Roman Kopylov vs Ateba Gautier – UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang Fight Analytics & Prediction

MAIN CARD · MIDDLEWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

Roman Kopylov

15W5L

Layered Striker

Ateba Gautier

11W1L

Power Striker

Kopylov's structure versus Gautier's damaging bursts

MiddleweightDelta Center, Salt Lake City, UtahOctober 3, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon · main-card middleweight

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Gautier wants to fight at the end of his long reach and counter Kopylov's entries with clean power; three of his five UFC wins ended in the first round. Kopylov has to close distance behind layered combinations and exit on angles, not straight back. If he gets through the opening exchanges unhurt, his experience and volume can own the later rounds, where Gautier has rarely been.

Paths that change the fight

Roman KopylovKeep combinations controlled, defend connected entries, and resume striking only once he has a secure exit — bank three rounds of 4.54 SLpM optics.
Ateba GautierUse reach and counter power to land early, stay off the fence, and make Kopylov absorb clean shots before his volume builds.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10

Kopylov absorbs 5.08 SApM — durability versus 2.87 KD/15 is the central swing.
Gautier +6-inch reach and 76-inch height — counter and power lanes at middleweight.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Roman Kopylov

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 52%
Fair odds: -108

Reference quote: +177 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.92

Ateba Gautier

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 48%
Fair odds: +108

Reference quote: -205 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.08

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, round splits, simulation buckets, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Gautier arrives unbeaten in the Octagon, a long, young finisher who rarely lets a fight settle, while Kopylov is the veteran who steadied himself with a win over Marco Tulio after back-to-back decision losses. Both are knockout artists, but they work on opposite clocks: seven of Gautier's nine stoppages came in the first round, while nearly all of Kopylov's have come after it. That makes this a question of timing more than power. The swing factor is how much Kopylov is willing to absorb while he builds, because against this reach the early toll arrives before his best work.

Roman Kopylov

Attribute

Ateba Gautier

Age

Ten-year gap24

6' 0"

Height

+4" Gautier6' 4"

75"

Reach

+6" Gautier81"

41"

Leg Reach

44"

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

15-5-0

Pro Record

11-1-0

7-5

UFC Record

5-0

Layered striking, takedown change-ups

Fighting Style

Long-range power striking

Gautier is four inches taller, has a six-inch reach edge and is ten years younger — the frame to land power from outside Kopylov's range. He arrives on a five-fight UFC win streak, the latest a second-round TKO of Ozzy Diaz.

Venue Factor
Three rounds favour the fighter who can bank clean striking minutes. Gautier's reach and 2.87 knockdowns per fifteen make every early exchange dangerous; Kopylov's fifteen-minute fights with Tulio, Rodrigues and Costa show he can work deep into a fight, but he absorbs 5.08 significant strikes per minute along the way.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Roman Kopylov

Pro Record

15-5-0

UFC Record

12 completed UFC bouts

Streak

Win — decision over Marco Tulio (May 2026)

Finish Rate

12 KO/TKO in 15 pro wins

Avg Fight Time

12:16 (UFC)

Chin · AverageSOS · UFC middleweightStructured striker

Kopylov is 15-5 with 12 UFC fights and 12 career knockouts. The last five: decision over Marco Tulio, decision losses to Gregory Rodrigues and Paulo Costa, then a knockout of Chris Curtis and a decision over Cesar Almeida.

Ateba Gautier

Pro Record

11-1-0

UFC Record

5 completed UFC bouts

Streak

Five-fight UFC win streak, last a KO/TKO of Ozzy Diaz

Finish Rate

9 KO/TKO in 11 pro wins

Avg Fight Time

5:31 (UFC)

Chin · AverageSOS · Finishing middleweightDamaging finisher

Gautier is 11-1 with five UFC wins, the latest a knockout of Ozzy Diaz. He also decisioned Andrey Pulyaev. The finishing streak is the threat; his UFC résumé is five fights long.

Roman Kopylov

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Ateba Gautier

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Roman Kopylovsignature weapons

Body AttackPunches to the body finished Enomoto and Fremd; a spinning back kick finished Gugov; a body kick and punches finished Soriano

×4

PunchesSantos, Shokalo, Dutra and Di Chirico (R3 at UFC Fight Night, Paris)

×4

Head KickRibeiro in R2 at UFC 291; Curtis at 4:59 of R3 in January 2025

×2

Ateba Gautiersignature weapons

PunchesValentin (R1, UFC 318), Diaz (R2, UFC 328), Naito, de Souza and Lysak

×5

Knees in the FlurryPunches and a knee finished Medina (R1, March 2025) and Lai

×2

ElbowsElbows and punches stopped Tre'ston Vines at 1:41 of R1 (UFC 320)

×1

Roman Kopylov

Marco Tulio

Decision

Opponent context: veteran

UFC 328 — May 2026

Gregory Rodrigues

Decision

Opponent context: veteran

UFC 322 — Nov 2025

Paulo Costa

Decision

Opponent context: elite

UFC 318 — Jul 2025

Chris Curtis

KO/TKO

Opponent context: veteran

UFC Fight Night — Jan 2025

Cesar Almeida

Decision

Opponent context: veteran

UFC 302 — Jun 2024

Pattern

Kopylov’s last win is a decision over Marco Tulio. The two losses before that went the distance against Rodrigues and Costa.

Ateba Gautier

Ozzy Diaz

KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

UFC 328 — May 2026

Andrey Pulyaev

Decision

Opponent context: veteran

UFC 324 — Jan 2026

Tre'ston Vines

KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

UFC 320 — Oct 2025

Robert Valentin

KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

UFC 318 — Jul 2025

Jose Daniel Medina

KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

UFC Fight Night — Mar 2025

Pattern

Gautier won his last five UFC fights, including a knockout of Ozzy Diaz and a decision over Pulyaev.

Roman Kopylov

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Ateba Gautier

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Both records are knockout-heavy — 12 of Kopylov's 15 wins and 9 of Gautier's 11 — and neither man has a submission win. The timing splits them: Kopylov has one first-round stoppage, with eleven of his twelve coming in R2 or later, while Gautier has finished seven of nine in the first round. Four of Kopylov's last five fights went the distance, which is why the model gives him a 24-point decision bucket; Gautier's early finishing record drives his 32-point KO share.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Roman	Ateba
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	UFC middleweight — Decision loss to Gregory Rodrigues and Paulo Costa sit behind the Tulio win	Finishing middleweight — Also decisioned Andrey Pulyaev and stopped Vines, Valentin and Medina
UFC sample	12 completed UFC bouts	5 completed UFC bouts
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	1 elite · 4 veteran tier	0 elite · 1 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (11 vs 6 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponents	Marco Tulio, Gregory Rodrigues, Paulo Costa	Ozzy Diaz, Andrey Pulyaev, Tre'ston Vines

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Roman

Atebafew UFC fights

Gautier by four. Kopylov lands more, and more accurately (4.54 per minute at 50% against 4.32 at 44%), but Gautier absorbs about half as much (2.6 per minute against 5.08) and defends one point better (54% against 53%).

Grappling

Roman

Atebafew UFC fights

Kopylov by six on takedown activity — 1.12 per fifteen minutes against 0.41. Gautier's 94% takedown defence is higher than Kopylov's 89%, and neither fighter attempts submissions.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

Roman

Atebafew UFC fights

Effectively level: Gautier's striking edge and Kopylov's grappling edge cancel out. The 52/48 lean rests on Kopylov's output and twelve-fight UFC résumé, not on this gauge.

Metric	Roman	Ateba
UFC Bouts	12	5
Pace Tier	4.54 SLpM — steady volume	4.32 SLpM — selective
TD Defence	89%	94%
Knockdowns / 15	0.92	2.87
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	3-round bout	3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Layered Striker 52%48% Power Striker

Matchup-specific model lean · 52/48 model lean: favour Kopylov on volume, accuracy, takedown activity and UFC experience over three rounds; cap confidence because Gautier's 2.87 KD/15 and reach can end the fight on one clean connection.

Roman KopylovAteba Gautier

Middleweight

· 55 fighters

No comparable division benchmark is published for this sample. These values describe each fighter; no division rank is assigned.

Stat	Roman	Ateba
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	4.54	4.32
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	50%	44%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	53%	54%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	5.08	2.60
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.12	0.41
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	89%	94%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.00	0.00
KD/15	0.92	2.87

Statistical Verdict
Kopylov lands slightly more and more accurately and owns the takedown column; Gautier absorbs half as much, defends takedowns better and knocks opponents down three times as often.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R3: single-fight sample for Ateba Gautier

Control Time per Round (sec)

Roman Kopylov

Twelve UFC fights behind R1 and R2; eight reached R3.
Output holds across rounds — 21.1, 19.8 and 22.3 significant strikes landed on average — while the head share climbs from 54% to 76% as leg kicks fall from 26% to 7%.
Eight of his nine UFC knockdowns came in R2 or R3; he has one in twelve first rounds.
Control time rises to 51 seconds per round in R3, mostly from the Almeida and Tulio fights.

Ateba Gautier

Five UFC fights in R1, two in R2 and only the Pulyaev decision in R3 — the later rows rest on a very small sample.
Four knockdowns in five UFC first rounds, six in eight UFC rounds overall.
82% of his first-round landings go to the head and 84% come at distance.
Almost no control time: one second per first round on average, none after that.

Critical Insight
The knockdown timing runs in opposite directions. Gautier's arrive early (four in five first rounds) while Kopylov's arrive late (eight of nine in R2 or R3). Kopylov out-lands Gautier's per-round averages in every round, so the fight tilts toward him the longer it lasts — provided he gets through the rounds where Gautier has done his damage.

Strike targeting

Roman

66%

19%

15%

Head

66%

Body

19%

Legs

15%

Ateba

75%

21%

Head

75%

Body

21%

Legs

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

RomanAteba

92%Distance85%

4%Clinch11%

4%Ground4%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceRoman owns it

4.54 vs 4.32 SLpM at 50% vs 44% accuracy; 93% of Kopylov's early landings come at distance — Gautier's +6-inch reach keeps it close

Pocket / ExchangesAteba owns it

2.87 vs 0.92 knockdowns per fifteen and 2.6 vs 5.08 absorbed per minute — the damage trade favours Gautier

ClinchEven

Little evidence either way: 5% of Kopylov's first-round landings and 12% of Gautier's come in the clinch

GroundRoman owns it

Kopylov's 1.12 TD/15 and up to 51 seconds of control per round against Gautier's 0.41 — capped by Gautier's 94% takedown defence

Path to Victory

Roman Kopylov

Keep combinations controlled, defend connected entries, and resume striking only once he has a secure exit — bank three rounds of 4.54 SLpM optics.

Why they win

Striking workload

4.54 SLpM at 50% accuracy — edges Gautier's 4.32 at 44%.

Takedown defence

89% TDDef keeps the fight standing on his terms whenever Gautier changes levels.

UFC experience

Twelve UFC bouts to Gautier's five — more rounds against varied middleweight styles.

Grappling as a change-up

1.12 TD/15 against Gautier's 0.41 — Kopylov has the only real takedown threat in the matchup.

Knockout résumé

Twelve career knockouts and 0.92 KD/15 — he can end the fight if Gautier's chin is tested.

The gameplan

1
Close the distance
Enter behind layered combinations; do not stand at the end of Gautier's reach.
2
Exit on angles
Leave every exchange off-line so Gautier's counters land on air.
3
Body and leg work
Slow Gautier's movement and take away his range.
4
Respect the power counter
Gautier's stoppages of Medina, Valentin and Vines (all R1) and Diaz (R2) are the tape to study — keep the chin down on exits.
5
Win minutes, not one shot
Tulio template — the decision path is Kopylov's largest bucket.

Path to Victory

Ateba Gautier

Use reach and counter power to land early, stay off the fence, and make Kopylov absorb clean shots before his volume builds.

Why they win

Reach and frame

+6-inch reach and +4-inch height — he can land from range Kopylov cannot reach.

Knockdown power

2.87 KD/15 — one clean counter changes the fight.

Unbeaten UFC run

5-0 in the UFC with four stoppages, three of them in the first round.

Lower absorption

2.6 significant strikes absorbed per minute against Kopylov's 5.08 — he takes far less damage per exchange.

Youth

Ten years younger at 24 — fresher legs if the fight goes fifteen minutes.

The gameplan

1
Counter at range
Make Kopylov pay for every entry with straight shots from distance.
2
Stuff the takedown
94% TDDef — deny Kopylov's 1.12 TD/15 and keep the fight standing.
3
Punish the exits
Counter as Kopylov resets — he absorbs 5.08 significant strikes per minute.
4
Lower volume, higher leverage
4.32 SLpM is enough if knockdowns swing rounds.
5
Target the body
Tax Kopylov's pace and compress his combinations late in each round.

Danger Zone

How Roman Kopylov loses

A power counter lands before Kopylov establishes range — the model's primary reversal.
Three rounds of partial defence without re-striking — judges see Gautier's power moments as round winners.
Costa repeat — out-worked on the cards when volume does not translate to clean optics.

Danger Zone

How Ateba Gautier loses

Layered combinations accumulate — Kopylov's 52% model share lives in sustained striking minutes.
Cardio tax in minute twelve — Gautier has gone fifteen minutes only once in the UFC.
Out-landed without a finish — loses every round on significant strikes.

Matchup interpretation

The phase that changes the comparison

Kopylov's slightly higher output and accuracy give him a route through repeated scoring exchanges. Gautier's reach and knockdown rate give him ways to interrupt that rhythm. Kopylov cannot treat a clean first exchange as the end of the danger.

Counterargument

What would change the selection

Gautier's power gives him ways to make a lower-volume fight more consequential. Kopylov must avoid treating pressure as safety.

3 rounds

Distance and repeatability

The volume gap is narrow; Kopylov's durability against Gautier's power is the central question.

model win % for Kopylov

Main-card context

Age vs. pace

Ten years separate them. Three rounds favour Kopylov's volume if Gautier's early power misses; Gautier wants contact early, before Kopylov's pace builds.

Method split

Knockout tail

Thirty-two of Gautier's forty-eight model points are knockouts — the fight can flip on one clean shot even if strikes favour Kopylov for twelve minutes. Spread by his career timing (seven of nine stoppages in R1), about 61% of his projected wins end in the first round; Kopylov's finishes spread across R2 and R3 instead.

Gautier KO share (%)

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 4 things

Roman Kopylov's 4.54 SLpM, 50% accuracy, and 89% takedown defence define the repeatable route — provided he survives Gautier's early power.

Ateba Gautier's 2.87 KD/15, +6-inch reach and 2.6 SApM make every exchange dangerous for Kopylov; the model's primary reversal is a clean power counter.

Model: Kopylov 52% / Gautier 48%, conviction 4/10. Fair price −108 / +108 — BetOnline flips the favourite at Kopylov +177 / Gautier -205, a 65–35 Gautier market once the margin is removed.

The market and the model agree this fight probably ends early — does not go the distance is -190 (65.5% implied) against a 66% model share — but they split on who ends it: the no-action-on-a-decision line makes Gautier the finisher 73.3% of the time at -275, while the model has him at 58%.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Kopylov Decision — 24%Kopylov KO/TKO — 18%Kopylov Submission — 10%Gautier KO/TKO — 32%Gautier Decision — 10%Gautier Submission — 6%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Roman Kopylov gold · Ateba Gautier orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Kopylov's durability

5.08 SApM against 2.87 KD/15 is the central swing; the model favours Kopylov if he survives the early rounds.

Volume vs. power

4.54 SLpM against 2.87 KD/15 defines the fork.

Kopylov TDDef

89% keeps the fight standing on his terms, though Gautier's 0.41 TD/15 rarely tests it.

Gautier age and form

24 and 5-0 in the UFC — caps conviction at 4/10.

Knockdown rates

0.92 vs 2.87 KD/15 keeps early swing equity for both sides.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Counter Knockout

Gautier counters a combination from range and stops Kopylov standing, as he did to Diaz, Vines, Valentin and Medina — the largest single bucket.

Scripted outcomes for Roman Kopylov vs Ateba Gautier — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Roman Kopylov win probability

18%

24%

10%

KO/TKODECSUB

Eighteen points — twelve career KO wins and 0.92 KD/15, capped by Gautier's reach and 54% StrDef.
Twenty-four points — Tulio decision and a twelve-fight UFC résumé; largest bucket when rhythm holds three rounds.
Ten points — 1.12 TD/15 with no submission attempts; a grappling-minute tail only.

Ateba Gautier win probability

32%

10%

KO/TKODECSUB

Thirty-two points — 2.87 KD/15, nine career KOs, and five-fight finish-heavy UFC run.
Ten points — Pulyaev decision shows he can go three; narrow path if power does not land.
Six points — no submission attempts in the UFC; tail only.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Even

Roman

29-28 Kopylov

Gautier's power takes a contested R1; Kopylov's output takes R2 and R3

Modal card inside the 24% decision bucket

30-27 Kopylov

Kopylov out-lands him in all three rounds without a knockdown against him

Live if Kopylov's chin holds through R1

29-28 Gautier

A first-round knockdown plus a second power moment steal two rounds

Primary path inside the 10% decision share

Model and price

Roman Kopylov

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 52%
Fair odds: -108

Reference quote: +177 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.92

Estimated EV: +44.0%
Edge vs no-vig market: +17.1 pp

Ateba Gautier

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 48%
Fair odds: +108

Reference quote: -205 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.08

Estimated EV: -28.6%
Edge vs no-vig market: -17.1 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Roman Kopylov

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.93 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Ateba Gautier

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.09 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

6 value leans1 large gap3 fair8 avoid

Roman Kopylov by submission or decision+350+11.8ppRoman Kopylov inside the distance (no action on a decision)+215+10.3ppRoman Kopylov by KO/TKO or decision+195+8.1ppFight ends by submission+900+6.0pp+2 more in table

Full prop table (18)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
Prop	Reference quote	Implied %	Model %	Fair odds	Difference (pp)	Estimated EV	Our read
Roman Kopylov by submission or decision	+350BetOnline	22.2%	34%	+1942.94 decimal	+11.8	+53.0%	Value lean
Roman Kopylov inside the distance (no action on a decision)	+215BetOnline	31.7%	42%	+1382.38 decimal	+10.3	+32.3%	Value lean
Roman Kopylov by KO/TKO or decision	+195BetOnline	33.9%	42%	+1382.38 decimal	+8.1	+23.9%	Value lean
Fight ends by submission	+900BetOnline	10.0%	16%	+5256.25 decimal	+6.0	+60.0%	Value lean
Roman Kopylov wins inside the distance	+350BetOnline	22.2%	28%	+2573.57 decimal	+5.8	+26.0%	Value lean
Roman Kopylov by submission	+2200BetOnline	4.3%	10%	+90010.00 decimal	+5.7	+130.0%	Value lean
Ateba Gautier by KO/TKO or decision	-200BetOnline	66.7%	42%	+1382.38 decimal	-24.7	-37.0%	Large gap — review
Ateba Gautier by submission	+2200BetOnline	4.3%	6%	+156716.67 decimal	+1.7	+38.0%	Fair price
Roman Kopylov by decision	+335BetOnline	23.0%	24%	+3174.17 decimal	+1.0	+4.4%	Fair price
Fight does not go the distance	-190BetOnline	65.5%	66%	-1941.52 decimal	+0.5	+0.7%	Fair price
Roman Kopylov by KO/TKO	+385BetOnline	20.6%	18%	+4565.56 decimal	-2.6	-12.7%	Avoid / overpriced
Fight goes the distance	+155BetOnline	39.2%	34%	+1942.94 decimal	-5.2	-13.3%	Avoid / overpriced
Ateba Gautier by submission or decision	+300BetOnline	25.0%	16%	+5256.25 decimal	-9.0	-36.0%	Avoid / overpriced
Ateba Gautier by decision	+335BetOnline	23.0%	10%	+90010.00 decimal	-13.0	-56.5%	Avoid / overpriced
Ateba Gautier wins inside the distance	-105BetOnline	51.2%	38%	+1632.63 decimal	-13.2	-25.8%	Avoid / overpriced
Fight ends by KO/TKO	-175BetOnline	63.6%	50%	+1002.00 decimal	-13.6	-21.4%	Avoid / overpriced
Ateba Gautier inside the distance (no action on a decision)	-275BetOnline	73.3%	58%	-1381.72 decimal	-15.3	-20.9%	Avoid / overpriced
Ateba Gautier by KO/TKO	+105BetOnline	48.8%	32%	+2123.13 decimal	-16.8	-34.4%	Avoid / overpriced

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Analyst price notes

Written against the prices of September 30.

The board flips the favourite: BetOnline has Gautier -205, 65–35 once the margin is removed, while the model leans Kopylov 52–48 with fair odds of -108, so Kopylov +177 (36.1% implied against 52%) reads as a value lean just short of the large-gap band. The props that track Kopylov's real routes are the cleaner way in: Kopylov inside the distance (no action on a decision) at +215 (31.7% implied vs a 42% model share, fair +138) and Kopylov by KO/TKO or decision at +195 (33.9% vs 42%, fair +138), both resting on twelve career knockouts, output that holds across all three rounds, eight of nine UFC knockdowns landed in R2 or R3 and the Tulio decision template. Kopylov by submission at +2200, Kopylov by submission or decision at +350 and the fight ends by submission at +900 also grade as value leans, but they lean on submission buckets that are tails in the model — neither man has a submission win — so they are the thinnest reads on the board. Avoid Gautier by KO/TKO at +105 (48.8% vs 32%) and Gautier wins inside the distance at -105 (51.2% vs 38%), while Gautier by KO/TKO or decision at -200 (66.7% vs 42%) is the one large gap: the market is paying for a 5-0 UFC run, 2.87 knockdowns per fifteen and Kopylov's 5.08 strikes absorbed per minute, and that deserves weight because Gautier's UFC sample is only five fights, three of them over in the first round, so the model's read on him carries more uncertainty than its read on Kopylov.

Conviction

4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Favour Kopylov on 4.54 SLpM, 50% StrAcc, 1.12 TD/15 and 89% TDDef over three rounds. Gautier's 2.87 KD/15, +6-inch reach and 2.6 SApM make every exchange dangerous — Kopylov's 5.08 SApM caps confidence at 4/10. Lean: Roman Kopylov.

What backs the lean

Twelve completed UFC bouts versus Gautier's five — broader resistance and decision proofs (Tulio).
50% StrAcc and 1.12 TD/15 — layered striking plus modest grappling activity.
89% takedown defence supports staying upright against a striker-first opponent.
Three of Gautier's five UFC wins ended in the first round and only the Pulyaev decision went past R2 — he has seen little of the later rounds.

What limits it

Kopylov absorbs 5.08 SApM — durability versus 2.87 KD/15 is the central swing.
Gautier +6-inch reach and 76-inch height — counter and power lanes at middleweight.
Gautier's 94% TDDef limits Kopylov's takedown change-up.
Recent Kopylov losses to Rodrigues and Costa went the distance on damage economics.

Final Assessment

Roman Kopylov vs Ateba Gautier is a main-card middleweight striking fork over three rounds. Kopylov lands 4.54 significant strikes per minute at 50% accuracy with 53% defence, 5.08 absorbed, 1.12 takedowns per fifteen, and 89% takedown defence across twelve UFC bouts. Gautier lands at 4.32 per minute with 44% accuracy, absorbs 2.6, deals 2.87 knockdowns per fifteen, and brings a +6-inch reach edge with a 5-0 UFC run.

The model leans Kopylov 52% to Gautier 48% with conviction 4 out of 10 because the repeatable route is varied exchanges and modest grappling minutes, while the primary reversal is Gautier landing clean power before Kopylov establishes rhythm. Method shares: Kopylov 18 KO / 24 decision / 10 submission; Gautier 32 KO / 10 decision / 6 submission. Fair moneyline: Kopylov −108 · Gautier +108; BetOnline posts Kopylov +177 and Gautier -205.

The honest read: take Kopylov narrowly on experience and takedown activity, respect Gautier's knockdown equity — the market already prices it heavily at -205 — and do not treat high TDDef percentages as proof clinch adjustments cannot appear. The damage-economy comparison is closer than Gautier's highlight finishes suggest. On this board the better-priced side is Kopylov: +177 on the moneyline and +195 by KO/TKO or decision.

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