Roman Kopylov vs Ateba Gautier – UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang Fight Analytics & Prediction

MAIN CARD · MIDDLEWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

Roman Kopylov

15W5L

Counter Kickboxer

…

Ateba Gautier

11W1L

Long-Range Knockout Artist

…

Six inches of reach and a one-per-round knockdown average against a veteran who absorbs five strikes a minute

MiddleweightDelta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah, United StatesOctober 3, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon · 4,300 ft elevation

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

A kickboxing match with four-ounce gloves, and the numbers say so plainly: twenty-six professional wins between these two and not one submission, with takedown defence of 89% and 94%. Nothing happens on the mat. What decides it is that Ateba Gautier is 6'4" with an 81-inch reach and 24 years old, and Roman Kopylov is 6'0" with 75 inches and 34. The damage column follows the frame — Gautier absorbs 2.60 significant strikes per minute and Kopylov 5.08, the worst figure on either sheet and well above the middleweight baseline. Then there is the single most extreme number in this analysis set: across four scored first rounds, Gautier averages one knockdown per round. Three of his five UFC wins ended in the opening five minutes and his average fight time is 6:06. Kopylov's case is everything after that. He holds 21.6, 19.5 and 22.0 significant strikes landed across three rounds over twenty-nine scored rounds of data, his own knockdown average climbs to 0.29 by the third, and he averages 12:16 a fight against a prospect whose output falls 28% by Round 3 and whose second and third-round rows rest on one round each. Model: Gautier 58% / Kopylov 42%, conviction 5/10.

Roman Kopylov

Attribute

Ateba Gautier

Age

10 years24

6'0" (72")

Height

+4" Gautier6'4" (76")

75"

Reach

+6" Gautier81"

41"

Leg Reach

+3" Gautier44"

Counter kickboxing off a sambo base

Fighting Style

Long-range knockout striker

Kemerovo Oblast, Russia

Origin

Yaoundé, Cameroon

5.08 per minute

Damage Absorbed

2.60 per minute

2-2 in his last four

Recent Form

5-0 in the UFC, all but one by knockout

The largest frame gap on the main card. Gautier gives away four inches of height and six of reach to nobody in this division, let alone to a 6'0" counter-striker, and he pairs it with three inches more leg reach. In a bout where neither man wrestles — 1.12 and 0.41 takedown attempts per fifteen minutes, zero career submissions between them — range is not one factor among several, it is the entire fight. Kopylov's answer has to be pressure, and pressure is expensive against someone who absorbs half the damage he does.

Venue Factor
The Delta Center sits at roughly 4,300 feet, the highest-altitude venue on the 2026 calendar. Over three rounds the tax is modest, but it lands on output before anything else, and it lands hardest in the third. Gautier has been to a third round once in five UFC appearances; Kopylov has been there seven times.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Roman Kopylov

Pro Record

15-5-0

UFC Record

8-5 in eleven Octagon appearances

Streak

Coming off a decision win over Marco Tulio

Finish Rate

80% (12 of 15 wins) — 12 KO/TKO, 0 submissions, 3 decisions

Avg Fight Time

12:16 in the UFC

Chin · SolidSOS · Good — top-fifteen middleweight scheduleCounter kickboxer

A pure striker with no submission wins in fifteen career victories — twelve knockouts, three decisions, nothing else. Kopylov lost his first three UFC fights, then reeled off five straight stoppages between 2022 and 2024, and has since settled into the hard middle of the division: a split decision over Cesar Almeida, a third-round knockout of Chris Curtis, then decision losses to Paulo Costa and Gregory Rodrigues, then a unanimous decision over Marco Tulio at UFC 328 in May 2026. His round profile is unusually stable — 21.6, 19.5 and 22.0 significant strikes landed at 51.7%, 52.2% and 45.8% — and his knockdown average climbs every round, 0.09 to 0.27 to 0.29. The problem underneath is the damage column: 5.08 significant strikes absorbed per minute is well above the middleweight baseline and the worst number on his sheet.

Ateba Gautier

Pro Record

11-1-0

UFC Record

5-0 — unbeaten in the Octagon

Streak

Five straight UFC wins, four by knockout

Finish Rate

82% (9 of 11 wins) — 9 KO/TKO, 0 submissions, 2 decisions

Avg Fight Time

6:06 in the UFC

Chin · Untested — never stoppedSOS · Rising — five straight UFC winsLong-range knockout artist

The fastest-moving prospect at 185 pounds. Gautier is 24, stands 6'4" with an 81-inch reach, and has won all five of his UFC fights since a Contender Series knockout in September 2024 — four of them by stoppage, the most recent a second-round finish of Ozzy Diaz at UFC 328 in May 2026. His average fight time of 6:06 is the shortest on this card by a distance. The round data carries a number that does not appear anywhere else in this set: a knockdown average of 1.00 in the first round across four scored rounds. He also absorbs just 2.60 significant strikes per minute, half of Kopylov's 5.08. The caveat is the sample — three of his rounds of data are single-round rows, and his output actually falls as fights go on, 15.3 to 15.0 to 11.0.

Roman Kopylov

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Ateba Gautier

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Roman Kopylovsignature weapons

The Round-2 CounterTwelve career knockouts and a knockdown average that climbs every round — 0.09, 0.27, 0.29 — behind 92-95% of his offence landing at distance

×12

Distance Discipline92.4%, 94.9% and 93.5% of his landed strikes come at range across the three rounds, with almost no clinch or ground work at all

×15

Ateba Gautiersignature weapons

The Opening-Round KnockoutA first-round knockdown average of 1.00 across four scored rounds, and three of his five UFC wins ended in Round 1 — Vines at 1:41, Valentin at 1:10, Medina at 3:32

×9

Six Inches of Reach81 inches at 6'4", the longest frame on this card, behind a damage-absorbed figure of 2.60 per minute — half his opponent's

×9

Roman Kopylov

Marco Tulio

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC 328 — May 9, 2026

Gregory Rodrigues

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC 322 — Nov 15, 2025

Paulo Costa

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC 318 — Jul 19, 2025

Chris Curtis

KO/TKO

RR3

UFC Fight Night — Jan 11, 2025

Cesar Almeida

Decision — Split

RR3

UFC 302 — Jun 1, 2024

Pattern

Two wins and two losses in his last four, and the shape is consistent: he beats the prospects and loses to the ranked men. The Chris Curtis knockout in January 2025 is the best win on his record and the Paulo Costa and Gregory Rodrigues decisions are the ceiling. He has never been finished by strikes in the UFC, which matters against a man whose entire case is the opening round.

Ateba Gautier

Ozzy Diaz

KO/TKO

RR2 (1:10)

UFC 328 — May 9, 2026

Andrey Pulyaev

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC 324 — Jan 24, 2026

Tre'ston Vines

KO/TKO

RR1 (1:41)

UFC 320 — Oct 4, 2025

Robert Valentin

KO/TKO

RR1 (1:10)

UFC 318 — Jul 19, 2025

Jose Daniel Medina

KO/TKO

RR1 (3:32)

UFC FN: Moreno vs. Erceg — Mar 29, 2025

Pattern

Five for five since the Contender Series, four by knockout, and the one that went to the cards was a shutout of Andrey Pulyaev. Nobody has taken him past the second round except Pulyaev. It is the most impressive short sample on the card and it is also, unavoidably, a short sample — five fights and 30 minutes of total Octagon time.

Roman Kopylov

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Ateba Gautier

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Two donuts that are almost the same shape and both close exactly — Kopylov 12 knockouts and 3 decisions in 15 wins, Gautier 9 and 2 in 11. Neither man has a single submission in his professional career, which is genuinely unusual for a pair of middleweights and simplifies the modelling enormously. The round columns are where they part. Seven of Gautier's nine finishes landed in Round 1; only one of Kopylov's twelve did, with six arriving in the second and five in the third. Their finishing windows barely overlap, which is why the clock below reads as cleanly as it does.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Roman	Ateba
Andrey Pulyaev (also on this card)	—never faced	W· Unanimous decision (UFC 324, Jan 2026)
Pulyaev fights Damian Pinas two bouts later on the same card; Gautier is the only man here who has beaten him
Chris Curtis and Paulo Costa (level proxies)	W· KO/TKO R3 over Curtis; L · decision to Costa	—has not faced a ranked middleweight
The experience gap in one line: Kopylov has shared a cage with the division's top fifteen and Gautier has not
Marco Tulio (level proxy)	W· Unanimous decision (May 2026)	—never faced
Tulio was also knocked out by Christian Leroy Duncan a week earlier on the October calendar — a useful cross-card reference point

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

Roman

Ateba

Two points, and they come entirely from the damage column. Kopylov actually lands more (4.54 to 4.32) and lands more accurately (50% to 44%); Gautier absorbs 2.60 significant strikes per minute against Kopylov's 5.08, which is the widest damage-differential gap on this card. Over three rounds that difference is roughly forty-five strikes of accumulated punishment, and it is the reason a less accurate striker leads the column.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

Roman

Ateba

A near-wash between two men who barely grapple. Kopylov attempts 1.12 takedowns per fifteen minutes and Gautier 0.41; neither has a submission in his entire career, and both defend at elite rates — 89% and 94%. This fight will be decided standing because nothing else is on either sheet.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0

Roman

0.0

Ateba

A dead heat, which is the honest read on skill. Every point of separation in this bout comes from age, frame and damage tolerance rather than from technique.

Cardio

Fight time · pace curve · rounds contested

Roman

Atebasmall sample

Kopylov's column and the only one that clearly is. He averages 12:16 per UFC fight against Gautier's 6:06, holds 21.6-19.5-22.0 output across three rounds, and has contested eleven Octagon bouts to five. Gautier's output falls every round — 15.3, 15.0, 11.0 — and his third-round row rests on a single round of data. He has been to a third round once in five UFC fights.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0

Roman

0.0

Ateba

The composites favour Kopylov by six points and the model favours Gautier by sixteen. That inversion is deliberate: the gauges cannot see six inches of reach, ten years, or a 1.00 first-round knockdown average, and those three things decide this fight before the cardio column gets to matter.

Metric	Roman	Ateba
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	12:16 (UFC)	6:06 (UFC)
Pace Tier	4.54 SLpM across 29 scored rounds	4.32 SLpM across 6 scored roundssmall sample
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	22.0 / 21.6 — flat	11.0 / 15.3 — down 28%small sample
Damage Absorbed	5.08 per minute	2.60 per minute
R1 Knockdown Avg	0.09	1.00 — the highest figure on the card

Archetype Base Rate

Counter Kickboxer 42%58% Long-Range Knockout Artist

No archetype base-rate row exists for this pairing · No historical archetype rate is applied. The 58/42 is built on three measured things: six inches of reach and four of height in a fight with no grappling in it, a damage-absorbed gap of 5.08 to 2.60, and a first-round knockdown average of 1.00 across four scored rounds. It is capped by Gautier's total Octagon time of roughly thirty minutes, an output curve that falls 28% by the third round, and a veteran who has never been stopped by strikes in the UFC.

Roman KopylovAteba Gautier

Middleweight

· 44 fighters

Stat	Roman	Roman rank	Div avg	Ateba rank	Ateba
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	4.54	—	~3.68	—	4.32
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	50%	—	~48%	—	44%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	53%	—	~55%	—	54%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	5.08	—	~3.42	—	2.60
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.12	—	~1.64	—	0.41
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	89%	—	~62%	—	94%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.00 (0 career subs)	—	~0.51	—	0.00 (0 career subs)
Reach	75"	—	~76"	—	81"
Career Finishes	12 of 15 (80%)	—	—	—	9 of 11 (82%)
UFC Bouts	11	—	—	—	5
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	12:16	—	—	—	6:06

Statistical Verdict
Kopylov is at or near the divisional baseline on output, accuracy and takedown volume, and a full 1.66 strikes per minute worse than it on damage absorbed — 5.08 against ~3.42. Gautier is below baseline on accuracy at 44% and comfortably the best fighter in this bout at not getting hit. The rows that decide the fight are the two at the bottom and the one about reach: 81 inches against 75, eleven Octagon bouts against five, and 12:16 of average fight time against 6:06. One man owns the fight's geometry and the other owns its clock.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R2, R3: single-fight sample for Ateba Gautier

Control Time per Round (sec)

Roman Kopylov

Remarkably stable across three rounds — 21.6, 19.5 and 22.0 significant strikes landed — with accuracy above 51% in the first two and 92-95% of his offence landing at distance in every frame.
His knockdown average climbs every round: 0.09, 0.27, 0.29. Six of his twelve career knockouts came in Round 2 and five in Round 3, which is an unusual finishing curve and the opposite of his opponent's.
Control time is 15, 17 and 42 seconds — negligible until the third. He does not clinch and he does not wrestle; 2.5%, 1.9% and 4.5% of his offence touches the ground.

Ateba Gautier

The number that defines the fight: a knockdown average of 1.00 across four scored first rounds. Nobody else on this card is within half of it.
Output falls as fights go on — 15.3, 15.0, 11.0 — and accuracy falls with it, 43.3% to 36.6% to 37.9%. He is a finisher whose value decays with every minute that passes.
His Round-2 and Round-3 rows rest on one scored round each. Read them as directional, not as measurement — he has reached a third round once in five UFC fights.
85.2% of his Round-1 offence goes to the head and just 1.6% to the legs. There is no body-and-legs investment strategy here; he is hunting the finish from the first exchange.

Critical Insight
Two finishing curves pointing in opposite directions, which makes this one of the cleanest clocks on the card. Gautier is at his most dangerous immediately — a 1.00 knockdown average in Round 1 — and gets measurably less dangerous every five minutes, with output down 28% and accuracy down six points by the third. Kopylov is the reverse: his knockdown average triples from 0.09 to 0.29 and his output never moves. Roughly two-thirds of Gautier's win equity resolves in the opening round; almost all of Kopylov's arrives after it.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

RomanAteba

94%Distance87%

3%Clinch11%

3%Ground2%

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceAteba owns it

Six inches of reach, 2.60 strikes absorbed per minute against 5.08, and a 1.00 first-round knockdown average

Pocket / ExchangesAteba owns it

Nine knockouts to twelve, but Gautier is ten years younger and has never been stopped while Kopylov absorbs 5.08 a minute

ClinchRoman owns it

Barely contested — 5% and 13% of Round-1 offence. Kopylov's sambo base makes it his least-bad escape from range

GroundRoman owns it

Zero career submissions between them and takedown defence of 89% and 94%. This phase effectively does not exist

Path to Victory

Roman Kopylov

Survive five minutes. His knockdown average triples after them and his opponent's output falls 28%.

Why they win

Twenty-nine scored rounds to six

Eleven Octagon bouts against five, and 12:16 of average fight time against 6:06. Every deep-water column is his.

A rising knockdown curve

0.09, 0.27, 0.29 across the three rounds — he gets more dangerous as the fight ages, against a man who gets less so.

Never stopped by strikes in the UFC

His only stoppage loss is a submission to Anthony Hernandez in 2024. Against a pure knockout artist, that matters more than any rate.

Higher volume and better accuracy

4.54 significant strikes per minute at 50% against 4.32 at 44%. On raw striking skill he leads.

Flat output across fifteen minutes

21.6, 19.5, 22.0 landed. Nothing about his profile decays, which is exactly what a 4,300-foot third round asks for.

Ranked-opposition experience

He has shared a cage with Paulo Costa, Gregory Rodrigues and Chris Curtis. Gautier has not faced a ranked middleweight.

The gameplan

1
Get through the first five minutes
Nothing else on this list matters. A 1.00 knockdown average is the highest first-round threat on the card and his own is 0.09.
2
Attack the body and the legs
85.2% of Gautier's Round-1 offence goes to the head and only 1.6% to the legs — he is not investing downstairs and he should be made to.
3
Close behind the jab, not the overhand
Six inches of reach punishes the wide entry. The jab is the only shot that buys distance without buying a counter.
4
Use the clinch he does not use
Gautier puts 13% of his Round-1 offence in the clinch and Kopylov comes from a sambo base. It is the one phase where the reach gap disappears.
5
Bank the second round
His knockdown average triples there and his accuracy peaks at 52.2%. It is the frame where the fight most plausibly turns.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If he is dropped early, the answer is to survive to the horn rather than fire back. Gautier has almost no evidence past minute ten and every round Kopylov steals is a round the data says he wins.

Path to Victory

Ateba Gautier

Land inside the first round. One knockdown per round is not a statistic anyone survives repeatedly.

Why they win

Six inches of reach and four of height

81 inches at 6'4" in a fight with no grappling in it. There is nowhere for Kopylov to go except through it.

A 1.00 first-round knockdown average

The single most extreme number in this analysis set, aimed at a man who absorbs 5.08 significant strikes per minute.

Half the damage taken

2.60 absorbed per minute against 5.08 — over fifteen minutes, roughly forty-five fewer strikes eaten.

Ten years younger

24 against 34, with five professional losses fewer and no accumulated mileage.

Unbeaten in the UFC

Five for five, four by knockout, with only Andrey Pulyaev taking him past the second round.

94% takedown defence

The highest figure in the bout, which removes the one escape route a struggling striker would normally reach for.

The gameplan

1
Fight at the end of 81 inches
The jab and the teep. Every exchange Kopylov has to travel six inches for is one he pays for at 5.08 strikes absorbed a minute.
2
Look for the finish immediately
His knockdown average is 1.00 in the first round and falls after it. There is no argument for pacing against a man whose danger rises.
3
Do not chase the second round
If the finish is not there by 5:00, switch to range management — his decision over Andrey Pulyaev proves he can win fifteen minutes without it.
4
Keep the takedown defence honest
94% is the best figure in the bout, and Kopylov's only route out of a losing striking match is a shot he almost never takes.
5
Invest downstairs at least once
1.6% of his Round-1 offence goes to the legs. Against a 34-year-old at 4,300 feet, a single low-kick investment changes the third round.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If Round 2 arrives with Kopylov unhurt and his knockdown average climbing, the plan is the outside jab and the clock — not a firefight with a man who has twelve knockouts.

Danger Zone

How Roman Kopylov loses

He walks into the shot that has dropped four opponents in four scored first rounds, and the fight is over before his own knockdown curve gets going.
He cannot close six inches, absorbs 5.08 a minute doing it, and loses a wide decision to a man who lands less than he does.
He commits to a takedown he has never needed, against 94% takedown defence, and gives away the round for nothing.

Danger Zone

How Ateba Gautier loses

The opening round passes without a knockdown, and he meets a veteran whose danger triples while his own output falls 28%.
He gets counted into the third round for only the second time in his UFC career, at 4,300 feet, against a man averaging 12:16 a fight.
Kopylov's sambo base turns the clinch into a fifteen-minute problem Gautier has 20% of his offence in and no answer for.

The structural gap

Six Inches and Ten Years

Ateba Gautier is 6'4" with an 81-inch reach and 24 years old; Roman Kopylov is 6'0" with 75 inches and 34. In a fight where neither man grapples — zero career submissions between them and 89% and 94% takedown defence — the entire contest happens at the range one of them owns by six inches.

+6"

reach advantage to Gautier

The column that decides it

Half the Damage

Kopylov absorbs 5.08 significant strikes per minute — well above the ~3.42 middleweight baseline and the worst number on either sheet. Gautier absorbs 2.60. Over fifteen minutes that is roughly forty-five extra strikes taken by the man who is also ten years older, and it is why a less accurate striker leads the striking gauge.

5.08 v 2.60

significant strikes absorbed per minute

The number nobody else has

A Knockdown Average of 1.00

Across four scored first rounds, Ateba Gautier averages one knockdown per round. No other fighter on this card is close. Three of his five UFC wins ended in the opening round and his average fight time is 6:06 — the shortest of anyone in Salt Lake City.

1.00

Gautier knockdowns per Round 1

Where the 42% lives

The Prospect Has Never Been Deep

Gautier's output falls every round — 15.3, 15.0, 11.0 — and his second and third-round rows each rest on a single round of data. He has reached a third round once in five UFC fights. Kopylov holds 21.6, 19.5 and 22.0 across twenty-nine scored rounds and has been to eleven Octagon bouts. If the first five minutes pass, the sample gap starts paying.

The simplest read on the card

Neither Man Has Ever Submitted Anyone

Twenty-six professional wins between them and zero submissions. Kopylov: twelve knockouts, three decisions. Gautier: nine knockouts, two decisions. Both defend the takedown at 89% or better and neither attempts one. This is a kickboxing match with four-ounce gloves, and it should be modelled as one.

The Five-Round Clock

Roman Kopylov danger windowAteba Gautier danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Gautier's kill zone

A knockdown average of 1.00 across four scored rounds, three UFC wins ending here, and 82% of his offence landing at distance from 81 inches. Kopylov is at his most accurate in the opening five minutes (51.7%) but his knockdown average is 0.09 — he does not threaten early.

Critical Insight
The cleanest clock on the card, because the two finishing curves run in opposite directions and barely overlap. Gautier's first round carries a knockdown average of one per round and three of his five UFC wins ended in it; after that his output falls 28% and his accuracy six points. Kopylov's knockdown average triples from 0.09 to 0.29 across the same fifteen minutes while his output does not move at all. Roughly two-thirds of the underdog's equity sits after minute five, and roughly two-thirds of the favourite's sits before it.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Twenty-six professional wins between them and zero submissions: this is a kickboxing match, and Ateba Gautier owns it by six inches of reach and four of height.

Gautier averages 1.00 knockdowns per scored first round — the highest figure on the card — against a man absorbing 5.08 significant strikes per minute, the worst.

Model: Gautier 58% / Kopylov 42%, conviction 5/10 — capped because Gautier's second and third-round data rest on one round each and his output falls 28% by the third.

100 Simulated Fights

Gautier KO/TKO — 36%Kopylov KO/TKO — 23%Gautier Decision — 22%Kopylov Decision — 19%Gautier Submission — 0%Kopylov Submission — 0%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Roman Kopylov gold · Ateba Gautier orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Six inches of reach in a striking-only fight

81 inches against 75, with zero career submissions between the two men and takedown defence of 89% and 94%. Range is not a factor here, it is the whole contest.

The first-round knockdown average

Gautier averages 1.00 knockdowns per scored first round — the highest figure anywhere on this card — against an opponent absorbing 5.08 significant strikes per minute.

Damage tolerance

2.60 absorbed per minute against 5.08. Over fifteen minutes that is roughly forty-five extra strikes taken by the older man.

The opposite finishing curves

Gautier's output and accuracy both fall every round; Kopylov's knockdown average triples. Their danger windows barely overlap.

Sample asymmetry

Twenty-nine scored rounds against six, eleven UFC bouts against five, 12:16 of average fight time against 6:06. Every uncertainty in this projection is on the favourite's side.

Ranked-level experience

Kopylov has fought Paulo Costa, Gregory Rodrigues and Chris Curtis. Gautier has beaten five prospects. The step up is real and it is unmeasured.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

Gautier Detonates Early

A 1.00 first-round knockdown average meets a man who absorbs 5.08 significant strikes a minute, from six inches further away. Three of Gautier's five UFC wins ended inside the opening round and his average fight is 6:06. This is the single most likely outcome on the page.

Scripted outcomes for Roman Kopylov vs Ateba Gautier — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Roman Kopylov win probability

23%

19%

KO/TKODECSUB

Twelve career knockouts, all fifteen of his wins by strike or scorecard, and a knockdown average that rises every round to 0.29 in the third. Most of this bucket is a late stoppage against a prospect who has never been deep.
His floor and his most repeatable path — 12:16 of average fight time, twenty-nine scored rounds, and flat output across all three. It requires him to still be upright at 5:00.
Zero. He has never recorded a submission in fifteen professional wins and attempts 0.00 per fifteen minutes. The bucket is empty because the skill is absent, not because the model is being polite.

Ateba Gautier win probability

36%

22%

KO/TKODECSUB

The largest bucket on the page by a distance. Nine career knockouts, a 1.00 first-round knockdown average, six inches of reach, and an opponent absorbing 5.08 significant strikes per minute. Heavily front-loaded into the opening round.
The Pulyaev script: control the range for fifteen minutes, win on damage differential rather than volume, never look for the finish. His only UFC decision, and a genuinely live second path.
Zero career submissions and 0.00 attempts per fifteen minutes, against 89% takedown defence. There is no version of this fight that ends on the mat.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Ateba

Roman

Ateba

29-28 Gautier

Kopylov takes the second on counters; Gautier takes the outside rounds on reach and damage

The most likely card in a fight that reaches them

30-27 Gautier

Six inches of reach controls all fifteen minutes

His Pulyaev template, repeated

29-28 Kopylov

The veteran survives the first and out-lands a fading prospect

Requires Gautier to be past minute ten, where he has almost no evidence

Moneyline

Roman Kopylov

Not posted

Ateba Gautier

Not posted

No book has published a line for this bout at the time of writing. Converting our own probabilities gives fair prices of Ateba Gautier -138 from 58% and Roman Kopylov +138 from 42% — model outputs, not quotes. Live prices appear in the hero above once a market opens.

Props: model vs market

Prop	Odds	Implied %	Model %	Fair	Edge	Verdict

Best Value
Gautier by knockout at 36% is the largest bucket on the page and the honest expression of the thesis — a 1.00 first-round knockdown average against 5.08 strikes absorbed per minute. The contrarian ticket is Kopylov inside the distance at 23%: his knockdown average triples by the third round while Gautier's output falls 28%, and the market will not price that curve. The fight going the distance sits at 41% combined, which is low for two men with 89% and 94% takedown defence — a reflection of how much finishing power is in the cage.

Conviction

5/10

A clear lean on structure with a large and specific caveat. Six inches of reach, ten years, half the damage absorbed and a 1.00 first-round knockdown average are as clean a set of advantages as this card offers, and in a fight with no grappling at all they have nowhere to hide. The cap is that almost everything supporting them is a five-fight, thirty-minute sample: Gautier's output falls 28% by the third round, two of his three round rows rest on one round each, and he has never faced a ranked middleweight. Kopylov has twenty-nine scored rounds, a knockdown average that triples by the third, and has never been stopped by strikes in the Octagon. Lean: Ateba Gautier.

What backs the lean

Six inches of reach and four inches of height, in a fight with zero grappling on either sheet.
A first-round knockdown average of 1.00 across four scored rounds — the highest figure on this card.
2.60 significant strikes absorbed per minute against Kopylov's 5.08, the worst number in the bout.
Ten years younger, unbeaten in the UFC at 5-0 with four knockouts.
94% takedown defence, which removes the veteran's only escape from a losing striking match.
Three of his five Octagon wins ended in the opening round; his average fight time is 6:06.

What limits it

Kopylov's knockdown average triples across the fight — 0.09, 0.27, 0.29 — while Gautier's output falls 28%.
Twenty-nine scored rounds of data against six, and eleven UFC bouts against five.
Kopylov lands more (4.54 to 4.32) and more accurately (50% to 44%).
Gautier has reached a third round once in five UFC fights, at a venue 4,300 feet above sea level.
Kopylov has never been stopped by strikes in the Octagon and has fought Costa, Rodrigues and Curtis.
Two of Gautier's three round-by-round rows rest on a single scored round.

Final Assessment

In roughly fifty-eight of one hundred simulations Ateba Gautier wins, and in thirty-six of those he ends it by strike — most often in the opening round, where his knockdown average across four scored rounds is a full 1.00 and where three of his five Octagon wins have already finished. The mechanism is not subtle: six inches of reach and four of height, in a fight with zero submissions and 89%-plus takedown defence on both sides, aimed at a 34-year-old who absorbs 5.08 significant strikes per minute.

In the other forty-two, Roman Kopylov survives the first five minutes and the fight inverts. His knockdown average triples from 0.09 to 0.29 across the three rounds while Gautier's output falls from 15.3 to 11.0 and his accuracy from 43.3% to 37.9%. Twenty-three of those are late knockouts and nineteen are decisions built on twenty-nine scored rounds of flat, disciplined output against a prospect who has been past minute ten once.

This is a fight about whether a five-fight sample survives contact with a ranked opponent. Every structural number favours the 24-year-old and every column measured in minutes, rounds and mileage favours the 34-year-old. On October 3 in Salt Lake City, at 4,300 feet — Gautier 58% / Kopylov 42%, conviction 5/10, with two-thirds of the underdog's equity sitting after the first horn.

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