Marcus McGhee vs Benardo Sopaj – UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

Marcus McGhee

11W2L

Layered Striker

Benardo Sopaj

13W3L

Chain Wrestler

McGhee's striking rhythm against Sopaj's connected wrestling

BantamweightDelta Center, Salt Lake City, UtahOctober 3, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon · prelim bantamweight

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

McGhee wants to fight at range, stringing combinations while the distance is his and resetting after every entry. Sopaj uses his striking to create contact, then chains attempts at the fence and turns control into submission threats, the template behind his finish of Timmy Cuamba. McGhee is rarely taken down, but one lost transition can outweigh several striking rounds, so the second shot matters more than the first.

Paths that change the fight

Marcus McGheeKeep space for combinations, defend consecutive entries, and reset before the next attack.
Benardo SopajCreate contact through strikes, chain attempts at the fence, and turn control into an attacking position.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10

Sopaj averages 2.43 takedowns and 0.81 submissions per fifteen.
The Cuamba submission shows the finish is real.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Marcus McGhee

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 55%
Fair odds: -122

Reference quote: -145 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.82

Benardo Sopaj

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 45%
Fair odds: +122

Reference quote: +125 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.22

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, simulation buckets, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

McGhee answered his only UFC loss, to Petr Yan, by beating John Yannis, while Sopaj, ten years younger, has won twice since his lone Octagon defeat. The question is whether a rangy rhythm striker who is almost never taken down can keep a chain wrestler from turning the fight into scrambles. McGhee has never been knocked down in the UFC and his recent wins have gone the distance, while Sopaj does most of his finishing early. The swing factor is Sopaj's own power: with head-kick knockouts on his record, McGhee cannot focus solely on the takedown.

Marcus McGhee

Attribute

Benardo Sopaj

Age

Ten-year gap26

5' 8"+2" McGhee

Height

5' 6"

69"+3" McGhee

Reach

66"

38"

Leg Reach

37"

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

11-2-0

Pro Record

13-3-0

5-1 (6 bouts)

UFC Record

2-1 (3 bouts)

Rhythm striker

Fighting Style

Wrestling chains

McGhee is taller with a three-inch reach edge at bantamweight. Sopaj's submission threat stays live even against McGhee's 90% takedown defence.

Venue Factor
Three rounds favour McGhee if he wins minutes at range and sprawls with an exit. Sopaj needs chained entries — one lost transition can matter more than several clean striking exchanges.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Marcus McGhee

Pro Record

11-2-0

UFC Record

5-1 across six UFC bouts

Streak

Win — decision over John Yannis (Jun 2026)

Finish Rate

8 KO/TKO and 1 submission win

Avg Fight Time

10:29 (6 UFC bouts)

Chin · Never knocked down in six UFC boutsSOS · UFC bantamweightRhythm striker

McGhee is 11-2 overall and 5-1 across six UFC fights. The last five are a decision over John Yannis, a decision loss to Petr Yan, a decision over Jonathan Martinez, a knockout of Gaston Bolanos, and a knockout of JP Buys.

Benardo Sopaj

Pro Record

13-3-0

UFC Record

2-1 across three UFC bouts

Streak

Two wins — submission of Timmy Cuamba (May 2026)

Finish Rate

7 KO/TKO and 4 submission wins

Avg Fight Time

12:22 (3 UFC bouts)

Chin · Average — one knockdown absorbed, one KO lossSOS · UFC bantamweightWrestler

Sopaj is 13-3 overall and 2-1 across three UFC fights: submission of Timmy Cuamba, decision over Ricky Turcios, third-round knockout loss to Vinicius Oliveira.

Marcus McGhee

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Benardo Sopaj

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Marcus McGheesignature weapons

Punching powerEight KO/TKO wins, including JP Buys (R1) and Gaston Bolanos (R2) in the UFC; 0.72 knockdowns per fifteen

×8

Rear-naked chokeSecond-round finish of Journey Newson in his UFC debut

×1

Benardo Sopajsignature weapons

Strikes and head kicksSeven KO/TKO wins, two of them with head kicks; 0.81 knockdowns per fifteen

×7

SubmissionsRear-naked choke of Timmy Cuamba (R2, May 2026) plus three earlier submissions; 0.81 attempts per fifteen

×4

Marcus McGhee

John Yannis

Decision

Opponent context: veteran

UFC Fight Night — Jun 2026

Petr Yan

Decision

Opponent context: elite

UFC on ABC — Jul 2025

Jonathan Martinez

Decision

Opponent context: veteran

UFC 309 — Nov 2024

Gaston Bolanos

KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

UFC Fight Night — Jan 2024

JP Buys

KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

UFC on ESPN — Aug 2023

Pattern

McGhee’s last five are three decisions and two knockouts, with the only loss a decision to Petr Yan.

Benardo Sopaj

Timmy Cuamba

Submission

Opponent context: prospect

UFC Fight Night — May 2026

Ricky Turcios

Decision

Opponent context: veteran

UFC 311 — Jan 2025

Vinicius Oliveira

KO/TKO

Opponent context: veteran

UFC Fight Night — Mar 2024

Pattern

Sopaj’s three UFC fights are a submission of Cuamba, a decision over Turcios, and a knockout loss to Oliveira.

Marcus McGhee

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Benardo Sopaj

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Career win ledger: McGhee 8 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 2 decisions of 11 wins, with his finishes spread across all three rounds. Sopaj 7 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 2 decisions of 13 wins — seven of them inside the first round, though his only UFC finish came in round two.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Marcus	Benardo
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	UFC bantamweight — Decision loss to Petr Yan in July 2025	UFC bantamweight — Decision win over Ricky Turcios; KO loss to Vinicius Oliveira
UFC sample	5-1 across six UFC bouts	2-1 across three UFC bouts
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	1 elite · 2 veteran tier	0 elite · 2 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (9 vs 5 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponents	John Yannis, Petr Yan, Jonathan Martinez	Timmy Cuamba, Ricky Turcios, Vinicius Oliveira

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

Marcus

Benardofew UFC fights

McGhee 5.44 landed and 3.64 absorbed. Sopaj 4.39 landed, 58% accuracy, and 4.69 absorbed. Sopaj’s line is three UFC fights.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

Marcus

Benardofew UFC fights

Sopaj 2.43 takedowns and 0.81 submission attempts. McGhee’s counter is 90% takedown defence, with only 0.24 attempts of his own.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

Marcus

Benardofew UFC fights

Level on paper: McGhee’s striking edge — volume and lower absorption, not accuracy — offsets Sopaj’s grappling edge.

Cardio

—

Marcusfew UFC fights

Benardofew UFC fights

McGhee is 36 and Sopaj is 26; McGhee has gone fifteen minutes in three of his last five, so the cardio read stays even.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0

Marcus

0.0

Benardofew UFC fights

Level composites. The McGhee 55/45 lean comes from volume, absorption and takedown defence; conviction stays 4/10 because Sopaj's rates come from three UFC fights.

Metric	Marcus	Benardo
Strikes landed / min	5.44	4.39
Strikes absorbed / min	3.64	4.69
TD Defence	90%	77%
Takedowns / 15	0.24	2.43
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	3-round bout	3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Rhythm Striker 55%45% Chain Wrestler

MMA Analytics model lean · 55/45 lean to McGhee. McGhee 5.44 SLpM and 90% takedown defence. Sopaj 2.43 takedowns and 0.81 submissions per fifteen.

Marcus McGheeBenardo Sopaj

Bantamweight

· 55 fighters

No comparable division benchmark is published for this sample. These values describe each fighter; no division rank is assigned.

Stat	Marcus	Benardo
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	5.44	4.39
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	44%	58%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	56%	53%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	3.64	4.69
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.24	2.43
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	90%	77%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.24	0.81
KD/15	0.72	0.81

Statistical Verdict
Bantamweight rates side by side. McGhee leads volume and takedown defence. Sopaj leads takedowns and submissions.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Marcus McGhee

Six UFC bouts. Recent results: decision over Yannis, decision loss to Yan, decision over Martinez, knockout of Bolanos (R2), knockout of Buys (R1).
Round two is his peak: 29.4 landed on average, with two of his three UFC knockdowns and two of his three UFC finishes.
He fights almost entirely at range — 88% to 98% of his landed strikes come at distance, and control time falls to 5 seconds by R3.
Three of his six UFC fights went the full fifteen minutes.

Benardo Sopaj

Three UFC bouts; two reached round three.
Control is the identity: 68 seconds in R1 and 80 in R2, with 57% of his R2 strikes landed on the mat.
Accuracy runs 53% to 64% per round — higher than McGhee's in every round.
Recent results: submission of Cuamba (R2), decision over Turcios, third-round knockout loss to Oliveira.

Critical Insight
McGhee's rows are a range fighter's: volume peaks in round two and almost nothing happens on the mat. Sopaj's are a grappler's: a minute-plus of control in each of the first two rounds, easing to 44 seconds in the third. McGhee's route is range plus a reset after each entry; Sopaj's is the second attempt after the first defence.

Strike targeting

Marcus

71%

16%

13%

Head

71%

Body

16%

Legs

13%

Benardo

86%

Head

86%

Body

Legs

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

MarcusBenardo

94%Distance51%

3%Clinch10%

3%Ground39%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceMarcus owns it

5.44 SLpM and 90% takedown defence against 2.43 takedowns per fifteen

Pocket / ExchangesMarcus owns it

McGhee absorbs 3.64 against Sopaj’s 4.69. Knockdowns are 0.72 and 0.81.

ClinchBenardo owns it

Sopaj 2.43 takedowns per fifteen against 0.24.

GroundBenardo owns it

0.81 submission attempts per fifteen against 0.24. An attempt is not a finish.

Path to Victory

Marcus McGhee

Keep space for combinations, defend consecutive entries, and reset before the next attack.

Why they win

Volume and absorption

5.44 significant strikes landed and 3.64 absorbed per minute. Sopaj lands 4.39 and absorbs 4.69.

Takedown defence

90% against Sopaj’s 77%.

Frame

68 inches and 69-inch reach against 66 and 66.

Decision share

30 of McGhee’s 55 model points are decisions, his largest bucket.

Recent form

Decision win over John Yannis after a decision loss to Petr Yan.

The gameplan

1
Preserve space
Combinations only while the range is his.
2
Consecutive entries
Defend the second shot, not only the first. Defence is 90%.
3
Reset
Return to open space before resuming offence.
4
Do not treat one sprawl as safety
The reversal is a finish after the first defence fails.
5
Decision is the mode
30 points, larger than the 16-point knockout share.

Path to Victory

Benardo Sopaj

Create contact through strikes, chain attempts at the fence, and turn control into an attacking position.

Why they win

Takedowns

2.43 per fifteen against 0.24.

Submissions

0.81 attempts per fifteen against 0.24, and 4 career submission wins.

Accuracy

58% striking accuracy against 44%.

Age

26 against McGhee at 36.

Model submission share

18 of Sopaj’s 45 points are submissions, and 20 are knockouts.

The gameplan

1
Strike to create contact
58% accuracy is the entry, not a kickboxing match.
2
Chain at the fence
2.43 takedowns matter only if the second attempt follows the first.
3
Attacking position
Control has to become offence. 0.81 submission attempts per fifteen.
4
Build on the Cuamba finish
The Cuamba submission is the template — entry, control, finish.
5
Finish shares
20 knockout points and 18 submission points. The decision share is only 7.

Danger Zone

How Marcus McGhee loses

Sopaj chains a second entry after the first defence and finishes on the mat.
One lost transition outweighs several clean striking rounds.
Sopaj’s wrestling proves stronger than his 2.43 takedowns per fifteen suggest.

Danger Zone

How Benardo Sopaj loses

McGhee resets after every entry and the 5.44 pace banks the 30-point decision.
The first sprawl is treated as the end of the sequence and it is not.
McGhee’s 90% takedown defence holds and the submission threat never materialises.

Matchup interpretation

The phase that changes the comparison

McGhee’s 5.44 strikes per minute and 3.64 absorbed support a route at distance. Sopaj’s 2.43 takedowns and 0.81 submission attempts interrupt it. The follow-up to the first entry decides the position.

Counterargument

What would change the selection

One lost transition can matter more than several clean striking rounds. Sopaj has three UFC bouts, so his ceiling is still open.

3 rounds

Distance and repeatability

Three bantamweight rounds. The striking edge only counts while McGhee keeps the range.

model win % for McGhee

Card context

Age vs. pace

Three bantamweight rounds. Sopaj is 26, ten years younger than McGhee, and pushes 2.43 takedowns per fifteen.

Method split

Submission tail

Method shares: McGhee 16 KO, 30 decision, 9 submission. Sopaj 20 KO, 7 decision, 18 submission.

Sopaj submission share of all outcomes

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 4 things

McGhee's lean is 5.44 SLpM and 90% takedown defence. One lost transition still outweighs several striking rounds.

Sopaj’s reversal is a second entry after the first defence, then a finish. Takedowns are 2.43 per fifteen and submission attempts are 0.81.

Model: McGhee 55% / Sopaj 45%, conviction 4/10. Fair price −122 / +122 against BetOnline's −145 / +125.

The market reads this as a decision fight and the model does not: BetOnline has it going the distance at −160 (61.5% implied) and McGhee by decision at +110 (47.6%), while the model sends only 37 of 100 fights to the cards and gives McGhee's decision route 30%.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

McGhee Decision — 30%McGhee KO/TKO — 16%McGhee Submission — 9%Sopaj KO/TKO — 20%Sopaj Decision — 7%Sopaj Submission — 18%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Marcus McGhee gold · Benardo Sopaj orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Range versus entries

The lean holds only while McGhee resets after each defended takedown.

Volume versus phase changes

5.44 strikes per minute and 90% takedown defence against 2.43 takedowns and 0.81 submission attempts.

Takedown defence

90% for McGhee against Sopaj's 77%.

Experience and age

Sopaj has three UFC fights. McGhee is 36 and Sopaj is 26.

Knockdowns

0.72 per fifteen for McGhee and 0.81 for Sopaj.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

McGhee decision

He keeps range, resets after entries, and takes a 29-28 or 30-27. Largest bucket.

Scripted outcomes for Marcus McGhee vs Benardo Sopaj — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Marcus McGhee win probability

16%

30%

KO/TKODECSUB

Sixteen points. Career ledger has 8 KO/TKO wins and 0.72 knockdowns per fifteen.
Thirty points. Largest share when the range holds for three rounds.
Nine points. 0.24 submission attempts per fifteen.

Benardo Sopaj win probability

20%

18%

KO/TKODECSUB

Twenty points. Knockdowns are 0.81 per fifteen.
Seven points. Narrow if the wrestling does not finish.
Eighteen points. 0.81 attempts per fifteen and 4 career submission wins.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Marcus

Even

Marcus

29-28 McGhee

Range held in two rounds

Inside the 30-point decision bucket

30-27 McGhee

Resets work in all three rounds

Inside the same 30-point decision bucket

29-28 Sopaj

Control wins two rounds without a finish

Inside the 7-point decision share

Model and price

Marcus McGhee

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 55%
Fair odds: -122

Reference quote: -145 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.82

Estimated EV: -7.1%
Edge vs no-vig market: -2.1 pp

Benardo Sopaj

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 45%
Fair odds: +122

Reference quote: +125 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.22

Estimated EV: +1.3%
Edge vs no-vig market: +2.1 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Marcus McGhee

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.82 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Benardo Sopaj

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.23 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

8 value leans2 large gaps7 fair9 avoid

Fight does not go the distance+130+19.5ppUnder 2.5 rounds+161+17.7ppFight ends by KO/TKO+250+7.4ppBenardo Sopaj wins inside the distance+225+7.2pp+4 more in table

Full prop table (26)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
Prop	Reference quote	Implied %	Model %	Fair odds	Difference (pp)	Estimated EV	Our read
Fight does not go the distance	+130BetOnline	43.5%	63%	-1701.59 decimal	+19.5	+44.9%	Value lean
Under 2.5 rounds	+161BetOnline	38.3%	56%	-1271.79 decimal	+17.7	+46.2%	Value lean
Fight ends by KO/TKO	+250BetOnline	28.6%	36%	+1782.78 decimal	+7.4	+26.0%	Value lean
Benardo Sopaj wins inside the distance	+225BetOnline	30.8%	38%	+1632.63 decimal	+7.2	+23.5%	Value lean
Benardo Sopaj by KO/TKO	+650BetOnline	13.3%	20%	+4005.00 decimal	+6.7	+50.0%	Value lean
Marcus McGhee wins inside the distance	+400BetOnline	20.0%	25%	+3004.00 decimal	+5.0	+25.0%	Value lean
Fight ends by submission	+350BetOnline	22.2%	27%	+2703.70 decimal	+4.8	+21.5%	Value lean
Marcus McGhee by submission	+2000BetOnline	4.8%	9%	+101111.11 decimal	+4.2	+89.0%	Value lean
Over 2.5 rounds	-185BetOnline	64.9%	45%	+1222.22 decimal	-19.9	-30.7%	Large gap — review
Fight goes the distance	-160BetOnline	61.5%	37%	+1702.70 decimal	-24.5	-39.9%	Large gap — review
Benardo Sopaj in round 3	+1500BetOnline	6.3%	8%	+115012.50 decimal	+1.8	+28.0%	Fair price
Marcus McGhee in round 2	+1100BetOnline	8.3%	10%	+90010.00 decimal	+1.7	+20.0%	Fair price
Marcus McGhee in round 3	+1600BetOnline	5.9%	7%	+132914.29 decimal	+1.1	+19.0%	Fair price
Marcus McGhee inside the distance (no action on a decision)	+150BetOnline	40.0%	40%	+1502.50 decimal	0.0	0.0%	Fair price
Benardo Sopaj in round 1	+450BetOnline	18.2%	18%	+4565.56 decimal	-0.2	-1.0%	Fair price
Benardo Sopaj in round 2	+700BetOnline	12.5%	12%	+7338.33 decimal	-0.5	-4.0%	Fair price
Benardo Sopaj inside the distance (no action on a decision)	-180BetOnline	64.3%	60%	-1501.67 decimal	-4.3	-6.7%	Fair price
Benardo Sopaj by submission	+400BetOnline	20.0%	18%	+4565.56 decimal	-2.0	-10.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Marcus McGhee in round 1	+900BetOnline	10.0%	8%	+115012.50 decimal	-2.0	-20.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Marcus McGhee by KO/TKO	+450BetOnline	18.2%	16%	+5256.25 decimal	-2.2	-12.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Benardo Sopaj by KO/TKO or decision	+210BetOnline	32.3%	27%	+2703.70 decimal	-5.3	-16.3%	Avoid / overpriced
Benardo Sopaj by submission or decision	+180BetOnline	35.7%	25%	+3004.00 decimal	-10.7	-30.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Marcus McGhee by submission or decision	+100BetOnline	50.0%	39%	+1562.56 decimal	-11.0	-22.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Marcus McGhee by KO/TKO or decision	-140BetOnline	58.3%	46%	+1172.17 decimal	-12.3	-21.1%	Avoid / overpriced
Benardo Sopaj by decision	+400BetOnline	20.0%	7%	+132914.29 decimal	-13.0	-65.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Marcus McGhee by decision	+110BetOnline	47.6%	30%	+2333.33 decimal	-17.6	-37.0%	Avoid / overpriced

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Analyst price notes

Written against the prices of September 30.

The cleanest angle on this board is Sopaj inside the distance at +225 (model 38%, fair +163): 38 of his 45 model points are finishes, built on four career submissions, 0.81 attempts per fifteen and the second-round choke of Timmy Cuamba, and fight ends by KO/TKO at +250 (model 36%, fair +178) is a value lean for the same reason. The longer prices also rate as value leans — Sopaj by KO/TKO at +650 (model 20%, fair +400) and McGhee by submission at +2000 (model 9%, fair +1011) — but McGhee has never been knocked down in six UFC bouts and has only one career submission win, so both are thin paths. Avoid the decision markets: McGhee by decision at +110 implies 47.6% against a 30% model share, and Sopaj by decision at +400 implies 20% against 7%, because when Sopaj wins the model almost never has it going to the cards. The distance itself carries a Large gap — review flag, with BetOnline pricing fifteen minutes at −160 (61.5% implied) against a 37% model share, and the market has a real case: McGhee's last three fights all went the distance and two of Sopaj's three UFC bouts reached round three, while the model's finish-heavy read matches career ledgers in which 9 of McGhee's 11 wins and 11 of Sopaj's 13 came inside the distance. Under 2.5 rounds at +161 (model 56%, fair −127) and fight does not go the distance at +130 (model 63%, fair −170) grade as value leans, but they are the other side of that same disagreement, so weigh the recent-form evidence before treating them as a separate edge.

Conviction

4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Modest McGhee lean, 55/45, conviction 4/10. The case is 5.44 SLpM, 3.64 SApM and 90% takedown defence against Sopaj's three-fight sample. Lean: Marcus McGhee.

What backs the lean

5.44 significant strikes landed per minute.
90% takedown defence.
Six completed UFC bouts against three.

What limits it

Sopaj averages 2.43 takedowns and 0.81 submissions per fifteen.
The Cuamba submission shows the finish is real.
One lost transition can outweigh several striking rounds.

Final Assessment

McGhee is the model lean through striking rhythm and 90% takedown defence, if he resets after Sopaj's first and second entries.

Model split is 55/45, conviction 4/10. Method shares: McGhee 16 KO / 30 decision / 9 submission; Sopaj 20 KO / 7 decision / 18 submission. Fair price McGhee −122 · Sopaj +122. BetOnline's McGhee −145 / Sopaj +125 is a 57–43 split once the margin comes out, slightly heavier on McGhee than the model, so the moneyline offers no real edge on either side; the prop board is where the two part ways, with the market pricing a decision far more often than the model does.

Sopaj's submission activity means one lost transition can matter more than several clean striking exchanges. At 26 and three fights into his UFC run, his ceiling is still open.

Back to UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang Fight Card