Khaos Williams vs Roberto Soldić: analysis & prediction

MAIN CARD · WELTERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 332: Silva vs. Wang
Khaos Williams — Welterweight fighter

Khaos Williams

16W5L
Pocket Striker
VS
Roberto Soldić — Welterweight fighter

Roberto Soldić

21W4L
Power Striker

Williams's UFC experience versus Soldić's debut power

WelterweightDelta Center, Salt Lake City, UtahOctober 3, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon · welterweight

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Williams is a pocket puncher who leans on eleven fights of Octagon experience, but he loads up and leaves openings on the way out. Soldić, debuting with a deep résumé built outside the UFC, has the power to punish those gaps if he sets his range early and stays out of a brawl. Williams's path is keeping the first exchanges tight and making the debutant defend combinations.

Paths that change the fight

  • Khaos WilliamsKeep the opening exchanges controlled, make Soldić defend combinations, and avoid clean counters after loading up. His pace is 4.97 strikes landed and 5.34 absorbed per minute.
  • Roberto SoldićEstablish range early and punish Williams's defensive gaps — without getting drawn into a 4.97-per-minute exchange.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • Williams's striking defence is 41% and absorption is 5.34.
  • Soldić brings a 21-4 record and the model's largest knockout share.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Khaos Williams

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
52%
Fair odds
-108
Reference quote
+226 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.92

Roberto Soldić

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
48%
Fair odds
+108
Reference quote
-275 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.08
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, simulation buckets, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Williams snapped a losing skid with a quick knockout in May and now meets a debutant with a long professional record behind him. With no takedown threat from Williams, Soldić can plant his feet, and this becomes a straight question of who lands the heavier shot first. Williams does his damage early, landing most of his UFC knockouts in the opening round, and has never been dropped in the Octagon despite a habit of getting hit. The swing factor is Soldić's first night in the cage: whether he settles quickly enough to test that chin before Williams's experience tells.

Khaos Williams
Attribute
Roberto Soldić
32
Age
One-year gap31
6' 0"
Height
—
77"
Reach
—
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
16-5-0
Pro Record
21-4-0
11 bouts
UFC Record
Debut
Pocket striking, knockdown power
Fighting Style
Power striking

Williams stands 6'0" with a 77-inch reach, and the two are a year apart in age. Soldić makes his UFC debut with a 21-4 record built outside the promotion.

Venue Factor
Williams has eleven UFC bouts at welterweight; Soldić makes his debut. Williams's last five: a knockout of Veretennikov, a decision loss to Gustafsson, a submission loss to Bonfim, a knockout of Harris and a decision over Bedoya.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Khaos Williams in the Octagon

Khaos Williams

Pro Record
16-5-0
UFC Record
11 completed UFC bouts
Streak
Win — KO/TKO of Nikolay Veretennikov (May 2026)
Finish Rate
9 KO/TKO and 1 submission in 16 pro wins
Avg Fight Time
9:16 (UFC)
Chin · No knockdowns absorbed in 24 UFC roundsSOS · UFC welterweightPower striker

Williams is 16-5 with 11 UFC fights. Recent results: knockout of Veretennikov, decision loss to Gustafsson, submission loss to Gabriel Bonfim.

Roberto Soldić preparing to strike

Roberto Soldić

Pro Record
21-4-0
UFC Record
UFC debut
Streak
UFC debut
Finish Rate
—
Avg Fight Time
—
Chin · Untested in the UFCSOS · DebutPower striker

Soldić makes his UFC debut at 31 with a 21-4 professional record. The model rates his finishing threat highly — 32 knockout points, the largest single bucket in the fight.

Khaos Williams
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Roberto Soldić
— dealt · — absorbed

Khaos Williamssignature weapons

KO/TKOLatest: Nikolay Veretennikov, May 2026 — 0.88 knockdowns per fifteen in the UFC
×9
SubmissionHis one career submission win; 0 submission attempts per fifteen in the UFC
×1

Roberto Soldićsignature weapons

Khaos Williams

W
Nikolay Veretennikov
KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

R1
UFC Fight Night — May 2026
L
Andreas Gustafsson
Decision

Opponent context: veteran

R3
UFC 316 — Jun 2025
L
Gabriel Bonfim
Submission

Opponent context: veteran

R2
UFC Fight Night — Feb 2025
W
Carlston Harris
KO/TKO

Opponent context: veteran

R1
UFC Fight Night — May 2024
W
Rolando Bedoya
Decision

Opponent context: veteran

R3
UFC 288 — May 2023
Pattern

Williams’s last five UFC results mix two knockouts, one decision win, a decision loss, and a submission loss.

Roberto Soldić

Pattern

Soldić makes his UFC debut; his 21-4 record was built outside the promotion.

Khaos Williams

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Roberto Soldić

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Williams has finished 10 of his 16 wins — 9 by KO/TKO and 1 by submission — and six went to the judges. Four of his five UFC knockouts came in the first round, including his last two wins by knockout, over Harris and Veretennikov. Soldić makes his UFC debut, so only Williams's split is charted here; the model still gives Soldić 32 knockout points, the biggest single bucket in the fight.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorKhaosRoberto
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)UFC welterweight — Back-to-back 2025 losses to Gabriel Bonfim and Andreas Gustafsson, then a May 2026 knockout of VeretennikovDebut — 21-4 record built outside the UFC; this is his Octagon debut.
UFC sample11 completed UFC boutsUFC debut
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 4 veteran tier0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (9 vs 0 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponentsNikolay Veretennikov, Andreas Gustafsson, Gabriel Bonfim—
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

MetricKhaosRoberto
Striking composite44—
Grappling composite38—
Strikes landed / min4.97—
Strikes absorbed / min5.34—
TD Defence52%—
Knockdowns / 150.88—
Champ Rounds3-round bout3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Pocket Striker 52%48% Power Striker

Matchup-specific model lean · 52/48 model lean. Williams has eleven UFC bouts, 4.97 strikes landed per minute and 0.88 knockdowns per fifteen, but 41% striking defence and 5.34 absorbed per minute. Soldić makes his UFC debut with a 21-4 record.

Khaos WilliamsRoberto Soldić

Welterweight

No comparable division benchmark is published for this sample. These values describe each fighter; no division rank is assigned.

StatKhaosRoberto
SLpM4.97—
Str Acc39%—
Str Def41%—
SApM5.34—
TD/150—
TD Def52%—
Sub/150—
KD/150.88—
Statistical Verdict
Williams's welterweight rates show real volume and knockdown power alongside defensive exposure: 41% striking defence and 5.34 absorbed per minute. Soldić makes his UFC debut, so this table is Williams's side of the matchup.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Khaos Williams

  • Eleven completed UFC bouts. Recent results include Veretennikov, Gustafsson, Bonfim, Harris, and Bedoya.
  • Two of his last five went fifteen minutes — a decision win over Bedoya and a decision loss to Gustafsson.
  • No offensive wrestling: 0 takedowns and 0 submission attempts per fifteen.
  • Three-round bout — the fight ends at fifteen minutes.

Roberto Soldić

  • UFC debut after a 21-4 career outside the promotion.
  • Williams carries 0.88 knockdowns per fifteen into the fight; Soldić carries the model's largest knockout share, 32 points.
  • Williams's 41% striking defence is the opening Soldić's power targets.
  • Scheduled for three rounds — fifteen minutes to make the debut count.
Critical Insight
Williams builds as the fight goes: 17.7 significant strikes landed in an average UFC first round, 23.9 in the second and 24.2 in the third, 82–95% of it at distance. His knockdowns come early and late — 0.36 per first round, none in seven second rounds, 0.33 per third. Soldić arrives without UFC rounds on his record, and his finishing threat is real: the model gives him 32 knockout points.

Strike targeting

Khaos

Head
48%
Body
20%
Legs
32%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

KhaosRoberto
89%Distance—
8%Clinch—
3%Ground—

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceKhaos owns it

4.97 landed per minute, 82–95% of it at distance by round; decision shares 18 Williams, 12 Soldić.

Pocket / ExchangesRoberto owns it

Knockout shares 32 Soldić, 28 Williams. Williams absorbs 5.34 per minute and defends 41%, but carries 0.88 knockdowns per fifteen.

ClinchEven

Williams lands two clinch strikes per round in R1 and R2. Soldić has no UFC clinch minutes.

GroundEven

Submission shares 6 Williams, 4 Soldić. Williams has 0 takedowns, 52% takedown defence, and was submitted by Bonfim.

Path to Victory

Khaos Williams

Keep the opening exchanges controlled, make Soldić defend combinations, and avoid clean counters after loading up. His pace is 4.97 strikes landed and 5.34 absorbed per minute.

Why they win
01
Striking workload

4.97 significant strikes per minute at 39% accuracy, with 0.88 knockdowns per fifteen.

02
UFC experience

Eleven UFC bouts against a debutant — he knows the Octagon's pace and pressure.

03
Reach

A 77-inch reach — room to land first from range.

04
Recent finish

First-round knockout of Nikolay Veretennikov in May 2026.

05
Knockout record

9 of his 16 pro wins came by knockout.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Use the reach

    Work behind the 77-inch reach; do not load up so far that the counter becomes the finish.

  2. 2
    Guard the exits

    5.34 absorbed per minute says he eats counters — leave exchanges on an angle.

  3. 3
    Body and leg work

    Slow Soldić's entries and keep the fight in open space.

  4. 4
    Respect the power counter

    Soldić carries the model's largest knockout share — respect the first exchange.

  5. 5
    Knockouts are the mode

    28 of Williams’s 52 points are KO/TKO. Decisions are 18. Recent wins include Veretennikov and Harris.

Path to Victory

Roberto Soldić

Establish range early and punish Williams's defensive gaps — without getting drawn into a 4.97-per-minute exchange.

Why they win
01
No wrestling to manage

Williams averages 0 takedowns, so Soldić can plant his feet and strike.

02
Knockout share

32 points in the model — the largest single bucket in the fight.

03
Target-rich opponent

Williams's 41% striking defence and 5.34 absorbed per minute give a power striker plenty to hit.

04
Pro record

21-4 as a professional — a deep résumé outside the UFC.

05
Submission path

Williams was submitted by Gabriel Bonfim — the reason Soldić carries a small 4-point submission tail.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Counter into clinch

    Make Williams pay for volume with short hooks and inside ties.

  2. 2
    Take the takedown option

    Williams's 52% takedown defence and the Bonfim submission give Soldić a second route.

  3. 3
    Punish the defence

    Target Williams's 41% striking defence early, before his pace builds.

  4. 4
    Stay out of the brawl

    Do not get drawn into a 4.97-per-minute exchange — the power is the reason he is live.

  5. 5
    Target the body

    Tax Williams's pace and compress range late in each round.

Danger Zone

How Khaos Williams loses

  • Soldić establishes range early and punishes Williams's defensive gaps — the model's primary reversal.

  • Three rounds of partial defence without re-striking — judges see Soldić's power moments as round winners.

  • Gustafsson repeat — out-worked on the cards when volume comes without the knockdown.

Danger Zone

How Roberto Soldić loses

  • Williams's volume and knockdown power land first — the Veretennikov and Harris template.

  • Drawn into a 4.97-per-minute exchange on Williams's terms.

  • Out-landed without a finish — loses every round on significant strikes.

Matchup interpretation

The phase that changes the comparison

Williams brings a loud UFC striking profile — real output and knockdown power, but also 41% striking defence and 5.34 absorbed per minute. Soldić arrives with a 21-4 record and does not need a wrestling phase to be dangerous.

Counterargument

What would change the selection

Soldić's power gives him ways to end the fight in one exchange. Williams must avoid treating volume as safety.

3 rounds

Distance and repeatability

Eleven UFC fights describe Williams clearly; how Soldić's game translates to the Octagon decides the fight.

52
model win % for Williams
Main-card context

Age vs. pace

One year separates them. Three rounds favour Williams's volume if Soldić's early power misses; Soldić wants to land before Williams's pace builds.

Method split

Knockout tail

Thirty-two of Soldić's forty-eight model points are knockouts — the fight can flip on one clean shot even if Williams is out-landing him.

32
Soldić KO share (%)

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 4 things
1

Williams’s line is 4.97 strikes landed, 5.34 absorbed, 41% defence, and 0.88 knockdowns per fifteen across eleven UFC bouts.

2

Soldić’s reversal is establishing range and punishing 41% striking defence and 5.34 strikes absorbed.

3

Model: Williams 52% / Soldić 48%, conviction 4/10, fair price −108 / +108. BetOnline has it the other way round — Soldić -275, Williams +226 — a 71–29 no-vig split toward the debutant.

4

The board expects a Soldić knockout far more than the model does: BetOnline prices Soldić by KO/TKO at -150 (60% implied) and a KO/TKO finish of any kind at -325 (76.5%), while the model has them at 32% and 60%. The model sees fifteen minutes in which Williams's volume keeps climbing; the market sees a debutant's power landing early.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Williams Decision — 18%Williams KO/TKO — 28%Williams Submission — 6%Soldić KO/TKO — 32%Soldić Decision — 12%Soldić Submission — 4%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Khaos Williams gold · Roberto Soldić orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Soldić's translation

How his 21-4 game carries into the Octagon is the central question; the model favours Williams on UFC experience.

Volume vs. power

4.97 strikes landed per minute for Williams against Soldić's 32-point knockout share.

Williams's defence

41% striking defence and 5.34 absorbed per minute cap Williams's model edge.

Soldić age and form

31 and making his UFC debut — caps conviction at 4/10.

Knockdowns

0.88 per fifteen for Williams; Soldić's model knockout share is 32.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

Soldić knockout

He establishes range and punishes the 41% defence and 5.34 absorption. Largest bucket in the fight.

Scripted outcomes for Khaos Williams vs Roberto Soldić — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Khaos Williams win probability
0%
28%
18%
6%
KO/TKODECSUB
  • Twenty-eight points. Career ledger has 9 KO/TKO wins and 0.88 knockdowns per fifteen.

  • Eighteen points. Smaller than the 28-point knockout share. A decision over Bedoya is on the recent ledger.

  • Six points. Submission attempts are 0; the career ledger has 1 submission win.

Roberto Soldić win probability
0%
32%
12%
4%
KO/TKODECSUB
  • Thirty-two points — the largest bucket in the fight, aimed at Williams's 41% striking defence.

  • Twelve points — a fifteen-minute path on cleaner, harder shots.

  • Four points — the Bonfim submission is the precedent on Williams's record.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Even
R2
Khaos
R3
Khaos
29-28 Williams
Volume takes rounds two and three after a contested first
Modal card inside Williams's 18% decision share
30-27 Williams
Volume holds all three rounds without a knockdown scare
Live if Williams wins the first-round range battle
29-28 Soldić
Harder shots steal two rounds
Primary path inside Soldić's 12% decision share

Model and price

Khaos Williams

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
52%
Fair odds
-108
Reference quote
+226 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.92
Estimated EV
+69.5%
Edge vs no-vig market
+22.5 pp

Roberto Soldić

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
48%
Fair odds
+108
Reference quote
-275 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.08
Estimated EV
-34.5%
Edge vs no-vig market
-22.5 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Khaos Williams

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.93 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Roberto Soldić

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.09 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

6 value leans5 large gaps1 fair6 avoid
Khaos Williams by KO/TKO or decision+250+17.4ppKhaos Williams wins inside the distance+400+14.0ppKhaos Williams by submission or decision+600+9.7ppKhaos Williams by decision+800+6.9pp+2 more in table
Full prop table (18)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
PropReference quoteImplied %Model %Fair oddsDifference (pp)Estimated EVOur read
Khaos Williams by KO/TKO or decision+250BetOnline28.6%46%+1172.17 decimal+17.4+61.0%Value lean
Khaos Williams wins inside the distance+400BetOnline20.0%34%+1942.94 decimal+14.0+70.0%Value lean
Khaos Williams by submission or decision+600BetOnline14.3%24%+3174.17 decimal+9.7+68.0%Value lean
Khaos Williams by decision+800BetOnline11.1%18%+4565.56 decimal+6.9+62.0%Value lean
Khaos Williams by KO/TKO+350BetOnline22.2%28%+2573.57 decimal+5.8+26.0%Value lean
Fight goes the distance+300BetOnline25.0%30%+2333.33 decimal+5.0+20.0%Value lean
Khaos Williams inside the distance (no action on a decision)+300BetOnline25.0%49%+1042.04 decimal+24.0+96.0%Large gap — review
Roberto Soldić by KO/TKO or decision-245BetOnline71.0%44%+1272.27 decimal-27.0-38.0%Large gap — review
Roberto Soldić by KO/TKO-150BetOnline60.0%32%+2123.13 decimal-28.0-46.7%Large gap — review
Roberto Soldić inside the distance (no action on a decision)-400BetOnline80.0%51%-1041.96 decimal-29.0-36.3%Large gap — review
Roberto Soldić wins inside the distance-210BetOnline67.7%36%+1782.78 decimal-31.7-46.9%Large gap — review
Khaos Williams by submission+2500BetOnline3.8%6%+156716.67 decimal+2.2+56.0%Fair price
Fight ends by submission+800BetOnline11.1%10%+90010.00 decimal-1.1-10.0%Avoid / overpriced
Roberto Soldić by decision+500BetOnline16.7%12%+7338.33 decimal-4.7-28.0%Avoid / overpriced
Roberto Soldić by submission+900BetOnline10.0%4%+240025.00 decimal-6.0-60.0%Avoid / overpriced
Roberto Soldić by submission or decision+325BetOnline23.5%16%+5256.25 decimal-7.5-32.0%Avoid / overpriced
Fight does not go the distance-400BetOnline80.0%70%-2331.43 decimal-10.0-12.5%Avoid / overpriced
Fight ends by KO/TKO-325BetOnline76.5%60%-1501.67 decimal-16.5-21.5%Avoid / overpriced

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Analyst price notes

Written against the prices of September 30.

Every value lean on this board sits with Williams, and every one of them depends on a 52/48 read the market rejects outright. Williams wins inside the distance at +400 (model 34%, fair +194) and Williams by KO/TKO at +350 (model 28%, fair +257) rest on nine knockout wins in sixteen and 0.88 knockdowns per fifteen, while Williams by decision at +800 (model 18%, fair +456) and the fight going the distance at +300 (model 30%, fair +233) lean on output that climbs from 17.7 landed in the first round to 24.2 in the third. Market and model disagree sharply on the winner: Soldić at -275 is a 71–29 no-vig favourite against the model's 48%, and Soldić by KO/TKO (-150 against 32%), Soldić wins inside the distance (-210 against 36%) and Soldić by KO/TKO or decision (-245 against 44%) all carry the Large gap — review flag. Treat that as a reason for caution, not a bet against the favourite: Soldić has no Octagon rounds on his record, and Williams's 41% striking defence and 5.34 absorbed per minute are exactly the openings a power striker looks for. Avoid Fight ends by KO/TKO at -325 (76.5% implied against a 60% model share) and Soldić by decision at +500 (16.7% implied against 12%).

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Modest Williams lean, 52/48, conviction 4/10, on eleven fights of UFC experience. Soldić's debut power keeps his side live — 32 knockout points in the model — and BetOnline makes him a -275 favourite, a sharp disagreement with the lean. Lean: Khaos Williams.

What backs the lean
  • Eleven completed UFC bouts against zero.

  • 4.97 significant strikes landed per minute and 0.88 knockdowns per fifteen.

  • Recent form: a first-round knockout of Veretennikov in May 2026.

What limits it
  • Williams's striking defence is 41% and absorption is 5.34.

  • Soldić brings a 21-4 record and the model's largest knockout share.

  • Williams lost two of his last three fights — Gustafsson on the cards and Bonfim by submission.

Final Assessment

Khaos Williams vs Roberto Soldić is a main-card welterweight striking fork over three rounds. Williams lands 4.97 significant strikes per minute at 39% accuracy with 41% defence, 5.34 absorbed, and 0.88 knockdowns per fifteen across eleven UFC bouts. Soldić makes his Octagon debut with a 21-4 record — his knockout equity is the core of his case.

The model leans Williams 52% to Soldić 48% with conviction 4 out of 10 because the repeatable route is controlled striking volume over three rounds, while the primary reversal is Soldić establishing range early and punishing Williams's defensive gaps. Method shares: Williams 28 KO / 18 decision / 6 submission; Soldić 32 KO / 12 decision / 4 submission. Fair moneyline: Williams −108 · Soldić +108, against BetOnline's Williams +226 · Soldić -275.

The honest read: take Williams narrowly on UFC experience, but respect how hard the market disagrees — Soldić is -275 and the no-vig split runs 71–29 his way — and do not mistake a debut for a lack of danger. The model-backed angles all run through Williams's own finishing and decision routes rather than the moneyline, so they stand or fall with that same 52/48 read.

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