Alden Coria vs Imanol Rodriguez: analysis & prediction

PRELIM · FLYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 332: Silva vs. Wang
Alden Coria — Flyweight fighter

Alden Coria

13W3L
Chain Grappler
VS
Imanol Rodriguez — Flyweight fighter

Imanol Rodriguez

7W0L
Power Striker

Coria's entries versus Rodriguez's early power

FlyweightDelta Center, Salt Lake City, UtahOctober 3, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon · prelim flyweight

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Rodriguez is unbeaten with every win inside the distance, and he wants this settled early by countering Coria on the way in. Coria's path is chaining entries so a stuffed takedown leads straight into the next attempt, then securing position before hunting the submission. If Rodriguez keeps separating and resetting to open space, his sharper hands take over; once the chains stick, the later rounds tilt toward Coria.

Paths that change the fight

  • Alden CoriaConnect takedown entries into secure positions, keep the 1.47 Sub/15 threat live, and make Rodriguez defend consecutive actions until the grappling chains accumulate over three rounds.
  • Imanol RodriguezCounter Coria's approach without overextending, separate before he can settle, and land the early power behind six KO/TKO wins before the grappling builds.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • Rodriguez's 5.71 SLpM at 56% accuracy out-lands Coria's 4.05 at 42% on the feet.
  • Six KO/TKO wins in seven fights and 5.19 KD/15 — the primary reversal is early power before the grappling chains build.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Alden Coria

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
52%
Fair odds
-108
Reference quote
+135 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.92

Imanol Rodriguez

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
48%
Fair odds
+108
Reference quote
-155 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.08
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Coria is unbeaten in the UFC and has won both ways there, stopping Alessandro Costa before grinding out back-to-back decisions, while Rodriguez is 7-0 and has never needed the judges. It is a chain grappler with a real size advantage against a power puncher who would rather end it before the grappling begins. The habit that decides it is Coria's patience: he has grown comfortable letting fights run long, and every minute Rodriguez spends defending entries is a minute his hands sit idle. The swing factor is how Rodriguez handles repeated takedowns once the early exchanges pass.

Alden Coria
Attribute
Imanol Rodriguez
28
Age
26
5' 8"+4" Coria
Height
5' 4"
67"+2.5" Coria
Reach
64.5"
13-3-0
Pro Record
7-0-0
3-0
UFC Record
1-0
Grappler — 2.21 TD/15, 1.47 Sub/15
Fighting Style
Striker — 5.71 SLpM, 6 KO/TKO wins

Coria is the bigger man: 5'8" with a 67-inch reach against Rodriguez's 5'4" and 64.5 inches. That length helps him set up entries from range rather than trading inside, where Rodriguez's 5.71 SLpM at 56% accuracy is most dangerous. Rodriguez is two years younger at 26.

Venue Factor
A full-size 30-foot Octagon gives Rodriguez room to reset after defending an entry, and gives Coria more open space to cover before he can pin him against the fence and chain a second takedown attempt.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Alden Coria in the Octagon

Alden Coria

Pro Record
13-3-0
UFC Record
3-0
Streak
Three straight UFC wins — Costa, Gurule, Nicoll
Finish Rate
9 of 13 wins by finish (5 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
Avg Fight Time
Two of three UFC fights went 15:00
Chin · Lightly testedSOS · UFC flyweightDecision-capable finisher

Coria is 13-3 and unbeaten in three UFC fights: a KO/TKO of Alessandro Costa at Noche UFC in September 2025, then decisions over Luis Gurule in February 2026 and Stewart Nicoll in July 2026.

Imanol Rodriguez preparing to strike

Imanol Rodriguez

Pro Record
7-0-0
UFC Record
1-0
Streak
Seven straight wins — latest a KO/TKO of Kevin Borjas (Feb 2026)
Finish Rate
7 of 7 wins by finish (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
Avg Fight Time
One UFC fight, ended by KO/TKO
Chin · UnprovenSOS · One-fight UFCFinisher

Rodriguez is 7-0 with every win a finish. His UFC debut ended in a KO/TKO of Kevin Borjas in February 2026.

Alden Coria
0.00 dealt · — absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns per 15 minutes.
Imanol Rodriguez
0.00 dealt · — absorbed

Alden Coriasignature weapons

KO/TKOLatest: Alessandro Costa, Noche UFC, Sep 2025
×5
Submission1.47 submission attempts per 15 minutes in the UFC
×4

Imanol Rodriguezsignature weapons

KO/TKOLatest: Kevin Borjas, Feb 2026 — 5.19 knockdowns per 15 minutes in his UFC debut
×6
SubmissionHis only win not by KO/TKO
×1

Alden Coria

W
Stewart Nicoll
Decision

Opponent context: ufc

R3
UFC Fight Night — Jul 2026
W
Luis Gurule
Decision

Opponent context: ufc

R3
UFC Fight Night — Feb 2026
W
Alessandro Costa
KO/TKO

Opponent context: ufc

—
Noche UFC — Sep 2025
Pattern

Coria’s three UFC results are a KO/TKO followed by two decisions — he has won both ways on this stage.

Imanol Rodriguez

W
Kevin Borjas
KO/TKO

Opponent context: ufc

—
UFC Fight Night — Feb 2026
Pattern

Rodriguez’s only UFC result is a KO/TKO of Kevin Borjas, in line with a pro record where every win is a finish.

Alden Coria

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Imanol Rodriguez

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Coria's thirteen wins split five KO/TKO, four submissions and four decisions — a genuine three-way threat, and two of his three UFC wins went the distance. Rodriguez has finished all seven of his wins, six by KO/TKO and one by submission; he has never needed the judges.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorAldenImanol
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)UFC flyweight — Two of the three UFC wins went to a decisionOne-fight UFC — One knockout is not a divisional profile
UFC sample3-01-0
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 0 veteran tier0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window tier points tied in the last-five sample — compare SOS notes and methods, not volume alone.
Last three opponentsStewart Nicoll, Luis Gurule, Alessandro CostaKevin Borjas
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Aldenfew UFC fights
0
Imanolfew UFC fights

Near level. Rodriguez owns output and accuracy (5.71 SLpM at 56% vs 4.05 at 42%); Coria owns defence (70% vs 58%) and absorbs less (2.21 vs 2.42 per minute).

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Aldenfew UFC fights
0
Imanolfew UFC fights

The clearest separation in the matchup: Coria's 2.21 TD/15 and 1.47 Sub/15 against Rodriguez's 1.30 TD/15 and 0 Sub/15.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Aldenfew UFC fights
0
Imanolfew UFC fights

Coria's grappling edge outweighs a near-level striking read — which phase the fight lives in decides how much that matters.

MetricAldenImanol
SLpM4.055.71few UFC fights
SApM2.212.42few UFC fights
KD Avg05.19few UFC fights
TD/152.211.30few UFC fights
Sub/151.470few UFC fights

Archetype Base Rate

Chain Grappler 52%48% Power Striker

MMA Analytics model · The model leans Coria at a narrow 52%, against a BetOnline board that makes Rodriguez the -155 favourite. His 2.21 takedowns and 1.47 submission attempts per fifteen give him a repeatable route; Rodriguez's 5.19 knockdowns per fifteen come from one UFC fight and are not treated as a sustainable fifteen-minute pace.

Alden CoriaImanol Rodriguez

Flyweight

No comparable division benchmark is published for this sample. These values describe each fighter; no division rank is assigned.

StatAldenImanol
SLpM4.055.71
Str Acc42%56%
Str Def70%58%
SApM2.212.42
TD/152.211.30
TD Def56%—
Sub/151.470
KD/1505.19
Statistical Verdict
Rodriguez leads the striking-output rows — 5.71 SLpM at 56% accuracy — and the knockdown rate. Coria leads striking defence (70% to 58%), strikes absorbed (2.21 to 2.42 per minute), takedowns (2.21 to 1.30 per fifteen) and submission attempts (1.47 to 0). Rodriguez's 5.19 knockdowns per fifteen come from a single UFC fight.

Alden Coria

  • Two of Coria's three UFC wins, over Luis Gurule and Stewart Nicoll, went the full fifteen minutes — he has already won three-round decisions on this stage.
  • His one UFC stoppage came against Alessandro Costa at Noche UFC in September 2025.
  • Across those three fights he averages 2.21 takedowns and 1.47 submission attempts per fifteen minutes.

Imanol Rodriguez

  • Rodriguez's only UFC appearance ended in a KO/TKO of Kevin Borjas in February 2026.
  • All seven of his pro wins are finishes — six by KO/TKO, one by submission — so he has never gone to the scorecards in a win.
  • His 5.19 knockdowns per fifteen come from that single fight; the model does not carry that pace across three full rounds.
Critical Insight
Coria has already won twice over the full fifteen minutes in the UFC; Rodriguez has won all seven of his fights inside the distance. The longer the fight runs, the more it moves onto Coria's proven ground — Rodriguez's route is the early exchanges, before Coria's entries start to accumulate.
04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceImanol owns it

5.71 SLpM at 56% accuracy vs 4.05 at 42% — Coria's 70% StrDef and reach edge keep it close

Pocket / ExchangesImanol owns it

5.19 KD/15 in his UFC debut and six KO/TKO wins vs Coria's 0 KD/15

ClinchAlden owns it

Coria's entries start here; Rodriguez must separate before Coria settles

GroundAlden owns it

1.47 Sub/15 and four career submission wins vs Rodriguez's 0 Sub/15

Path to Victory

Alden Coria

Connect takedown entries into secure positions, keep the 1.47 Sub/15 threat live, and make Rodriguez defend consecutive actions until the grappling chains accumulate over three rounds.

Why they win
01
Grappling volume

2.21 takedowns and 1.47 submission attempts per fifteen — the clearest statistical edge in the matchup.

02
Striking defence

70% striking defence against Rodriguez's 58%, and he absorbs fewer significant strikes per minute (2.21 to 2.42).

03
Frame

Four inches taller (5'8" to 5'4") with a 2.5-inch reach advantage (67" to 64.5").

04
Fifteen-minute experience

Two of his three UFC wins, over Luis Gurule and Stewart Nicoll, went the full three rounds.

05
Finishing range

Five KO/TKO and four submission wins in a 13-3 career — he can end it standing or on the mat.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Set up contact safely

    Close distance behind feints and defence rather than trading in the pocket with a 5.71 SLpM striker.

  2. 2
    Chain the entries

    2.21 TD/15 only matters if the second and third attempts follow the first — make Rodriguez defend consecutive actions.

  3. 3
    Secure position first

    Settle into position before hunting the submission, so a scramble does not hand the fight back to the feet.

  4. 4
    Use the frame

    The four-inch height and 2.5-inch reach edges help keep Rodriguez at range while setting up entries.

  5. 5
    Bank the rounds

    Two UFC decision wins show he can win over fifteen minutes; there is no need to force a finish.

Path to Victory

Imanol Rodriguez

Counter Coria's approach without overextending, separate before he can settle, and land the early power behind six KO/TKO wins before the grappling builds.

Why they win
01
Striking output

5.71 significant strikes per minute at 56% accuracy — more volume and more accuracy than Coria's 4.05 at 42%.

02
Knockout power

5.19 knockdowns per fifteen in his UFC debut and six KO/TKO wins in seven pro fights.

03
Unbeaten finisher

7-0 as a professional, and every win has come inside the distance.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Counter the approach

    Punish Coria's entries with counters without overextending into his takedowns.

  2. 2
    Separate early

    Break away before Coria can settle on top or chain a second attempt.

  3. 3
    Rebuild from balance

    Reset to open space after every scramble and restart the striking exchange.

  4. 4
    Front-load the power

    Land clean in the early exchanges, before Coria's grappling has time to accumulate.

  5. 5
    Keep the volume up

    5.71 SLpM at 56% accuracy wins standing rounds if the fight stays there.

Danger Zone

How Alden Coria loses

  • The first entries get stuffed and Rodriguez lands early power before the grappling chains accumulate — the model's primary reversal.

  • Coria treats a defended takedown as the end of the sequence and gets caught resetting in open space against the sharper striker.

  • The fight stays standing, where Rodriguez's 5.71 SLpM at 56% accuracy out-works Coria's 4.05 at 42%.

Danger Zone

How Imanol Rodriguez loses

  • Coria's entries connect early and Rodriguez spends the rounds defending positions instead of striking.

  • The early power does not land clean and the fight becomes a fifteen-minute test he has not had to pass in seven pro wins.

  • Coria's 70% striking defence blunts the volume and the judges reward his takedowns.

Matchup interpretation

The phase that changes the comparison

Coria's grappling activity gives him a route to break up Rodriguez's striking bursts. Rodriguez's knockdown rate is extreme because it comes from one UFC fight; the model does not treat it as a sustainable fifteen-minute pace. The first safe entry and the next defensive exchange are the key tests.

Counterargument

What would change the selection

Rodriguez stuffs the first entries and scores early power before Coria's grappling chains accumulate. How he handles repeated takedowns over three rounds is the swing variable — and the main reason conviction sits at 4/10.

3 rounds

Distance and repeatability

Both UFC samples are small — three fights for Coria, one for Rodriguez. The fight turns on sustained responses over fifteen minutes, not on each man's most productive early minutes.

52
model win % for Coria
Career ledger

Finishers on both sides

Coria has nine finishes in thirteen wins, five by KO/TKO and four by submission. Rodriguez has finished all seven of his.

7/7
Rodriguez wins by finish
Method split

Knockout concentration

Thirty-eight of Rodriguez's forty-eight model points are KO/TKO — his path is concentrated in power, while Coria's fifty-two spread across decisions (22), submissions (20) and knockouts (10).

38
Rodriguez KO/TKO share (%)

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 4 things
1

Alden Coria's 2.21 takedowns and 1.47 submission attempts per fifteen, backed by 70% striking defence, are the repeatable three-round route — provided every entry leads straight into the next one.

2

Imanol Rodriguez's 5.71 SLpM at 56% accuracy and six KO/TKO wins make early power the primary reversal: stuff the first entries and land before Coria's grappling accumulates.

3

Model: Coria 52% / Rodriguez 48%, conviction 4/10, fair price −108 / +108. BetOnline has Rodriguez the -155 favourite and Coria at +135 — a 59–41 no-vig split the other way, so the model's lean comes at plus money.

4

The biggest story on the board is how this fight ends: BetOnline prices the fight going the distance at -125 (55.6% implied), while the model sends it the distance only 28 times in 100. Its 72 finish points are led by Rodriguez's 38 on KO/TKO and Coria's 20 by submission — which is why the finish-method props, more than the moneyline, carry the model's view.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Coria Decision — 22%Coria Submission — 20%Coria KO/TKO — 10%Rodriguez KO/TKO — 38%Rodriguez Decision — 6%Rodriguez Submission — 4%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Alden Coria gold · Imanol Rodriguez orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Rodriguez's takedown defence

The swing variable. If he stuffs Coria's first entries, the fight stays in his 5.71 SLpM range; if the chains land, Coria's route opens.

Grappling chains vs early power

Coria's 2.21 TD/15 and 1.47 Sub/15 against Rodriguez's 5.19 KD/15 from one UFC fight defines the fork.

Striking defence

Coria's 70% StrDef against Rodriguez's 56% accuracy decides how much of the burst Coria absorbs on the way in.

Sample size

Three UFC fights for Coria and one for Rodriguez — a single result moves either man's averages sharply, which caps conviction at 4/10.

Fifteen-minute record

Coria has two UFC decision wins; Rodriguez has finished all seven of his pro wins inside the distance.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

Rodriguez's early power

Rodriguez stuffs the first entries and lands clean before Coria's grappling chains build — his largest path by far.

Scripted outcomes for Alden Coria vs Imanol Rodriguez — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Alden Coria win probability
0%
10%
22%
20%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Ten points — five career KO/TKO wins, most recently against Alessandro Costa, but 0 knockdowns per fifteen in the UFC keep this his smallest path.

  • Twenty-two points — his largest share. Two of his three UFC wins, over Luis Gurule and Stewart Nicoll, went the full fifteen minutes.

  • Twenty points — 1.47 submission attempts per fifteen and four career submission wins make the grappling finish a primary route.

Imanol Rodriguez win probability
0%
38%
6%
4%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Thirty-eight points — six KO/TKO wins in seven pro fights and 5.19 knockdowns per fifteen in his UFC debut. The primary reversal: early power before Coria's chains accumulate.

  • Six points — all seven pro wins came inside the distance, and Coria's 70% striking defence makes three rounds of out-landing a harder route.

  • Four points — one career submission win and 0 submission attempts per fifteen in the UFC; a scramble finish is a tail outcome.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Imanol
R2
Alden
R3
Alden
29-28 Coria
Rodriguez's striking takes R1; Coria's grappling wins R2 and R3
Modal card inside Coria's 22% decision share
30-27 Coria
Entries land from the opening round and Rodriguez never settles into his striking
Live if the first takedowns connect
29-28 Rodriguez
Rodriguez stuffs enough entries to win two rounds on volume
Main path inside Rodriguez's 6% decision share

Model and price

Alden Coria

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
52%
Fair odds
-108
Reference quote
+135 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.92
Estimated EV
+22.2%
Edge vs no-vig market
+10.8 pp

Imanol Rodriguez

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
48%
Fair odds
+108
Reference quote
-155 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.08
Estimated EV
-21.0%
Edge vs no-vig market
-10.8 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Alden Coria

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.93 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Imanol Rodriguez

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.09 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

7 value leans4 large gaps1 fair6 avoid
Alden Coria wins inside the distance+450+11.8ppAlden Coria by submission+1000+10.9ppFight ends by KO/TKO+155+8.8ppAlden Coria inside the distance (no action on a decision)+200+8.7pp+3 more in table
Full prop table (18)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
PropReference quoteImplied %Model %Fair oddsDifference (pp)Estimated EVOur read
Alden Coria wins inside the distance+450BetOnline18.2%30%+2333.33 decimal+11.8+65.0%Value lean
Alden Coria by submission+1000BetOnline9.1%20%+4005.00 decimal+10.9+120.0%Value lean
Fight ends by KO/TKO+155BetOnline39.2%48%+1082.08 decimal+8.8+22.4%Value lean
Alden Coria inside the distance (no action on a decision)+200BetOnline33.3%42%+1382.38 decimal+8.7+26.0%Value lean
Alden Coria by submission or decision+200BetOnline33.3%42%+1382.38 decimal+8.7+26.0%Value lean
Fight ends by submission+475BetOnline17.4%24%+3174.17 decimal+6.6+38.0%Value lean
Imanol Rodriguez by KO/TKO+215BetOnline31.7%38%+1632.63 decimal+6.3+19.7%Value lean
Fight does not go the distance-105BetOnline51.2%72%-2571.39 decimal+20.8+40.6%Large gap — review
Imanol Rodriguez by decision+235BetOnline29.9%6%+156716.67 decimal-23.9-79.9%Large gap — review
Fight goes the distance-125BetOnline55.6%28%+2573.57 decimal-27.6-49.6%Large gap — review
Imanol Rodriguez by submission or decision+160BetOnline38.5%10%+90010.00 decimal-28.5-74.0%Large gap — review
Imanol Rodriguez wins inside the distance+160BetOnline38.5%42%+1382.38 decimal+3.5+9.2%Fair price
Alden Coria by KO/TKO+650BetOnline13.3%10%+90010.00 decimal-3.3-25.0%Avoid / overpriced
Alden Coria by KO/TKO or decision+175BetOnline36.4%32%+2123.13 decimal-4.4-12.0%Avoid / overpriced
Imanol Rodriguez by submission+900BetOnline10.0%4%+240025.00 decimal-6.0-60.0%Avoid / overpriced
Alden Coria by decision+235BetOnline29.9%22%+3554.55 decimal-7.9-26.3%Avoid / overpriced
Imanol Rodriguez by KO/TKO or decision-130BetOnline56.5%44%+1272.27 decimal-12.5-22.2%Avoid / overpriced
Imanol Rodriguez inside the distance (no action on a decision)-260BetOnline72.2%58%-1381.72 decimal-14.2-19.7%Avoid / overpriced

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Analyst price notes

Written against the prices of September 30.

The best angles on the board follow the finishing routes rather than the winner. Coria by submission at +1000 (model 20%, fair +400) and Fight ends by submission at +475 (model 24%, fair +317) rest on his 2.21 takedowns and 1.47 submission attempts per fifteen and four career submission wins, while Rodriguez by KO/TKO at +215 (model 38%, fair +163) prices his power route — six knockouts in seven wins — below the model's share. Coria by submission or decision at +200 (model 42%, fair +138) covers both of Coria's main paths, and the moneyline leans his way too, +135 against a 52% model share (fair -108); avoid Coria by decision at +235 (29.9% implied against 22%) and Rodriguez by KO/TKO or decision at -130 (56.5% implied, model 44%). The distance is the core disagreement: BetOnline prices Fight goes the distance at -125 (55.6% implied) against the model's 28%, and Rodriguez by decision (+235 against 6%) carries the same Large gap — review flag. Be careful before leaning on the finish: two of Coria's three UFC fights went fifteen minutes, Rodriguez's 5.19 knockdowns per fifteen come from a single fight the model itself does not treat as a full-fight pace, and if the fight stays standing his 5.71 landed per minute at 56% out-works Coria's 4.05 at 42%.

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Lean Coria on 2.21 TD/15, 1.47 Sub/15 and 70% striking defence over three flyweight rounds, against Rodriguez's one-fight UFC sample and a 5.19 KD/15 the model does not treat as sustainable. How Rodriguez handles repeated takedowns, and Coria's own three-fight sample, cap conviction at 4/10. Lean: Alden Coria.

What backs the lean

  • 2.21 takedowns and 1.47 submission attempts per fifteen across three UFC fights.

  • 70% striking defence against Rodriguez's 58%, with fewer strikes absorbed per minute (2.21 to 2.42).

  • Two UFC decision wins — proven over fifteen minutes.

  • Four-inch height and 2.5-inch reach advantages.

What limits it

  • Rodriguez's 5.71 SLpM at 56% accuracy out-lands Coria's 4.05 at 42% on the feet.

  • Six KO/TKO wins in seven fights and 5.19 KD/15 — the primary reversal is early power before the grappling chains build.

  • How Rodriguez defends repeated takedowns is the swing variable in the matchup.

  • Small UFC samples on both sides — three fights for Coria, one for Rodriguez.

Final Assessment

Coria is 13-3 and 3-0 in the UFC, with a KO/TKO of Alessandro Costa and decision wins over Luis Gurule and Stewart Nicoll. Rodriguez is 7-0 with one UFC fight, a KO/TKO of Kevin Borjas in February 2026. Coria's grappling — 2.21 takedowns and 1.47 submission attempts per fifteen — is the route against Rodriguez's sharper striking.

The model leans Coria 52% to Rodriguez 48% with conviction 4 out of 10. Method split: Coria 10 KO/TKO, 22 decision, 20 submission; Rodriguez 38 KO/TKO, 6 decision, 4 submission. Fair moneyline: Coria −108 · Rodriguez +108, against BetOnline's Coria +135 · Rodriguez -155. The primary reversal is Rodriguez stuffing the first entries and landing early power before Coria's grappling chains accumulate.

The honest read: a narrow Coria lean built on repeatable grappling, against power concentrated in the early exchanges. Both UFC samples are small, and how Rodriguez handles repeated takedowns over three rounds decides whether the lean holds. On the board, the central disagreement is the distance — BetOnline has the fight going fifteen minutes at -125 against the model's 28% — so the finish props say more about the model's view than the moneyline does.

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