Quick Answer
Our ML ensemble favors Baisangur Susurkaev at 72% over Eric McConico (28%) at UFC 322. Estimated fair odds: Baisangur Susurkaev -257, Eric McConico +257.
Model accuracy: 67.6% on settled UFC fights. Probabilities derived from composite striking + grappling scores.
Baisangur Susurkaev vs Eric McConico
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC 322
Saturday, November 15, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image to access complete UFC dossiers including striking and grappling metrics, fight history, and round-by-round advanced analytics.
Baisangur Susurkaev
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Eric McConico
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Baisangur Susurkaev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-16 | Eric Nolan | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 2:01) |
| 2025-08-12 | Murtaza Talha Ali | W | KO - Front Kick to the Body (R1, 3:04) |
| 2025-02-21 | Irakli Kuchukhidze | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 2:12) |
| 2024-11-22 | Shane Sobnosky | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-03-31 | Artem Kuzmin | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:22) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Eric McConico
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-09 | Cody Brundage | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-22 | Nursulton Ruziboev | L | TKO - Punches (R2, 0:33) |
| 2024-07-26 | Jarome Hatch | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 3:23) |
| 2024-02-02 | Tyler Ray | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-12 | Maki Pitolo | W | TKO - Head Kick and Punches (R3, 2:35) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Averaging striking and grappling composites to capture who brings the most complete toolkit in positional battles.
💪 Cardio Score
Pace, average duration, and finishing consistency rolled together to show sustainable output over three rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Quick snapshot of combined skills plus conditioning to highlight who projects as the more reliable minute-winner.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Considers SLpM, accuracy, defense, and damage control—showing who lands cleaner and more often across exchanges.
🤼 Grappling Composite
TD volume, accuracy, defense, and submissions per 15 combine to outline ground-control upside or vulnerability.
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
Baisangur Susurkaev Key Edges
Younger by 11 years and longer in a 30-ft cage; better athlete dictates engagements and resets safely — advantage Susurkaev. (ufcstats.com)
4.56 vs 1.51 SLpM and 58% vs 36% accuracy = more scoring, damage accrual, and snowballing rounds for Susurkaev. (ufcstats.com)
Real back-take/sub threat; McConico has virtually no TD offense and 0.0 Sub/15. Sus controls clinch/ground exchanges. (ufcstats.com)
Recent R2 TKO loss at MW and middling TD defense match poorly against Sus’s body attacks and top pressure. (Tapology)
Unfavorable Scenarios (Susurkaev)
Overcommitting into straight left counters reduces initiative and round-winning minutes.
If the tempo collapses into single shots in space, optics can favor McConico.
Likely Gameplan — Baisangur Susurkaev
Calf/body kicks, step-in right hands to clinch; chain single-to-double on fence, mat returns → ride time → back-expose.
Ground-and-pound to back take → RNC; if overreact to level changes, recycle body kicks (DWCS KO precedent).
Eric McConico Considerations
Intercept step-in rights with straight lefts/elbows; slow the tempo into a split-decision type fight (e.g., vs Brundage). (Tapology)
Must raise sprawl/underhook re-pummeling well above career 57% to keep kickboxing range; otherwise minutes bleed away. (ufcstats.com)
Unfavorable Scenarios (McConico)
Repeated stand-ups, mat returns, and back-exposes bleed rounds and create finishing threat.
Body attacks provoke level changes; back takes often follow off scrambles.
Likely Gameplan — Eric McConico
Outside-foot battle, jab/left to chest to disrupt entries; punish level changes with uppercut/knee; circle off fence.
Force a low-event kickboxing match to chase minutes and judges’ optics.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Simulation-weighted model using volume/accuracy, TD offense/defense, and physicals
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🎯Stylistic Edges
Range/physicals, output, and efficiency heavily favor Susurkaev, who also brings real takedown and submission threats. The 30-ft cage lets him pressure safely and reset when needed.
🧠Key Deciders
Initiative layers (jab/lead-leg kicks + level-change threat) to pin McConico on fence; McConico’s best response is intercepting entries and depressing pace. Wrestle-defense sustainability is pivotal.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Susurkaev wins most via sustained pressure: KO/TKO 46%, Submission 20%, Decision 16%. McConico’s share comes through counter striking and optics: KO/TKO 8%, Submission 3%, Decision 7%.
🏁Final View
Clear favorite status for Susurkaev (82–18). Risks that temper conviction: limited long UFC minutes and potential southpaw counters if pace collapses.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment using live market lines
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 82% | Market: N/A
GOOD VALUE (Projection)
Model: 46%
SLIGHT VALUE (Projection)
Model: 62%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution — Baisangur Susurkaev
Part of sustained control path
Body attacks + pressure striking
Back takes off fence cycles → RNC
💥Outcome Distribution — Eric McConico
Low-event optics path
Intercepting counters on entries
Low historical submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity — Eric McConico
- • Intercept step-ins with straight lefts/elbows
- • Depress pace into low-event exchanges in space
- • Circle off fence, avoid clinch and re-mat returns
- • Jab/left to chest to disrupt level changes
🎯Progressive Dominance — Baisangur Susurkaev
- • Chain single → double on fence, ride time accrual
- • Body-kick attrition into level-change reactions
- • Back takes off scrambles; RNC threat persists
- • Volume/accuracy edge compounds optics and damage
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High conviction from multi-axis advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant edges in SLpM and accuracy (4.56 vs 1.51; 58% vs 36%)
- • Real TD offense (2.98/15) and submission threat (1.5/15)
- • Age/reach advantages; athleticism in 30-ft cage
- • Pressure layers create fence cycles and ride time
- • Multiple finishing paths (46% KO/TKO, 20% SUB)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Southpaw counters on entries if timing is off
- • Low-event pacing could blunt optics
- • Limited long UFC minutes; cardio sample still shallow
🏁Executive Summary
Baisangur Susurkaev holds clear, independent advantages across volume, efficiency, and grappling pressure against Eric McConico. Our model assigns 82% vs 18% win probabilities with aligned moneyline pricing around −456 / +456.
Win-method splits: Susurkaev — Decision 16% • KO/TKO 46% • Submission 20%; McConico — Decision 7% • KO/TKO 8% • Submission 3%. Totals: Under 2.5 rounds 62% (−163) / Over 38% (+163); Fight goes to decision 23% (+335).
Only risks cooling conviction: potential southpaw counters if entries get predictable and the small sample of long UFC minutes. Overall, expectation is sustained initiative from Susurkaev with layered offense creating either a TKO or submission path, while McConico’s clearest route is depressing pace and landing clean intercepts.
Also on this card
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