A volume wrestler meets an unbeaten UFC debutant
What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it
This bout was cancelled after Sutherland withdrew; Joel Faglier replaces him against Mahjoub. Sutherland's 4.49 takedowns per 15 minutes make clinch entries central to his approach. Mahjoub arrives unbeaten at 5-0 for his UFC debut, so first-contact balance, grip fighting and the ability to regain position decide how this heavyweight fight unfolds.
Sutherland stands 6'3" with a 76-inch reach at roughly 264 lb — a full-sized heavyweight who wants to lean on opponents in the clinch.
Venue FactorScheduled for 3 five-minute rounds at Rogers Place.
Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage
José Montanha
Submission · 8/8/26 · UFC Fight Night
Tai Tuivasa
Decision · 5/2/26 · UFC Fight Night
Brando Peričić
KO/TKO · 3/21/26 · UFC Fight Night
Valter Walker
Submission · 10/25/25 · UFC 321
UFC debut on this card.
Career statistics and what they say about this matchup
Published profile averages describe past opposition, not a prediction of this fight. The source sample may include Contender Series appearances.
| Metric | Louie Sutherland | Javad Mahjoub |
|---|---|---|
| Significant strikes landed / min | 1.8 | — |
| Significant strikes absorbed / min | 1.95 | — |
| Striking accuracy | 69% | — |
| Striking defence | 35% | — |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 4.49 | — |
| Takedown defence | 33% | — |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0 | — |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | 0 | — |
Submission attempts are not submission wins. Defence percentages depend on attempts faced. No matched division cohort is supplied for these profile averages, so division ranks are unavailable. A dash means unavailable data, not zero.
Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath
Sutherland's 4.49 takedowns per 15 minutes make clinch entries central to his approach. Mahjoub arrives unbeaten at 5-0 for his UFC debut, so first-contact balance, grip fighting and the ability to regain position decide how this heavyweight fight unfolds.
Set up entries with strikes, complete the takedown into a secure position and avoid sacrificing balance to force a finish.
Louie Sutherland lands 1.8 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.95. Those figures describe previous exchanges; maintaining that balance requires controlling range against this opponent.
Sutherland averages 4.49 takedowns and 0 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Position after the entry matters: the takedowns only pay off if they turn into damaging control.
Set up entries with strikes, complete the takedown into a secure position and avoid sacrificing balance to force a finish.
Prepare for Javad Mahjoub's opposing route: Contest grips before being settled underneath, use balance to interrupt consecutive entries and make Sutherland reset.
Contest grips before being settled underneath, use balance to interrupt consecutive entries and make Sutherland reset.
Javad Mahjoub arrives 5-0 and makes his Octagon debut against a fighter who is 1-3 in the UFC.
Contest grips before being settled underneath, use balance to interrupt consecutive entries and make Sutherland reset.
Prepare for Louie Sutherland's opposing route: Set up entries with strikes, complete the takedown into a secure position and avoid sacrificing balance to force a finish.
The fight follows Javad Mahjoub's route: Contest grips before being settled underneath, use balance to interrupt consecutive entries and make Sutherland reset.
Sutherland's 33% takedown defence means he can end up on his back if Mahjoub wins the first grip exchange.
The fight follows Louie Sutherland's route: Set up entries with strikes, complete the takedown into a secure position and avoid sacrificing balance to force a finish.
He is pinned on the fence for fifteen minutes by a man averaging 4.49 takedowns per 15 and drops a wrestling decision, the way Tai Tuivasa did.
Sutherland's 4.49 takedowns per 15 minutes make clinch entries central to his approach. Mahjoub arrives unbeaten at 5-0 for his UFC debut, so first-contact balance, grip fighting and the ability to regain position decide how this heavyweight fight unfolds.
Sutherland's 33% takedown defence means he can end up on his back if Mahjoub wins the first grip exchange.
This is a wrestling-first matchup: Sutherland's takedowns are the clearest weapon on either side, and Mahjoub's first answer to them is the story of the fight.
The matchup read, the betting market, and the swing factors
Our read
Sutherland's wrestling volume gives him a clear route; Mahjoub's unbeaten record says he has answers of his own, and the first clinch exchange will show which story holds.
What could change it: Sutherland's 33% takedown defence means he can end up on his back if Mahjoub wins the first grip exchange.
Analyst assessment.
Sutherland's wrestling volume gives him a clear route; Mahjoub's unbeaten record says he has answers of his own, and the first clinch exchange will show which story holds.
Sutherland's 33% takedown defence means he can end up on his back if Mahjoub wins the first grip exchange.
This is a wrestling-first matchup: Sutherland's takedowns are the clearest weapon on either side, and Mahjoub's first answer to them is the story of the fight.
Matchup assessment
This is a wrestling-first matchup: Sutherland's takedowns are the clearest weapon on either side, and Mahjoub's first answer to them is the story of the fight.
Sutherland's wrestling volume gives him a clear route; Mahjoub's unbeaten record says he has answers of his own, and the first clinch exchange will show which story holds.
The strongest objection is this: Sutherland's 33% takedown defence means he can end up on his back if Mahjoub wins the first grip exchange.
This is a wrestling-first matchup: Sutherland's takedowns are the clearest weapon on either side, and Mahjoub's first answer to them is the story of the fight.
