Alexander Hernandez vs Rafael dos Anjos – UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · LIGHTWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

Alexander Hernandez

“The Great Ape”

18W9L

Burst Striker

Rafael dos Anjos

“RDA”

32W17L

Phase Grappler

Hernandez's bursts versus dos Anjos's connected phases

LightweightDelta Center, Salt Lake City, UtahOctober 3, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon · prelim lightweight

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Hernandez fights in open-space bursts, resetting before the grappling starts. Dos Anjos, a former lightweight champion, wants to strike his way into the clinch and chain entries into takedowns and submission threats. Everything turns on what follows a missed combination: if Hernandez defends the second level change, the fight stays on his terms; if dos Anjos, now 41, still connects those phases, experience takes over.

Paths that change the fight

Alexander HernandezAttack in controlled bursts, defend the follow-up level change, and avoid turning a missed combination into fence pressure.
Rafael dos AnjosUse striking to close distance, connect clinch entries to offence, and deny Hernandez repeated open-space resets.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 5/10

Hernandez absorbs 4.45 per minute and was countered and taken down twice in round one by Rafa Garcia.
Hernandez has been stopped by strikes three times and submitted by Moicano, and he is 5-5 over his last ten.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Alexander Hernandez

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 65%
Fair odds: -186

Reference quote: -255 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.54

Rafael dos Anjos

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 35%
Fair odds: +186

Reference quote: +211 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.86

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, simulation buckets, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Dos Anjos, the former lightweight champion, is 41 and fights for the first time since his left knee gave out early against Geoff Neal; that loss was an injury stoppage, not a knockout, and the knee took three surgeries and almost two years to come back from. He is also back at lightweight with no win at the weight since 2020, while Hernandez arrives off a decision loss to Rafa Garcia that ended a four-fight run. Shared opponents Renato Moicano and Donald Cerrone beat Hernandez and lost to dos Anjos, but those nights are years old. The swing factor is the knee: dos Anjos's route runs through level changes and clinch entries, and if they come slower, Hernandez's bursts and takedown defence carry the fight.

Alexander Hernandez

Attribute

Rafael dos Anjos

34Seven-year gap

Age

5' 9"+1" Hernandez

Height

5' 8"

72"+2" Hernandez

Reach

70"

—

Leg Reach

—

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

18-9-0

Pro Record

32-17-0

10-8

UFC Record

21-15

Burst striker

Fighting Style

Phase-changing BJJ

Hernandez is slightly taller with a two-inch reach edge; dos Anjos is the southpaw. Dos Anjos brings thirty-six UFC fights, but at 41 and back from the knee injury that ended the Neal fight in round one and kept him out almost two years, present form is the question.

Venue Factor
Three rounds fork on phase: Hernandez wins open-space bursts; RDA wins connected clinch and mat sequences. Hernandez must defend the follow-up level change after missed combinations.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Alexander Hernandez

Pro Record

18-9-0

UFC Record

10-8 across 18 UFC bouts

Streak

Loss — decision to Rafa Garcia (Apr 2026)

Finish Rate

10 of 18 wins (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)

Avg Fight Time

10:22

Chin · Stopped by strikes 3× in UFC (Cerrone, Dober, Quarantillo)SOS · UFC lightweightBurst striker

Hernandez is 18-9 overall and 10-8 across 18 UFC fights. The last result is a decision loss to Rafa Garcia. Before it: a split decision over Austin Hubbard in October 2024, then a decision over Kurt Holobaugh and stoppages of Chase Hooper (round one) and Diego Ferreira (round two) in 2025. He is 5-5 over his last ten UFC fights.

Rafael dos Anjos

Pro Record

32-17-0

UFC Record

21-15 across 36 UFC bouts

Streak

Loss — TKO (knee injury) to Geoff Neal (Oct 2024)

Finish Rate

16 of 32 wins (5 KO/TKO, 11 submissions)

Avg Fight Time

14:32

Chin · Stopped by strikes 3× in UFC, plus 2 injury TKOsSOS · Former championPhase grappler

Dos Anjos is 32-17 overall and 21-15 across 36 UFC fights. His last fight, against Geoff Neal at welterweight in October 2024, ended at 1:30 of round one when his left knee gave out after an early knockdown: a torn ACL and meniscus, three surgeries and 707 days out. Before that came close decision losses to Mateusz Gamrot and Vicente Luque and a second-round submission of Bryan Barberena. This is his first lightweight fight since the Gamrot loss in March 2024, and his last win at the weight was over Paul Felder in November 2020.

Alexander Hernandez

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Rafael dos Anjos

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Alexander Hernandezsignature weapons

KO/TKOLatest: Diego Ferreira, 3:46 of round two, Sep 2025. 0.48 knockdowns per fifteen in the UFC.

×8

SubmissionBoth rear-naked chokes. 0.08 submission attempts per fifteen in the UFC.

×2

Rafael dos Anjossignature weapons

SubmissionRear-naked choke ×4, armbar ×3, arm-triangle ×2, kimura, neck crank. Latest: Bryan Barberena, neck crank, Dec 2022 (R2).

×11

KO/TKOLatest UFC stoppage: Donald Cerrone, 1:06 of round one, Dec 2015.

×5

Alexander Hernandez

Rafa Garcia

Decision

Opponent context: veteran

UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal — Apr 2026

Diego Ferreira

KO/TKO

Opponent context: veteran

UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva — Sep 2025

Chase Hooper

KO/TKO

Opponent context: veteran

UFC 319 — Aug 2025

Kurt Holobaugh

Decision

Opponent context: veteran

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 — Mar 2025

Austin Hubbard

Decision

Opponent context: veteran

UFC 307 — Oct 2024

Pattern

Hernandez lost a decision to Rafa Garcia after four straight wins, two of them stoppages — Hooper in round one, Ferreira in round two.

Rafael dos Anjos

Geoff Neal

TKO (knee injury)

Opponent context: veteran

UFC 308 — Oct 2024

Mateusz Gamrot

Decision

Opponent context: elite

UFC 299 — Mar 2024

Vicente Luque

Decision

Opponent context: veteran

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos — Aug 2023

Bryan Barberena

Submission

Opponent context: veteran

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland — Dec 2022

Rafael Fiziev

KO/TKO

Opponent context: elite

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev — Jul 2022

Pattern

Dos Anjos’s last five are four losses and a second-round submission of Barberena. Fiziev stopped him with strikes in round five; the Neal fight ended when his knee gave out in round one, and the Gamrot and Luque losses were close decisions.

Alexander Hernandez

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Rafael dos Anjos

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Career win ledger: Hernandez 8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions and 8 decisions in 18 wins — eight of his ten finishes in round one. Dos Anjos 5 KO/TKO, 11 submissions and 16 decisions in 32 wins — nine finishes in round one, six in round two and one in round four.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Alexander	Rafael
Renato Moicano	L· Submission R2 (Feb 2022)	W· UD5 (Mar 2022)
Moicano submitted Hernandez with a rear-naked choke at 1:23 of round two at UFC 271; three weeks later he went five rounds with dos Anjos at UFC 272 and lost the decision.
Donald Cerrone	L· TKO R2 (Jan 2019)	W· UD3 (Aug 2013); W · TKO R1 (Dec 2015)
Cerrone stopped Hernandez in round two. Dos Anjos beat Cerrone twice, the second time in 66 seconds to defend the lightweight title.

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

Alexander

Rafael

Close. Hernandez lands 4.23 and absorbs 4.45; dos Anjos lands 3.48 at 47% and absorbs 3.23. Striking defence is 60% for both.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

Alexander

Rafael

Dos Anjos 1.95 takedowns and 0.57 submission attempts per fifteen against 1.05 and 0.08. Hernandez has the better takedown defence, 69% to 55%.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

Alexander

Rafael

Dos Anjos leads both halves narrowly; the grappling gap (54 to 46) is the wider one.

Metric	Alexander	Rafael
Strikes landed / min	4.23	3.48
Strikes absorbed / min	4.45	3.23
TD Defence	69%	55%
Takedowns / 15	1.05	1.95
Knockdowns / 15	0.48	0.20

Archetype Base Rate

Burst Striker 65%35% Phase Grappler

MMA Analytics model lean · 65/35 Hernandez. Dos Anjos is 41, back from a knee injury and 707 days out, with no lightweight win since 2020. Hernandez's 4.45 absorbed per minute keeps the edge short of the market's.

Alexander HernandezRafael dos Anjos

Lightweight

No comparable division benchmark is published for this sample. These values describe each fighter; no division rank is assigned.

Stat	Alexander	Rafael
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	4.23	3.48
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	40%	47%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	60%	60%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	4.45	3.23
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.05	1.95
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	69%	55%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.08	0.57
KD/15	0.48	0.20

Statistical Verdict
Career rates read close: Hernandez leads output and takedown defence, dos Anjos leads absorption, takedowns and submissions. The 65/35 lean comes from what the rates cannot see — age 41, a knee that needed three surgeries after the Neal fight and no lightweight win since 2020.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Alexander Hernandez

Round one is his power round: 0.22 knockdowns on average, and eight of his ten career finishes. Only 9 of his 18 UFC fights have reached round three.
Output is steady at 19.1, 18.9 and 20.1 landed per round, and 29–33% of it goes to the body in every round.
83–87% of his strikes land at distance. His clinch share falls from 11.5% in round one to 3% in round three.

Rafael dos Anjos

Dos Anjos fights closer than Hernandez: only 64–69% of his strikes land at distance, with 15–20% in the clinch and 15–21% on the ground.
Control climbs from 61 seconds in an average round one to 78 and 79 in rounds two and three; takedowns peak in round two at 0.8.
Accuracy holds at 47–48% in all three rounds. His knockdown rate is highest in round one (0.14).

Critical Insight
Hernandez's round is the first — his knockdowns and finishes cluster there. Dos Anjos's numbers build, with more control and more ground strikes as the fight goes on. The hinge is whether Hernandez's early damage lands before the clinch and control accumulate. At 41 and off three knee surgeries, current readiness matters more than the 36-bout sample.

Strike targeting

Alexander

56%

31%

13%

Head

56%

Body

31%

Legs

13%

Rafael

57%

24%

19%

Head

57%

Body

24%

Legs

19%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

AlexanderRafael

85%Distance66%

8%Clinch17%

7%Ground17%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceAlexander owns it

4.23 SLpM against 3.48; 83–87% of Hernandez’s strikes land at distance against dos Anjos’s 64–69%. Striking defence is 60% for both.

Pocket / ExchangesAlexander owns it

Hernandez lands 4.23 at 0.48 knockdowns per fifteen. He also absorbs 4.45.

ClinchRafael owns it

Dos Anjos 1.95 takedowns per fifteen against 1.05, and 15–20% of his strikes land in the clinch.

GroundRafael owns it

0.57 submission attempts per fifteen against 0.08, and 61–79 seconds of control per round. An attempt is not a finish.

Path to Victory

Alexander Hernandez

Attack in controlled bursts, defend the follow-up level change, and avoid turning a missed combination into fence pressure.

Why they win

Striking volume

4.23 significant strikes per minute at 40% accuracy. Dos Anjos lands 3.48 at 47%.

Takedown defence

69% against dos Anjos’s 55%.

Frame

69 inches and 72-inch reach against 68 inches and 70.

Age

34 against 41, and dos Anjos returns from 707 days out after three knee surgeries.

Recent wins

Stoppages of Hooper and Ferreira in 2025. The Garcia decision loss is the latest result.

The gameplan

1
Bursts
Attack in controlled combinations, then exit.
2
Defend the second level change
The first sprawl is not the end of the sequence.
3
No fence tax
Do not turn a miss into a long clinch against the fence.
4
Respect the absorption
4.45 strikes absorbed per minute is the tax on the volume.
5
Knockout path
30 of Hernandez’s 65 points are KO/TKO. Decisions are 33, the largest bucket in the fight.

Path to Victory

Rafael dos Anjos

Use striking to close distance, connect clinch entries to offence, and deny Hernandez repeated open-space resets.

Why they win

Takedowns

1.95 per fifteen against 1.05.

Submissions

0.57 attempts per fifteen against 0.08, and 11 career submission wins.

Absorption

3.23 significant strikes absorbed per minute against 4.45.

Experience

36 UFC bouts and a former champion’s résumé.

Decision route

22 of his 35 model points are decisions, his main route ahead of submissions at 8.

The gameplan

1
Strike to close
Entries start from offence, not a shot from the outside.
2
Connect the phase
1.95 takedowns only matter if the knee holds through the level changes and the clinch produces offence.
3
Deny resets
Do not let Hernandez walk back to open space after every defence.
4
Submission threat
0.57 attempts per fifteen. An attempt is not a finish.
5
Decision is the mode
22 points, against 8 for a submission and 5 for a knockout.

Danger Zone

How Alexander Hernandez loses

Dos Anjos connects phases early and banks control before the bursts reset range.
The 4.45 absorption line shows up on the cards.
A missed combination becomes prolonged fence pressure.

Danger Zone

How Rafael dos Anjos loses

Hernandez keeps resetting to open space and the entries never connect.
Age 41, the knee and a 707-day layoff are the current form, not the 36-bout average.
Historical experience gets treated as readiness.

Matchup interpretation

The phase that changes the comparison

Hernandez’s 4.23 strikes per minute give him active exchanges. Dos Anjos’s 1.95 takedowns and 0.57 submission attempts point at connected phases, and every one of those entries now runs through the knee that ended the Neal fight. Hernandez’s 69% takedown defence meets dos Anjos’s 36% takedown accuracy.

Counterargument

What would change the estimate

A hard cut, a missed weight or visibly limited movement from dos Anjos would take Hernandez to 70–72%. A line move toward dos Anjos, with Hernandez shorter than about -200, would bring it back to about 60/40; a drift past -300 on fight day would be read as injury news.

3 rounds

Distance and repeatability

Three lightweight rounds, and the model sends 55 of 100 to the judges: 33 Hernandez decisions and 22 for dos Anjos. Hernandez loses decisions to pressure, which is why he stops at 65%.

model % the fight goes the distance

Card context

Age vs. pace

Dos Anjos is 41, seven years older than Hernandez, and back at lightweight for the first time since March 2024. His last win at the weight was over Paul Felder in November 2020; since then he was stopped by Fiziev in round five and lost a decision to Gamrot after dropping him in round one.

Method split

Where the points sit

Method shares: Hernandez 30 KO, 33 decision, 2 submission. Dos Anjos 5 KO, 22 decision, 8 submission.

Hernandez decision share of all outcomes

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 4 things

Model: Hernandez 65%, dos Anjos 35%, conviction 5/10, fair price -186 / +186. Dos Anjos is 41, fights for the first time in 707 days after a torn ACL and meniscus and three surgeries, and has no lightweight win since November 2020.

The Neal loss was not a stoppage by strikes: his left knee gave out in round one. Across 36 UFC bouts dos Anjos has been stopped by strikes three times, so his routes stay live, mostly a decision (22) or a submission (8) built on 1.95 takedowns and 0.57 submission attempts per fifteen.

The model stops short of the market’s 69% because Hernandez absorbs 4.45 per minute, loses decisions to pressure and was countered and taken down twice in round one by Rafa Garcia. A Hernandez knockout sits at 30%, not the roughly 37% the board implies.

BetOnline has Hernandez -255 / dos Anjos +211, about 69/31 without the margin, and the line has barely moved from its -250/+207 open. Dos Anjos +211 against a 35% model share is only a thin lean, and no method prop shows clear value; the Hernandez KO/TKO (+120) and inside-the-distance (+110) prices sit well above the model’s 30% and 32%.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Hernandez Decision — 33%Hernandez KO/TKO — 30%Hernandez Submission — 2%dos Anjos Decision — 22%dos Anjos Submission — 8%dos Anjos KO/TKO — 5%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Alexander Hernandez gold · Rafael dos Anjos orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Output versus phases

4.23 strikes per minute against 1.95 takedowns and 0.57 submission attempts.

Volume versus phase changes

Hernandez’s bursts against dos Anjos connecting a strike to a clinch.

Takedown defence

Hernandez stops 69% of takedowns; dos Anjos completes 36% of his attempts.

Age, knee and layoff

Dos Anjos is 41, back at lightweight after 707 days out and three knee surgeries. Thirty-six UFC bouts do not measure that.

Knockdowns

0.48 per fifteen for Hernandez and 0.20 for dos Anjos.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

Hernandez decision

Bursts score in open space, the 69% takedown defence holds and the level changes never stick. Largest bucket in the fight.

Scripted outcomes for Alexander Hernandez vs Rafael dos Anjos — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Alexander Hernandez win probability

30%

33%

KO/TKODECSUB

Thirty points. Eight career KO/TKO wins and 0.48 knockdowns per fifteen, held below the board's roughly 37% because dos Anjos has been stopped by strikes only three times in 36 UFC bouts.
Thirty-three points, the largest bucket in the fight. Output and 69% takedown defence against a 41-year-old whose route needs level changes on a surgically repaired knee.
Two points. 0.08 submission attempts per fifteen against an 11-time submission winner.

Rafael dos Anjos win probability

22%

KO/TKODECSUB

Five points. Knockdowns are 0.20 per fifteen, and his last UFC knockout win came in 2015.
Twenty-two points, his main route: connected phases and control across three rounds, the kind of close fight he lost narrowly to Gamrot and Luque.
Eight points. 0.57 attempts per fifteen and 11 career submission wins; Moicano submitted Hernandez.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Alexander

Rafael

Alexander

29-28 Hernandez

Bursts take rounds one and three; dos Anjos banks the middle round

Inside the 33-point decision bucket

30-27 Hernandez

The level changes never stick and the resets hold all fight

Inside the same 33-point decision bucket

29-28 dos Anjos

Two rounds of connected phases

Inside the 22-point decision bucket

Model and price

Alexander Hernandez

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 65%
Fair odds: -186

Reference quote: -255 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.54

Estimated EV: -9.5%
Edge vs no-vig market: -4.1 pp

Rafael dos Anjos

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 35%
Fair odds: +186

Reference quote: +211 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.86

Estimated EV: +8.8%
Edge vs no-vig market: +4.1 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Alexander Hernandez

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.54 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Rafael dos Anjos

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.86 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

1 value lean8 fair9 avoid

Rafael dos Anjos inside the distance (no action on a decision)+300+4.0pp

Full prop table (18)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
Prop	Reference quote	Implied %	Model %	Fair odds	Difference (pp)	Estimated EV	Our read
Rafael dos Anjos inside the distance (no action on a decision)	+300BetOnline	25.0%	29%	+2453.45 decimal	+4.0	+16.0%	Value lean
Fight goes the distance	-105BetOnline	51.2%	55%	-1221.82 decimal	+3.8	+7.4%	Fair price
Rafael dos Anjos by submission or decision	+235BetOnline	29.9%	30%	+2333.33 decimal	+0.1	+0.5%	Fair price
Rafael dos Anjos by decision	+350BetOnline	22.2%	22%	+3554.55 decimal	-0.2	-1.0%	Fair price
Alexander Hernandez by decision	+200BetOnline	33.3%	33%	+2033.03 decimal	-0.3	-1.0%	Fair price
Rafael dos Anjos by KO/TKO or decision	+265BetOnline	27.4%	27%	+2703.70 decimal	-0.4	-1.5%	Fair price
Rafael dos Anjos wins inside the distance	+625BetOnline	13.8%	13%	+6697.69 decimal	-0.8	-5.8%	Fair price
Alexander Hernandez by submission or decision	+175BetOnline	36.4%	35%	+1862.86 decimal	-1.4	-3.8%	Fair price
Alexander Hernandez by KO/TKO or decision	-225BetOnline	69.2%	63%	-1701.59 decimal	-6.2	-9.0%	Fair price
Fight ends by submission	+800BetOnline	11.1%	10%	+90010.00 decimal	-1.1	-10.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Rafael dos Anjos by submission	+850BetOnline	10.5%	8%	+115012.50 decimal	-2.5	-24.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Rafael dos Anjos by KO/TKO	+1200BetOnline	7.7%	5%	+190020.00 decimal	-2.7	-35.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Alexander Hernandez by submission	+2000BetOnline	4.8%	2%	+490050.00 decimal	-2.8	-58.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Alexander Hernandez inside the distance (no action on a decision)	-400BetOnline	80.0%	71%	-2451.41 decimal	-9.0	-11.3%	Avoid / overpriced
Fight does not go the distance	-125BetOnline	55.6%	45%	+1222.22 decimal	-10.6	-19.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Fight ends by KO/TKO	+100BetOnline	50.0%	35%	+1862.86 decimal	-15.0	-30.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Alexander Hernandez by KO/TKO	+120BetOnline	45.5%	30%	+2333.33 decimal	-15.5	-34.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Alexander Hernandez wins inside the distance	+110BetOnline	47.6%	32%	+2123.13 decimal	-15.6	-32.8%	Avoid / overpriced

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Analyst price notes

Written against the prices of September 30.

There is no clear method value on this board. The Hernandez finish prices are the ones to avoid: KO/TKO at +120 implies 45.5% against the model's 30%, inside the distance at +110 implies 47.6% against 32%, and 'fight ends by KO/TKO' at even money asks for 50% against 35%, because dos Anjos has been stopped by strikes only three times in 36 UFC bouts. The decision lines are priced about right, Hernandez by decision at +200 (33.3% implied, model 33%) and dos Anjos by decision at +350 (22.2%, model 22%), and the distance line at -105 (51.2%) sits close to the model's 55%. Dos Anjos +211 (32.2% implied) against a 35% model share is only a thin lean, and the one flagged value, dos Anjos inside the distance with no action on a decision at +300 (25% implied against 29%), is a four-point edge on the minority of fights that end early. Size both small: the knee is the unknown, and a drift past -300 on fight day would be read as injury news.

Conviction

5/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Hernandez 65/35, conviction 5/10. Age 41, three knee surgeries, 707 days out and no lightweight win since 2020 weigh on dos Anjos; Hernandez's 4.45 absorbed per minute and the Garcia loss keep the lean short of the market's 69%. Lean: Alexander Hernandez.

What backs the lean

Dos Anjos is 41 and returns from a torn ACL and meniscus, three surgeries and 707 days out; the knee carries his level changes, clinch entries and southpaw base.
No lightweight win for dos Anjos since Paul Felder in November 2020; at 155 since then he lost to Fiziev and Gamrot.
Hernandez's 69% takedown defence meets 36% takedown accuracy, and his 2025 stoppages of Hooper and Ferreira came against grapplers.

What limits it

Hernandez absorbs 4.45 per minute and was countered and taken down twice in round one by Rafa Garcia.
Hernandez has been stopped by strikes three times and submitted by Moicano, and he is 5-5 over his last ten.
Before the injury dos Anjos stayed close with Gamrot and Luque, and 11 career submission wins keep his route live.

Final Assessment

Hernandez's output and takedown defence meet a 41-year-old returning from three knee surgeries at a weight he has not won at since 2020. Dos Anjos's career rates still carry weight, but the knee sits under exactly what his route needs: level changes, clinch entries and a stable southpaw base.

Model split is 65/35 Hernandez, conviction 5/10. Method shares: Hernandez 30 KO / 33 decision / 2 submission; dos Anjos 5 KO / 22 decision / 8 submission, with 55% going the distance. Fair price -186 / +186, against BetOnline's Hernandez -255 · dos Anjos +211. The market goes further than the model mainly by pricing a Hernandez knockout well above the model's 30%; dos Anjos +211 is only a thin lean, and no method prop shows clear value.

What would move it: a hard cut, a missed weight or visibly limited movement from dos Anjos would take Hernandez to 70–72%. A line move toward dos Anjos, with Hernandez shorter than about -200, would bring it back to about 60/40, and a drift past -300 on fight day would be read as injury news.

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