Damian Pinas vs Andrey Pulyaev – UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · MIDDLEWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

Damian Pinas

10W1L

First-Round Finisher

…

Andrey Pulyaev

10W3L

Technical Counter Striker

…

A three-minute average fight time against a man who has never been knocked out

MiddleweightDelta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah, United StatesOctober 3, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon · 4,300 ft elevation

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

The most extreme stylistic mismatch on the card, and both fighters own a superlative. Damian Pinas is 10-0 with a 100% finish rate — nine knockouts, one submission, zero decisions, eight of them in the opening round — and his UFC average fight time of 3:00 is the shortest of anyone competing in Salt Lake City. He also lands at 63% accuracy, the best figure at this event. Andrey Pulyaev owns the other end of the same fight: 55% striking defence and 2.94 significant strikes absorbed per minute against Pinas's 39% and 5.89, which are the two worst defensive numbers on the entire card. Pulyaev has never been knocked out in thirteen professional fights. His 1-3 Octagon record is also badly misleading — the three losses are to Christian Leroy Duncan, Ateba Gautier and Nursulton Ruziboev, and the first two are fighting in featured slots on this same October calendar. He took both to the scorecards. The fight is therefore a straightforward question with no data behind the answer: Pinas has never contested a third round in his professional life, and Pulyaev has never been stopped in his. Model: Pinas 58% / Pulyaev 42%, conviction 4/10.

Damian Pinas

Attribute

Andrey Pulyaev

Age

6'1" (73")

Height

6'4" (76")

79.5"

Reach

78.5"

First-round finisher — nine knockouts, zero decisions

Fighting Style

Technical counter striker

Paramaribo, Suriname

Origin

Chita, Russia

3:00 — the shortest on the card

Avg Fight Time

11:06

39%

Striking Defence

55%

2-0 in the UFC, both first-round knockouts

Recent Form

1-3 in the UFC, stopped in his last

Three inches of height to Pulyaev and an inch of reach to Pinas, which is an unusual combination and means neither man gets to fight from a comfortable distance. Pulyaev is the taller fighter and puts 22.9% of his opening-round offence in the clinch — the highest clinch share of any middleweight on this card — which is the natural answer to a shorter, longer-armed opponent who wants to swing. Pinas has no wrestling to punish a tie-up with, but he also has 86% takedown defence and cannot be dragged out of a striking match.

Venue Factor
The Delta Center's 4,300 feet is irrelevant to a fighter who has never been past minute ten and decisive to the one who might have to drag him there. Pinas has a 3:00 average fight time; Pulyaev has 11:06 and went fifteen hard minutes with Ateba Gautier in January.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Damian Pinas

Pro Record

10-1-0

UFC Record

2-0 — two first-round knockouts

Streak

Nine consecutive wins, all inside two rounds

Finish Rate

100% (10 of 10 wins) — 9 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 0 decisions

Avg Fight Time

3:00 in the UFC — the shortest on this card

Chin · Untested — never stoppedSOS · Rising — two Octagon knockouts in five monthsFirst-round finisher

Ten professional wins, ten finishes, and not one of them has reached a third round. Pinas came out of Aruba and Suriname on a run of first-round knockouts, took a Contender Series contract with a doctor stoppage of Vitor Costa in September 2025, and has since knocked out Wes Schultz in 2:30 and Cesar Almeida in 4:44 — both in the opening round, both in his first five months on the roster. His UFC average fight time of 3:00 is the shortest of anyone competing in Salt Lake City. The rate line is the most lopsided in this analysis set: 6.33 significant strikes landed per minute at 63% accuracy — the best accuracy figure on the card — behind 39% striking defence and 5.89 significant strikes absorbed per minute, the worst defensive pair anywhere on this event.

Andrey Pulyaev

Pro Record

10-3-0

UFC Record

1-3 across three scored Octagon bouts

Streak

Two straight losses

Finish Rate

80% (8 of 10 wins) — 6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 2 decisions

Avg Fight Time

11:06 in the UFC

Chin · Solid — never knocked outSOS · Tough Octagon drawTechnical counter striker

A technically sound Russian middleweight who has drawn a brutal Octagon schedule and paid for it. Pulyaev arrived via the Contender Series in August 2024 and has since faced Christian Leroy Duncan, Ateba Gautier and Nursulton Ruziboev — the first two of whom headline and co-feature elsewhere on this same October calendar — losing to all three, with a second-round knockout of Nick Klein in between. His numbers are the more disciplined of the two here: 56% striking accuracy, 55% striking defence and 2.94 significant strikes absorbed per minute, all comfortably better than his opponent's. What he lacks is a way to hurt anyone quickly — 3.60 significant strikes landed per minute is well below the middleweight baseline, and his output falls to 9.0 in an average third round.

Damian Pinas

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Andrey Pulyaev

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Damian Pinassignature weapons

The First-Round KnockoutEight of his ten wins ended in the opening round, including Cesar Almeida at 4:44 and Wes Schultz at 2:30 in his first two Octagon appearances

×9

63% AccuracyThe highest striking accuracy on this card, at 6.33 significant strikes landed per minute — he does not miss, and he does not need long

×10

Andrey Pulyaevsignature weapons

The Counter RightA knockdown average of 0.33 in an average second round and a second-round knockout of Nick Klein in August 2025

×6

Defensive Discipline55% striking defence and 2.94 significant strikes absorbed per minute — both far better than his opponent, and the reason he has never been knocked out

×10

Damian Pinas

Cesar Almeida

KO/TKO

RR1 (4:44)

UFC 329 — Jul 11, 2026

Wes Schultz

KO/TKO

RR1 (2:30)

UFC FN: Moreno vs. Kavanagh — Feb 28, 2026

Vitor Costa

TKO — Doctor's Stoppage

RR1 (1:46)

Dana White's Contender Series S9 — Sep 30, 2025

Wesley da Silva Marques

KO/TKO

RR1 (1:59)

Shooto Brazil 127 — Dec 13, 2024

Jhony Gregory

KO/TKO

RR1 (4:01)

Shooto Brazil 125 — Sep 20, 2024

Pattern

Five fights in the sample, five knockouts, four of them in the opening round, and two of those in the UFC within five months. Nobody has taken him past the second round in ten professional fights. The Cesar Almeida knockout at UFC 329 is the only one against a UFC-tenured opponent, and it is the reason he is favoured here rather than merely interesting.

Andrey Pulyaev

Nursulton Ruziboev

Submission

RR1 (3:58)

UFC FN: Fiziev vs. Torres — Jun 27, 2026

Ateba Gautier

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC 324 — Jan 24, 2026

Nick Klein

KO/TKO

RR2 (1:31)

UFC FN: Taira vs. Park — Aug 2, 2025

Christian Leroy Duncan

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Edwards vs. Brady — Mar 22, 2025

Liam Anderson

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

Dana White's Contender Series S8 — Aug 27, 2024

Pattern

One win in five, and the names matter more than the record: Christian Leroy Duncan, Ateba Gautier and Nursulton Ruziboev. He went the full fifteen minutes with two of them. The Ruziboev submission in June 2026 is the only stoppage against him in thirteen fights and it came from a genuine grappler, which is not what he is facing here.

Damian Pinas

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Andrey Pulyaev

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
The most one-sided method chart in this analysis set. Pinas has ten wins and ten finishes — a 100% rate, with eight in Round 1 and zero decisions in his entire professional career. Pulyaev's chart is ordinary by comparison: six knockouts, two submissions, two decisions. The round columns say everything the rate lines do not. Pinas has never had a professional fight reach a third round; Pulyaev has been there three times and won two of the resulting cards. In a bout where one man's entire equity is concentrated before minute six, that asymmetry is the fight.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Damian	Andrey
Ateba Gautier (also on this card)	—never faced	L· Unanimous decision (UFC 324, Jan 2026)
Gautier fights Roman Kopylov five bouts earlier on this same card. Pulyaev is the only man to take him past the second round in the UFC
Christian Leroy Duncan (level proxy)	—never faced	L· Unanimous decision (Mar 2025)
Duncan headlines the following week against Brendan Allen — Pulyaev has lost to two men fighting in main-card slots on the October calendar
Cesar Almeida (level proxy)	W· KO/TKO R1 4:44 (Jul 2026)	—never faced
Pinas's best win, and the only time either man has beaten a UFC-tenured middleweight

Andrey

The gauges favour Pulyaev by nine and the model favours Pinas by sixteen. That inversion is the whole page: composites reward the man who survives rounds, and this fight has historically not had rounds in it.

Metric	Damian	Andrey
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	3:00 (UFC)	11:06 (UFC)
Pace Tier	6.33 SLpM at 63% accuracy	3.60 SLpM at 56% accuracy
Damage Absorbed	5.89 per minute — worst on the card	2.94 per minute
Career Decisions	0 of 10 wins	2 of 10 wins
Rounds Reached	Never past Round 2 in ten fights	Three career third rounds

Archetype Base Rate

First-Round Finisher 58%42% Technical Counter Striker

No archetype base-rate row exists for this pairing · No historical archetype rate is applied. The 58/42 rests on a 100% career finish rate with eight first-round knockouts, 63% striking accuracy — the best on the card — and an opponent who is 1-3 in the Octagon and was submitted in the first round three months ago. It is capped hard by 39% striking defence and 5.89 significant strikes absorbed per minute, both the worst figures at this event, and by the fact that Pinas has never contested a third round while Pulyaev has never been knocked out.

Damian PinasAndrey Pulyaev

Middleweight

· 44 fighters

Stat	Damian	Damian rank	Div avg	Andrey rank	Andrey
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	6.33	—	~3.68	—	3.60
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	63%	—	~48%	—	56%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	39%	—	~55%	—	55%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	5.89	—	~3.42	—	2.94
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.00	—	~1.64	—	0.27
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	86%	—	~62%	—	56%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.00 (1 career sub)	—	~0.51	—	0.00 (2 career subs)
Career Finish Rate	100% (10 of 10)	—	—	—	80% (8 of 10)
UFC Record	2-0	—	—	—	1-3
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	3:00	—	—	—	11:06

Statistical Verdict
Pinas is fifteen points above the middleweight baseline on accuracy, well above it on output, and sixteen points below it on striking defence while absorbing 2.47 more strikes a minute than the division average. That is not a balanced profile, it is a specialist's. Pulyaev sits at or slightly above baseline on accuracy and defence and well below it on output — a competent fighter with no way to hurt anybody quickly. The two rows at the bottom decide it: a 100% finish rate against 80%, and a 3:00 average fight time against 11:06.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Damian Pinas

Control Time per Round (sec)

Damian Pinas

No round-by-round row exists for Damian Pinas: his UFC debut postdates the database snapshot, so nothing above is estimated.
What the verified ten-bout log shows instead: eight wins in the opening round — Almeida at 4:44, Schultz at 2:30, Costa at 1:46, Marques at 1:59, Gregory at 4:01 — and not one professional fight reaching a third round.
His UFC.com line of 6.33 significant strikes per minute at 63% accuracy is roughly six minutes of Octagon time rendered as arithmetic. So is the 39% striking defence and the 5.89 absorbed.
Ten wins, ten finishes, zero decisions. Nobody currently on this card has a cleaner finishing record.

Andrey Pulyaev

His most dangerous round is the second: output rises to 15.7 landed and his knockdown average peaks at 0.33 — the round he knocked out Nick Klein in August 2025.
Accuracy declines steadily across the fight — 53.0%, 49.5%, 37.5% — and output collapses to 9.0 in an average third round, which is the weakest late-round figure on this card.
22.9% of his Round-1 offence lands in the clinch, the highest clinch share of any middleweight here, and the natural answer to a shorter opponent with longer arms.
His Round-3 row rests on two scored rounds. He has been to the distance three times, twice against opponents fighting in featured slots on this same October calendar.

Critical Insight
One empty table and one that declines steadily, and between them the fight is unusually easy to picture. Pinas has no round-by-round data at all because he has never given anyone enough time to collect it — eight of his ten wins ended in the first five minutes. Pulyaev's numbers get worse every round: 53.0% accuracy falling to 37.5%, output collapsing from 15.7 in the second to 9.0 in the third. That means both men's evidence points the same way for opposite reasons: the fight is most likely to end early, and if it does not, neither profile suggests anyone looks good doing it.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Fighters without UFC samples are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

Damian · N/AAndrey

—Distance84%

—Clinch15%

—Ground1%

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceDamian owns it

6.33 significant strikes per minute at 63% accuracy against 3.60 at 56%, with an inch of reach

Pocket / ExchangesDamian owns it

Nine career knockouts and eight first-round finishes against 55% striking defence — but Pulyaev has never been stopped by strikes

ClinchAndrey owns it

Three inches of height to Pulyaev, who puts 22.9% of his Round-1 offence in the clinch against a man with no wrestling at all

GroundDamian owns it

86% takedown defence against 56%, and Pulyaev was submitted in the first round as recently as June 2026

Path to Victory

Damian Pinas

Land clean in the first five minutes, as he has done eight times in ten professional fights.

Why they win

A 100% career finish rate

Ten wins, ten finishes, eight in the opening round. No fighter on this card has a cleaner record.

63% striking accuracy

The highest figure at this event, at 6.33 significant strikes landed per minute against 3.60.

86% takedown defence

Against a man who attempts 0.27 takedowns per fifteen minutes. There is no route out of a striking match for Pulyaev.

Five years younger

24 against 29, with two Octagon knockouts in his first five months on the roster.

His opponent was submitted three months ago

Nursulton Ruziboev tapped Pulyaev in the first round in June 2026 — the first stoppage against him in thirteen fights.

An inch of reach

Small, but it means the taller man cannot simply outrange him.

The gameplan

1
Start immediately
Eight of ten career wins ended in Round 1. Every minute that passes moves the fight toward the only territory he has never visited.
2
Use the reach, not the pocket
An inch of reach and 63% accuracy is enough to work from outside; 39% striking defence is not enough to trade inside.
3
Stay off the fence
Pulyaev puts 22.9% of his first-round offence in the clinch and is three inches taller. The tie-up is the one place Pinas's numbers stop helping.
4
Attack the body if the head is not there
Pulyaev's output collapses to 9.0 in a third round. Body work is the cheapest way to bring that collapse forward.
5
Do not chase after the second horn
If the fight is alive at minute ten, the correct move is range and volume rather than a finish he has never had to hunt that late.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If two rounds pass without a knockdown, Pinas has to accept a decision he has never won and fight for output rather than the finish.

Path to Victory

Andrey Pulyaev

Survive to minute six. His opponent has never been there and has 39% striking defence when he arrives.

Why they win

Never knocked out in thirteen fights

Against an opponent whose entire case is a first-round knockout. It is the single most relevant fact on his side.

Sixteen points of striking defence

55% against 39%, with 2.94 significant strikes absorbed per minute against 5.89 — the two worst defensive figures on the card belong to Pinas.

11:06 of average fight time

Against 3:00. He has contested three third rounds; his opponent has contested none in ten professional fights.

Three inches of height and a real clinch game

22.9% of his opening-round offence lands in the clinch, against a man with no wrestling to punish a tie-up.

A schedule his record does not reflect

Losses to Christian Leroy Duncan and Ateba Gautier — both featured on this month's cards — and he took both the full fifteen minutes.

A 0.33 second-round knockdown average

Aimed at 39% striking defence. He does not need long either, if he gets there.

The gameplan

1
Survive the first five minutes above all else
Eight of his opponent's ten wins ended there. Nothing else on this list matters if that round is lost.
2
Use the height and the clinch
22.9% of his opening-round offence already lands there, against a man with zero takedown attempts per fifteen minutes and no way to punish it.
3
Counter the entry
Pinas lands at 63% but defends at 39%. Every exchange he initiates is an opening for a knockdown average that peaks at 0.33 in the second.
4
Make it a third round
His opponent has never fought one. His own is poor — 9.0 landed at 37.5% — and it is still infinitely more evidence than the other side of the cage has.
5
Do not chase the knockout
He has six career knockouts but 3.60 significant strikes per minute. Volume is not his weapon; timing is.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If he is hurt early, the clinch and the fence are the answer rather than movement — Pinas has no wrestling and cannot capitalise on a tie-up.

Danger Zone

How Damian Pinas loses

He misses in the first five minutes for the first time in his career, and finds himself in a round he has literally never fought, at 4,300 feet.
His 39% striking defence meets the 0.33 second-round knockdown average of a man who has knocked out six professionals.
Pulyaev uses three inches of height and a 22.9% clinch share to smother him against the fence, where he has no wrestling and no data.

Danger Zone

How Andrey Pulyaev loses

He is caught inside five minutes by the highest-accuracy striker on the card, as eight of ten previous opponents have been.
His accuracy declines the way it always does — 53.0% to 37.5% — and he cannot punish a defensively porous opponent before the porousness stops mattering.
He fights not to lose against a man who has never lost a first round, and gives away the only phase where he has an edge.

The shortest average on the card

Three Minutes

Damian Pinas has an average UFC fight time of 3:00 — no other fighter competing in Salt Lake City is close. Ten professional wins, ten finishes, eight of them in the opening round, and not a single decision in his career. He has never contested a third round anywhere.

3:00

Pinas's average UFC fight time

Both belong to the same man

The Best and Worst Numbers on the Card

Pinas has 63% striking accuracy — the highest figure at this event — and 39% striking defence with 5.89 significant strikes absorbed per minute, the two worst. He is simultaneously the most efficient and the most hittable fighter on the card, which is exactly what a 100% finish rate and a 3:00 average fight time look like from the inside.

63% / 39%

accuracy and striking defence

Why 1-3 understates him

Pulyaev's Schedule Is the Story

Andrey Pulyaev has lost to Christian Leroy Duncan, Ateba Gautier and Nursulton Ruziboev. Duncan headlines the following week; Gautier fights five bouts earlier on this very card. He took both to the scorecards. A 1-3 Octagon record earned against that schedule is not the same as a 1-3 record earned against anyone else.

The core exchange

One Man Has Never Been Hit and One Has Never Been Missed

Pulyaev has never been knocked out in thirteen professional fights and defends 55% of significant strikes. Pinas lands at 63% and has finished ten of ten. Something has to give in the first five minutes, and neither fighter has any evidence about what happens if it does not.

times Pulyaev has been knocked out

And one has been submitted this year

Neither Man Wrestles

Pinas attempts zero takedowns per fifteen minutes; Pulyaev attempts 0.27. The only relevant grappling fact is defensive: Nursulton Ruziboev submitted Pulyaev in the first round in June 2026, and Pulyaev defends only 56% of takedowns against Pinas's 86%.

The Five-Round Clock

Damian Pinas danger windowAndrey Pulyaev danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Where nine of ten have ended

Eight of Pinas's ten career wins finished here, including Almeida at 4:44 and Schultz at 2:30. Pulyaev's first round is his most accurate at 53.0% but his quietest at 11.7 landed, with nine seconds of control — he does not start fast and he cannot afford not to.

Critical Insight
The most front-loaded clock on the entire card. Eight of Damian Pinas's ten professional wins ended in the opening five minutes and he has never once contested a third round; Andrey Pulyaev's accuracy falls from 53.0% to 37.5% and his output from 15.7 to 9.0 across the same fifteen minutes. Roughly half of the total finishing equity in this bout resolves before the first horn. After that the fight becomes something neither man has evidence for — Pinas because he has never been there, Pulyaev because when he has, he has not looked good.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Damian Pinas is 10-0 with a 100% finish rate, eight first-round wins, and a UFC average fight time of 3:00 — the shortest at this event.

He also owns the two worst defensive figures on the card: 39% striking defence and 5.89 significant strikes absorbed per minute, against a man who has never been knocked out in thirteen fights.

Model: Pinas 58% / Pulyaev 42%, conviction 4/10 — and his 47% knockout bucket is the largest single outcome anywhere in this analysis set.

100 Simulated Fights

Pinas KO/TKO — 47%Pulyaev Decision — 20%Pulyaev KO/TKO — 17%Pinas Decision — 8%Pinas Submission — 3%Pulyaev Submission — 5%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Damian Pinas gold · Andrey Pulyaev orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

A 100% career finish rate

Ten wins, ten finishes, eight in Round 1, and a UFC average fight time of 3:00 — the shortest at this event.

The best and worst numbers on the card

Pinas owns 63% striking accuracy and also 39% striking defence with 5.89 absorbed per minute. He is the most efficient and most hittable fighter here.

Pulyaev has never been knocked out

Thirteen professional fights and one stoppage loss, a submission. It is the single strongest argument against the favourite.

The third-round vacuum

Pinas has never contested one in ten fights; Pulyaev has three and averages 11:06 per Octagon appearance.

Pulyaev's schedule

His 1-3 UFC record was earned against Christian Leroy Duncan, Ateba Gautier and Nursulton Ruziboev — two of whom appear on this month's cards.

No wrestling on either side

Zero takedown attempts per fifteen from Pinas and 0.27 from Pulyaev. This is a striking projection with a wide error bar.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

Ten for Ten Becomes Eleven

Pinas lands at 63% accuracy — the best figure on the card — and eight of his ten career wins have ended in the opening round. Pulyaev is the most accurate counter-striker he has faced but he has also never had to survive this. The single largest bucket in this analysis set.

Scripted outcomes for Damian Pinas vs Andrey Pulyaev — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Damian Pinas win probability

47%

KO/TKODECSUB

The largest single bucket anywhere in this analysis set. Nine career knockouts, eight first-round finishes, 63% accuracy, and an opponent who defends 55% but has never faced this kind of volume-plus-precision combination.
Deliberately tiny. He has zero decisions in ten professional wins and has never contested a third round. Winning fifteen minutes would be the least-rehearsed thing he has ever attempted.
One career submission, a D'Arce choke in 2023, against a man tapped in the first round as recently as June 2026. Small but not zero.

Andrey Pulyaev win probability

17%

20%

KO/TKODECSUB

Six career knockouts and a 0.33 second-round knockdown average, aimed at 39% striking defence and 5.89 significant strikes absorbed per minute — the softest surface on this card.
His largest bucket and his only well-rehearsed path: 11:06 of average fight time, three career third rounds, and an opponent who has never seen one.
Two career submissions, and the reason this is not zero is that Pinas has no wrestling at all — 0.00 takedowns attempted per fifteen minutes means every scramble is unfamiliar territory for him too.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Damian

Andrey

29-28 Pulyaev

Pinas takes the first on volume; Pulyaev takes the last two as the pace falls off

The most likely card — but only 28% of simulations reach one

30-27 Pulyaev

The counter game works from the opening bell and Pinas never lands clean

His Gautier template, which went the full fifteen minutes

29-28 Pinas

He wins the first two on damage and holds on through a round he has never fought

Rare — he has zero decisions in ten professional wins

Moneyline

Damian Pinas

Not posted

Andrey Pulyaev

Not posted

No book has published a line for this bout at the time of writing. Converting our own probabilities gives fair prices of Damian Pinas -138 from 58% and Andrey Pulyaev +138 from 42% — model outputs, not quotes. Live prices appear in the hero above once a market opens.

Props: model vs market

Prop	Odds	Implied %	Model %	Fair	Edge	Verdict

Best Value
Pinas inside the first round is the honest expression of this projection — eight of ten career wins ended there and 30% of simulations do too. The contrarian ticket is the fight going the distance: only 28% of simulations reach the cards, which will look low to anyone who notices that Pulyaev has never been knocked out in thirteen fights and took Ateba Gautier the full fifteen minutes in January. If the market prices Pinas as a heavy favourite on the highlight reel, Pulyaev by decision at 20% is the value side.

Conviction

4/10

A strong directional lean on a very thin base. Pinas has finished all ten of his professional opponents, eight in the opening round, and lands at 63% — the best accuracy figure at this event. That profile has to be respected against a man who is 1-3 in the Octagon and was submitted in the first round three months ago. What holds it at four is that his entire rate line comes from roughly six minutes of UFC cage time, his 39% striking defence and 5.89 strikes absorbed per minute are the worst numbers on the card, and Andrey Pulyaev has never been knocked out in thirteen professional fights. Lean: Damian Pinas.

What backs the lean

A 100% career finish rate — ten wins, ten finishes, eight in the opening round.
63% striking accuracy at 6.33 significant strikes per minute, the best offensive pair on the card.
Two Octagon knockouts in his first five months, including UFC-tenured Cesar Almeida.
86% takedown defence against a man who attempts 0.27 takedowns per fifteen minutes.
Pulyaev is 1-3 in the UFC and was submitted in the first round in June 2026.
Five years younger, with an inch of reach.

What limits it

Pulyaev has never been knocked out in thirteen professional fights.
39% striking defence and 5.89 significant strikes absorbed per minute — the two worst figures at this event.
Pinas has never contested a third round in ten professional bouts, at a 4,300-foot venue.
11:06 of average fight time against 3:00, and three career third rounds against none.
Pulyaev's losses are to Duncan, Gautier and Ruziboev — he took two of them the full fifteen minutes.
Pinas's entire rate line derives from roughly six minutes of Octagon time.

Final Assessment

In roughly fifty-eight of one hundred simulations Damian Pinas wins, and in forty-seven of those he ends it by strike — thirty of them in the opening round, which is exactly where eight of his ten career wins have already finished. The mechanism is 6.33 significant strikes landed per minute at 63% accuracy, the best offensive pair at this event, against a fighter who is 1-3 in the Octagon and was tapped inside a round three months ago.

In the other forty-two, the three minutes run out. Andrey Pulyaev has never been knocked out in thirteen professional fights, defends 55% of significant strikes to Pinas's 39%, absorbs 2.94 per minute to 5.89, and has contested three third rounds against an opponent who has contested none. Twenty of those simulations are Pulyaev decisions and seventeen are knockouts landing on the softest defensive line on the card.

This is a fight with a genuinely bimodal shape and very little middle ground. Half the total finishing equity resolves before the first horn, and the fighter who is 10-0 with a 100% finish rate has never once had to learn what happens afterwards. On October 3 in Salt Lake City, at 4,300 feet — Pinas 58% / Pulyaev 42%, conviction 4/10.

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