Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu vs Mehemmedeli Osmanli: analysis & prediction

MAIN CARD · BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu — Bantamweight fighter

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

10W3L
Submission Grappler
VS
Mehemmedeli Osmanli — Bantamweight fighter

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

“Ineffable”
12W1L
Submission Grappler

Mirrored submission threats, unequal damage histories

BantamweightMeta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United StatesSeptember 26, 202625ft Octagon (Small Cage)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Both Akylbek Uulu and Osmanli have submission-heavy records, so the decisive moment may be who secures position after the initial scramble. Osmanli's submission loss makes defensive transitions worth watching, but one result does not prove a recurring weakness or guarantee the same opening here.

Paths that change the fight

  • Ilimbek Akylbek UuluTurn the submission mirror into a back-control fight. Six career submissions and consecutive rear-naked chokes attack the method behind Osmanli's only loss.
  • Mehemmedeli OsmanliUse the broader recent portfolio. Make Akylbek Uulu defend strikes before grappling, then build toward the Round-2 window that produced three supplied finishes.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 3/10
  • Both men are making their UFC debut.
  • No supplied UFC rates, RxR, ranks, complete physical attributes or market odds.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
45%
Fair odds
+122
Reference quote
+231 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.22

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
55%
Fair odds
-122
Reference quote
-279 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.82
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Both fighters are making their UFC debut. UFC rates, round-by-round rows, divisional ranks and market odds are not fabricated. Age and height come from ESPN fighter profiles (Akylbek Uulu id 5345639, Osmanli id 5345640); reach and leg reach are unpublished. Round-by-round measurements are unavailable, and every composite is flagged as a scouting estimate.

Model methodology
01

The Frame

A dual UFC debut with every unknown left visible

The Analyst's Take

This is a submission mirror with one meaningful form edge. Akylbek Uulu has six submission wins in ten victories; Osmanli has eight in twelve. The separation is that Akylbek Uulu owns zero knockout wins and all three of his losses came by KO/TKO, while Osmanli is 12-1 and won all five fights in the supplied recent window.

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu
Attribute
Mehemmedeli Osmanli
23
Age
22
5'7"
Height
+2" Osmanli5'9"
Not published
Reach
Not published
Not supplied
Leg Reach
Not supplied
Not supplied
Stance
Not supplied
VFS Academy
Team
Not published
Sep 26, 2026 (this fight)
Octagon Debut
Sep 26, 2026 (this fight)
Submission grappler — 6 submission wins
Fighting Style
Submission grappler — 8 submission wins
Dec 6, 2025 — win
Last Supplied Fight
Nov 15, 2025 — win

Osmanli owns a modest two-inch height edge at 5-foot-9 against 5-foot-7, with both men in their early twenties. Reach is unpublished for either debutant, so the frame comparison stops at height. Akylbek Uulu trains at VFS Academy; Osmanli's camp is not listed on ESPN.

Venue Factor
The smaller Meta APEX cage can compress space and create more clinches and scrambles, which is relevant to two submission-heavy records. It is context rather than a measured edge: no takedown, control-time or position data exists for either debutant.
02

The Fighters

Submission-led careers, recent form, and unequal loss profiles

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu in competition

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

Pro Record
10-3-0
UFC Record
0-0 — Octagon debut
Streak
2 wins after 2 consecutive TKO losses
Finish Rate
60% (6 of 10 wins) — all by submission
Avg Fight Time
Not available — no UFC bouts
Chin · High-risk history — all 3 losses by KO/TKOSOS · Regional — ONE Friday Fights, EFC Global, AFPEditorial label — submission grappler

Akylbek Uulu's record is polarized. All ten wins come by submission or decision, with zero knockout wins, while all three defeats came by KO/TKO. His supplied recent history shows the recovery clearly: two 2024 stoppage losses followed by two rear-naked-choke wins, the latest in Round 4 over Mo Miller. That comeback restores his primary path without erasing the damage mechanism behind every loss.

Mehemmedeli Osmanli in competition

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

Pro Record
12-1-0
UFC Record
0-0 — Octagon debut
Streak
5 wins in the supplied recent window
Finish Rate
83% (10 of 12 wins) — 8 submissions, 2 KO/TKO
Avg Fight Time
Not available — no UFC bouts
Chin · No KO/TKO losses in the supplied career splitSOS · Regional — UAE Warriors, New Generation FightingEditorial label — submission grappler

Osmanli brings the cleaner record and steadier supplied form. He is 12-1 and 5-0 across the listed recent fights, with three Round-2 finishes and two unanimous decisions. Eight of twelve wins are submissions. The caveat is perfectly aligned with this matchup: his only professional defeat came by submission, so Akylbek Uulu's best weapon attacks the one method that has already beaten him.

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Mehemmedeli Osmanli
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulusignature weapons

Rear-Naked ChokeTwo documented in the supplied recent window: Mo Miller in R4 and Ozodbek Bobokulov in R1
×2
Career Submissions60% of ten wins; techniques for the other four are not supplied
×6
Decision Route40% of ten wins
×4

Mehemmedeli Osmanlisignature weapons

Career Submissions67% of twelve wins
×8
Guillotine ChokeBakhtovar Yunusov, R2 1:57 at UAE Warriors 65 — latest supplied fight
×1
KO/TKOIncludes Omar Ashour by punches in R2; no broader power claim is made
×2

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

W
Mo Miller
Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: prospect

R4 (2:14)
AFP 104 — Dec 6, 2025
W
Ozodbek Bobokulov
Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (1:02)
EFC Global 50 — Oct 26, 2024
L
Dzhokhar Eskiev
TKO — Left hook to ground-and-pound

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (0:15)
ONE Friday Fights 74 — Aug 9, 2024
L
Khalim Nazruloev
TKO — Ground-and-pound

Opponent context: prospect

R2 (1:59)
ONE Friday Fights 47 — Jan 12, 2024
W
Gadzhimurad Gasanguseynov
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3
ONE Friday Fights 31 — Sep 1, 2023
Pattern

Two rear-naked-choke wins followed two knockout losses. The rebound matters, but the mechanism remains the central risk: one defeat ended after a left hook in fifteen seconds and the other by ground-and-pound in Round 2. His latest Round-4 submission supports duration without supplying any UFC pace data.

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

W
Bakhtovar Yunusov
Submission — Guillotine choke

Opponent context: prospect

R2 (1:57)
UAE Warriors 65 — Nov 15, 2025
W
Ali Yousefi
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3
New Generation Fighting 5 — Sep 13, 2025
W
Faeez Jacobs
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3
UAE Warriors 62 — Jul 24, 2025
W
Shamil Boraev
Submission — technique not supplied

Opponent context: prospect

R2 (3:28)
UAE Warriors 54 — Sep 28, 2024
W
Omar Ashour
TKO — Punches

Opponent context: prospect

R2 (2:36)
New Generation Fighting 4 — Jun 6, 2024
Pattern

Five supplied fights, five wins, three Round-2 finishes and two decisions. Osmanli has recently shown submission, striking and scorecard routes. Three UAE Warriors appearances provide regional continuity, but regional success is not treated as UFC proof.

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
The method donuts use complete career win counts; Osmanli's displayed 17/16/67 split is normalized to 100 after the source's whole-number rounding produces 101. The round bars cover only the five supplied recent fights on each side, not complete career timing. Submission production is mirrored, but vulnerability is not: Akylbek Uulu has never lost by submission, while Osmanli's only loss came that way.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorIlimbekMehemmedeli
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)Regional — ONE Friday Fights, EFC Global, AFP — Supplied history spans three regional promotions; no UFC-level rate or common-opponent comparison is availableRegional — UAE Warriors, New Generation Fighting — Three of five supplied recent fights came in UAE Warriors; no UFC-level rate or common-opponent comparison is available
UFC sample0-0 — Octagon debut0-0 — Octagon debut
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 0 veteran tier0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window tier points tied in the last-five sample — compare SOS notes and methods, not volume alone.
Last three opponentsMo Miller, Ozodbek Bobokulov, Dzhokhar EskievBakhtovar Yunusov, Ali Yousefi, Faeez Jacobs
  • No shared opponent supplied: No transitive comparison is used. The supplied dossiers contain separate regional paths.
03

The Numbers

Editorial estimates, career facts, and intentionally blank UFC data

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Editorial estimate — no UFC striking rates exist

0
Ilimbekfew UFC fights
0
Mehemmedelifew UFC fights

The relative edge follows the method ledger only: Akylbek Uulu has zero KO wins and three KO losses; Osmanli has two KO wins and no KO losses. It is not an output or accuracy claim.

Grappling

Editorial estimate — career submissions, submission losses and recent chokes

0
Ilimbekfew UFC fights
0
Mehemmedelifew UFC fights

Six submission wins against eight. Osmanli's four-point edge is capped because his only career loss came by submission and Akylbek Uulu has never lost that way.

Technical

(Striking estimate + Grappling estimate) / 2

0
Ilimbekfew UFC fights
0
Mehemmedelifew UFC fights

The seven-point spread reflects Osmanli's broader method portfolio and cleaner loss ledger, not measured UFC technique.

Cardio

Editorial estimate — decisions and documented finish timing only

0
Ilimbekfew UFC fights
0
Mehemmedelifew UFC fights

Akylbek Uulu owns four decision wins and a recent Round-4 submission; Osmanli owns two decisions, both in the supplied 2025 history. No pace data exists.

Overall

(Technical estimate + Cardio estimate) / 2

0
Ilimbekfew UFC fights
0.0
Mehemmedelifew UFC fights

A modest estimated gap supports a modest 55-45 editorial lean and no stronger conclusion.

MetricIlimbekMehemmedeli
Avg Fight TimeN/A — no UFC boutsfew UFC fightsN/A — no UFC boutsfew UFC fights
Pace TierN/A — no rate linefew UFC fightsN/A — no rate linefew UFC fights
Supplied Last Five3-25-0
Documented R2 Finishes0 wins; 1 TKO loss3 wins
Championship Rounds1 supplied R4 submissionNot supplied

Archetype Base Rate

Submission Grappler 50%50% Submission Grappler

No archetype base-rate sample · No fight records archetype or historical matchup rate is applied. The 55-45 lean is editorial and comes from Osmanli's record, recent form and broader method portfolio, balanced against his lone submission loss.

Ilimbek Akylbek UuluMehemmedeli Osmanli

Bantamweight — no ranking sample

No comparable division benchmark is published for this sample. These values describe each fighter; no division rank is assigned.

StatIlimbekMehemmedeli
SLpMN/AN/A
Str AccN/AN/A
Str DefN/AN/A
TD/15N/AN/A
TD AccN/AN/A
TD DefN/AN/A
Sub/15N/AN/A
Pro Record10-3-012-1-0
KO/TKO Wins02
Submission Wins6 (60%)8 (67%)
Decision Wins4 (40%)2 (17%)
KO/TKO Losses3 (all losses)0
Submission Losses01 (only loss)
Supplied Last FiveW-W-L-L-WW-W-W-W-W
Statistical Verdict
The UFC-rate rows are empty on purpose. The reliable career columns favor Osmanli in record, finish rate, recent form and knockout durability. Akylbek Uulu's counter is narrower but live: more decision wins, no submission losses, and a six-submission offense aimed at the method behind Osmanli's only defeat.

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

  • No UFC round-by-round rows exist. Every output, accuracy, control and knockdown value remains null rather than estimated.
  • The supplied timing evidence is limited to recent results: an R1 rear-naked choke, an R4 rear-naked choke, an R1 TKO loss and an R2 TKO loss.
  • Four career decision wins and the recent R4 submission support duration only; they do not supply a pace curve.

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

  • No UFC round-by-round rows exist. Osmanli's side of every measured round chart is intentionally blank.
  • Three of five supplied recent wins ended in Round 2: guillotine, another submission, and TKO by punches.
  • Two unanimous decisions in 2025 support a three-round route without revealing round-by-round scoring or output.
Critical Insight
The only defensible timing lean is Round 2 toward Osmanli. Three supplied recent wins ended there, while one of Akylbek Uulu's supplied stoppage losses also came there. Nothing more granular is inferred.
04

The Story of the Fight

A submission mirror separated by form and damage history

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceMehemmedeli owns it

Only a slight editorial lean: Osmanli has 2 KO wins and 0 KO losses; Akylbek Uulu has 0 KO wins and 3 KO losses. No striking rates exist.

Pocket / ExchangesMehemmedeli owns it

Akylbek Uulu's entire loss profile is KO/TKO, but Osmanli has only two knockout wins — a modest edge, not a power mismatch.

ClinchMehemmedeli owns it

Osmanli's latest supplied win was a guillotine; no clinch rates or control data exist.

GroundEven

Six submission wins versus eight, offset by Osmanli's only loss coming by submission and Akylbek Uulu never losing that way.

The Deep Read

Akylbek Uulu–Osmanli requires care with a familiar analytical shortcut: converting a preferred style into an assumed advantage. The central issue is not which athlete is described as more comfortable in a phase, but whether he can reach that phase without conceding more effective offence on the way. A plan that works only after an uncontested entry is incomplete. The opponent's first defensive response and the follow-up action belong in the same assessment.

The fight can change direction at the moment an initial attack fails. The attacker needs balance and a second option; the defender needs either a safe exit or a position from which to counter. Repeated resets could favour a different route from prolonged contact, which is why the page's scenarios should be read as conditional sequences rather than independent predictions. Neither a short finishing history nor a regional record supplies a reliable percentage for those transitions.

The existing forecast carries more uncertainty than its visual precision might suggest. Limited UFC exposure leaves a greater role for assumptions about opposition, readiness and how regional performances translate. The price details should therefore be read together with the counterarguments, not as a standalone recommendation. An old reference quote may support a historical calculation, but it cannot establish that the same opportunity exists when the reader opens the page.

Path to Victory

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

Turn the submission mirror into a back-control fight. Six career submissions and consecutive rear-naked chokes attack the method behind Osmanli's only loss.

Why they win
01
The opponent's only loss

Osmanli's sole defeat came by submission, directly validating Akylbek Uulu's primary path.

02
Six submission wins

Sixty percent of his victories, with rear-naked chokes in each of the two most recent supplied wins.

03
No submission losses

His entire defeat ledger is striking-based, not grappling-based.

04
Decision depth

Four wins on the cards against Osmanli's two give him a real secondary route.

05
A documented rebound

Two consecutive wins after two TKO losses show that the 2024 setbacks did not stop his progression.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Create grappling without accepting bottom

    The submission path is live, but giving an eight-submission opponent top position is an unnecessary trade.

  2. 2
    Prioritize the back

    The rear-naked choke finished both supplied recent wins.

  3. 3
    Keep early striking conservative

    The fifteen-second Eskiev loss is the clearest warning in the file.

  4. 4
    Bank position

    If the choke does not appear, four career decision wins make control a valid route.

  5. 5
    Respect Round 2

    It is Osmanli's documented finish window and the round of Akylbek Uulu's other supplied TKO loss.

Path to Victory

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

Use the broader recent portfolio. Make Akylbek Uulu defend strikes before grappling, then build toward the Round-2 window that produced three supplied finishes.

Why they win
01
The cleaner record

12-1 against 10-3, with the only loss by submission.

02
Five supplied recent wins

Submission, decision and TKO routes all appear in the 5-0 window.

03
Eight submission wins

Two-thirds of his victories, including a guillotine in the latest supplied fight.

04
The damage ledger

Two KO wins and zero KO losses against an opponent with zero KO wins and three KO losses.

05
Round 2

Three supplied recent finishes landed in the middle round.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Strike before grappling

    Make the zero-KO opponent defend damage and level changes at the same time.

  2. 2
    Use the clinch to find the neck

    The latest supplied win was a Round-2 guillotine.

  3. 3
    Ground-and-pound safely

    Akylbek Uulu has two supplied ground-and-pound losses; Osmanli should not force a reckless submission race.

  4. 4
    Build toward Round 2

    Three of the five supplied recent wins ended in that round.

  5. 5
    Accept the scorecards

    Back-to-back unanimous decisions in 2025 prove that a finish is not required.

Danger Zone

How Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu loses

  • He cannot secure top position, is forced to strike, and his zero-KO offense cannot discourage pressure.

  • The Round-2 ground-and-pound vulnerability from the Nazruloev loss reappears against a grappler with a recent TKO.

  • He chases a choke, loses position and gives Osmanli the scramble that opens his own submission game.

Danger Zone

How Mehemmedeli Osmanli loses

  • He initiates grappling against another submission specialist and exposes the vulnerability behind his only career loss.

  • The regional 5-0 run does not translate cleanly to UFC bantamweight competition.

  • A low-event positional fight reaches the cards, where Akylbek Uulu owns twice as many career decision wins.

Fourteen combined submission wins

Mirrored Submission Strengths

Akylbek Uulu has six submission wins in ten victories; Osmanli has eight in twelve. Both most recent supplied wins came by choke. The decisive positional variables — entries, reversals, takedown defense and control — are not measured.

6 vs 8
career submission wins
Each man attacks a different historical weakness

The Loss-Method Cross

Akylbek Uulu has never lost by submission, while Osmanli's only loss came that way. Osmanli has never lost by KO/TKO, while every Akylbek Uulu loss came by KO/TKO.

3 vs 1
Akylbek Uulu KO losses vs Osmanli submission losses
A real restriction on the upset tree

Zero Knockout Wins

Akylbek Uulu's zero means the forecast cannot assign him a meaningful puncher's route without contradicting the supplied career record. His 45 win shares are concentrated entirely in submission and decision.

0%
Akylbek Uulu career wins by KO/TKO
The cleanest available separator

The Five-Fight Form Gap

Osmanli is 5-0 in the supplied window with three Round-2 finishes and two decisions. Akylbek Uulu is 3-2 with two TKO losses followed by two submission wins.

5-0
Osmanli supplied recent window
Why conviction stops at three

Two Empty UFC Files

No UFC rates, round-by-round rows, ranks, complete physical profiles or market odds exist for either debutant in the supplied data. The page preserves those gaps rather than filling them.

The Five-Round Clock

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu danger windowMehemmedeli Osmanli danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Volatility in both directions

Akylbek Uulu owns a supplied RNC at 1:02 and a TKO loss at 0:15. Osmanli has no supplied recent Round-1 finish, so no directional output claim is made.

Critical Insight
If the first round is competitive and unresolved, the evidence tilts toward Osmanli in Round 2. If the bout reaches the final horn without a decisive grappling exchange, Akylbek Uulu's four career decision wins keep the upset route open.
05

The Verdict

One hundred scenarios in a submission mirror — conviction 3/10

If you only read 3 things
1

Both men are submission-first: Akylbek Uulu has 6 submission wins, Osmanli 8. Osmanli's only loss came by submission, so the underdog's best route is directly validated.

2

Akylbek Uulu has 0 KO wins and all 3 losses by KO/TKO. Osmanli owns only 2 KO wins, but his modest striking route points at the clearest historical weakness in the fight.

3

Osmanli 55% / Akylbek Uulu 45%, conviction 3/10 — a debutant grappling mirror with no UFC rates, round data or market line.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Akylbek Uulu Submission — 27%Osmanli Submission — 27%Akylbek Uulu Decision — 18%Osmanli Decision — 17%Osmanli KO/TKO — 11%Akylbek Uulu KO/TKO — 0%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu gold · Mehemmedeli Osmanli orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Mirrored submission production

Six of ten wins versus eight of twelve. Submission remains the largest method bucket for both fighters at 27 shares each.

Osmanli's only loss

It came by submission, preventing his cleaner 12-1 record from becoming a wide forecast.

The knockout ledger

Akylbek Uulu has zero KO wins and all three losses by KO/TKO. Osmanli has only two KO wins, so the matchup adds an 11-share path rather than making it dominant.

Recent form

The supplied windows read 3-2 against 5-0. Osmanli's run includes submission, TKO and decision outcomes.

Missing UFC evidence

No rates, RxR, ranks, physical measurements or market odds exist for either debutant. That pulls the split toward 50-50 and caps conviction at 3/10.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Submission Mirror

A scramble decides the fight. Both men receive 27 submission shares: Akylbek Uulu attacks the method behind Osmanli's only loss, while Osmanli brings eight career taps and the latest supplied guillotine.

Scripted outcomes for Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu vs Mehemmedeli Osmanli — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu win probability
0%
18%
27%
KO/TKODECSUB
  • Zero shares. Akylbek Uulu has zero KO/TKO wins in the supplied career method split, and the forecast does not invent a method he has never produced.

  • Eighteen shares. Four of ten wins came on the cards, twice Osmanli's career decision count.

  • Twenty-seven shares and the principal upset route: six career submissions, consecutive supplied rear-naked chokes, and an opponent whose only loss came by submission.

Mehemmedeli Osmanli win probability
0%
11%
17%
27%
KO/TKODECSUB
  • Eleven shares. Osmanli has only two career KO/TKO wins, but Akylbek Uulu's three defeats all came by KO/TKO. This is matchup elevation, not a claim that Osmanli is a power striker.

  • Seventeen shares. Two career decision wins, both represented in the supplied 2025 history, make the cards a real secondary route.

  • Twenty-seven shares. Eight of twelve wins came by submission, including a guillotine in the latest supplied fight. Akylbek Uulu's zero submission losses keep the allocation below the raw career share.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Even
R2
Mehemmedeli
R3
Even
29-28 Osmanli
The supplied Round-2 form edge separates an otherwise close positional fight
Narrow preferred decision shape
29-28 Akylbek Uulu
Back control and the deeper career decision count steal two rounds
Nearly as plausible
30-27 either fighter
One grappler repeatedly owns position without finding the finish
Low-confidence tail outcome

Model and price

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
45%
Fair odds
+122
Reference quote
+231 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.22
Estimated EV
+48.9%
Edge vs no-vig market
+15.9 pp

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
55%
Fair odds
-122
Reference quote
-279 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.82
Estimated EV
-25.3%
Edge vs no-vig market
-15.9 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.23 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Mehemmedeli Osmanli

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.82 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Akylbek Uulu +231 (30.2% implied vs model 45%) is the moneyline overlay. Fade Osmanli -279: the market prices a 74% favourite against a 55% model share. Conviction is 3/10 on a dual-debut sample — size the bet accordingly. The most informative method comparison remains the mirrored 27% submission allocation.

Conviction
0
3/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A modest five-point lean based on record, recent form and the damage ledger. The matchup remains close because Akylbek Uulu's best weapon directly attacks the method behind Osmanli's only loss, and neither debutant has measured UFC data. Lean: Mehemmedeli Osmanli.

What backs the lean
  • 12-1 record against 10-3.

  • Five wins in the supplied recent window against a 3-2 window containing two TKO losses.

  • Eight submission wins and a recent guillotine.

  • Two KO wins and zero KO losses against zero KO wins and three KO losses.

  • Three supplied recent Round-2 finishes.

What limits it
  • Both men are making their UFC debut.

  • No supplied UFC rates, RxR, ranks, complete physical attributes or market odds.

  • Akylbek Uulu's six submission wins attack the method behind Osmanli's only loss.

  • No shared opponent is supplied.

  • Regional success does not establish UFC bantamweight transfer.

Final Assessment

The safest description is a submission mirror with one meaningful form edge. Akylbek Uulu and Osmanli have combined for fourteen submission wins, and both arrive off choke victories. If the fight becomes an extended positional exchange, neither record supports treating the other man as safe. Osmanli's lone loss by submission is why a 12-1 fighter is not a clear favorite here.

The deciding evidence sits outside that symmetry. Osmanli is 5-0 in the supplied recent window, has finished three opponents in Round 2, and has shown submission, TKO and decision routes. Akylbek Uulu recovered well from two 2024 stoppage defeats, but his career still contains zero knockout wins and three knockout losses — every defeat he has suffered. Osmanli needs only a modest striking threat to make that history relevant.

Pick: Mehemmedeli Osmanli 55% to Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu 45%, with equal 27% submission shares, Osmanli carrying the only knockout allocation at 11%, and conviction at 3/10. The honest expectation is uncertainty: a debutant grappling match whose most important positional variables have never been measured in the UFC.

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