain-wrestling. In a data void, early composure usually decides High-Risk prelims.
🏁Final Prediction
Soft distribution only (not a firm model): Sousa by KO/TKO (24%) — his most likely single path, given a career KO rate that verified data now puts at 64% — or by Decision (18%) if pressure and debut tax bite; Sousa by Submission (11%) if he changes levels late. Miranda by Decision (17%) if his championship-fight composure controls the pace, or by Submission (15%) or KO/TKO (15%) if his LFA finishing tools translate. Held with extreme humility — High-Risk, thin samples, priced small.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Soft lean 53% | High-Risk — no firm edge vs market
GOOD VALUE
Soft: 15% | reigning LFA champ's finishing tool — live but unproven in UFC
SLIGHT VALUE
Soft: ~72% | Both fighters' verified ledgers lean toward fights that outlast round 1
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • No firm model – Soft lean only. Sousa's lone UFC data point is a highlight KO with a Performance of the Night bonus, but he now carries a verified career loss and a 3-fight current streak; Miranda is a reigning, 2x-defending LFA champion on a 7-fight streak — high uncertainty either way.
- • 🔴 High-Risk throughout – Sousa 1 UFC bout, Miranda 0 UFC / debut. Market numbers will outrun the data.
- • Size tiny or pass – Estimate-grade rates only; 53/47 is a whisper, not a call. Small stakes only.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Manoel Sousa
His most likely single path — verified career KO rate is 64%
Pressure banks rounds if debut tax bites
Level-change finish if Miranda overcommits entries
💥Outcome Distribution - Richie Miranda
Proven title-fight composure controls the pace if striking stalls
Varricchio-style chain into a finish
LFA TKO tools if Sousa walks onto counters
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Richie Miranda
- • Chain wrestling: LFA TD/sub tools vs estimate-grade TDD — live upset path.
- • Reach entries: +4" keeps Sousa covering distance into counters.
- • Survive R1: Clear debut tax, then impose grappling minutes.
🎯Primary Path - Manoel Sousa
- • Early pressure: Exploit debut nerves in the opening five minutes.
- • Stuff & strike: Deny Miranda's grappling, return to pocket pressure.
- • Small cage cut-off: APEX space helps the man who has been here once.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
🔴 High-Risk soft lean only — no firm model, data poverty
✅Supporting Factors
- • Sousa has 1 UFC bout; Miranda has 0 (debut tax)
- • Sousa's lone UFC sample is a Performance of the Night KO
- • Pressure-striking toolkit fits the small APEX cage
- • Soft lean only — experience edge, not a gulf
⚠️Risk Factors
- • 🔴 High-Risk: Sousa 1 UFC, Miranda debut (0 UFC)
- • Miranda is a reigning, 2x-defending LFA champion (W7)
- • Sousa carries a verified career loss and a W3 current streak
- • Grappling estimate tilts Miranda more clearly; TDD unproven
🏁Executive Summary
This lightweight prelim is a data-void by design: Manoel Sousa (14-1, 1 UFC bout — a Performance of the Night KO of Bolaji Oki) versus Richie "El Machete" Miranda (13-1, reigning 2x-defending LFA lightweight champion, UFC debut). There is NO firm model — only a soft lean of Sousa 53% / Miranda 47%. Reasoning: Sousa's sole UFC data point is an emphatic finish, but he now carries a verified career loss (to Archie Colgan) and a 3-fight current streak, while Miranda's corrected record shows a battle-tested champion with two verified 5-round title-fight showings, not a generic hot-streak prospect — high uncertainty either way. Label 🔴 High-Risk throughout. Estimate composites are near-even on the feet with a clearer grappling lean to Miranda; treat them as directional noise. Across a humble 100-fight thought experiment, roughly 53 outcomes favor Sousa via finishing power and Octagon familiarity; roughly 47 favor Miranda if his proven championship composure and LFA finishing habits translate on night one.
Soft lean: Manoel Sousa at 53% — a whisper, not a call. Prefer small stakes or a pass. Miranda remains fully live as a proven champion with recent finishes and defenses (SUB Varricchio, TKO Lewis, decision over Barzilay). Price the uncertainty first.