Charles Johnson vs Jose Ochoa
Flyweight Bout • UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Saturday, August 15, 2026 • Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Charles Johnson
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Jose Ochoa
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Charles Johnson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Asu Almabayev | L | Submission - Suloev Stretch (R3, 3:33) |
| 2026-03-14 | Bruno Silva | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2026-01-24 | Alex Perez | L | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 3:16) |
| 2025-08-23 | Lone'er Kavanagh | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R2, 4:35) |
| 2025-03-01 | Ramazan Temirov | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Jose Ochoa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Clayton Carpenter | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-07-26 | Asu Almabayev | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-06-14 | Cody Durden | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R2, 0:11) |
| 2024-11-23 | Lone'er Kavanagh | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-03 | Juscelino Pantoja | W | Submission - Anaconda Choke (R1, 4:30) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (58 vs 50) and Grappling Composite (55 vs 44). Johnson is the higher-volume, more heavily-tested striker over 12 sampled Octagon fights; Ochoa's UFC knockdown rate (0.43) actually edges Johnson's (0.38) on a fraction of the sample — real power, thin proof.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Charles Johnson Key Advantages
Johnson is two inches taller and three inches longer in reach — meaningful margins at 125 pounds — and he backs it with a genuine professional-boxing background that sharpens his footwork and distance management. His switch stance never lets Ochoa settle into a comfortable read. If he fights at the end of his strikes, Ochoa has to walk through real geometry to get his power off, and Johnson's 50% striking accuracy over a 12-fight UFC sample says he punishes exactly that kind of forward pressure when it arrives without setup.
Fifteen Octagon fights to Ochoa's four; twenty-eight pro fights to eleven. Johnson has shared the cage with Muhammad Mokaev, Joshua Van, Alex Perez and Asu Almabayev — a murderer's row relative to Ochoa's résumé — and 13 of his 15 UFC fights have gone to or through Round 3. Composure in a close, ugly third round is not evenly distributed between a 15-fight veteran and a fighter with four Octagon appearances.
4.73 SLpM at 50% accuracy is a genuinely elite output for the division, and Johnson's whole UFC identity is built on out-working opponents — 5 of his 8 UFC wins are by decision. Better still against this specific opponent: his two UFC knockouts (Flick, Kavanagh) both came off timed counters against fighters pressing forward, exactly the shape of attack a Chute Boxe pressure-puncher like Ochoa brings.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
For 26 pro fights Johnson had never been finished. In his last three UFC outings he has been finished twice — TKO'd by Alex Perez's counter left hook in January 2026, then submitted for the first time ever via Suloev stretch by Asu Almabayev in June 2026. Ochoa's power (0.43 UFC knockdown average, 78% career KO rate) is aimed directly at a target that has shown, twice in seven months, that it can be hurt.
Johnson absorbs real UFC volume (3.78 SApM, 57% defense), and the same relentless forward pressure that let Almabayev dominate two rounds before finishing him could just as easily let Ochoa's Chute Boxe aggression pile up damage. Three tough UFC fights in twelve months (Perez, Silva, Almabayev) plus this one is real accumulated wear on a 35-year-old.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use the full three-inch reach and switch-stance angles to keep Ochoa on the end of punches rather than letting him set his feet and load up. Volume over power — lean on the 4.73 SLpM profile that has carried a decade of decision wins, busy hands rather than a single-knockout hunt.
Respect the power without abandoning offense — circle off the center line, make Ochoa miss and pay the way Flick and Kavanagh did, and treat every exchange as live given the Perez and Almabayev tape. Thirteen of his last fifteen UFC fights have gone to or through Round 3 — his path to a decision runs through pace management, not a shootout.
🚀 Jose Ochoa Key Advantages
This is the entire case for the underdog, and it is real. Seven of Ochoa's nine wins are by strikes (89% career finish rate), including an 11-second starching of Cody Durden, and his UFC knockdown average (0.43) actually exceeds Johnson's (0.38) despite a fraction of the sample. That power now faces a 35-year-old who has been finished by strikes and by grappling pressure in his last three fights.
A full decade younger, and never finished in eleven pro fights — including two full 15-minute UFC fights against wrestle-heavy control fighters (Kavanagh, Almabayev). His Chute Boxe forward-pressure system is built to erase range and keep coming, the one thing Johnson's own recently-cracked durability least wants to face for three rounds.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Johnson's three-inch reach and switch-stance footwork keep him at range for 15 minutes — exactly the outside-fighting formula that has beaten Ochoa's style before, since both his UFC losses came against fighters who controlled range and positioning rather than brawling. His thin UFC sample (4 fights) is exposed against a fighter with vastly more live rounds and faster in-fight adjustments.
Johnson's own best UFC weapon is a timed counter against forward pressure — exactly what beat Flick and Kavanagh. If Ochoa presses without setup while hunting the finish, he risks walking directly into the one attack pattern Johnson has proven he can time and punish inside the Octagon.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Ochoa cannot win a 15-minute kickboxing match at range against a longer, more accurate boxer — the fight must be fought on his terms, inside Johnson's reach. Every one of his UFC and career finishes has come in Round 1 or Round 2, so the opening two rounds are his real window.
Sustained pressure and clean power shots are the exact recipe that finished Johnson twice in his last three fights. If the finish doesn't come early, his Carpenter win proved he can execute a gameplan and win rounds on output — and being a decade fresher should tell in a competitive third round.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️The Cracking Veteran vs. the Live-Handed Prospect
This is not a standard prime-veteran-vs-green-prospect story, because the veteran's foundation just visibly cracked. For a decade, 35-year-old Charles Johnson's identity was built on a durability no opponent had broken — every one of his first nine losses came by decision, never a finish. That streak ended twice in his last three UFC fights: TKO'd by Alex Perez in January 2026, then submitted for the first time ever by Asu Almabayev's rare Suloev stretch in June 2026. Across the cage is Jose Ochoa, a 25-year-old Chute Boxe pressure-puncher with an 89% career finish rate and only four Octagon fights, whose real question is whether power that has starched regional and journeyman opposition also works on a much higher caliber of opponent. Both halves of this equation are genuinely uncertain.
🎯Technical Breakdown — The Arithmetic
On paper the arithmetic favors Johnson. He out-reaches Ochoa by three inches, out-volumes him (4.73 vs 3.01 SLpM at 50% vs 38% accuracy), and has 15 Octagon fights of championship-rounds experience against four. Neither man wrestles much (0.56 vs 0.43 TD/15), so this is very likely contested standing, where Johnson's volume and accuracy should tell over three rounds. The tension is sharp: Ochoa's UFC knockdown average (0.43) and career 78% KO rate are real power signals even on a tiny sample, and they are aimed at a fighter who has now been finished twice by exactly this kind of pressure. If Johnson's craft controls range, the numbers say he wins comfortably; if Ochoa's power lands clean the way it has seven times before, the fight can end in seconds regardless of the résumé gap.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three battles decide it: whether Johnson's reach and boxing craft can keep Ochoa on the outside for 15 minutes, whether Ochoa's forward pressure reproduces the exact failure mode that ended the Perez and Almabayev fights, and the experience gap in a close third round. Johnson's own finish-timing pattern says 13 of his 15 UFC fights have gone to or through Round 3 — he is built for exactly this kind of grinding contest. Ochoa's UFC pattern is more bimodal: his lone Octagon finish came in 11 seconds, but his other three fights all went the full 15 minutes. If Ochoa doesn't find an early finish, his own tape says the fight is very likely to reach the scorecards, where Johnson's volume and accuracy carry real weight.
🏁Final Prediction
The single most likely outcome is Charles Johnson by Decision (28%) — his volume-and-craft identity (5 of 8 UFC wins are decisions) against a fighter with only one UFC decision win. His KO/TKO path (21%) reflects real counter-punching ability against forward pressure, the same shape of attack that fell to his finishes of Flick and Kavanagh; a modest submission share (8%) is a rounding-level path given zero UFC submission wins in 15 fights. Ochoa's single most likely outcome — and the entire case for the upset — is his KO/TKO (27%), built on a 0.43 UFC knockdown average and a 78% career finish rate aimed directly at a chin that has failed twice in seven months. The fight is a race between Johnson's volume and Ochoa's power, and while Johnson's path is wider and more sustainable, Ochoa's fastest route to victory is nearly as probable as anything else on the board.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
No BetOnline market line was found for this bout at compile time (12 days out on a deep prelim). The figures below are the model's own fair line — not scraped market odds.
MAXIMUM VALUE (IF MARKET OVERRATES JOHNSON)
Model: 27% (his single most likely outcome — 0.43 UFC KD avg and a 78% career KO rate aimed at a chin finished twice in seven months)
GOOD VALUE
Model: 28% (the favorite's single likeliest outcome — 5 of 8 UFC wins are decisions against a fighter with only one)
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 60% combined finish rate — both men's recent tape (Johnson's two 2026 finish losses, Ochoa's 89% career finish rate) points away from a clean decision
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • A market could easily underprice Ochoa's power – If public perception leans on Johnson's 15-fight résumé and reach and installs him closer to -180/-200, it likely underweights a 25-year-old with a UFC knockdown rate that already exceeds Johnson's, aimed at a chin broken twice in 2026.
- • Over-prices a clean Johnson decision – His volume and reach are real, but against a live puncher on a freshly-exposed chin, a comfortable decision is no lock; the model has it at only 28%, not a heavy favorite's number.
- • Respects the sample-size gap – Ochoa's UFC tape is four fights deep. Whatever edge Johnson's résumé implies should be real but moderate, not commanding, which is exactly how the 57/43 model line is built.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Charles Johnson
Primary path — 5 of 8 UFC wins are decisions; volume and reach over 3 rounds
Timed counters against forward pressure — the Flick/Kavanagh blueprint
Rounding-level path — zero UFC submission wins in 15 Octagon fights
💥Outcome Distribution - Jose Ochoa
His entire case — 0.43 UFC KD avg, 78% career KO rate, aimed at a cracked chin
Proven he can win rounds (Carpenter) if the finish doesn't come early
Minimal path — one career anaconda choke, zero submission wins in the UFC
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Path to Victory - Charles Johnson
- • Survive the power early: Ochoa's finishes have all come in Round 1 or 2 — the window to respect most.
- • Win the geometry: three inches of reach and switch-stance footwork take over the longer it stays standing.
- • Trust the cards: 5 of 8 UFC wins are decisions against a fighter with only one UFC decision win.
🎯Finish Window - Jose Ochoa
- • Rounds 1–2 are everything: 0.43 UFC KD avg and a 78% career KO rate, almost all finishes come early.
- • Target the proven crack: sustained pressure and clean power — the exact recipe that finished Johnson twice in his last three fights.
- • Don't abandon Plan B: his Carpenter win proved he can execute a gameplan for a full 15 minutes.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A real but moderate lean to Johnson — Ochoa's power is a live, ever-present equalizer aimed at a freshly-cracked chin
✅Supporting Factors
- • Three-inch reach & two-inch height edge, backed by a genuine pro-boxing background
- • Experience gap: 15 UFC fights and 28 pro fights vs Ochoa's 4 and 11
- • Better-tested takedown defense (67% over 12 fights vs Ochoa's 59% over 3)
- • His two UFC knockouts (Flick, Kavanagh) both came off timed counters vs forward pressure
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Johnson has been finished twice in his last three fights (TKO by Perez, submission by Almabayev) after never being finished in his first 26 pro fights
- • Ochoa's UFC knockdown avg (0.43) already exceeds Johnson's (0.38) on a tiny sample
- • Johnson is 35, a decade older, absorbing his heaviest UFC workload in years
- • Ochoa's UFC sample is only 4 fights — his true level is genuinely uncertain
🏁Executive Summary
Across 100 simulations the fight resolves into two clean, opposing stories. In roughly 57 of them, Charles Johnson's reach, volume and championship-rounds experience carry the night — either by keeping the fight at range and out-working a much less experienced opponent over three rounds (his single most likely outcome, a 28% decision), or by timing a counter off Ochoa's forward pressure the way he timed Flick and Kavanagh (21% KO/TKO). Thirteen of his last fifteen UFC fights have gone to or through Round 3 — he is built for exactly this kind of grinding contest. In the other 43, Jose Ochoa does the one thing his tape says he does best: closes distance early and lands the kind of clean power that has finished 78% of his career opponents (27% KO/TKO, his single most likely outcome and nearly as probable as Johnson's own decision path) — the same profile that has now finished Johnson twice in his last three fights. He does not need a complicated gameplan; he needs the power that starched Cody Durden in 11 seconds to land once more.
Prediction: Johnson by Decision most likely (28% probability) through his reach, volume and vastly deeper championship-rounds résumé; Ochoa's fastest path to the upset is his KO/TKO (27%), nearly identical in probability, built on real power aimed at a chin that has cracked twice in 2026. This is a race between a veteran's sustainable volume and a prospect's single fastest weapon — and while Johnson's overall path is wider, Ochoa's is almost exactly as loaded.