Mateusz Rębecki vs Kyle Prepolec
Lightweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
Saturday, August 1, 2026 • Belgrade Arena, Belgrade, Serbia
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Mateusz Rębecki
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Kyle Prepolec
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Mateusz Rębecki
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Grant Dawson | L | Submission (RNC) (R3, 4:42) |
| 2025-10-25 | Ľudovít Klein | L | Decision (Majority) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-08-02 | Chris Duncan | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-26 | Myktybek Orolbai | W | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-11 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | L | TKO (Punches) (R3, 4:51) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Kyle Prepolec
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | Drew Dober | L | KO/TKO (R3, 1:16) |
| 2025-05-10 | Benoît Saint Denis | L | Submission (Arm-Triangle) (R2, 2:35) |
| 2024-06-08 | Gustavo Wurlitzer | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:04) |
| 2023-04-23 | Josh Henry | W | KO/TKO (R1, 2:14) |
| 2022-10-22 | Marco Antonio Elpidio | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:23) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (74.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (80.0 vs 58.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Mateusz Rębecki Key Advantages
Rębecki's 5.3 significant strikes landed per minute is more than 50% higher than Prepolec's 3.4, and the gap widens on the ground — a 3.0-per-15 takedown rate against a fighter who attempts almost none of his own (0.5). This is a fighter built to make Prepolec fight in fifteen-second increments he isn't used to: constant forward pressure, combinations in bunches, and a level change the moment the boxing opens a lane. Over three rounds, that output compounds fast against a counter-puncher who prefers measured exchanges at range.
Seven of Rębecki's twenty career wins have come by submission, built over seven successful FEN title defenses on the mat as much as on the feet — and his estimated 80 grappling composite dwarfs Prepolec's 58. Prepolec's own takedown defense is average at best (50%, estimated) and he attempts almost no offensive wrestling of his own, meaning he has little history defending sustained top pressure. If Rębecki's boxing gets him to the clinch or the fence, the FEN champion's real finishing instincts are live.
Strip away the emotion of Rębecki's own skid and the level gap is stark: Kyle Prepolec has never won a fight inside the Octagon across two separate stints — four appearances (Taleb, Hubbard, Saint Denis, Dober), four losses. Rębecki, even in defeat, has spent his last three fights across the cage from Chris Duncan, Ľudovít Klein and Grant Dawson — competitive, ranked-adjacent UFC lightweights. A rough patch against that level of competition is a very different signal than an 0-4 UFC ledger.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Prepolec's four-inch reach and three-inch height advantage let a boxing-based counter-striker operate at exactly the range Rębecki has to close through, and Rębecki has been hurt by the shot that arrives on the way in before — Carlos Diego Ferreira stopped him with punches in the third round in 2024. If Prepolec can time the entry rather than get walked down flush, his ten career knockouts are a live, fight-ending threat regardless of the stat sheet.
Rębecki hasn't won since October 2024, dropping decisions to Duncan and Klein before getting finished by Grant Dawson's rear-naked choke in May 2026 — a genuine three-fight skid against real UFC lightweights. A fighter fighting off the back foot of consecutive defeats can press or overreach against a live puncher, and a fourth straight loss, even against a winless opponent, would put a former hot prospect in real jeopardy of losing his roster spot.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Rębecki's identity is pressure — close range immediately, work behind a high output of combinations, and never let Prepolec find a comfortable, measured distance to counter from. Every minute he allows Prepolec to dictate range off the jab and the four-inch reach edge is a minute he's fighting the wrong fight; the volume has to start in the first thirty seconds, not build into it.
Once the boxing has Prepolec's hands occupied, Rębecki's 3.0 TD/15 min and BJJ background become the finishing tool: change levels off combinations, put a below-average defensive wrestler (50% TDDef, estimated) on his back, and hunt the choke or armlock that has closed out seven of his career wins rather than fighting purely for headline strikes.
🚀 Kyle Prepolec Key Advantages
Prepolec gets a rare frame advantage against Rębecki — three inches taller, four inches longer, and genuinely heavy hands: ten of his eighteen career wins have come by knockout, including a highlight-reel spinning back fist. A boxing-and-kickboxing background off a high-school wrestling foundation gives him the tools to control range behind the jab and land the single check-hook or counter that ends fights against a shorter man walking forward in a straight line.
Rębecki arrives having lost three straight — a unanimous decision to Chris Duncan, a majority decision to Ľudovít Klein, and a third-round submission to Grant Dawson, two of those three decided by the judges in tight, momentum-swinging rounds. Whatever Prepolec's own 0-4 UFC mark says about him, he isn't fighting the version of Rębecki who beat Roosevelt Roberts and Myktybek Orolbai; he's fighting a fighter who hasn't had his hand raised in twenty-one months.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Prepolec settles into the counter-punching rhythm that just got him finished, Rębecki's forward pace and 5.3 SLpM output can simply drown him the way Drew Dober's pressure did in October 2025 — a low-output striker with a diminished gas tank at 36 does not have an obvious answer for fifteen straight minutes of combinations and level changes.
Prepolec offers almost no offensive wrestling (0.5 TD/15, estimated) and his takedown defense is unremarkable; against a 3.0 TD/15 fighter with a live submission rate, the mat is a real danger zone. It is also familiar territory — Benoît Saint Denis put him down and finished him with an arm-triangle choke in his most recent return to the Octagon, and Rębecki's grappling résumé is deeper and more credentialed.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Prepolec's clearest path is to make this a kickboxing match at the end of his jab — use the four-inch reach to pepper Rębecki on entries, circle away from the fence, and refuse to let a shorter pressure fighter close the distance for free. Every exchange fought at range instead of in the pocket is an exchange that favors the bigger man's power.
Knowing a third straight setback likely ends his UFC run, Prepolec has to treat every level change as a five-alarm defensive priority, sprawl hard, and scramble back to his feet rather than accept top position. He has gone the distance in roughly half of his career fights and owns a live finishing lane of his own — his job is to survive the volume and grappling threat long enough for one clean shot to land.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
📊A Lopsided Statistical Profile
Set side by side, the model numbers for this fight are about as one-sided as any lightweight prelim on the card — Rębecki holds an edge in every meaningful category: 56% more output (5.3 vs 3.4 SLpM), six times the takedown rate (3.0 vs 0.5 TD/15), more than double the submission rate (0.9 vs 0.4 SubPer15), and a 22-point gap in estimated grappling composite (80 vs 58). Both fighters' per-minute rate stats are estimates rather than confirmed UFCStats figures — sources disagree on the exact numbers for both men — but the direction and size of every gap point the same way.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Two battlefields decide this fight. On the feet, Rębecki's forward-pressure volume boxing runs into Prepolec's longer, more measured counter-striking — Prepolec's four-inch reach and genuine one-punch power (ten of eighteen wins by knockout) are real, but he has to find range and time entries against a fighter who simply throws more. On the mat, there is little contest on paper: Rębecki's BJJ-built submission game and 3.0 TD/15 rate face a fighter who rarely attempts takedowns of his own and was finished on the ground in his most recent Octagon appearance.
🧩The Skid vs. The Ceiling
Both fighters carry a losing streak into Belgrade, and they are not the same shape. Rębecki has lost three straight, but to Chris Duncan, Ľudovít Klein and Grant Dawson — three live UFC lightweights, two of the losses decided by the judges in competitive fights. Prepolec is winless in four UFC appearances across two stints five years apart, including a pair of releases in 2019-2020 before his 2025 return. A rough patch against good competition and a career-long inability to win at this level are different signals, and the model treats them that way.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely single outcome is Mateusz Rębecki by Decision (32%) — out-work Prepolec over three rounds behind volume and occasional control time, the same shape of fight that has actually beaten Rębecki in his last two losses, only reversed. His submission path (23%) is a real, not token, figure given the grappling gap and Prepolec's modest takedown defense. Prepolec's own path runs almost entirely through one punch: a 19% KO/TKO probability built on his reach, power and Rębecki's history of getting caught coming forward, with a 9% decision path if he can box from range for three full rounds.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 23% | Implied: 19.0%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 70% | Fair: -233
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 59% | Implied: 52.4%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Underprices the grappling mismatch – A 3.0 TD/15, submission-heavy attacker against a fighter with almost no offensive wrestling is a bigger structural edge than a moderate favorite line typically reflects.
- • Overweights Rębecki's recent form – Three straight losses look worse on a record than they read on tape; all three came against live UFC lightweights (Duncan, Klein, Dawson), not journeymen.
- • Underprices Prepolec's 0-4 UFC ledger – Four appearances, four losses across two stints is a steeper hill than his regional résumé and reach advantage suggest.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Mateusz Rębecki
Primary path — pressure and volume over three rounds
Live threat — 80 grappling composite vs modest TDDef
Forward pressure finds the finish
💥Outcome Distribution - Kyle Prepolec
Live dog — reach, power, catching Rębecki coming forward
Box from range for three rounds and steal a scorecard
Near-token — no credible offensive grappling of his own
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Mateusz Rębecki
- • Volume avalanche: 5.3 SLpM and nonstop pressure from the opening bell.
- • Level changes: 3.0 TD/15 turns boxing exchanges into control time.
- • Live finish: 0.9 SubPer15 and a FEN title pedigree close out scrambles.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Kyle Prepolec
- • Range control: +4in reach keeps the shorter man on the end of punches.
- • One-punch power: 10 of 18 career wins by knockout.
- • Championship minutes: gone the distance in roughly half of his career fights.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A clear favorite on the numbers, held with real respect for Rębecki's live three-fight skid
✅Supporting Factors
- • Statistical edge across every category — output, takedown rate, submission rate, both composites
- • Prepolec is winless across four UFC appearances in two separate stints (0-4-0)
- • Rębecki's three losses came against live UFC lightweights (Duncan, Klein, Dawson), not fringe opposition
- • Three-year age edge (33 vs 36) plus a takedown/submission game that can neutralize the reach gap
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Rębecki hasn't won since October 2024 — a genuine three-fight skid, not a blip
- • Prepolec's reach, height and one-punch power (10 KO/TKOs) give him a live finishing lane
- • A shorter fighter closing distance on a longer counter-striker fits the shape of two of Rębecki's recent finish losses
🏁Executive Summary
The numbers favor Mateusz Rębecki about as clearly as any fight on this card, and the record book adds a second layer: Kyle Prepolec has never won inside the Octagon, going 0-4 across two stints five years apart, most recently dropping back-to-back fights to Benoît Saint Denis and Drew Dober. In roughly 70 of 100 simulations Rębecki's volume, pressure and live submission threat take over — most often by out-working Prepolec to a Decision (32%), frequently by dragging the fight to the mat and finishing (23%), and occasionally by simply overwhelming him on the feet before the final bell (15%). In the other 30, Prepolec's frame does the work: he uses the four-inch reach edge to box from range, times an entry, and lands the single power shot that has produced ten of his eighteen career knockouts — the same puncher's chance that lives in every fight against a shorter, forward-moving opponent.
Prediction: Mateusz Rębecki is a clear favorite at 70% (Decision 32% most likely, Submission 23% a genuine live path); Prepolec's best equity is concentrated in an early-to-mid KO/TKO (19%) off his reach and power. Rębecki has to press the pace and put Prepolec on the defensive immediately — every minute Prepolec dictates range from the outside is a minute that favors the bigger man. A clear lean, held with respect for a live puncher and a fighter working through his own rough stretch (6/10).