Damian Pinas vs Andrey Pulyaev – UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · MIDDLEWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

Damian Pinas

10W1L

Power Striker

Andrey Pulyaev

10W5L

Range Striker

Pinas's bursts versus Pulyaev's structure

MiddleweightDelta Center, Salt Lake City, UtahOctober 3, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon · prelim middleweight

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Pinas has never needed a second round in the Octagon: both of his UFC wins were first-round knockouts, built on explosive bursts that leave him open when he over-commits. Pulyaev has to take those first attacks with his structure intact, counter the overextension and keep changing the rhythm between exchanges. The longer it runs, the more it bends toward Pulyaev's defence and experience going the distance.

Paths that change the fight

Damian PinasAttack selectively, land the opening burst behind 6.33 SLpM and 6.67 KD/15, recover balance after every exchange, and never let Pulyaev settle into a comfortable reset.
Andrey PulyaevDefend the first attack with position intact, counter the overextension, and make Pinas work through repeated defended exchanges — 2.94 SApM and 55% striking defence are the base for a three-round win.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10

Pinas lands 6.33 per minute with 6.67 knockdowns per fifteen across two first-round finishes.
Pulyaev is 1-3 in the UFC, most recently submitted in the first round by Nursulton Ruziboev.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Damian Pinas

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 49%
Fair odds: +104

Reference quote: -500 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.04

Andrey Pulyaev

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 51%
Fair odds: -104

Reference quote: +383 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.96

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, simulation buckets, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Pinas has knocked out nine of the ten men he has beaten and made a violent start to his UFC career, while Pulyaev arrives needing a result after back-to-back losses. It is burst against structure, and the burst is louder than it is tidy. For everything Pinas lands he takes plenty back, which rewards a patient, harder-to-hit opponent, and that is exactly how Pulyaev wants to fight. The swing factor is Pulyaev's composure early, because his last fight slipped away inside the first round.

Damian Pinas

Attribute

Andrey Pulyaev

Age

6' 1"

Height

+3" Pulyaev6' 4"

79.5"+1" Pinas

Reach

78.5"

10-1-0

Pro Record

10-5-0

2-0

UFC Record

1-3

Striker — 6.33 SLpM, 9 KO/TKO wins

Fighting Style

Striker — 55% StrDef, 2.94 SApM

Pulyaev is three inches taller at 6'4" to Pinas's 6'1", but Pinas carries the longer reach — 79.5 inches to 78.5 — so the height edge does not translate into extra range. Pinas is four years younger at 24.

Venue Factor
Three rounds reward the fighter who controls the rhythm after the opening exchange. Both of Pinas's UFC wins ended in the first round; Pulyaev has gone the full fifteen minutes twice in the UFC and needs to drag Pinas past the early burst.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Damian Pinas

Pro Record

10-1-0

UFC Record

2-0

Streak

Two straight UFC wins — KO/TKO of Wes Schultz and Cesar Almeida

Finish Rate

9 of 10 wins by KO/TKO

Avg Fight Time

Both UFC wins ended in round one

Chin · UnprovenSOS · Two-fight UFCEarly finisher

Pinas is 10-1 and 2-0 in the UFC, knocking out Wes Schultz in February 2026 and Cesar Almeida at UFC 329 in July — both in the first round. He lands 6.33 and absorbs 5.89 significant strikes per minute.

Andrey Pulyaev

Pro Record

10-5-0

UFC Record

1-3

Streak

Two straight losses — latest a submission by Nursulton Ruziboev (Jun 2026)

Finish Rate

8 of 10 wins by finish (6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)

Avg Fight Time

Two of four UFC fights went 15:00

Chin · AverageSOS · UFC middleweightRange striker

Pulyaev is 10-5 and 1-3 in the UFC: a decision loss to Christian Leroy Duncan in March 2025, a second-round KO/TKO of Nick Klein in August 2025, a decision loss to Ateba Gautier at UFC 324 in January 2026, and a first-round submission loss to Nursulton Ruziboev in June 2026.

Damian Pinas

0.00 dealt · — absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns per 15 minutes.

Andrey Pulyaev

0.00 dealt · — absorbed

Damian Pinassignature weapons

KO/TKOLatest: Cesar Almeida, UFC 329, Jul 2026 — 6.67 knockdowns per 15 minutes in the UFC

×9

Andrey Pulyaevsignature weapons

KO/TKOLatest: Nick Klein, UFC Fight Night, Aug 2025 — his one UFC win, in round two

×6

SubmissionTwo career submission wins

×2

Damian Pinas

Cesar Almeida

KO/TKO

Opponent context: ufc

UFC 329 — Jul 2026

Wes Schultz

KO/TKO

Opponent context: ufc

UFC Fight Night — Feb 2026

Pattern

Both of Pinas’s UFC wins are first-round knockouts, against Wes Schultz and Cesar Almeida — he has not needed a second round in the Octagon.

Andrey Pulyaev

Nursulton Ruziboev

SUB — Rear-Naked Choke

Opponent context: ufc

UFC Fight Night — Jun 2026

Ateba Gautier

Decision

Opponent context: ufc

UFC 324 — Jan 2026

Nick Klein

KO/TKO

Opponent context: ufc

UFC Fight Night — Aug 2025

Christian Leroy Duncan

Decision

Opponent context: ufc

UFC Fight Night — Mar 2025

Pattern

Pulyaev’s one UFC win is a second-round KO/TKO of Nick Klein. Two of his three UFC losses went the full fifteen minutes; the latest, against Nursulton Ruziboev, ended by first-round submission.

Damian Pinas

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Andrey Pulyaev

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Pinas has won nine of his ten pro fights by KO/TKO. Pulyaev's ten wins split six KO/TKO, two submissions and two decisions. The round bars count UFC wins only: both of Pinas's ended in round one, and Pulyaev's one UFC win, over Nick Klein, came in round two.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Damian	Andrey
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	Two-fight UFC — Both UFC wins are first-round knockouts; he absorbs 5.89 significant strikes per minute.	UFC middleweight — KO/TKO of Nick Klein; losses to Christian Leroy Duncan, Ateba Gautier and Nursulton Ruziboev
UFC sample	2-0	1-3
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	0 elite · 0 veteran tier	0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window tier points tied in the last-five sample — compare SOS notes and methods, not volume alone.
Last three opponents	Cesar Almeida, Wes Schultz	Nursulton Ruziboev, Ateba Gautier, Nick Klein

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

Damianfew UFC fights

Andreyfew UFC fights

Pinas owns output and accuracy (6.33 SLpM at 63% vs 3.6 at 56%); Pulyaev owns defence (55% vs 39%) and absorbs half as much (2.94 vs 5.89 per minute).

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

Damianfew UFC fights

Andreyfew UFC fights

Near level and low on both sides: Pulyaev's 0.27 TD/15 is the only takedown rate in the matchup, neither fighter has a submission attempt per fifteen, and Pinas's 86% takedown defence tops Pulyaev's 56%.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

Damianfew UFC fights

Andreyfew UFC fights

A two-point gap — Pinas's output edge against Pulyaev's defence and absorption. Which half of the striking ledger holds up decides it.

Metric	Damian	Andrey
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	6.33few UFC fights	3.60
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	5.89few UFC fights	2.94
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	39%few UFC fights	55%
KD/15	6.67few UFC fights	0.27
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	86%few UFC fights	56%

Archetype Base Rate

Power Striker 49%51% Range Striker

MMA Analytics model lean · 49/51 lean to Pulyaev: 2.94 absorbed per minute and 55% striking defence against Pinas's 6.33 SLpM and 6.67 knockdowns per fifteen across two UFC finishes.

Damian PinasAndrey Pulyaev

Middleweight

No comparable division benchmark is published for this sample. These values describe each fighter; no division rank is assigned.

Stat	Damian	Andrey
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	6.33	3.60
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	63%	56%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	39%	55%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	5.89	2.94
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0	0.27
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	86%	56%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0	0
KD/15	6.67	0.27

Statistical Verdict
Pinas leads output (6.33 SLpM at 63% accuracy), knockdowns (6.67 to 0.27 per fifteen) and takedown defence (86% to 56%). Pulyaev leads striking defence (55% to 39%) and strikes absorbed (2.94 to 5.89 per minute). Neither fighter has a submission attempt per fifteen, and Pulyaev's 0.27 takedowns per fifteen is the only takedown rate on either side.

Damian Pinas

Both of Pinas's UFC fights ended in the first round — a KO/TKO of Wes Schultz in February 2026 and of Cesar Almeida at UFC 329 in July.
He lands 6.33 significant strikes per minute at 63% accuracy with 6.67 knockdowns per fifteen, but absorbs 5.89 per minute behind 39% striking defence.
His UFC output so far is all striking: 0 takedowns and 0 submission attempts per fifteen.

Andrey Pulyaev

Two of Pulyaev's four UFC fights went the full fifteen minutes — decision losses to Christian Leroy Duncan in March 2025 and Ateba Gautier in January 2026.
His one UFC win was a second-round KO/TKO of Nick Klein in August 2025.
His most recent fight ended in a first-round submission loss to Nursulton Ruziboev in June 2026.
He absorbs 2.94 significant strikes per minute with 55% striking defence — half of Pinas's absorption rate.

Critical Insight
Pinas has not needed a second round in the UFC; Pulyaev has gone the full fifteen minutes twice. The longer the fight runs, the more it tests whether Pinas's output and absorption hold up past the opening exchange — Pulyaev's route is to defend the first attacks with his structure intact and make the later rounds his.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceDamian owns it

6.33 SLpM at 63% vs 3.6 at 56% — Pulyaev's 55% StrDef and taller frame keep it close

Pocket / ExchangesDamian owns it

6.67 KD/15 vs 0.27 — but Pinas's 39% StrDef and 5.89 SApM leave him hittable too

ClinchEven

0.27 TD/15 for Pulyaev vs 0 for Pinas, and no submission attempts on either side

GroundAndrey owns it

Two career submission wins for Pulyaev vs Pinas's 0 Sub/15 — Pinas's 86% TDDef keeps it a rare phase

Path to Victory

Damian Pinas

Attack selectively, land the opening burst behind 6.33 SLpM and 6.67 KD/15, recover balance after every exchange, and never let Pulyaev settle into a comfortable reset.

Why they win

Striking output

6.33 significant strikes per minute at 63% accuracy, against Pulyaev's 3.6 at 56%.

Knockdown power

6.67 knockdowns per fifteen in the UFC and nine KO/TKO wins in ten pro victories.

Takedown defence

86% takedown defence against Pulyaev's 56% — and Pulyaev lands only 0.27 takedowns per fifteen.

Reach

79.5-inch reach, an inch longer than Pulyaev's 78.5 despite giving up three inches of height.

Youth and momentum

24 years old and 2-0 in the UFC, both wins by first-round knockout.

The gameplan

1
Attack selectively
Pick the moments for the burst rather than chasing exchanges — 63% accuracy rewards clean, chosen entries.
2
Recover balance
Reset position after every combination so Pulyaev's counters find nothing to hit.
3
Deny the reset
Keep Pulyaev from settling into range between exchanges.
4
Use the reach
79.5 inches against 78.5 — enough to strike from the edge of range.
5
Win the opening exchange
Both UFC wins ended in round one — the KO/TKO path holds 42 of his 49 model points.

Path to Victory

Andrey Pulyaev

Defend the first attack with position intact, counter the overextension, and make Pinas work through repeated defended exchanges — 2.94 SApM and 55% striking defence are the base for a three-round win.

Why they win

Striking defence

55% striking defence against Pinas's 39%.

Absorption

2.94 significant strikes absorbed per minute — half of Pinas's 5.89.

Fifteen-minute experience

Two of his four UFC fights went the full three rounds; Pinas has not needed a second round in the Octagon.

Frame

Three inches taller at 6'4" to Pinas's 6'1".

Finishing range

Six KO/TKO and two submission wins in ten pro victories, including a second-round stoppage of Nick Klein.

The gameplan

1
Defend the first attack
Keep position intact through Pinas's opening burst — 55% striking defence is the base.
2
Counter the overextension
Pinas absorbs 5.89 per minute with 39% defence; make him pay when he over-commits.
3
Vary the rhythm
Change the timing of the next exchange so Pinas cannot reload the same entry.
4
Work from the taller frame
Three inches of height help him hold range at the end of his own strikes.
5
Drag it long
Two of his four UFC fights went fifteen minutes; 24 of his 51 model points are decisions.

Danger Zone

How Damian Pinas loses

The opening burst does not land clean, and the fight becomes a fifteen-minute test he has not yet faced in the UFC.
Pressure turns into uncontrolled trading, and his 39% striking defence and 5.89 absorbed per minute hand Pulyaev's counters a target.
Pulyaev defends the first attacks with his structure intact and banks the later rounds on lower absorption.

Danger Zone

How Andrey Pulyaev loses

Pinas converts the opening burst before Pulyaev's structure and resets take over — the model's primary reversal.
His 55% striking defence is not enough against 6.67 knockdowns per fifteen in the first exchanges.
The fight never settles into his rhythm, and Pinas's 6.33 SLpM out-lands his 3.6 over three rounds.

Matchup interpretation

The phase that changes the comparison

Pinas's striking and knockdown rates reflect a short, explosive sample, accompanied by considerable absorption. Pulyaev's route is to preserve structure and make Pinas work through repeated defended attacks. Pinas needs clean openings without turning pressure into uncontrolled trading.

Counterargument

What would change the selection

Pinas's knockdown rate is particularly sensitive to short fights. If Pulyaev can make him work beyond the opening exchanges, the lean holds; if the burst lands first, it flips.

3 rounds

Distance and repeatability

The numerical extremes describe a small sample, not a stable forecast of pace or finishing rate. Three five-minute rounds test whether Pinas's output holds past the opening exchange.

model win % for Pinas

Striking ledger

The absorption gap

Pinas absorbs 5.89 significant strikes per minute to Pulyaev's 2.94 — the price of his output, and the opening Pulyaev's counters are built to exploit.

5.89

Pinas strikes absorbed per minute

Method split

Decision path

Twenty-four of Pulyaev's fifty-one model points are decisions — his main route is surviving the opening burst and winning fifteen minutes on lower absorption.

Pulyaev decision share (%)

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 4 things

Damian Pinas's 6.33 SLpM at 63% accuracy and 6.67 knockdowns per fifteen make the opening burst the fight's biggest single threat — 42 of his 49 model points are KO/TKO.

Andrey Pulyaev's 2.94 absorbed per minute and 55% striking defence are the repeatable route: defend the first attack, counter the overextension, and drag Pinas past the opening exchange.

Model: Pinas 49% / Pulyaev 51%, conviction 4/10, fair price Pinas +104 / Pulyaev −104. BetOnline makes Pinas a -500 favourite with Pulyaev at +383 — an 80–20 no-vig split against a model that leans the other way.

The market and the model agree on the shape of this fight — Fight goes the distance is priced at 28.6% against a 29% model share, and a KO/TKO finish at 69.2% against 64% — and disagree only on who lands. BetOnline prices Pinas by KO/TKO at 64.9% and Pulyaev by KO/TKO at 9.1%; the model has them at 42 and 22.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Pinas Decision — 5%Pinas KO/TKO — 42%Pinas Submission — 2%Pulyaev KO/TKO — 22%Pulyaev Decision — 24%Pulyaev Submission — 5%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Damian Pinas gold · Andrey Pulyaev orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The opening exchange

The central question: a short, explosive opening favours Pinas; long stretches of reset-and-defend exchanges favour Pulyaev's structure.

Output vs. efficiency

6.33 SLpM and 6.67 KD/15 against 2.94 absorbed per minute and 55% striking defence defines the fork.

Pinas's defence

39% striking defence and 5.89 absorbed per minute keep Pulyaev's counters live even if Pinas wins the volume.

Pulyaev's form

1-3 in the UFC, most recently a first-round submission loss to Nursulton Ruziboev — part of why conviction sits at 4/10.

Sample size

Two UFC fights for Pinas, both short knockouts — his rates are extreme partly because the sample is small, and one exchange moves them sharply.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Opening Burst

Pinas lands clean in the early exchanges and his knockdown power ends it — his largest path by far, and the model's primary reversal.

Scripted outcomes for Damian Pinas vs Andrey Pulyaev — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Damian Pinas win probability

42%

KO/TKODECSUB

Forty-two points — both UFC wins are first-round knockouts and he lands 6.67 knockdowns per fifteen; his largest bucket by far.
Five points — neither UFC fight has gone past the first round.
Two points — no takedowns or submission attempts per fifteen; tail only.

Andrey Pulyaev win probability

22%

24%

KO/TKODECSUB

Twenty-two points — six career KO/TKO wins, including the Klein finish, against Pinas's 39% striking defence.
Twenty-four points — his largest bucket; two of his four UFC fights went the full fifteen minutes, and 2.94 absorbed per minute suits a long fight.
Five points — two career submission wins and no UFC submission attempts; tail only.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Damian

Andrey

29-28 Pulyaev

Pinas's burst takes R1; Pulyaev's defence and counters win R2 and R3

Modal card inside Pulyaev's 24% decision share

30-27 Pulyaev

Pulyaev blunts the opening burst and controls all three rounds on lower absorption

Live if Pinas's early output does not land clean

29-28 Pinas

Pinas's output wins two rounds without a finish

Main path inside Pinas's 5% decision share

Model and price

Damian Pinas

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 49%
Fair odds: +104

Reference quote: -500 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.04

Estimated EV: -41.2%
Edge vs no-vig market: -31.1 pp

Andrey Pulyaev

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 51%
Fair odds: -104

Reference quote: +383 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.96

Estimated EV: +146.3%
Edge vs no-vig market: +31.1 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Damian Pinas

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.05 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Andrey Pulyaev

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.97 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

5 value leans6 large gaps3 fair4 avoid

Andrey Pulyaev inside the distance (no action on a decision)+350+15.8ppAndrey Pulyaev by KO/TKO+1000+12.9ppAndrey Pulyaev wins inside the distance+600+12.7ppAndrey Pulyaev by submission or decision+450+10.8pp+1 more in table

Full prop table (18)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
Prop	Reference quote	Implied %	Model %	Fair odds	Difference (pp)	Estimated EV	Our read
Andrey Pulyaev inside the distance (no action on a decision)	+350BetOnline	22.2%	38%	+1632.63 decimal	+15.8	+71.0%	Value lean
Andrey Pulyaev by KO/TKO	+1000BetOnline	9.1%	22%	+3554.55 decimal	+12.9	+142.0%	Value lean
Andrey Pulyaev wins inside the distance	+600BetOnline	14.3%	27%	+2703.70 decimal	+12.7	+89.0%	Value lean
Andrey Pulyaev by submission or decision	+450BetOnline	18.2%	29%	+2453.45 decimal	+10.8	+59.5%	Value lean
Andrey Pulyaev by decision	+600BetOnline	14.3%	24%	+3174.17 decimal	+9.7	+68.0%	Value lean
Andrey Pulyaev by KO/TKO or decision	+415BetOnline	19.4%	46%	+1172.17 decimal	+26.6	+136.9%	Large gap — review
Damian Pinas inside the distance (no action on a decision)	-500BetOnline	83.3%	62%	-1631.61 decimal	-21.3	-25.6%	Large gap — review
Damian Pinas by submission or decision	+250BetOnline	28.6%	7%	+132914.29 decimal	-21.6	-75.5%	Large gap — review
Damian Pinas by KO/TKO	-185BetOnline	64.9%	42%	+1382.38 decimal	-22.9	-35.3%	Large gap — review
Damian Pinas wins inside the distance	-225BetOnline	69.2%	44%	+1272.27 decimal	-25.2	-36.4%	Large gap — review
Damian Pinas by KO/TKO or decision	-400BetOnline	80.0%	47%	+1132.13 decimal	-33.0	-41.3%	Large gap — review
Fight goes the distance	+250BetOnline	28.6%	29%	+2453.45 decimal	+0.4	+1.5%	Fair price
Fight ends by KO/TKO	-225BetOnline	69.2%	64%	-1781.56 decimal	-5.2	-7.6%	Fair price
Fight does not go the distance	-325BetOnline	76.5%	71%	-2451.41 decimal	-5.5	-7.2%	Fair price
Andrey Pulyaev by submission	+1600BetOnline	5.9%	5%	+190020.00 decimal	-0.9	-15.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Fight ends by submission	+600BetOnline	14.3%	7%	+132914.29 decimal	-7.3	-51.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Damian Pinas by submission	+900BetOnline	10.0%	2%	+490050.00 decimal	-8.0	-80.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Damian Pinas by decision	+400BetOnline	20.0%	5%	+190020.00 decimal	-15.0	-75.0%	Avoid / overpriced

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Analyst price notes

Written against the prices of September 30.

Every value lean on this board sits on Pulyaev's side: Pulyaev by decision at +600 (model 24%, fair +317), Pulyaev by KO/TKO at +1000 (model 22%, fair +355) and Pulyaev wins inside the distance at +600 (model 27%, fair +270). The model likes those routes because Pinas absorbs 5.89 significant strikes per minute behind 39% striking defence, while Pulyaev absorbs 2.94 and has gone fifteen minutes twice in the UFC — the longer the fight runs, the more it bends his way. But market and model disagree sharply on the winner: BetOnline has Pinas at -500, an 80–20 no-vig favourite, against the model's 49%, and Pinas by KO/TKO (-185 against 42%), Pinas wins inside the distance (-225 against 44%) and Pulyaev by KO/TKO or decision (+415 against 46%) all carry the Large gap — review flag. Weigh that seriously before acting on any Pulyaev lean: Pinas is 2-0 with two first-round knockouts and 6.67 knockdowns per fifteen, Pulyaev is 1-3 in the UFC and was submitted in the first round by Ruziboev in June, and the model's case rests on Pinas's rates coming from two short fights — a small sample that cuts both ways. Avoid Pinas by decision at +400 (20% implied against a 5% model share) and Fight ends by submission at +600 (14.3% implied, model 7%).

Conviction

4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Modest Pulyaev lean, 51/49, conviction 4/10. The case is 2.94 absorbed and 55% striking defence against Pinas's two-fight finishing sample. Lean: Andrey Pulyaev.

What backs the lean

2.94 strikes absorbed per minute and 55% striking defence.
Pinas's 39% striking defence and 5.89 absorbed per minute give Pulyaev's counters a target.
Two full fifteen-minute UFC fights; Pinas has not yet needed a second round.

What limits it

Pinas lands 6.33 per minute with 6.67 knockdowns per fifteen across two first-round finishes.
Pulyaev is 1-3 in the UFC, most recently submitted in the first round by Nursulton Ruziboev.
Both UFC samples are small, and Pinas's knockdown rate can end the fight before Pulyaev's structure matters.

Final Assessment

Pinas's explosive output and Pulyaev's lower absorption describe a pace-versus-efficiency contest. Pinas lands 6.33 and absorbs 5.89 per minute across two first-round knockouts; Pulyaev lands 3.6 and absorbs 2.94, and is 1-3 in the UFC.

The model leans Pulyaev 51% to Pinas 49% with conviction 4 out of 10 because the repeatable route is structure and lower absorption over three rounds, while the primary reversal is Pinas converting the opening burst before resets take over. Method shares: Pinas 42 KO / 5 decision / 2 submission; Pulyaev 22 KO / 24 decision / 5 submission. Fair moneyline: Pulyaev −104 · Pinas +104, against BetOnline's Pinas -500 · Pulyaev +383.

The read: respect Pinas's knockdown rate — built in two short fights — as live, and take Pulyaev narrowly on damage economy over three rounds. At -500 the market treats that knockdown rate as close to decisive and the model does not, which is why every value lean on the board sits with Pulyaev at long prices — and why his 1-3 UFC record and recent first-round submission loss call for caution before backing any of them.

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