King Green vs Esteban Ribovics – UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang Fight Analytics & Prediction

MAIN CARD · LIGHTWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

King Green

36W17L1D

Defensive Striker

Esteban Ribovics

16W3L

Volume Striker

Green's defensive reads against Ribovics's repeated combinations

LightweightDelta Center, Salt Lake City, UtahOctober 3, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon · main-card lightweight

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Ribovics throws in bunches and accepts return fire, betting that workload outlasts whatever comes back. Green wants to make the first combination miss and punish each reset with counters and rhythm changes, and he arrives on a four-fight win streak. The danger for Green is the opening stretch before his reads settle; if Ribovics closes the exits and keeps stacking shots, his pace and power take over.

Paths that change the fight

King GreenMake the opening attack miss, return clean strikes and break the rhythm before Ribovics can extend the exchange.
Esteban RibovicsUse layered combinations, close exits with footwork and stay defensively responsible when Green starts countering.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10

Ribovics 7.43 SLpM — can win optics if Green does not make volume costly.
5.74 SApM for Ribovics — pays for pressure; Barboza KO shows ceiling.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

King Green

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 55%
Fair odds: -122

Reference quote: +200 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.82

Esteban Ribovics

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 45%
Fair odds: +122

Reference quote: -240 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.22

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, simulation buckets, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Green is 39 and in a late-career surge, with three stoppages this year alone, while Ribovics rebuilt his momentum by knocking out Edson Barboza after a submission loss to Mateusz Gamrot. The question is craft against workload: whether a veteran counter-puncher can make a younger volume striker pay for every exchange. Ribovics treats getting hit as the cost of his output and tends to get busier as fights go on, while Green does his cleanest work early. The swing factor is the final round, when Ribovics's volume peaks and the age gap is felt most.

King Green

Attribute

Esteban Ribovics

Age

Nine-year gap30

5' 10"

Height

5' 10"

71"+2" Green

Reach

69"

40"

Leg Reach

39"

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

36-17-1

Pro Record

16-3-0

31 bouts

UFC Record

8 bouts

Counter-striking, defensive reads

Fighting Style

High-volume combinations

Both stand 5'10", with Green holding a two-inch reach edge. Ribovics is nine years younger and arrives off a second-round knockout of Edson Barboza.

Venue Factor
Three rounds reward the fighter who makes the other's work inefficient. Green's 2026 run — knockouts of McKinney and Zellhuber and a submission of Stephens — shows current finishing form; Ribovics's 7.43 strikes per minute come with 5.74 absorbed, the tax Green's counters are built to collect.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

King Green

Pro Record

36-17-1

UFC Record

31 completed UFC bouts

Streak

Four wins — McKinney, Stephens, Zellhuber, Gibson Jr.

Finish Rate

13 KO/TKO and 10 submissions in 36 pro wins

Avg Fight Time

10:24 across 31 UFC bouts

Chin · Five KO/TKO losses in 31 UFC boutsSOS · Long UFC lightweightVeteran finisher

Green is 36-17-1 across 31 UFC fights. The last five are a knockout of McKinney, a submission of Stephens, a knockout of Zellhuber, a decision over Gibson Jr., and a knockout loss to Ruffy.

Esteban Ribovics

Pro Record

16-3-0

UFC Record

8 completed UFC bouts

Streak

Win — KO/TKO of Edson Barboza (Aug 2026)

Finish Rate

8 KO/TKO and 5 submissions in 16 pro wins

Avg Fight Time

11:26 across 8 UFC bouts

Chin · No KO/TKO losses in 8 UFC boutsSOS · UFC lightweightFinisher

Ribovics is 16-3 across eight UFC fights. The last result is a knockout of Edson Barboza, after a submission loss to Mateusz Gamrot.

King Green

0.00 dealt · — absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns per 15 minutes.

Esteban Ribovics

0.00 dealt · — absorbed

King Greensignature weapons

KO/TKOLatest: Terrance McKinney, UFC 329, Jul 2026 (R1) — five of his 17 UFC wins ended in the first round

×13

SubmissionLatest: Jeremy Stephens, UFC 328, May 2026 (R1) — 0.31 submission attempts per 15 minutes

×10

Esteban Ribovicssignature weapons

KO/TKOLatest: Edson Barboza, UFC 330, Aug 2026 (R2) — 0.48 knockdowns per 15 minutes

×8

SubmissionAll five came before his UFC run; none in eight UFC fights

×5

King Green

Terrance McKinney

KO/TKO

Opponent context: veteran

UFC 329 — Jul 2026

Jeremy Stephens

Submission

Opponent context: veteran

UFC 328 — May 2026

Daniel Zellhuber

KO/TKO

Opponent context: veteran

UFC Fight Night — Feb 2026

Lance Gibson Jr.

Decision

Opponent context: prospect

UFC Fight Night — Dec 2025

Mauricio Ruffy

KO/TKO

Opponent context: veteran

UFC 313 — Mar 2025

Pattern

Green’s last four wins are three finishes and a decision, after a knockout loss to Ruffy.

Esteban Ribovics

Edson Barboza

KO/TKO

Opponent context: veteran

UFC 330 — Aug 2026

Mateusz Gamrot

Submission

Opponent context: elite

UFC 327 — Apr 2026

Elves Brener

Decision

Opponent context: veteran

UFC Fight Night — Aug 2025

Nasrat Haqparast

Decision

Opponent context: veteran

UFC Fight Night — Mar 2025

Daniel Zellhuber

Decision

Opponent context: veteran

UFC 306 — Sep 2024

Pattern

Ribovics’s last result is a knockout of Barboza. The fight before that was a submission loss to Gamrot.

King Green

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Esteban Ribovics

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
The donuts cover pro careers: Green's 36 wins split 13 KO/TKO, 10 submissions and 13 decisions; Ribovics's 16 split 8 KO/TKO, 5 submissions and 3 decisions. The round bars cover UFC wins only. Green's 17 UFC wins are five first-round finishes, one in the second, two in the third and nine decisions. Ribovics's five are a first-round knockout of Terrance McKinney, a second-round knockout of Edson Barboza and three decisions — all five of his submission wins came before the UFC.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	King	Esteban
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	Long UFC lightweight — The run sits after a knockout loss to Mauricio Ruffy	UFC lightweight — Also a submission loss to Gamrot and a decision loss to Haqparast
UFC sample	31 completed UFC bouts	8 completed UFC bouts
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	0 elite · 4 veteran tier	1 elite · 4 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter B (11 vs 9 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponents	Terrance McKinney, Jeremy Stephens, Daniel Zellhuber	Edson Barboza, Mateusz Gamrot, Elves Brener

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

King

Esteban

Green 58, Ribovics 52. Ribovics owns volume (7.43 SLpM vs 6.49); Green owns accuracy (53% vs 44%), defence (62% vs 54%) and absorption (3.63 per minute vs 5.74), and those three inputs outweigh the output gap.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

King

Esteban

Green 50, Ribovics 44. Green leads every grappling rate: 1.32 takedowns per 15 minutes vs 0.32, 0.31 submission attempts vs 0.16, and 72% takedown defence vs 66%.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

King

Esteban

Green 54, Ribovics 48 — a six-point Green edge in both halves. Whether his counters make Ribovics's volume costly decides whether the striking half holds.

Metric	King	Esteban
UFC Bouts	31	8
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	6.49	7.43
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	3.63	5.74
KD/15	0.35	0.48
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.32	0.32
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.31	0.16

Archetype Base Rate

Defensive Striker 55%45% Volume Striker

MMA Analytics model · 55/45 model lean: favour Green on accuracy, striking defence and absorption over three rounds; cap confidence because Ribovics's volume and 0.48 KD/15 keep the knockout lane open.

King GreenEsteban Ribovics

Lightweight

No comparable division benchmark is published for this sample. These values describe each fighter; no division rank is assigned.

Stat	King	Esteban
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	6.49	7.43
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	53%	44%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	62%	54%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	3.63	5.74
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.32	0.32
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	72%	66%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.31	0.16
KD/15	0.35	0.48

Statistical Verdict
Ribovics leads output (7.43 SLpM) and knockdowns (0.48 per 15) but absorbs 5.74 per minute. Green leads accuracy, striking defence, absorption and all three grappling rows.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

King Green

Output builds by round — 25.1 significant strikes landed in R1, 32.5 in R2, 38.7 in R3 — with accuracy steady between 52% and 55%.
Control time climbs from 27 seconds in R1 to 54 in R3, and ground strikes are 11–12% of his output in R1 and R3.
Leg kicks fade as fights go on: 24% of his landed strikes in R1, 10% by R3, while the head share rises from 50% to 66%.
Five of his 17 UFC wins ended in R1 — but four of his five UFC KO/TKO losses also came in R1.

Esteban Ribovics

A steep build: 20.1 landed in R1, 35.9 in R2 and 53.2 in R3 across the five UFC bouts that reached it.
Accuracy rises with the volume — 39% in R1, 44% in R2, 47% in R3.
A pure range fighter: 90–94% of his landed strikes come at distance, and he averages 7–11 seconds of control per round.
His two UFC stoppages came in R1 (Terrance McKinney) and R2 (Edson Barboza); the Gamrot loss was a second-round submission.

Critical Insight
Green starts faster and cleaner — 25.1 landed at 53% in R1 against Ribovics's 20.1 at 39% — and his control time grows each round. Ribovics's output more than doubles from R1 to R3. Green needs his defence to blunt that climb; Ribovics needs to reach the later rounds with the volume intact.

Strike targeting

King

58%

25%

17%

Head

58%

Body

25%

Legs

17%

Esteban

74%

16%

10%

Head

74%

Body

16%

Legs

10%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

KingEsteban

81%Distance92%

8%Clinch4%

11%Ground4%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceKing owns it

Green's 53% accuracy and 62% defence vs Ribovics's 7.43 SLpM at 44% — Ribovics lands 90–94% of his strikes at distance

Pocket / ExchangesEsteban owns it

0.48 KD/15 for Ribovics vs Green's 0.35, and four of Green's five UFC KO/TKO losses came in R1

ClinchKing owns it

8–9% of Green's landed strikes per round come in the clinch vs 3–6% for Ribovics

GroundKing owns it

Green's 1.32 TD/15, 0.31 Sub/15 and 27–54 s of control per round vs Ribovics's 0.32 TD/15 and 7–11 s

Path to Victory

King Green

Make the opening attack miss, return clean strikes and break the rhythm before Ribovics can extend the exchange.

Why they win

Cleaner striking

53% accuracy and 62% defence against Ribovics's 44% and 54% — more of Green's shots land and fewer come back.

Takedown defence

72% TDDef against Ribovics's 0.32 TD/15 — the fight stays where Green wants it.

Reach at 155

A two-inch reach edge at the same 5'10" height — room to counter from the end of Ribovics's combinations.

Momentum

Four straight wins, three by finish, including 2026 stoppages of McKinney, Stephens and Zellhuber.

Damage ratio

Lands 1.79 strikes for every one absorbed — positive exchange economics at range.

The gameplan

1
Make the first attack miss
Slip and roll the opening combination, then return clean shots before Ribovics resets.
2
Break the rhythm
Change pace and angles so Ribovics cannot extend the exchange.
3
Body and leg work
Slow Ribovics's entries and keep the fight in open space.
4
Respect the power
The second-round knockout of Edson Barboza is mandatory prep — keep the chin down on exits.
5
Win minutes, not one shot
The decision bucket is 30 points. The 2026 wins were finishes of McKinney, Stephens and Zellhuber.

Path to Victory

Esteban Ribovics

Use layered combinations, close exits with footwork and stay defensively responsible when Green starts countering.

Why they win

Volume

7.43 SLpM — the highest output in the pairing; judges see constant work.

Knockdown power

0.48 KD/15 and a second-round knockout of Edson Barboza — one clean shot changes the fight.

Youth

Nine years younger at 30 against a 39-year-old.

Finishing record

13 of 16 pro wins inside the distance — 8 knockouts and 5 submissions.

Submission threat

Five career submission wins — a scramble path if Green shoots.

The gameplan

1
Layered combinations
Throw in bunches so Green's counters meet a second and third shot.
2
Close the exits
Cut off Green's lateral exits with footwork rather than chasing.
3
Stay responsible
Keep the hands home when Green starts countering — 5.74 absorbed per minute is the tax to reduce.
4
Volume as the weapon
7.43 SLpM wins rounds on activity if Green's reads lag.
5
Target the body
Tax Green's pace and compress range late in each round.

Danger Zone

How King Green loses

Ribovics sustains volume without paying on counters — the model's primary reversal.
Three rounds of partial defence without re-striking — judges see Ribovics's power moments as round winners.
Ruffy repeat — caught early before his reads settle, as in the first-round loss to Mauricio Ruffy.

Danger Zone

How Esteban Ribovics loses

Green's counters accumulate — 5.74 absorbed per minute becomes the story of the fight.
Volume without accuracy — 44% accuracy lets Green win minutes on clean shots.
Gamrot repeat — Green's 1.32 TD/15 and 0.31 Sub/15 find the same submission path.

Matchup interpretation

The phase that changes the comparison

Ribovics's high striking volume comes with higher absorption than Green's. Green's route is to make that activity inefficient through reads, counters and changes of rhythm. Ribovics needs to sustain attacks without giving Green a predictable exit after each combination.

Counterargument

What would change the selection

Green is 39, so his career averages may flatter his current level — and Ribovics's output comes with substantial absorption that cuts both ways.

3 rounds

Distance and repeatability

This is not simply a volume contest — effective damage versus attempted pressure is the distinction.

model win % for Green

Main-card context

Age vs. pace

Nine years separate them. Three rounds reward Green's efficiency if his reads hold; Ribovics wants to push the pace until the age gap shows.

Method split

Knockout tail

Twenty-eight of Ribovics's forty-five model points are knockouts — the fight can flip on one clean shot even if Green is winning the exchanges.

Ribovics KO share (%)

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 4 things

King Green's 53% accuracy, 62% defence and 3.63 SApM define the repeatable route — provided his counters make Ribovics's volume costly.

Esteban Ribovics's 7.43 SLpM and 0.48 KD/15 keep him live all fight; the model's primary reversal is Ribovics sustaining volume without paying on counters.

Model: Green 55% / Ribovics 45%, conviction 4/10. Fair price −122 / +122 — BetOnline has the opposite favourite at Green +200 / Ribovics -240, a 68–32 Ribovics market once the margin is removed.

The book's case rests on one finish: Ribovics by KO/TKO at +105 carries 48.8% implied against the model's 28%, and a KO/TKO ending at -130 (56.5%) against 40%, yet the fight going the distance is priced almost exactly where the model has it (+160, 38.5% against 40%).

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Green Decision — 30%Green KO/TKO — 12%Green Submission — 13%Ribovics KO/TKO — 28%Ribovics Decision — 10%Ribovics Submission — 7%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. King Green gold · Esteban Ribovics orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Volume vs. efficiency

Whether Ribovics's 7.43 SLpM outworks Green's 62% defence is the central question; the model favours Green if his counters land.

Damage economy

3.63 absorbed per minute for Green against 5.74 for Ribovics defines the fork.

Green's grappling

1.32 TD/15 and 0.31 Sub/15 give Green a second route if striking stalls.

Green's age

39 against a 30-year-old — caps conviction at 4/10.

Knockdown rates

0.35 vs 0.48 KD/15 keeps early swing equity for both sides.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

Green decision

Cleaner defence and 53% accuracy bank the rounds. Largest Green bucket.

Scripted outcomes for King Green vs Esteban Ribovics — how each version of this fight unfolds.

King Green win probability

12%

30%

13%

KO/TKODECSUB

Twelve points — McKinney and Zellhuber 2026 KOs plus career finish equity.
Thirty points — largest bucket; defensive reads and Gibson-style decisions when counters land.
Thirteen points — Stephens submission (2026) and 0.31 Sub/15 keep the grappling tail live.

Esteban Ribovics win probability

28%

10%

KO/TKODECSUB

Twenty-eight points — Barboza KO, 0.48 KD/15, and volume-driven stoppages if Green's reads lag.
Ten points — Brener and Zellhuber decisions show three-round viability without a finish.
Seven points — Gamrot submission loss is the cautionary path; 0.16 Sub/15 keeps it a tail.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

King

Esteban

29-28 Green

Green's cleaner start and control bank R1 and R2 before Ribovics's late volume takes R3

Modal card inside Green's 30% decision share

30-27 Green

Green's defence blunts the late surge and he sweeps the rounds

Also inside Green's 30% decision share

29-28 Ribovics

Rising volume takes R2 and R3 after Green's first round

Main path inside Ribovics's 10% decision share

Model and price

King Green

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 55%
Fair odds: -122

Reference quote: +200 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.82

Estimated EV: +65.0%
Edge vs no-vig market: +22.9 pp

Esteban Ribovics

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 45%
Fair odds: +122

Reference quote: -240 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.22

Estimated EV: -36.3%
Edge vs no-vig market: -22.9 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · King Green

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.82 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Esteban Ribovics

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.23 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

6 value leans4 large gaps3 fair5 avoid

King Green inside the distance (no action on a decision)+300+17.0ppKing Green by submission or decision+265+15.6ppKing Green by KO/TKO or decision+235+12.1ppKing Green wins inside the distance+550+9.6pp+2 more in table

Full prop table (18)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
Prop	Reference quote	Implied %	Model %	Fair odds	Difference (pp)	Estimated EV	Our read
King Green inside the distance (no action on a decision)	+300BetOnline	25.0%	42%	+1382.38 decimal	+17.0	+68.0%	Value lean
King Green by submission or decision	+265BetOnline	27.4%	43%	+1332.33 decimal	+15.6	+56.9%	Value lean
King Green by KO/TKO or decision	+235BetOnline	29.9%	42%	+1382.38 decimal	+12.1	+40.7%	Value lean
King Green wins inside the distance	+550BetOnline	15.4%	25%	+3004.00 decimal	+9.6	+62.5%	Value lean
King Green by decision	+385BetOnline	20.6%	30%	+2333.33 decimal	+9.4	+45.5%	Value lean
King Green by submission	+1200BetOnline	7.7%	13%	+6697.69 decimal	+5.3	+69.0%	Value lean
Esteban Ribovics by KO/TKO	+105BetOnline	48.8%	28%	+2573.57 decimal	-20.8	-42.6%	Large gap — review
Esteban Ribovics inside the distance (no action on a decision)	-400BetOnline	80.0%	58%	-1381.72 decimal	-22.0	-27.5%	Large gap — review
Esteban Ribovics wins inside the distance	-140BetOnline	58.3%	35%	+1862.86 decimal	-23.3	-40.0%	Large gap — review
Esteban Ribovics by KO/TKO or decision	-185BetOnline	64.9%	38%	+1632.63 decimal	-26.9	-41.5%	Large gap — review
Fight ends by submission	+475BetOnline	17.4%	20%	+4005.00 decimal	+2.6	+15.0%	Fair price
Fight goes the distance	+160BetOnline	38.5%	40%	+1502.50 decimal	+1.5	+4.0%	Fair price
King Green by KO/TKO	+800BetOnline	11.1%	12%	+7338.33 decimal	+0.9	+8.0%	Fair price
Esteban Ribovics by submission	+700BetOnline	12.5%	7%	+132914.29 decimal	-5.5	-44.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Fight does not go the distance	-200BetOnline	66.7%	60%	-1501.67 decimal	-6.7	-10.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Esteban Ribovics by decision	+325BetOnline	23.5%	10%	+90010.00 decimal	-13.5	-57.5%	Avoid / overpriced
Fight ends by KO/TKO	-130BetOnline	56.5%	40%	+1502.50 decimal	-16.5	-29.2%	Avoid / overpriced
Esteban Ribovics by submission or decision	+195BetOnline	33.9%	17%	+4885.88 decimal	-16.9	-49.8%	Avoid / overpriced

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Analyst price notes

Written against the prices of September 30.

BetOnline and the model disagree sharply here: the book makes Ribovics -240, 68–32 once the margin is removed, while the model leans Green 55–45 with fair odds of -122, so Green +200 (33.3% implied against 55%) sits in the large-gap band — a reason to review the read, not a value call. Among the props, the value leans are Green by submission or decision at +265 (27.4% implied vs a 43% model share, fair +133), Green inside the distance (no action on a decision) at +300 (25% vs 42%, fair +138) and Green by decision at +385 (20.6% vs 30%, fair +233), built on his 62% striking defence, 3.63 strikes absorbed per minute against Ribovics's 5.74, and a 2026 run of three finishes over McKinney, Stephens and Zellhuber. Every one of those is the same 55/45 read in a different wrapper, so they stand or fall with the moneyline disagreement. Avoid the fight ends by KO/TKO at -130 (56.5% vs 40%), and treat Ribovics by KO/TKO at +105 (48.8% vs 28%) and Ribovics wins inside the distance at -140 (58.3% vs 35%) as large-gap rows where the market's case is real: Green is 39 with five KO/TKO losses in 31 UFC bouts, four of them in the first round, and his career averages may flatter his current level, while Ribovics is 30, has never been stopped by strikes in eight UFC fights and arrives off the Barboza knockout.

Conviction

4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Lean Green on 62% StrDef, 53% StrAcc, and 3.63 SApM versus Ribovics's 5.74 SApM despite Ribovics's 7.43 SLpM and Barboza KO form. Green's 2026 win streak supports current level; age 39 and Ribovics's power keep the KO lane wide open — conviction 4/10. Lean: King Green.

What backs the lean

62% StrDef and 3.63 SApM — best damage-economy line in the comparison.
53% StrAcc with 6.49 SLpM — efficient volume when reads land.
2026 wins over McKinney, Stephens, and Zellhuber — form supports the lean.
1.32 TD/15 and 0.31 Sub/15 — secondary routes if striking stalls.

What limits it

Ribovics 7.43 SLpM — can win optics if Green does not make volume costly.
5.74 SApM for Ribovics — pays for pressure; Barboza KO shows ceiling.
Green age 39 — long-term averages may lag current streak.
Primary reversal: Ribovics sustains volume without paying on counters.

Final Assessment

King Green vs Esteban Ribovics is a main-card lightweight striking fork over three rounds. Green lands 6.49 significant strikes per minute at 53% accuracy with 62% defence and 3.63 absorbed, plus 1.32 takedowns and 0.31 submission attempts per fifteen across thirty-one UFC bouts. Ribovics pushes 7.43 SLpM at 44% accuracy but absorbs 5.74 and deals 0.48 knockdowns per fifteen — volume with a clear tax.

The model leans Green 55% to Ribovics 45% with conviction 4 out of 10 because the repeatable route is cleaner exchanges and counter rhythm, while the primary reversal is Ribovics sustaining volume without paying on counters. Method shares: Green 12 KO / 30 decision / 13 submission; Ribovics 28 KO / 10 decision / 7 submission. Fair moneyline: Green −122 · Ribovics +122; BetOnline posts Green +200 and Ribovics -240.

The honest read: this is not simply a volume contest — effective damage versus attempted pressure is the distinction. Take Green narrowly on defence and accuracy, and respect Ribovics's KO equity, which BetOnline prices far more heavily than the model at -240 on the moneyline and +105 by KO/TKO. A 55/45 model against a 68–32 market is a gap to review before backing either side.

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