Court McGee vs Eric Nolan – UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · WELTERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

Court McGee

“The Crusher”

23W14L

Pressure Wrestler

Eric Nolan

8W5L

Regional Finisher

McGee's phase changes test Nolan's limited UFC evidence

WelterweightDelta Center, Salt Lake City, UtahOctober 3, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon · prelim welterweight

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

McGee wants a phase-change fight: combinations into clinch entries, second efforts after the first defence, and control that builds round by round. Nolan has been taken down repeatedly in the UFC, so he must break contact and return strikes instead of conceding quiet stretches. The first round is the swing: Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells both knocked McGee out in it, and Nolan's finishes have all come early.

Paths that change the fight

Court McGeeSustain useful pressure: 4.50 SLpM and 1.78 takedowns per fifteen.
Eric NolanBreak contact before repeated entries develop, return meaningful strikes, and avoid long stretches without offence.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10

McGee is 40, and the Brown and Wells losses were first-round knockouts.
Nolan's two losses do not establish a ceiling.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Court McGee

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 58%
Fair odds: -138

Reference quote: +219 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.72

Eric Nolan

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 42%
Fair odds: +138

Reference quote: -265 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.38

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, simulation buckets, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Both men need a win: McGee is 40 and has lost four of his last five, while Nolan has yet to win in the Octagon. The fight asks whether a veteran who builds pressure round by round can impose it on a younger finisher who does his best work early. Nolan's problem in the UFC has been staying upright, and McGee only gets more effective as clinches and level changes pile up. The swing factor is whether Nolan has fixed that since Farman Hasanov took him down again and again, because on his feet the age gap starts to tell.

Court McGee

Attribute

Eric Nolan

Age

Twelve-year gap28

5' 11"

Height

+3" Nolan6' 2"

75.5"+1.5" McGee

Reach

74"

41.5"

Leg Reach

41.5"

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

23-14-0

Pro Record

8-5-0

11-13

UFC Record

0-2

Freestyle, pressure wrestling

Fighting Style

MMA — 4 KO, 2 sub wins

Nolan is three inches taller; McGee holds a slight reach edge at 75.5 inches to 74. McGee is 40, twelve years older than Nolan.

Venue Factor
Three rounds favour McGee if he converts entries into sustained sequences — his average control climbs from 42 seconds in round one to 95 in round three. Nolan's path is breaking contact before repeated level changes; in his two UFC fights, opponents landed 19 takedowns and held 14:31 of control.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Court McGee

Pro Record

23-14-0

UFC Record

11-13 across 24 UFC bouts

Streak

Loss — decision to Michael Chiesa (Jun 2025)

Finish Rate

12 of 23 wins (5 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)

Avg Fight Time

12:38

Chin · Stopped by strikes 3× in UFCSOS · Long UFC welterweightPhase-change wrestler

McGee is 11-13 across 24 UFC bouts. His last five: a decision loss to Michael Chiesa, a first-round submission of Tim Means, a decision loss to Alex Morono, and first-round knockout losses to Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells.

Eric Nolan

Pro Record

8-5-0

UFC Record

0-2 across 2 UFC bouts

Streak

Two losses — decision to Farman Hasanov (Jun 2026), submission to Baisangur Susurkaev (Aug 2025)

Finish Rate

6 of 8 wins (4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)

Avg Fight Time

11:01

Chin · UnprovenSOS · Two-fight UFCRegional finisher

Nolan is 0-2 in the UFC: a second-round rear-naked choke loss to Baisangur Susurkaev and a unanimous decision loss to Farman Hasanov, who landed 17 takedowns. He is 8-5 overall with four knockout wins and two submission wins, all six inside the first two rounds.

Court McGee

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Eric Nolan

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Court McGeesignature weapons

SubmissionRear-naked choke ×3, arm-triangle ×2, guillotine, neck crank. Latest: Tim Means, UFC 307, Oct 2024 (R1).

×7

KO/TKO0.15 knockdowns per fifteen in the UFC — three knockdowns across 24 bouts.

×5

Eric Nolansignature weapons

KO/TKOAll four inside two rounds. Latest: Blayne Richards, May 2025 (R1).

×4

SubmissionBoth rear-naked chokes. No submission attempts in two UFC fights.

×2

Court McGee

Michael Chiesa

Decision

Opponent context: veteran

UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley — Jun 2025

Tim Means

Submission

Opponent context: veteran

UFC 307 — Oct 2024

Alex Morono

Decision

Opponent context: veteran

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 — Apr 2024

Matt Brown

KO/TKO

Opponent context: veteran

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida — May 2023

Jeremiah Wells

KO/TKO

Opponent context: veteran

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett — Jun 2022

Pattern

Four losses in five: Chiesa and Morono by decision, Brown and Wells by first-round knockout. The exception is a first-round rear-naked choke of Tim Means.

Eric Nolan

Farman Hasanov

Decision

Opponent context: prospect

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres — Jun 2026

Baisangur Susurkaev

Submission

Opponent context: prospect

UFC 319 — Aug 2025

Pattern

Both UFC fights are losses — a second-round submission to Susurkaev and a decision to Hasanov, who took him down 17 times.

Court McGee

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Eric Nolan

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Career win ledger: McGee 5 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 11 decisions of 23 wins, with finishes in round one (5), round two (3) and round three (4). Nolan 4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 2 decisions of 8 wins — all six finishes inside the first two rounds.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Court	Eric
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	Long UFC welterweight — Recent opposition: Michael Chiesa, Tim Means, Alex Morono, Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells — all UFC veterans	Two-fight UFC — UFC opponents so far: Baisangur Susurkaev and Farman Hasanov
UFC sample	11-13 across 24 UFC bouts	0-2 across 2 UFC bouts
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	0 elite · 5 veteran tier	0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (10 vs 2 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponents	Michael Chiesa, Tim Means, Alex Morono	Farman Hasanov, Baisangur Susurkaev

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

Court

Ericfew UFC fights

McGee lands 4.50 per minute at 37% with 61% defence. Nolan lands 1.68 at 35% with 45% defence across two UFC fights; he absorbs less, 2.59 per minute to 3.65.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

Court

Ericfew UFC fights

McGee 1.78 takedowns, 71% defence, 0.45 submission attempts per fifteen. Nolan is 0, 44% and 0 — UFC opponents landed 19 of 34 takedown attempts on him.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

Court

Ericfew UFC fights

McGee leads both halves; the grappling gap (56 to 34) is the wider one.

Metric	Court	Eric
Strikes landed / min	4.50	1.68
Strikes absorbed / min	3.65	2.59
TD Defence	71%	44%
Takedowns / 15	1.78	0
Knockdowns / 15	0.15	0

Archetype Base Rate

Pressure Wrestler 58%42% Regional Finisher

MMA Analytics model lean · 58/42 lean to McGee. McGee 4.50 SLpM, 1.78 takedowns per fifteen, 24 UFC bouts. Nolan has two UFC fights and 1.68 SLpM.

Court McGeeEric Nolan

Welterweight

No comparable division benchmark is published for this sample. These values describe each fighter; no division rank is assigned.

Stat	Court	Eric
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	4.50	1.68
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	37%	35%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	61%	45%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	3.65	2.59
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.78	0
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	71%	44%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.45	0
KD/15	0.15	0

Statistical Verdict
Welterweight rates side by side. Nolan's line covers two UFC fights; McGee's covers twenty-four.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R3: single-fight sample for Eric Nolan

Control Time per Round (sec)

Court McGee

Output rises after the first round — 20.0 significant strikes in an average round one, 22.7 in rounds two and three — and accuracy climbs from 36.4% to 45.7%.
The wrestling builds: average control goes from 42 seconds in round one to 76 in round two and 95 in round three, and his ground-strike share from 2.5% to 18.1%.
Round three is his submission round, at 0.26 attempts on average against 0.08 in round one. The Means finish was the exception: a rear-naked choke at 3:19 of round one.

Eric Nolan

Two UFC fights, five rounds. His best output was round one against Susurkaev (18 landed); he landed none in round one against Hasanov.
Opponents have controlled him: 19 of 34 takedown attempts landed and 14:31 of control in 22:01 of UFC fighting.
89% of his UFC strikes have landed at distance and none on the ground. He has attempted one takedown in the UFC.

Critical Insight
McGee gets stronger as the rounds pass — more control, more accuracy, more ground strikes. Nolan's UFC rounds have been spent defending takedowns and control. If those patterns hold, rounds two and three are McGee's and Nolan's window is the first.

Strike targeting

Court

52%

23%

25%

Head

52%

Body

23%

Legs

25%

Eric

81%

19%

Head

81%

Body

19%

Legs

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

CourtEric

85%Distance88%

6%Clinch12%

9%Ground0%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceCourt owns it

4.50 SLpM and 61% striking defence against 1.68 SLpM and 45% defence

Pocket / ExchangesCourt owns it

McGee lands more and defends more. He also absorbs 3.65 to Nolan’s 2.59.

ClinchCourt owns it

1.78 takedowns per fifteen against a recorded zero; UFC opponents are 19 of 34 on Nolan’s takedown defence.

GroundCourt owns it

0.45 submission attempts per fifteen against zero, and 14:31 of opponent control in Nolan’s 22:01 of UFC time. An attempt is not a finish.

Path to Victory

Court McGee

Sustain useful pressure: 4.50 SLpM and 1.78 takedowns per fifteen.

Why they win

Striking workload

4.50 significant strikes per minute against 1.68. Defence is 61% against 45%.

Wrestling activity

1.78 takedowns and 0.45 submission attempts per fifteen minutes, against zeros.

Takedown defence

71% against Nolan’s 44%.

Sample

24 completed UFC bouts against two.

Reach

75.5 inches against 74. Nolan is taller, at 74 inches to 71.

The gameplan

1
Connect phases
Join combinations to clinch entries instead of resetting to a kickboxing match.
2
Second effort
Keep Nolan working after the first defence.
3
Useful positions
Produce offence after the entry. An attempt rate is not a finish.
4
Do not chase
The reversal is Nolan forcing empty pressure.
5
Bank the decision
28 of McGee’s 58 points are decisions, his largest share.

Path to Victory

Eric Nolan

Break contact before repeated entries develop, return meaningful strikes, and avoid long stretches without offence.

Why they win

Age

28 against McGee at 40.

Absorption

2.59 significant strikes absorbed per minute against McGee’s 3.65, across two UFC fights.

Height

74 inches against 71.

Model knockout share

24 of Nolan’s 42 points sit in KO/TKO, his largest bucket.

Early finishing

All six of his pro finishes came inside the first two rounds.

The gameplan

1
Break contact
Leave before a second and third entry develop.
2
Return strikes
Recorded output is 1.68 per minute. Empty defence loses minutes.
3
Avoid long stalls
Do not concede stretches without offence.
4
Test the chase
Make McGee cover ground without a productive clinch.
5
Two fights are not a ceiling
The Susurkaev and Hasanov losses show what happens when pressure sticks. They do not set the ceiling.

Danger Zone

How Court McGee loses

Nolan breaks contact and McGee chases without productive entries.
The Brown and Wells knockouts repeat — both came in round one.
Age-40 minutes if the pressure never becomes offence.

Danger Zone

How Eric Nolan loses

McGee turns the fight into a sequence of defensive tasks.
The Hasanov fight repeats: takedowns absorbed round after round and a decision loss.
A 24-point knockout share that never lands leaves the 12-point decision path.

Matchup interpretation

The phase that changes the comparison

McGee’s experience and 1.78 takedowns per fifteen support sustained pressure. Nolan’s UFC sample is two fights and his recorded output is 1.68 strikes per minute. The question is whether Nolan can stop the fight becoming a sequence of defensive tasks.

Counterargument

What would change the selection

McGee’s averages span a long career, and four of his last five results are losses. Nolan’s two appearances do not establish a ceiling.

3 rounds

Distance and repeatability

Three welterweight rounds. The experience gap describes McGee more clearly. It does not show how Nolan adapts once the pace changes.

model win % for McGee

Card context

Age vs. pace

Three welterweight rounds. McGee is 40, twelve years older than Nolan, and his output and control both rise as the rounds go on.

Method split

Where the finishes sit

Method shares: McGee 10 KO, 28 decision, 20 submission. Nolan 24 KO, 12 decision, 6 submission.

Nolan KO/TKO share of all outcomes

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 4 things

McGee's lean is 4.50 SLpM, 1.78 takedowns per fifteen, and 24 UFC bouts. Takedown defence is 71%, and his control climbs every round.

Nolan’s reversal is breaking contact so McGee chases without productive entries. Both of his UFC results are losses — a submission and a decision.

Model: McGee 58% / Nolan 42%, conviction 4/10, fair price −138 / +138. BetOnline has it the other way round: Nolan -265, McGee +219.

The board reads this as a knockout fight — 'fight ends by KO/TKO' is -105 (51.2% implied) and 'fight ends by submission' +575 (14.8%) — while the model has 34% and 26%, because Nolan has conceded 19 of 34 UFC takedown attempts and submissions are McGee's second-largest bucket at 20 points.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

McGee Decision — 28%McGee KO/TKO — 10%McGee Submission — 20%Nolan KO/TKO — 24%Nolan Decision — 12%Nolan Submission — 6%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Court McGee gold · Eric Nolan orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Sample gap

24 UFC bouts against two. Nolan’s rates can still move a lot.

Volume and wrestling

4.50 strikes and 1.78 takedowns per fifteen against 1.68 and zero takedowns.

Takedown defence

71% for McGee and 44% for Nolan.

Age and record

McGee is 40 and has lost four of his last five.

Knockdowns

0.15 per fifteen for McGee and 0 for Nolan. Neither line is a power profile.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

McGee decision

Pressure becomes offence and he takes a 29-28 or 30-27. Largest single bucket.

Scripted outcomes for Court McGee vs Eric Nolan — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Court McGee win probability

10%

28%

20%

KO/TKODECSUB

Ten points. Career ledger has 5 KO/TKO wins and 0.15 knockdowns per fifteen.
Twenty-eight points. Largest share when the pressure scores for three rounds.
Twenty points. 0.45 submission attempts per fifteen, and 7 career submission wins.

Eric Nolan win probability

24%

12%

KO/TKODECSUB

Twenty-four points. Largest Nolan bucket, built on his height and four career knockout wins.
Twelve points. A decision if he denies entries without finishing.
Six points. Two career submission wins; no UFC submission attempts.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Even

Court

29-28 McGee

Pressure in two rounds, one contested

Inside the 28-point decision bucket

30-27 McGee

Entries produce offence in all three rounds

Inside the same 28-point decision bucket

29-28 Nolan

He denies entries and wins two rounds

Inside the 12-point decision share

Model and price

Court McGee

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 58%
Fair odds: -138

Reference quote: +219 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.72

Estimated EV: +85.0%
Edge vs no-vig market: +27.8 pp

Eric Nolan

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 42%
Fair odds: +138

Reference quote: -265 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.38

Estimated EV: -42.2%
Edge vs no-vig market: -27.8 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Court McGee

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.73 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Eric Nolan

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.39 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

7 value leans5 large gaps2 fair4 avoid

Court McGee by submission or decision+225+17.2ppCourt McGee wins inside the distance+575+15.2ppCourt McGee by KO/TKO or decision+300+13.0ppFight ends by submission+575+11.2pp+3 more in table

Full prop table (18)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
Prop	Reference quote	Implied %	Model %	Fair odds	Difference (pp)	Estimated EV	Our read
Court McGee by submission or decision	+225BetOnline	30.8%	48%	+1082.08 decimal	+17.2	+56.0%	Value lean
Court McGee wins inside the distance	+575BetOnline	14.8%	30%	+2333.33 decimal	+15.2	+102.5%	Value lean
Court McGee by KO/TKO or decision	+300BetOnline	25.0%	38%	+1632.63 decimal	+13.0	+52.0%	Value lean
Fight ends by submission	+575BetOnline	14.8%	26%	+2853.85 decimal	+11.2	+75.5%	Value lean
Court McGee by submission	+750BetOnline	11.8%	20%	+4005.00 decimal	+8.2	+70.0%	Value lean
Court McGee by decision	+350BetOnline	22.2%	28%	+2573.57 decimal	+5.8	+26.0%	Value lean
Court McGee by KO/TKO	+1600BetOnline	5.9%	10%	+90010.00 decimal	+4.1	+70.0%	Value lean
Court McGee inside the distance (no action on a decision)	+300BetOnline	25.0%	50%	+1002.00 decimal	+25.0	+100.0%	Large gap — review
Eric Nolan wins inside the distance	-105BetOnline	51.2%	30%	+2333.33 decimal	-21.2	-41.4%	Large gap — review
Eric Nolan by KO/TKO	+105BetOnline	48.8%	24%	+3174.17 decimal	-24.8	-50.8%	Large gap — review
Eric Nolan by KO/TKO or decision	-185BetOnline	64.9%	36%	+1782.78 decimal	-28.9	-44.5%	Large gap — review
Eric Nolan inside the distance (no action on a decision)	-400BetOnline	80.0%	50%	+1002.00 decimal	-30.0	-37.5%	Large gap — review
Fight does not go the distance	-145BetOnline	59.2%	60%	-1501.67 decimal	+0.8	+1.4%	Fair price
Eric Nolan by submission	+1600BetOnline	5.9%	6%	+156716.67 decimal	+0.1	+2.0%	Fair price
Fight goes the distance	+115BetOnline	46.5%	40%	+1502.50 decimal	-6.5	-14.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Eric Nolan by submission or decision	+200BetOnline	33.3%	18%	+4565.56 decimal	-15.3	-46.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Fight ends by KO/TKO	-105BetOnline	51.2%	34%	+1942.94 decimal	-17.2	-33.6%	Avoid / overpriced
Eric Nolan by decision	+240BetOnline	29.4%	12%	+7338.33 decimal	-17.4	-59.2%	Avoid / overpriced

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Analyst price notes

Written against the prices of September 30.

Every value lean on this board sits with McGee, and the best of them follow his wrestling: McGee by submission or decision at +225 (30.8% implied) carries a 48% model share, fair +108, and McGee inside the distance at +575 (model 30%, fair +233) and by submission at +750 (model 20%, fair +400) come from 1.78 takedowns per fifteen, seven career submission wins, and the 19 of 34 takedown attempts landed on Nolan in his two UFC fights. McGee by decision at +350 (model 28%, fair +257) leans on control that climbs from 42 seconds in round one to 95 in round three, while Nolan by decision at +240 (29.4% implied against 12%) and 'fight ends by KO/TKO' at -105 (51.2% against 34%) are the prices to avoid. The market and the model disagree sharply on the headline: Nolan -265 / McGee +219 is roughly 70–30 Nolan after the margin against a 58% McGee lean, and the Nolan KO/TKO (+105, model 24%) and Nolan inside-the-distance (-105, model 30%) props carry the same large gap. The market seems to be weighing McGee's age, 40, his first-round knockout losses to Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells, and Nolan's six finishes inside two rounds; the model is weighing two UFC fights in which Nolan landed 1.68 strikes per minute and spent 14:31 under control. That is a sample small enough to move a lot, so every McGee lean here is a bet against the market's read rather than a safe edge.

Conviction

4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Modest McGee lean, 58/42, conviction 4/10. The case is 4.5 SLpM, 1.78 takedowns per fifteen, and 24 UFC bouts against Nolan's two UFC appearances. Lean: Court McGee.

What backs the lean

24 completed UFC bouts against two.
4.5 significant strikes landed per minute.
1.78 takedowns per fifteen minutes.

What limits it

McGee is 40, and the Brown and Wells losses were first-round knockouts.
Nolan's two losses do not establish a ceiling.
Two UFC appearances can move the averages a lot.

Final Assessment

McGee is a tentative lean through activity and wrestling against Nolan's limited UFC sample. The route is to sustain useful pressure rather than assume a finishing mismatch.

Model split is 58/42, conviction 4/10. Method shares: McGee 10 KO / 28 decision / 20 submission; Nolan 24 KO / 12 decision / 6 submission. Fair price McGee −138 · Nolan +138. BetOnline has the fight the other way, Nolan -265 and McGee +219: the value leans sit on McGee's submission and decision routes, and the size of that moneyline gap is the reason to keep stakes modest.

McGee's career averages span twenty-four UFC fights, and four of his last five are losses. Nolan's two appearances do not establish a ceiling.

Back to UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang Fight Card