King Green vs Esteban Ribovics – UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang Fight Analytics & Prediction

MAIN CARD · LIGHTWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

King Green

36W17L1D

Counter Boxer

…

Esteban Ribovics

16W3L

Volume Pressure Striker

…

Forty years old and four straight wins, against the steepest volume curve in the division

LightweightDelta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah, United StatesOctober 3, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon · 4,300 ft elevation

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

The closest fight on the main card, and the one with the most direct evidence available: these two men have both beaten Terrance McKinney and Daniel Zellhuber, and on both names the 40-year-old produced the cleaner result and produced it later. King Green knocked McKinney out in the first round in July 2026 and knocked Zellhuber out in the second in February; Esteban Ribovics knocked McKinney out in 37 seconds in May 2024 and needed a split decision to edge Zellhuber in September that year. Green arrives on four straight wins — a knockout, a submission and a knockout among them — with the better defensive line by a distance: 62% striking defence and 3.63 significant strikes absorbed per minute against 54% and 5.74. Ribovics arrives off the best win of his career, a second-round knockout of Edson Barboza in August 2026, and with the steepest output curve on this card: 19.8 significant strikes landed in an average first round, 45.2 in a second, 53.2 in a third. That is a 169% escalation and it is real. The fight reduces to accuracy against volume, and to whether ten years matter at 4,300 feet. Model: Green 54% / Ribovics 46%, conviction 4/10.

King Green

Attribute

Esteban Ribovics

Age

10 years30

5'10" (70")

Height

5'10" (70")

71"+2" Green

Reach

69"

40"

Leg Reach

39"

Counter boxing — the highest-volume defensive striker at 155

Fighting Style

Forward-pressure volume striker

San Bernardino, California, United States

Origin

Tartagal, Argentina

3.63 per minute

Damage Absorbed

5.74 per minute

Four straight wins, two by finish

Recent Form

A Round-2 knockout of Edson Barboza in his last

Identical height, a single inch of leg reach, and two inches of arm to the older man. There is no frame advantage to build a gameplan around, which is why both fighters do the same thing — 83-84% of Green's offence and 92-94% of Ribovics's lands at distance, and neither spends meaningful time in the clinch or on the ground. What separates them physically is not size but mileage: fifty-four professional fights against nineteen, and 62 scored UFC rounds against 16.

Venue Factor
The Delta Center sits at roughly 4,300 feet, and this is a three-round fight between the two highest-volume strikers on the card. Between them they land 13.92 significant strikes per minute. Thin air taxes output before anything else, and it taxes the man throwing 53.2 in a third round harder than the man throwing 40.0 — but it also taxes the 40-year-old more than the 30-year-old. It is the one variable here that genuinely cuts both ways.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

King Green

Pro Record

36-17-1

UFC Record

17-11-1 (1 NC) across 26 scored Octagon bouts

Streak

Four consecutive wins

Finish Rate

64% (23 of 36 wins) — 13 KO/TKO, 10 submissions, 13 decisions

Avg Fight Time

10:36 in the UFC

Chin · Battle-testedSOS · Elite — two decades of top-fifteen lightweightsCounter boxer

Fifty-four professional fights, forty years old, and in the best form of the last decade. Green has won four straight — a split decision over Lance Gibson Jr., a second-round knockout of Daniel Zellhuber, a first-round submission of Jeremy Stephens and a first-round knockout of Terrance McKinney at UFC 329 in July 2026. The round data explains how: his output climbs every round from 23.3 to 32.2 to 40.0 significant strikes landed, and his accuracy climbs with it, 51.6% to 51.9% to 55.9%. Nobody at 155 pounds finishes a third round throwing that much that cleanly. He also owns the better defensive line by a wide margin — 62% striking defence and 3.63 significant strikes absorbed per minute — and a career method split that is genuinely three-way: 13 knockouts, 10 submissions, 13 decisions.

Esteban Ribovics

Pro Record

16-3-0

UFC Record

5-3 across six scored Octagon bouts

Streak

Coming off a second-round knockout of Edson Barboza

Finish Rate

81% (13 of 16 wins) — 8 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 3 decisions

Avg Fight Time

10:20 in the UFC

Chin · Solid — never knocked outSOS · Good and climbingVolume pressure striker

The highest-volume fighter in the division and the least efficient. Ribovics went 13-0 in Argentina before the Contender Series, and his UFC run reads as a series of firefights: split decisions over Daniel Zellhuber and against Nasrat Haqparast, a first-round knockout of Terrance McKinney, a submission loss to Mateusz Gamrot in April 2026, and then the best win of his career — a second-round knockout of Edson Barboza at UFC 330 in August 2026. The round profile is the most extreme escalation on this card: 19.8 significant strikes landed in an average first round, 45.2 in a second and 53.2 in a third, with accuracy rising from 38.0% to 46.8%. The cost is written next to it: 5.74 significant strikes absorbed per minute, the highest figure in this bout and well above the lightweight baseline.

King Green

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Esteban Ribovics

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

King Greensignature weapons

The Third-Round Surge40.0 significant strikes landed at 55.9% accuracy in an average third round across seventeen scored rounds — the highest late-round output in the division

×13

The Late ChokeTen career submissions including a first-round finish of Jeremy Stephens in May 2026; the phase Ribovics has been beaten in

×10

Esteban Ribovicssignature weapons

Escalating Volume19.8 to 45.2 to 53.2 significant strikes landed across three rounds — a 169% rise, the steepest escalation on the card

×8

The Round-2 BombA knockdown average of 0.20 in the second and a Round-2 knockout of Edson Barboza in August 2026, from 93.8% distance work

×8

King Green

Terrance McKinney

KO/TKO

RR1 (4:59)

UFC 329 — Jul 11, 2026

Jeremy Stephens

Submission

RR1 (4:20)

UFC 328 — May 9, 2026

Daniel Zellhuber

KO/TKO

RR2 (4:55)

UFC Fight Night — Feb 28, 2026

Lance Gibson Jr.

Decision — Split

RR3

UFC Fight Night — Dec 13, 2025

Mauricio Ruffy

KO/TKO

RR1 (2:07)

UFC 313 — Mar 8, 2025

Pattern

Four straight wins and the quality of the finishes is the story: a first-round knockout of Terrance McKinney, a first-round submission of Jeremy Stephens, a second-round knockout of Daniel Zellhuber. Two of those men are shared opponents with Ribovics and Green got the better result on both. The Mauricio Ruffy knockout loss in March 2025 is the one caveat and it is a real one — it is the most recent evidence that his chin can be cracked inside a round.

Esteban Ribovics

Edson Barboza

KO/TKO

RR2 (1:32)

UFC 330 — Aug 15, 2026

Mateusz Gamrot

Submission

RR2 (4:19)

UFC 327 — Apr 11, 2026

Elves Brener

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC Fight Night — Aug 2, 2025

Nasrat Haqparast

Decision — Split

RR3

UFC Fight Night — Mar 1, 2025

Daniel Zellhuber

Decision — Split

RR3

UFC 306 — Sep 14, 2024

Pattern

Three wins and two losses in five, but the two most recent bouts are the ones that matter: a submission loss to Mateusz Gamrot in April 2026 and then a second-round knockout of Edson Barboza four months later. The Barboza win is comfortably the best of his career. The Gamrot loss is the only blueprint anyone has produced against him, and it came from the phase he does not fight in.

King Green

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Esteban Ribovics

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Green's donut is the most balanced on the entire card — 13 knockouts, 10 submissions, 13 decisions across 36 wins, which is 36% / 28% / 36% and means he genuinely threatens in three ways. Ribovics's is a finisher's chart: 8 knockouts, 5 submissions, 3 decisions, an 81% finish rate. The round columns are where the age gap inverts expectations. Thirteen of Green's twenty-three finishes landed in Round 1 and he has thirteen decision wins to fall back on; Ribovics has three decisions in nineteen fights and has been to the cards in four of his last five. The man with fifty-four fights has more ways to win this and more experience winning them slowly.

Common Opponents

Opponent	King	Esteban
Terrance McKinney	W· KO/TKO R1 4:59 (UFC 329, Jul 2026)	W· KO/TKO R1 0:37 (May 2024)
Both knocked him out in the opening round — Ribovics in 37 seconds, Green in 299. The cleanest speed-versus-craft comparison available
Daniel Zellhuber	W· KO/TKO R2 4:55 (Feb 2026)	W· Split decision (UFC 306, Sep 2024)
Green finished the same man Ribovics needed fifteen minutes and a split card to edge — eighteen months later, at 39
Edson Barboza and Mateusz Gamrot (level proxies)	—has not faced either recently	W· KO R2 over Barboza; L · submission R2 to Gamrot
Ribovics's two most recent fights are the best win and the only stoppage loss of his career, four months apart

Esteban

Two points, and the model reads 54/46 — almost exactly the composite gap. This is the closest fight on the main card and the ratings agree.

Metric	King	Esteban
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	10:36 (UFC)	10:20 (UFC)
Pace Tier	6.49 SLpM at 53% accuracy	7.43 SLpM at 44% accuracy
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	40.0 / 23.3 — up 72%	53.2 / 19.8 — up 169%
Damage Absorbed	3.63 per minute	5.74 per minute
Scored Rounds	62 across 26 UFC bouts	16 across 6 UFC bouts

Archetype Base Rate

Counter Boxer 54%46% Volume Pressure Striker

No archetype base-rate row exists for this pairing · No historical archetype rate is applied. The 54/46 is built on the two shared opponents — Green produced the cleaner result against both McKinney and Zellhuber, and produced it eighteen months later — plus a nine-point accuracy edge, a 62%-to-54% striking defence gap, and 3.63 significant strikes absorbed per minute against 5.74. It is capped hard by ten years, by an opponent whose third-round output is 33% higher, and by a knockout loss to Mauricio Ruffy as recently as March 2025.

King GreenEsteban Ribovics

Lightweight

· 52 fighters

Stat	King	King rank	Div avg	Esteban rank	Esteban
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	6.49	—	~4.21	—	7.43
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	53%	—	~45%	—	44%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	62%	—	~57%	—	54%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	3.63	—	~4.02	—	5.74
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.32	—	~1.71	—	0.32
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	72%	—	~64%	—	66%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.31 (10 career subs)	—	~0.49	—	0.16 (5 career subs)
Career Record	36-17-1 in 54 fights	—	—	—	16-3-0 in 19 fights
Age	39	—	—	—	30
Scored UFC Rounds	62	—	—	—	16
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	10:36	—	—	—	10:20

Statistical Verdict
Both men are well above the divisional output baseline and they get there in opposite ways. Ribovics is the busier fighter at 7.43 significant strikes per minute and pays for it everywhere else — 44% accuracy against a ~45% benchmark, 54% striking defence against ~57%, and 5.74 absorbed per minute against ~4.02, the worst figure in this bout. Green is above baseline on accuracy, defence, damage taken and submission threat, and the only row he loses outright is raw volume. The bottom of the table is the honest summary: fifty-four professional fights against nineteen, sixty-two scored rounds against sixteen, and ten years.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

King Green

Output and accuracy both climb every round — 23.3 at 51.6%, 32.2 at 51.9%, 40.0 at 55.9%. A 40-year-old finishing his third round landing at better than half is the most counter-intuitive line in this analysis set.
The target map moves upstairs as the fight goes on: 49.4% head in the first, 66.5% in the third, with leg work falling from 25.5% to 9.9%. He softens and then hunts.
Control time rises from 20 to 46 to 56 seconds. Combined with ten career submissions and a first-round choke of Jeremy Stephens in May, the late grappling threat is real and almost never priced.

Esteban Ribovics

The steepest escalation on this card: 19.8 landed in an average first round, 45.2 in a second, 53.2 in a third — a 169% rise, with accuracy climbing 38.0% to 46.8% alongside it.
He is a pure distance fighter — 92.4%, 93.8% and 94.0% of his offence lands at range across the three rounds, with almost nothing in the clinch and nothing on the ground.
His knockdown average peaks at 0.20 in the second, which is the round he knocked out Edson Barboza in six weeks before this fight.
His third-round row rests on five scored rounds. The 53.2 figure is real but it is the least-sampled headline number in this bout.

Critical Insight
Two escalating strikers, and only one of them gets more accurate as he escalates faster than his opponent. Ribovics's curve is steeper in absolute terms — 19.8 to 53.2 against Green's 23.3 to 40.0 — but Green's accuracy ends at 55.9% against 46.8%, and his damage taken is 3.63 a minute against 5.74. The result is a fight where Ribovics wins the volume argument in Rounds 2 and 3 and Green wins the efficiency argument in all three. Which of those a judge rewards at 155 pounds is genuinely unpredictable, and it is why conviction sits at four.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

KingEsteban

82%Distance93%

9%Clinch2%

9%Ground5%

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceKing owns it

Two inches of reach, 53% accuracy against 44%, and 3.63 absorbed per minute against 5.74 — but Ribovics throws more from 92-94% distance

Pocket / ExchangesEsteban owns it

Ribovics's second round doubles his output and carries his 0.20 knockdown average; he knocked out Edson Barboza from exactly here

ClinchKing owns it

Green puts 7-11% of his offence in the clinch against Ribovics's 0.8-3.4%, and it is the entry to the takedown Ribovics defends at 66%

GroundKing owns it

Ten career submissions to five, 1.32 takedowns per fifteen to 0.32, against the only man here who has been submitted

Path to Victory

King Green

Make him miss. At 44% accuracy and 5.74 absorbed per minute, Ribovics pays for every round he tries to out-throw a counter-puncher.

Why they win

The better result against both shared opponents

He knocked out Terrance McKinney and Daniel Zellhuber; Ribovics knocked out one and split-decisioned the other, eighteen months earlier.

Nine points of accuracy

53% against 44%, and it holds every round: 51.6/51.9/55.9 against 38.0/43.4/46.8.

The defensive gap

62% striking defence and 3.63 significant strikes absorbed per minute against 54% and 5.74 — the widest damage differential on the main card.

Ten career submissions

Against a man whose only stoppage loss is a submission, and who defends 66% of takedowns against Green's 1.32 attempts per fifteen.

Four straight wins, two by finish

A first-round knockout, a first-round submission and a second-round knockout, all in 2026, at 39.

Sixty-two scored rounds to sixteen

Twenty-six Octagon bouts against six. Every uncertainty in this projection sits on the other side.

The gameplan

1
Win the first round decisively
It is the only round he out-lands Ribovics and the round where the accuracy gap is widest at thirteen points. Banking it changes what the last ten minutes have to do.
2
Counter, do not trade
Ribovics throws 7.43 a minute at 44%. Every exchange he initiates is an opportunity for a 53%-accuracy counter-puncher.
3
Attack the body early
Ribovics is 92-94% distance and escalates hard. Body work is the only investment that flattens a curve like that before the third round.
4
Show the takedown
He attempts 1.32 per fifteen against 66% defence, and his opponent has already been submitted once this year. Even a failed entry buys respect and resets the pace.
5
Take the third on accuracy
His output peaks at 40.0 and his accuracy at 55.9% there. Against a man landing 53.2 at 46.8%, the cleaner work is the argument to make loudly.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If he is being out-thrown two-to-one by the second, the counter game alone will not close it. That is the branch where ten career submissions stop being a footnote.

Path to Victory

Esteban Ribovics

Throw more than a 40-year-old can answer. His third round is 53.2 landed and nobody in the division matches it.

Why they win

The steepest output curve in the division

19.8 to 45.2 to 53.2 significant strikes landed — a 169% escalation, with accuracy rising as it goes.

Ten years younger

30 against 39, and fifty-four professional fights against nineteen. At 4,300 feet over fifteen minutes, that is a real asset.

A Round-2 knockout of Edson Barboza

Six weeks before this fight, and comfortably the best win on his record.

Green has been knocked out recently

Mauricio Ruffy stopped him in 2:07 of the first round in March 2025. The chin is tested, not impervious.

He out-lands Green in two of three rounds

45.2 to 32.2 in the second and 53.2 to 40.0 in the third. At 155 pounds, judges reward that.

Never knocked out

Sixteen wins and three losses, and the only stoppage against him is a submission. He does not fold under volume.

The gameplan

1
Bring the volume from the opening bell
His first round is his quietest at 19.8 landed and his least accurate at 38.0%. Green wins that round on the current numbers; Ribovics has to change it.
2
Keep it at range
92-94% of his offence lands at distance and Green attempts 1.32 takedowns per fifteen. There is no version of the clinch or the mat that helps him.
3
Target the second round
His knockdown average peaks at 0.20 there and he knocked out Edson Barboza from that window six weeks ago.
4
Use the altitude
He is ten years younger at 4,300 feet. Pace is not a risk for him here, it is a weapon — provided the accuracy does not collapse with it.
5
Do not chase the counter
Green's whole game is punishing initiative at 53%. Volume has to be structured, not desperate.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If the first two rounds are close and he is being countered clean, the third-round surge is his best asset — 53.2 landed — and he should spend all of it.

Danger Zone

How King Green loses

He is out-thrown by twenty-plus strikes in each of the last two rounds and loses a decision that the accuracy column says he won.
Ribovics finds the second-round shot that ended Edson Barboza, on a chin Mauricio Ruffy cracked eighteen months ago.
Forty years and 4,300 feet meet a 169% escalation curve, and the third round he normally owns becomes the round he loses.

Danger Zone

How Esteban Ribovics loses

He walks onto counters at 44% accuracy for fifteen minutes, absorbs 5.74 a minute doing it, and loses every efficiency argument on the cards.
He gets tired chasing a man who does not stand still, and the ten-submission grappler takes the fight where Mateusz Gamrot already beat him.
The first round goes 23.3 to 19.8 against him and he spends the rest of the fight needing a finish he has never got against this level.

The rarest thing on this card

Two Common Opponents, Both Read the Same Way

Green and Ribovics have both beaten Terrance McKinney and Daniel Zellhuber. Ribovics knocked McKinney out in 37 seconds in May 2024; Green knocked him out at 4:59 of the first in July 2026. Ribovics needed a split decision to beat Zellhuber in September 2024; Green knocked him out in the second round in February 2026. On both shared names, the 40-year-old produced the cleaner result — and produced it later.

shared opponents, both finished by Green

Ribovics's whole case

The Steepest Curve in the Division

Esteban Ribovics lands 19.8 significant strikes in an average first round and 53.2 in an average third — a 169% escalation, the steepest on this card, with accuracy climbing from 38.0% to 46.8% as it goes. Nobody at 155 pounds finishes fights busier. The question is whether that survives a man whose own third round is 40.0 at 55.9%.

19.8 → 53.2

Ribovics sig. strikes landed, R1 to R3

The cost of the volume

Five-Point-Seven-Four

Ribovics absorbs 5.74 significant strikes per minute — the highest figure in this bout and well clear of the ~4.02 lightweight baseline. Green absorbs 3.63 behind 62% striking defence. Over fifteen minutes that is roughly thirty extra strikes taken by the younger man, and the fighter delivering them lands at 53% accuracy.

5.74 v 3.63

significant strikes absorbed per minute

Why the age column is not decisive

Thirty-Nine, and Winning by Finish

Green is 39 with fifty-four professional fights and is on the best run of his career: four straight, including a first-round knockout, a first-round submission and a second-round knockout, all in 2026. His accuracy is at its highest in the third round (55.9%) and his output at its highest too (40.0). Age is the reason this is 54/46 and not wider — it is not, on the current evidence, a reason to pick against him.

The path outside the firefight

The Submission Nobody Prices

Green has ten career submissions and choked Jeremy Stephens out in the first round in May 2026. Ribovics has been finished once in his career — a second-round submission by Mateusz Gamrot in April 2026 — and defends 66% of takedowns against a man who attempts 1.32 per fifteen minutes. In a bout everyone will preview as a shootout, the grappling column is the quietest edge on the page.

10 v 5

career submissions

The Five-Round Clock

King Green danger windowEsteban Ribovics danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Green sets the terms

23.3 landed at 51.6% against 19.8 at 38.0%. It is the only round in which Green out-lands Ribovics, and the round in which the accuracy gap is widest at thirteen points. Green's knockdown average here is 0.11 to Ribovics's 0.17.

Critical Insight
A genuinely two-way clock, which is rare. Green owns the first round outright — it is the only frame where he out-lands Ribovics and the accuracy gap is at its widest. Ribovics owns the second, where his output more than doubles and his knockdown average peaks at the exact figure that ended Edson Barboza. The third is the fight: Ribovics lands 53.2 at 46.8% and Green lands 40.0 at 55.9% with the only meaningful knockdown threat left on the board. Volume or efficiency, at 4,300 feet, between a 30-year-old and a 40-year-old on a four-fight win streak.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

These two share two opponents — Terrance McKinney and Daniel Zellhuber — and King Green produced the cleaner result against both, eighteen months later, at 39.

Esteban Ribovics owns the steepest output curve on the card (19.8 → 53.2 landed) and the worst damage column in the bout (5.74 absorbed per minute against 3.63).

Model: Green 54% / Ribovics 46%, conviction 4/10 — the flattest outcome distribution on the main card, with no bucket above 28%.

100 Simulated Fights

Green Decision — 28%Ribovics Decision — 22%Green KO/TKO — 17%Ribovics KO/TKO — 18%Green Submission — 9%Ribovics Submission — 6%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. King Green gold · Esteban Ribovics orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Two shared opponents, both reading for Green

Green knocked out Terrance McKinney and Daniel Zellhuber; Ribovics knocked out one and needed a split decision for the other, eighteen months earlier.

Accuracy against volume

53% and 6.49 per minute against 44% and 7.43. Ribovics throws more; Green lands cleaner in every single round.

The damage differential

3.63 significant strikes absorbed per minute against 5.74, behind 62% striking defence against 54%.

The escalation curve

Ribovics rises 169% from Round 1 to Round 3 and out-lands Green in the last two rounds. It is the strongest single argument for the underdog.

Ten years and 4,300 feet

Green is 39 with fifty-four professional fights; Ribovics is 30 with nineteen, at the highest-altitude venue on the calendar.

Ten career submissions against one submission loss

The quietest edge in the fight: Green's grappling, aimed at the only phase Ribovics has ever been beaten in.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Craft Holds

Green counters the pressure at 53% accuracy, banks the first on the biggest accuracy gap in the fight, absorbs the second-round surge behind 62% striking defence, and out-lands a fading Ribovics in a third round he finishes at 55.9%. A 29-28 that his four-fight streak has already rehearsed three times.

Scripted outcomes for King Green vs Esteban Ribovics — how each version of this fight unfolds.

King Green win probability

17%

28%

KO/TKODECSUB

Thirteen career knockouts and two in 2026 alone, including a first-round finish of Terrance McKinney — the same man Ribovics knocked out. Concentrated in the third round, where his accuracy peaks at 55.9%.
The largest bucket on the page. Thirteen decision wins, a 62% striking defence, and an output curve that reaches 40.0 landed at better than half accuracy in the third.
Ten career submissions and a first-round choke of Jeremy Stephens four months ago, aimed at the only man in this cage who has ever been tapped. The quietest live path in the fight.

Esteban Ribovics win probability

18%

22%

KO/TKODECSUB

The largest single bucket in his column. Eight career knockouts, a 0.20 second-round knockdown average, and a Round-2 finish of Edson Barboza six weeks ago — against a chin that Mauricio Ruffy cracked in 2025.
The volume path. 45.2 and 53.2 significant strikes landed in the second and third rounds is a scoring argument no judge ignores, even at 44% accuracy.
Five career submissions and 0.16 attempts per fifteen minutes. He is not a mat fighter and Green is; this bucket is a scramble accident.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

King

Esteban

King

29-28 Green

Ribovics takes the second on volume; Green takes the outside rounds on accuracy and damage

The most likely card, and the shape the model expects

29-28 Ribovics

The same fight with the third scored on output rather than accuracy

Equally live — 53.2 landed is hard for any judge to score against

30-27 Green

The counter game solves the pressure early and never gives a round back

His Zellhuber template, which Ribovics could not produce against the same man

Moneyline

King Green

Not posted

Esteban Ribovics

Not posted

No book has published a line for this bout at the time of writing. Converting our own probabilities gives fair prices of King Green -117 from 54% and Esteban Ribovics +117 from 46% — model outputs, not quotes, and close to a true pick'em. Live prices appear in the hero above once a market opens.

Props: model vs market

Prop	Odds	Implied %	Model %	Fair	Edge	Verdict

Best Value
Green by submission at 9% is the most under-priced outcome on the page: ten career submissions, a first-round choke of Jeremy Stephens in May 2026, 1.32 takedown attempts per fifteen minutes, and an opponent whose only stoppage loss is a Round-2 tap to Mateusz Gamrot. Nobody previewing a shootout will price it. The structural read is the fight going the distance at 50% combined, and if the market makes Ribovics a favourite on youth and volume, Green on the moneyline is the value side — the shared-opponent evidence says the older man is the better fighter right now.

Conviction

4/10

A genuine coin flip with a thumb on the older man, and the thumb is the shared-opponent evidence. Green beat both Terrance McKinney and Daniel Zellhuber more decisively than Ribovics did, and did it eighteen months later while riding a four-fight win streak that includes a knockout, a submission and a knockout. He is also nine points more accurate, defends eight points better and absorbs two fewer strikes a minute. What holds this at four is that Ribovics out-lands him in two of three rounds by a widening margin, is ten years younger at 4,300 feet, and just knocked out Edson Barboza — while Green was himself knocked out inside a round as recently as March 2025. Lean: King Green.

What backs the lean

Cleaner results against both shared opponents, McKinney and Zellhuber, and eighteen months more recently.
Nine points of striking accuracy — 53% to 44% — holding in every scored round.
62% striking defence and 3.63 significant strikes absorbed per minute against 54% and 5.74.
Ten career submissions against a man whose only stoppage loss is a submission.
Four straight wins in 2026 including a first-round knockout and a first-round choke.
Sixty-two scored UFC rounds against sixteen — the deepest sample in the bout by four times.

What limits it

Ribovics out-lands him in the second and third rounds — 45.2 to 32.2 and 53.2 to 40.0.
A 169% output escalation from Round 1 to Round 3, the steepest on this card.
Ten years younger, in a three-round fight at 4,300 feet of elevation.
A second-round knockout of Edson Barboza six weeks before this bout.
Green was knocked out by Mauricio Ruffy in 2:07 of the first round in March 2025.
Ribovics has never been knocked out in nineteen professional fights.

Final Assessment

In roughly fifty-four of one hundred simulations King Green wins, and in twenty-eight of those he wins on the scorecards. The mechanism is nine points of accuracy applied every round — 51.6% to 38.0% in the first, 51.9% to 43.4% in the second, 55.9% to 46.8% in the third — behind 62% striking defence and 3.63 significant strikes absorbed per minute. Seventeen more end by knockout, most of them in a third round he finishes at 40.0 landed, and nine end with the tenth submission of a fifty-four-fight career.

In the other forty-six, Esteban Ribovics simply throws more than a 40-year-old can answer. His output escalates 169% from the first round to the third — 19.8 to 45.2 to 53.2 — and out-lands Green in the last ten minutes by margins no judge ignores. Twenty-two of those are decisions and eighteen are knockouts, most arriving in the second round where his knockdown average peaks at 0.20 and where he stopped Edson Barboza six weeks earlier.

The rarest thing about this fight is that we do not have to guess at the comparison. Both men have beaten Terrance McKinney and Daniel Zellhuber, and the 40-year-old produced the better result against each — later, and by finish. On October 3 in Salt Lake City, at 4,300 feet — Green 54% / Ribovics 46%, conviction 4/10, and the flattest outcome distribution of any fight on this card.

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