Tina Black vs Melissa Amaya – UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos Fight Analytics & Prediction

WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDS · DUAL UFC DEBUTUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos

Tina Black

15W4L

Decision-Tested Veteran

…

Melissa Amaya

“La Mamba”

8W0L

Undefeated Finisher

…

Nineteen fights of experience against an unbeaten 8-0 start

Women's StrawweightMeta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United StatesSeptember 26, 2026Meta APEX — physical and style effects unassigned

The Frame

What this fight is really about — experience, upside, and missing tape

The Analyst's Take

Two strawweights making their UFC debut on the same night — and the argument is experience versus upside. Tina Black (billed on the card; ESPN lists Valesca Machado) brings a 15-4-0 ledger with one unidentified No Contest, nine decision wins and a 4-1 recent run through Invicta. Melissa "La Mamba" Amaya is 8-0, has finished five wins, and owns a documented finish in every round of a three-round fight in her recent Combate Global run. Black's case is fight management across a full professional sample; Amaya's is an unbeaten finishing map that keeps the upset lane wide. The lean is Black 55-45, conviction 2 out of 10.

Tina Black

Attribute

Melissa Amaya

Not supplied

Age

Not supplied

Height

5'4"

Not supplied

Reach

64"

Not supplied

Leg Reach

Not supplied

Stance

Not supplied

Team

Sikjitsu — Spokane, Washington

Sep 26, 2026 (this fight)

Octagon Debut

Sep 26, 2026 (this fight)

Valesca Machado — billed as Tina Black

Identity

Melissa "La Mamba" Amaya

Decision-tested (record-based editorial label)

Fighting Style

Three-method finisher (record-based editorial label)

Amaya brings the only published measurements: 31 years old, 5-foot-4 with a 64-inch reach, training at Sikjitsu. Black's age, height and reach remain unpublished under her Tina Black billing (ESPN: Valesca Machado). No honest size edge can be assigned beyond Amaya's verified frame against Black's unknown one.

Venue Factor
The event is scheduled for the Meta APEX, but neither fighter has a supplied style or measurable profile detailed enough to claim that the smaller floor benefits her. The cage may compress space in general; assigning that effect to Black or Amaya would be speculation.

The Fighters

Records, methods, and the supplied form they bring into their UFC debuts

Tina Black

Pro Record

15-4-0, 1 NC (the NC remains unidentified)

UFC Record

0-0 — Octagon debut

Streak

4-1 in the five supplied recent results; three straight wins

Finish Rate

40% (6 of 15 wins) — 5 KO/TKO, 1 submission

Avg Fight Time

Not supplied — no UFC bouts

Chin · Unfinished in supplied career method ledger — 0 KO/TKO losses, 0 submission lossesSOS · Regional / InvictaNot in UFC data — decision-tested editorial profile

Black owns the deeper ledger: fifteen wins, four losses, and one No Contest whose identity is not supplied. Nine wins and all four losses went to decision. In the supplied five-fight history she beat Yasmin Castanho and Yulia Ostroverkhova by unanimous decision in 2024, stopped Taylor Mauldin in 49 seconds, lost a unanimous decision to Danni McCormack in 2023, and beat Karolina Wójcik by unanimous decision in 2022. Three of those wins came under the Invicta banner. The experience case is real; no rate-based technical claim is attached to it.

Melissa Amaya

Pro Record

8-0-0

UFC Record

0-0 — Octagon debut

Streak

8 wins; 5-0 in the supplied recent history

Finish Rate

62.5% (5 of 8 wins) — 3 KO/TKO, 2 submissions

Avg Fight Time

Not supplied — no UFC bouts

Chin · Undefeated — no supplied KO, submission, or decision lossesSOS · Regional / Combate GlobalNot in UFC data — three-method finisher editorial profile

Amaya brings the cleaner record and the broader finish profile: 8-0 with three knockouts, two submissions, and three decisions. Her five supplied recent fights cover every route and every round — first-round KO/TKO over Megumi Sugimoto, second-round TKO over Samantha Jean-Francois, majority decision over Gillian Noll, third-round arm-triangle over Alitzel Mariscal, and unanimous decision over Naomi Tataroglu. That is genuine versatility. The uncertainty is scale: eight unbeaten regional fights do not establish how those routes transfer to a UFC debut against an opponent with almost twice as many professional bouts.

Tina Black

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Melissa Amaya

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Tina Blacksignature weapons

KO/TKOFive career wins; the only supplied technique-level timing is Taylor Mauldin at R1 0:49

×5

Decision ManagementNine career decision wins, including three unanimous decisions in the supplied recent window

×9

SubmissionOne career submission win; technique and timing not supplied

×1

Melissa Amayasignature weapons

KO/TKOThree career wins; supplied recent finishes over Sugimoto in R1 and Jean-Francois in R2

×3

Arm-TriangleAlitzel Mariscal, R3 3:12 in the supplied recent history

×1

Submission (all forms)Two career submission wins; only the arm-triangle is identified

×2

Tina Black

Yasmin Castanho

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

Invicta FC 59 — Dec 13, 2024

Yulia Ostroverkhova

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

Invicta FC 56 — Aug 9, 2024

Taylor Mauldin

KO/TKO

RR1 (0:49)

Urijah Faber's A1 Combat 18 — Feb 22, 2024

Danni McCormack

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

Invicta FC 52 — Mar 15, 2023

Karolina Wójcik

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

Invicta FC 50 — Nov 16, 2022

Pattern

Four wins in five supplied appearances, three by unanimous decision and one by a 49-second knockout. The lone defeat also went to unanimous decision. The supplied record supports durability and repeatable scorecard experience more clearly than it supports any specific technical phase.

Melissa Amaya

Megumi Sugimoto

KO/TKO

RR1 (3:51)

Combate Global — Jun 19, 2025

Samantha Jean-Francois

TKO — Punches

RR2 (3:44)

Combate Global — Jun 8, 2024

Gillian Noll

Decision — Majority

RR3

Combate Global — Apr 1, 2023

Alitzel Mariscal

Submission — Arm-triangle

RR3 (3:12)

Combate Global — Oct 30, 2022

Naomi Tataroglu

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

Combate Global — Jul 1, 2022

Pattern

Five wins, no losses, and a different route through every stage of a three-round fight: first-round knockout, second-round TKO, third-round submission, majority decision, and unanimous decision. The evidence says versatility; it does not provide pace, accuracy, defence, or control rates.

Tina Black

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Melissa Amaya

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
The method donuts are career-scoped and close exactly: Black 5 KO + 9 decision + 1 submission = 15; Amaya 3 KO + 3 decision + 2 submissions = 8. The round bars have a narrower scope because complete career round ledgers were not supplied: they map only the four Black wins and five Amaya wins in the supplied recent tables. Black's recent wins are 75% decisions; Amaya has one documented finish in every round plus two decisions.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Tina	Melissa
No shared opponents in supplied data	Invicta FC / A1 Combat recent sample	Combate Global recent sample
The repository provides no common-opponent bridge. No transitive comparison is used.

The Numbers

Editorial estimates, career facts, and deliberately empty UFC data

Striking

Editorial estimate — career methods and supplied recent results

Tinasmall sample

Melissasmall sample

No UFC striking rates exist. Black has five career knockouts and a supplied 49-second finish; Amaya has three knockouts in eight wins and stopped her two most recent supplied opponents. The two-point Amaya edge is a scouting estimate, not a measured rate advantage.

Grappling

Editorial estimate — supplied submission ledger only

Tinasmall sample

Melissasmall sample

Black has one submission win with no supplied technique or timing. Amaya has two and a documented third-round arm-triangle. No takedown, control, or submission-attempt rates exist.

Technical

(Estimated striking + estimated grappling) / 2

0.0

Tinasmall sample

Melissasmall sample

Amaya's broader method distribution creates a small estimated technical edge. It does not create the fight pick; both inputs are editorial estimates.

Cardio

Editorial estimate — decision and late-result history

Tinasmall sample

Melissasmall sample

Black's nine decision wins and four decision losses provide the larger fifteen-minute sample. Amaya has three decision wins and a supplied third-round submission. Average fight time and pace are unavailable.

Overall

(Estimated technical + estimated cardio) / 2

0.0

Tinasmall sample

Melissasmall sample

The gauges are effectively even and slightly favor Amaya's method breadth. Black's 55-45 lean comes from experience volume and decision management, kept separate from unmeasured technique.

Metric	Tina	Melissa
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	N/A — no UFC boutssmall sample	N/A — no UFC boutssmall sample
Pace Tier	N/A — no rate linesmall sample	N/A — no rate linesmall sample
Decision Wins	9 of 15 wins (60%)	3 of 8 wins (38%)
Supplied Recent Form	4-1	5-0
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	N/A — 3-round bout	N/A — 3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Decision-Tested (editorial) 50%50% Three-Method Finisher (editorial)

No archetype base-rate row — dual UFC debut · No historical archetype rate is applied because neither fighter has a database archetype or UFC sample. Fifty percent is a neutral display baseline, not evidence. The 55-45 lean is based on records, methods, form, and experience.

Tina BlackMelissa Amaya

Women's Strawweight — both fighters unranked

· 0 fighters

Stat	Tina	Tina rank	Div avg	Melissa rank	Melissa
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	N/A	—	—	—	N/A
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	N/A	—	—	—	N/A
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	N/A	—	—	—	N/A
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	N/A	—	—	—	N/A
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	N/A	—	—	—	N/A
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	N/A	—	—	—	N/A
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	N/A	—	—	—	N/A
Pro Record	15-4-0, 1 NC	—	—	—	8-0-0
Career Win Methods	5 KO / 9 DEC / 1 SUB	—	—	—	3 KO / 3 DEC / 2 SUB
Finish Rate	40% (6 of 15)	—	—	—	62.5% (5 of 8)
Supplied Recent Form	4-1	—	—	—	5-0
UFC Bouts	0	—	—	—	0
Physical Measurements	Not supplied	—	—	—	Not supplied

Statistical Verdict
The rate-stat rows are empty on purpose. Neither fighter has competed in the UFC, so there is no SLpM, accuracy, defence, absorption, takedown rate, submission-attempt rate, or divisional percentile to compare. The supplied record rows split cleanly: Amaya leads the knockout, submission, and finish percentages; Black leads the volume of evidence with fifteen wins, nine decision victories, four decision losses, and three supplied recent Invicta wins.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Tina Black

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Melissa Amaya

Control Time per Round (sec)

Tina Black

No UFC round-by-round row exists. Black is making her Octagon debut, so output, accuracy, control time, targeting, range, and knockdowns remain null rather than estimated.
The supplied recent outcome proxy is one first-round KO/TKO in 49 seconds and three unanimous-decision wins. It describes results, not pace.
Nine career decision wins and four decision losses show familiarity with full fights, but no per-round scoring or output ledger was supplied.

Melissa Amaya

No UFC round-by-round row exists. Amaya is also making her Octagon debut, so every measured chart remains blank.
The supplied recent outcome proxy contains a first-round KO/TKO at 3:51, second-round TKO at 3:44, and third-round arm-triangle at 3:12.
Those three finish times show multiple windows; they do not establish significant-strike, accuracy, control, or knockdown rates.

Critical Insight
The honest round chart is empty. The recent finish log gives Amaya one documented finish in every round and gives Black one first-round finish plus three recent decision wins. That supports scenario planning but cannot be converted into fabricated output curves.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

No UFC strike-target data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Fighters without UFC samples are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

Tina · N/AMelissa · N/A

No UFC range-share data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Experience, unbeaten upside, and the scenarios the supplied evidence supports

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceEven

No height, reach, stance, striking rate, or range-distribution data supplied

Pocket / ExchangesEven

Five Black KO wins vs three Amaya KO wins; Amaya leads by career share, but no rate or defence data exists

ClinchEven

No clinch, control, or takedown data supplied for either debutant

GroundMelissa owns it

Two Amaya submission wins and a documented R3 arm-triangle vs one unidentified Black submission win

Path to Victory

Tina Black

Turn the debut into repeatable five-minute segments. If the fight reaches the cards without a clean Amaya finishing sequence, Black's nine decision wins and larger professional sample become the best evidence available.

Why they win

Professional sample size

Fifteen wins and four losses against eight total fights — the broadest evidence on the page.

Decision experience

Nine decision wins and all four losses on the cards, with three unanimous-decision wins in the supplied recent window.

Recent Invicta results

Supplied wins at Invicta FC 50, 56 and 59; promotion context rather than a quantified strength-of-schedule score.

Response to adversity

After the McCormack loss, the supplied record shows three straight wins.

An early counterweight

The 49-second Taylor Mauldin KO/TKO means Black is not restricted to the cards even though decisions dominate her ledger.

The gameplan

1
Lower the opening variance
Deny the undefeated finisher a first-round moment and make her solve a longer fight.
2
Build repeatable rounds
Black's clearest evidence is nine decision wins, so consistency matters more than chasing an unsupported style claim.
3
Make Amaya prove the translation
Regional finishing breadth is real; forcing it through sustained resistance is the experience test.
4
Respect the arm-triangle
It is the only supplied submission technique in the matchup and arrived in Round 3.
5
Own the final minute
Use the larger decision ledger to make close rounds legible to judges.

Path to Victory

Melissa Amaya

Break the decision rhythm. Amaya has a supplied finish in every round and wins 62.5% of her fights inside the distance; one decisive sequence can make the experience gap irrelevant.

Why they win

Undefeated

Eight wins with no known loss — the cleanest result line in the matchup.

Higher finish rate

Five of eight wins inside the distance (62.5%) against Black's six of fifteen (40%).

Three-method threat

Three knockouts, two submissions, and three decisions; no single route defines the record.

Every-round finishing evidence

A first-round KO/TKO, second-round TKO, and third-round arm-triangle in the supplied five-fight window.

Most recent supplied result is a finish

Megumi Sugimoto was stopped at 3:51 of the first round in June 2025.

The gameplan

1
Disrupt the decision rhythm
Create decisive exchanges before Black can turn the fight into another fifteen-minute management exercise.
2
Carry the punching threat
The two most recent supplied wins were KO/TKO, one in the first and one in the second.
3
Keep the second route live
If striking pressure creates a clinch or scramble, the supplied arm-triangle gives Amaya another ending.
4
Preserve Round 3
Her documented late submission means the fight need not be forced in the opening ten minutes.
5
Make moments clear
An unbeaten record does not win close UFC rounds; the finish threat must translate into visible scoring.

Danger Zone

How Tina Black loses

Her decision-first route never settles because Amaya forces a finishing exchange in any of the three rounds.
Amaya's arm-triangle path exposes grappling information absent from Black's supplied dossier.
The experience advantage proves to be quantity rather than transferable level on a UFC debut.

Danger Zone

How Melissa Amaya loses

The jump from an eight-fight unbeaten record produces a more cautious fight than her finishing history suggests.
Black's decision experience turns every close phase into another managed five-minute segment.
Amaya cannot create a finish and must win three rounds against the more experienced professional.

Why the line stops at 55-45

The Experience / Upside Split

Black has nearly twice as many professional wins as Amaya has fights. Amaya has never lost and has finished five of eight wins. Experience usually narrows variance; unbeaten finishing balance increases it. Those signals point in opposite directions.

15 vs 8

career wins — Black vs Amaya

Black's repeatable outcome

The Decision Anchor

Nine of Black's fifteen wins and all four losses are decisions. Four of the five supplied recent rows also went to the cards. The outcome ledger establishes full-fight familiarity without pretending to know her pace.

career decision wins

One supplied finish in every round

Amaya's Three-Round Map

The supplied recent history contains a first-round knockout, second-round TKO, third-round submission, majority decision, and unanimous decision. It does not prove elite skill in one phase; it proves the prediction cannot reduce Amaya to one route.

R1–R3

documented finish coverage

What remains unresolved

Identity and Ledger Caveats

The event says Tina Black; ESPN identifies Valesca Machado and treats Tina Black as the nickname/billing. The page documents both. Black's one No Contest remains unidentified because no opponent, date, or cause was supplied.

1 NC

unidentified in supplied data

Why conviction is two

The Empty Data Is the Point

There are no UFC rates, round rows, physical measurements, odds, or division ranks for either debutant. Every absent field stays absent, every RxR cell stays null, and every scouting gauge is flagged as an estimate.

The Five-Round Clock

Tina Black danger windowMelissa Amaya danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Shared early finish evidence

Black stopped Mauldin at 0:49; Amaya stopped Sugimoto at 3:51. No supplied pace or defence rates distinguish the opening five.

Critical Insight
Amaya has the wider set of documented finishing windows; Black has the stronger evidence for managing all fifteen minutes. The lean assumes the fight reaches enough decision-shaped minutes for experience to matter, while reserving 45% for the unbeaten fighter whose wins cover every method and round.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred scenarios and a low-confidence pick on debut night

If you only read 3 things

Black 55% / Amaya 45%, conviction 2/10 — nineteen fights of experience against an unbeaten 8-0 finisher, both making their Octagon debut.

Black is billed as Tina Black; ESPN identifies the athlete as Valesca Machado. Her record includes one No Contest whose details are not in the supplied source.

No UFC rates, round-by-round rows or physical measurements exist for either fighter. Black by decision (32%) is the largest single outcome.

100 Simulated Fights

Black Decision — 32%Black KO/TKO — 18%Black Submission — 5%Amaya KO/TKO — 18%Amaya Decision — 17%Amaya Submission — 10%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Tina Black gold · Melissa Amaya orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Experience volume

Black's 15-4-0, 1 NC ledger contains nearly twice as many wins as Amaya has fights. It is the primary reason for the lean.

Decision reliability

Nine Black decision wins and four decision losses create the largest sample of full-fight outcomes, making Black decision the biggest bucket at 32.

Amaya's finish balance

Three knockouts and two submissions in eight wins, plus one supplied finish in every round, keep 28 of her 45 win-shares inside the distance.

Recent form

Black is 4-1 and Amaya 5-0 in the supplied five-fight windows. Amaya's cleaner line offsets some of Black's experience edge.

Dual-debut uncertainty

Zero UFC bouts, no physical measurements, no rate stats, no round rows, no odds, and no ranks cap conviction at 2/10.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

Black Banks the Rounds

The debut settles into long exchanges, no clean finish appears, and the fighter with nine decision wins manages enough close minutes to take a 29-28. It is the largest single outcome bucket.

Scripted outcomes for Tina Black vs Melissa Amaya — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Tina Black win probability

18%

32%

KO/TKODECSUB

Five of fifteen career wins came by KO/TKO, including the supplied 49-second Taylor Mauldin finish. No striking rate or knockdown ledger is available, so the branch stays below the decision path.
The largest bucket. Nine career decision wins, all four losses on the cards, and three supplied recent unanimous-decision wins make this the most repeatable outcome in the evidence.
Only one of fifteen wins came by submission, with no supplied technique or timing. Five points preserve the known route without inventing a grappling profile.

Melissa Amaya win probability

18%

17%

10%

KO/TKODECSUB

Three of eight wins came by KO/TKO, and Amaya's two most recent supplied results were a first-round knockout and second-round TKO. The smaller ledger prevents a larger allocation.
Three of eight career wins came on the cards, including a majority and unanimous decision in the supplied window. The experience disadvantage keeps this below Black's decision branch.
Two of eight wins came by submission, including a documented third-round arm-triangle. It is the clearest method-share edge over Black and receives twice Black's submission allocation.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Even

Tina

29-28 Black

The larger decision ledger manages two of three close rounds

Most likely if the fight reaches the cards

29-28 Amaya

The unbeaten fighter creates the clearer moments without finding a finish

Live counter-outcome in a low-information matchup

30-27 either way

A one-sided card would require clarity absent from the supplied evidence

Lower-confidence scorecard shape

Moneyline

Tina Black

Not posted

Melissa Amaya

Not posted

No BetOnline or other market line was supplied, and none is invented. The no-vig fair prices from the 55-45 split are approximately Tina Black -122 and Melissa Amaya +122. Those are derived fair prices, not sportsbook odds.

Props: model vs market

Prop	Odds	Implied %	Model %	Fair	Edge	Verdict

Best Value
Pass until a real market and verified fighter data exist. Black by decision is the largest outcome at 32%, while Amaya inside the distance totals 28% (18 KO/TKO + 10 submission), but two UFC debutants with no rates, measurements, or market calibration do not support a responsible value claim.

Conviction

2/10

A five-point lean based on experience and decision management, capped at very low conviction because both fighters are UFC debutants and nearly every standard measurement is unavailable. Lean: Tina Black.

What backs the lean

Fifteen professional wins against eight, with a much larger sample of losses and recoveries.
Nine decision wins and four decision losses — the clearest evidence for managing a full three-round fight.
A supplied 4-1 recent run containing three Invicta victories.
A 49-second KO/TKO in the supplied window keeps a second route live.

What limits it

Amaya is undefeated at 8-0 and has finished five wins.
Her supplied recent history contains a finish in Round 1, Round 2, and Round 3.
Both fighters have zero UFC bouts and no supplied UFC rate or round data.
Age, height, reach, stance, team, complete ledgers, odds, and division ranks are unavailable.
Black's one No Contest remains unidentified, and her Tina Black / Valesca Machado billing requires explicit identity context.

Final Assessment

The pick is Tina Black at 55%, primarily because fifteen wins, four decision losses, nine decision victories and a 4-1 recent run provide more evidence about how she navigates a complete professional fight. Her most likely route is the cards at 32%, with knockout equity at 18% and a small 5% submission branch.

Amaya's 45% is substantial, not ceremonial. She is unbeaten, has finished five of eight wins, and her recent history contains a knockout in Round 1, a TKO in Round 2, an arm-triangle in Round 3, and two decisions. Her knockout branch matches Black's at 18%, her decision branch is 17%, and her submission branch is 10%.

Pick: Tina Black by decision, 55-45 overall, conviction 2/10. A dual-debut forecast built from records, method distributions, form and experience — with the honest caveat that no Octagon rate line exists for either woman yet.

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