Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu vs Mehemmedeli Osmanli – UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos Prediction

BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDS · UFC DEBUTSUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

10W3L

Submission Grappler

…

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

“Ineffable”

12W1L

Submission Grappler

…

Mirrored submission threats, unequal damage histories

BantamweightMeta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United StatesSeptember 26, 202625ft Octagon (Small Cage)

The Frame

A dual UFC debut with every unknown left visible

The Analyst's Take

This is a submission mirror with one meaningful form edge. Akylbek Uulu has six submission wins in ten victories; Osmanli has eight in twelve. The separation is that Akylbek Uulu owns zero knockout wins and all three of his losses came by KO/TKO, while Osmanli is 12-1 and won all five fights in the supplied recent window.

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

Attribute

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

Age

5'7"

Height

+2" Osmanli5'9"

Not published

Reach

Not published

Not supplied

Leg Reach

Not supplied

Stance

Not supplied

VFS Academy

Team

Not published

Sep 26, 2026 (this fight)

Octagon Debut

Sep 26, 2026 (this fight)

Submission grappler — 6 submission wins

Fighting Style

Submission grappler — 8 submission wins

Dec 6, 2025 — win

Last Supplied Fight

Nov 15, 2025 — win

Osmanli owns a modest two-inch height edge at 5-foot-9 against 5-foot-7, with both men in their early twenties. Reach is unpublished for either debutant, so the frame comparison stops at height. Akylbek Uulu trains at VFS Academy; Osmanli's camp is not listed on ESPN.

Venue Factor
The smaller Meta APEX cage can compress space and create more clinches and scrambles, which is relevant to two submission-heavy records. It is context rather than a measured edge: no takedown, control-time or position data exists for either debutant.

The Fighters

Submission-led careers, recent form, and unequal loss profiles

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

Pro Record

10-3-0

UFC Record

0-0 — Octagon debut

Streak

2 wins after 2 consecutive TKO losses

Finish Rate

60% (6 of 10 wins) — all by submission

Avg Fight Time

Not available — no UFC bouts

Chin · High-risk history — all 3 losses by KO/TKOSOS · Regional — ONE Friday Fights, EFC Global, AFPEditorial label — submission grappler

Akylbek Uulu's record is polarized. All ten wins come by submission or decision, with zero knockout wins, while all three defeats came by KO/TKO. His supplied recent history shows the recovery clearly: two 2024 stoppage losses followed by two rear-naked-choke wins, the latest in Round 4 over Mo Miller. That comeback restores his primary path without erasing the damage mechanism behind every loss.

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

Pro Record

12-1-0

UFC Record

0-0 — Octagon debut

Streak

5 wins in the supplied recent window

Finish Rate

83% (10 of 12 wins) — 8 submissions, 2 KO/TKO

Avg Fight Time

Not available — no UFC bouts

Chin · No KO/TKO losses in the supplied career splitSOS · Regional — UAE Warriors, New Generation FightingEditorial label — submission grappler

Osmanli brings the cleaner record and steadier supplied form. He is 12-1 and 5-0 across the listed recent fights, with three Round-2 finishes and two unanimous decisions. Eight of twelve wins are submissions. The caveat is perfectly aligned with this matchup: his only professional defeat came by submission, so Akylbek Uulu's best weapon attacks the one method that has already beaten him.

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulusignature weapons

Rear-Naked ChokeTwo documented in the supplied recent window: Mo Miller in R4 and Ozodbek Bobokulov in R1

×2

Career Submissions60% of ten wins; techniques for the other four are not supplied

×6

Decision Route40% of ten wins

×4

Mehemmedeli Osmanlisignature weapons

Career Submissions67% of twelve wins

×8

Guillotine ChokeBakhtovar Yunusov, R2 1:57 at UAE Warriors 65 — latest supplied fight

×1

KO/TKOIncludes Omar Ashour by punches in R2; no broader power claim is made

×2

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

Mo Miller

Submission — Rear-naked choke

RR4 (2:14)

AFP 104 — Dec 6, 2025

Ozodbek Bobokulov

Submission — Rear-naked choke

RR1 (1:02)

EFC Global 50 — Oct 26, 2024

Dzhokhar Eskiev

TKO — Left hook to ground-and-pound

RR1 (0:15)

ONE Friday Fights 74 — Aug 9, 2024

Khalim Nazruloev

TKO — Ground-and-pound

RR2 (1:59)

ONE Friday Fights 47 — Jan 12, 2024

Gadzhimurad Gasanguseynov

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

ONE Friday Fights 31 — Sep 1, 2023

Pattern

Two rear-naked-choke wins followed two knockout losses. The rebound matters, but the mechanism remains the central risk: one defeat ended after a left hook in fifteen seconds and the other by ground-and-pound in Round 2. His latest Round-4 submission supports duration without supplying any UFC pace data.

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

Bakhtovar Yunusov

Submission — Guillotine choke

RR2 (1:57)

UAE Warriors 65 — Nov 15, 2025

Ali Yousefi

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

New Generation Fighting 5 — Sep 13, 2025

Faeez Jacobs

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UAE Warriors 62 — Jul 24, 2025

Shamil Boraev

Submission — technique not supplied

RR2 (3:28)

UAE Warriors 54 — Sep 28, 2024

Omar Ashour

TKO — Punches

RR2 (2:36)

New Generation Fighting 4 — Jun 6, 2024

Pattern

Five supplied fights, five wins, three Round-2 finishes and two decisions. Osmanli has recently shown submission, striking and scorecard routes. Three UAE Warriors appearances provide regional continuity, but regional success is not treated as UFC proof.

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
The method donuts use complete career win counts; Osmanli's displayed 17/16/67 split is normalized to 100 after the source's whole-number rounding produces 101. The round bars cover only the five supplied recent fights on each side, not complete career timing. Submission production is mirrored, but vulnerability is not: Akylbek Uulu has never lost by submission, while Osmanli's only loss came that way.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Ilimbek	Mehemmedeli
No shared opponent supplied	Regional history: ONE Friday Fights, EFC Global, AFP	Regional history: UAE Warriors, New Generation Fighting
No transitive comparison is used. The supplied dossiers contain separate regional paths.

0.0

Mehemmedelismall sample

A modest estimated gap supports a modest 55-45 editorial lean and no stronger conclusion.

Metric	Ilimbek	Mehemmedeli
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	N/A — no UFC boutssmall sample	N/A — no UFC boutssmall sample
Pace Tier	N/A — no rate linesmall sample	N/A — no rate linesmall sample
Supplied Last Five	3-2	5-0
Documented R2 Finishes	0 wins; 1 TKO loss	3 wins
Championship Rounds	1 supplied R4 submission	Not supplied

Archetype Base Rate

Submission Grappler 50%50% Submission Grappler

No archetype base-rate sample · No database archetype or historical matchup rate is applied. The 55-45 lean is editorial and comes from Osmanli's record, recent form and broader method portfolio, balanced against his lone submission loss.

Ilimbek Akylbek UuluMehemmedeli Osmanli

Bantamweight — no ranking sample

· 0 fighters

Stat	Ilimbek	Ilimbek rank	Div avg	Mehemmedeli rank	Mehemmedeli
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	N/A	—	—	—	N/A
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	N/A	—	—	—	N/A
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	N/A	—	—	—	N/A
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	N/A	—	—	—	N/A
TD Acc	N/A	—	—	—	N/A
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	N/A	—	—	—	N/A
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	N/A	—	—	—	N/A
Pro Record	10-3-0	—	—	—	12-1-0
KO/TKO Wins	0	—	—	—	2
Submission Wins	6 (60%)	—	—	—	8 (67%)
Decision Wins	4 (40%)	—	—	—	2 (17%)
KO/TKO Losses	3 (all losses)	—	—	—	0
Submission Losses	0	—	—	—	1 (only loss)
Supplied Last Five	W-W-L-L-W	—	—	—	W-W-W-W-W

Statistical Verdict
The UFC-rate rows are empty on purpose. The reliable career columns favor Osmanli in record, finish rate, recent form and knockout durability. Akylbek Uulu's counter is narrower but live: more decision wins, no submission losses, and a six-submission offense aimed at the method behind Osmanli's only defeat.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Mehemmedeli Osmanli

Control Time per Round (sec)

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

No UFC round-by-round rows exist. Every output, accuracy, control and knockdown value remains null rather than estimated.
The supplied timing evidence is limited to recent results: an R1 rear-naked choke, an R4 rear-naked choke, an R1 TKO loss and an R2 TKO loss.
Four career decision wins and the recent R4 submission support duration only; they do not supply a pace curve.

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

No UFC round-by-round rows exist. Osmanli's side of every measured round chart is intentionally blank.
Three of five supplied recent wins ended in Round 2: guillotine, another submission, and TKO by punches.
Two unanimous decisions in 2025 support a three-round route without revealing round-by-round scoring or output.

Critical Insight
The only defensible timing lean is Round 2 toward Osmanli. Three supplied recent wins ended there, while one of Akylbek Uulu's supplied stoppage losses also came there. Nothing more granular is inferred.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

No UFC strike-target data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Fighters without UFC samples are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

Ilimbek · N/AMehemmedeli · N/A

No UFC range-share data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

A submission mirror separated by form and damage history

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceMehemmedeli owns it

Only a slight editorial lean: Osmanli has 2 KO wins and 0 KO losses; Akylbek Uulu has 0 KO wins and 3 KO losses. No striking rates exist.

Pocket / ExchangesMehemmedeli owns it

Akylbek Uulu's entire loss profile is KO/TKO, but Osmanli has only two knockout wins — a modest edge, not a power mismatch.

ClinchMehemmedeli owns it

Osmanli's latest supplied win was a guillotine; no clinch rates or control data exist.

GroundEven

Six submission wins versus eight, offset by Osmanli's only loss coming by submission and Akylbek Uulu never losing that way.

Path to Victory

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

Turn the submission mirror into a back-control fight. Six career submissions and consecutive rear-naked chokes attack the method behind Osmanli's only loss.

Why they win

The opponent's only loss

Osmanli's sole defeat came by submission, directly validating Akylbek Uulu's primary path.

Six submission wins

Sixty percent of his victories, with rear-naked chokes in each of the two most recent supplied wins.

No submission losses

His entire defeat ledger is striking-based, not grappling-based.

Decision depth

Four wins on the cards against Osmanli's two give him a real secondary route.

A documented rebound

Two consecutive wins after two TKO losses show that the 2024 setbacks did not stop his progression.

The gameplan

1
Create grappling without accepting bottom
The submission path is live, but giving an eight-submission opponent top position is an unnecessary trade.
2
Prioritize the back
The rear-naked choke finished both supplied recent wins.
3
Keep early striking conservative
The fifteen-second Eskiev loss is the clearest warning in the file.
4
Bank position
If the choke does not appear, four career decision wins make control a valid route.
5
Respect Round 2
It is Osmanli's documented finish window and the round of Akylbek Uulu's other supplied TKO loss.

Path to Victory

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

Use the broader recent portfolio. Make Akylbek Uulu defend strikes before grappling, then build toward the Round-2 window that produced three supplied finishes.

Why they win

The cleaner record

12-1 against 10-3, with the only loss by submission.

Five supplied recent wins

Submission, decision and TKO routes all appear in the 5-0 window.

Eight submission wins

Two-thirds of his victories, including a guillotine in the latest supplied fight.

The damage ledger

Two KO wins and zero KO losses against an opponent with zero KO wins and three KO losses.

Round 2

Three supplied recent finishes landed in the middle round.

The gameplan

1
Strike before grappling
Make the zero-KO opponent defend damage and level changes at the same time.
2
Use the clinch to find the neck
The latest supplied win was a Round-2 guillotine.
3
Ground-and-pound safely
Akylbek Uulu has two supplied ground-and-pound losses; Osmanli should not force a reckless submission race.
4
Build toward Round 2
Three of the five supplied recent wins ended in that round.
5
Accept the scorecards
Back-to-back unanimous decisions in 2025 prove that a finish is not required.

Danger Zone

How Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu loses

He cannot secure top position, is forced to strike, and his zero-KO offense cannot discourage pressure.
The Round-2 ground-and-pound vulnerability from the Nazruloev loss reappears against a grappler with a recent TKO.
He chases a choke, loses position and gives Osmanli the scramble that opens his own submission game.

Danger Zone

How Mehemmedeli Osmanli loses

He initiates grappling against another submission specialist and exposes the vulnerability behind his only career loss.
The regional 5-0 run does not translate cleanly to UFC bantamweight competition.
A low-event positional fight reaches the cards, where Akylbek Uulu owns twice as many career decision wins.

Fourteen combined submission wins

Mirrored Submission Strengths

Akylbek Uulu has six submission wins in ten victories; Osmanli has eight in twelve. Both most recent supplied wins came by choke. The decisive positional variables — entries, reversals, takedown defense and control — are not measured.

6 vs 8

career submission wins

Each man attacks a different historical weakness

The Loss-Method Cross

Akylbek Uulu has never lost by submission, while Osmanli's only loss came that way. Osmanli has never lost by KO/TKO, while every Akylbek Uulu loss came by KO/TKO.

3 vs 1

Akylbek Uulu KO losses vs Osmanli submission losses

A real restriction on the upset tree

Zero Knockout Wins

Akylbek Uulu's zero means the forecast cannot assign him a meaningful puncher's route without contradicting the supplied career record. His 45 win shares are concentrated entirely in submission and decision.

Akylbek Uulu career wins by KO/TKO

The cleanest available separator

The Five-Fight Form Gap

Osmanli is 5-0 in the supplied window with three Round-2 finishes and two decisions. Akylbek Uulu is 3-2 with two TKO losses followed by two submission wins.

5-0

Osmanli supplied recent window

Why conviction stops at three

Two Empty UFC Files

No UFC rates, round-by-round rows, ranks, complete physical profiles or market odds exist for either debutant in the supplied data. The page preserves those gaps rather than filling them.

The Five-Round Clock

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu danger windowMehemmedeli Osmanli danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Volatility in both directions

Akylbek Uulu owns a supplied RNC at 1:02 and a TKO loss at 0:15. Osmanli has no supplied recent Round-1 finish, so no directional output claim is made.

Critical Insight
If the first round is competitive and unresolved, the evidence tilts toward Osmanli in Round 2. If the bout reaches the final horn without a decisive grappling exchange, Akylbek Uulu's four career decision wins keep the upset route open.

The Verdict

One hundred scenarios in a submission mirror — conviction 3/10

If you only read 3 things

Both men are submission-first: Akylbek Uulu has 6 submission wins, Osmanli 8. Osmanli's only loss came by submission, so the underdog's best route is directly validated.

Akylbek Uulu has 0 KO wins and all 3 losses by KO/TKO. Osmanli owns only 2 KO wins, but his modest striking route points at the clearest historical weakness in the fight.

Osmanli 55% / Akylbek Uulu 45%, conviction 3/10 — a debutant grappling mirror with no UFC rates, round data or market line.

100 Simulated Fights

Akylbek Uulu Submission — 27%Osmanli Submission — 27%Akylbek Uulu Decision — 18%Osmanli Decision — 17%Osmanli KO/TKO — 11%Akylbek Uulu KO/TKO — 0%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu gold · Mehemmedeli Osmanli orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Mirrored submission production

Six of ten wins versus eight of twelve. Submission remains the largest method bucket for both fighters at 27 shares each.

Osmanli's only loss

It came by submission, preventing his cleaner 12-1 record from becoming a wide forecast.

The knockout ledger

Akylbek Uulu has zero KO wins and all three losses by KO/TKO. Osmanli has only two KO wins, so the matchup adds an 11-share path rather than making it dominant.

Recent form

The supplied windows read 3-2 against 5-0. Osmanli's run includes submission, TKO and decision outcomes.

Missing UFC evidence

No rates, RxR, ranks, physical measurements or market odds exist for either debutant. That pulls the split toward 50-50 and caps conviction at 3/10.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Submission Mirror

A scramble decides the fight. Both men receive 27 submission shares: Akylbek Uulu attacks the method behind Osmanli's only loss, while Osmanli brings eight career taps and the latest supplied guillotine.

Scripted outcomes for Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu vs Mehemmedeli Osmanli — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu win probability

18%

27%

KO/TKODECSUB

Zero shares. Akylbek Uulu has zero KO/TKO wins in the supplied career method split, and the forecast does not invent a method he has never produced.
Eighteen shares. Four of ten wins came on the cards, twice Osmanli's career decision count.
Twenty-seven shares and the principal upset route: six career submissions, consecutive supplied rear-naked chokes, and an opponent whose only loss came by submission.

Mehemmedeli Osmanli win probability

11%

17%

27%

KO/TKODECSUB

Eleven shares. Osmanli has only two career KO/TKO wins, but Akylbek Uulu's three defeats all came by KO/TKO. This is matchup elevation, not a claim that Osmanli is a power striker.
Seventeen shares. Two career decision wins, both represented in the supplied 2025 history, make the cards a real secondary route.
Twenty-seven shares. Eight of twelve wins came by submission, including a guillotine in the latest supplied fight. Akylbek Uulu's zero submission losses keep the allocation below the raw career share.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Even

Mehemmedeli

Even

29-28 Osmanli

The supplied Round-2 form edge separates an otherwise close positional fight

Narrow preferred decision shape

29-28 Akylbek Uulu

Back control and the deeper career decision count steal two rounds

Nearly as plausible

30-27 either fighter

One grappler repeatedly owns position without finding the finish

Low-confidence tail outcome

Moneyline

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu

Not posted

Mehemmedeli Osmanli

Not posted

No BetOnline or other market line is supplied, and none is invented. The 55-45 probabilities convert to approximate no-vig fair prices of Akylbek Uulu +122 and Osmanli -122. These are probability conversions, not sportsbook odds.

Props: model vs market

Prop	Odds	Implied %	Model %	Fair	Edge	Verdict

Best Value
Pass until a real market exists. A 55-45 dual-debut forecast with no physical data, UFC rates, round-by-round evidence or posted odds does not justify a value declaration. The most informative method comparison is the mirrored 27% submission allocation, not a bet recommendation.

Conviction

3/10

A modest five-point lean based on record, recent form and the damage ledger. The matchup remains close because Akylbek Uulu's best weapon directly attacks the method behind Osmanli's only loss, and neither debutant has measured UFC data. Lean: Mehemmedeli Osmanli.

What backs the lean

12-1 record against 10-3.
Five wins in the supplied recent window against a 3-2 window containing two TKO losses.
Eight submission wins and a recent guillotine.
Two KO wins and zero KO losses against zero KO wins and three KO losses.
Three supplied recent Round-2 finishes.

What limits it

Both men are making their UFC debut.
No supplied UFC rates, RxR, ranks, complete physical attributes or market odds.
Akylbek Uulu's six submission wins attack the method behind Osmanli's only loss.
No shared opponent is supplied.
Regional success does not establish UFC bantamweight transfer.

Final Assessment

The safest description is a submission mirror with one meaningful form edge. Akylbek Uulu and Osmanli have combined for fourteen submission wins, and both arrive off choke victories. If the fight becomes an extended positional exchange, neither record supports treating the other man as safe. Osmanli's lone loss by submission is why a 12-1 fighter is not a clear favorite here.

The deciding evidence sits outside that symmetry. Osmanli is 5-0 in the supplied recent window, has finished three opponents in Round 2, and has shown submission, TKO and decision routes. Akylbek Uulu recovered well from two 2024 stoppage defeats, but his career still contains zero knockout wins and three knockout losses — every defeat he has suffered. Osmanli needs only a modest striking threat to make that history relevant.

Pick: Mehemmedeli Osmanli 55% to Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu 45%, with equal 27% submission shares, Osmanli carrying the only knockout allocation at 11%, and conviction at 3/10. The honest expectation is uncertainty: a debutant grappling match whose most important positional variables have never been measured in the UFC.

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