Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow: analysis & prediction

PRELIMS · BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Chad Anheliger — Bantamweight fighter

Chad Anheliger

“The Monster”
13W8L
Late-Building Striker
VS
Steven Koslow — Bantamweight fighter

Steven Koslow

“Obi Won Shinobi The Pillow”
6W1L
Submission Specialist

Five UFC fights against six first-round submissions

BantamweightRogers Place, Edmonton, AlbertaOctober 17, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Every one of Koslow's wins is a first-round submission, and Anheliger has spent long stretches of his UFC fights under opponents' control, including a lopsided loss to Cody Gibson in this building. The opening round is Koslow's window; after it, Anheliger's output climbs while Koslow's only UFC fight got worse for him in each round until Cameron Saaiman stopped him.

Paths that change the fight

  • Chad AnheligerSurvive the first round without giving up his back, then take over at range as his output climbs — a decision or a late stoppage.
  • Steven KoslowLand an early takedown, hold position long enough to take the back, and finish inside the first round the way he has won all six fights.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • Six first-round submission wins, and the first round is where Anheliger gets taken down most.
  • UFC opponents have landed 16 of 22 takedowns on him — Gibson held him down for most of their fight in this arena.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Chad Anheliger

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
62%
Fair odds
-163
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.61

Steven Koslow

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
38%
Fair odds
+163
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.63
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

A veteran who gets better as fights age meets a submission specialist who has never needed a second round. Chad "The Monster" Anheliger has five UFC fights, all of which reached the third round, has never been stopped by strikes in 21 pro fights, and lands more in every round than the one before. His weakness is the mat: UFC opponents have landed most of the takedowns they tried on him, and Cody Gibson held him down for most of their fight in this same arena in November 2024. Steven "Obi Won Shinobi The Pillow" Koslow won all six of his pro fights by first-round submission, then took Cameron Saaiman on a week's notice at UFC 282 — he landed takedowns, was reversed six times, and was stopped in the third round. He has not fought since. We lean Anheliger 62% / Koslow 38% at conviction 4/10: the first round belongs to the underdog, the rest of the fight to the favourite.

Chad Anheliger
Attribute
Steven Koslow
39
Age
Anheliger turns 40 on Dec 129
5'6" (66")
Height
+1.5" Koslow5'7.5" (67.5")
64.5"
Reach
+4.5" Koslow69"
37"
Leg Reach
+2" Koslow39"
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Champions Creed MMA
Team
10th Planet Jiu Jitsu
5 (2-3)
UFC Fights
1 (0-1)
Nov 2, 2024 (Cody Gibson)
Last Fight
Dec 10, 2022 (Cameron Saaiman)

Koslow has the bigger frame: an inch and a half taller, four and a half inches more reach and two inches more leg reach, on a switch stance. The larger gaps are age and ring time. Anheliger is 39 and turns 40 six weeks after the fight; Koslow is 29. Anheliger has five UFC fights, every one of which went into the third round, while Koslow has one UFC appearance, nearly four years old, that also went into the third and ended with him stopped.

Venue Factor
Anheliger has fought in this building before: his last fight, on November 2, 2024, was at Rogers Place, where Cody Gibson took him down five times in six attempts and won every scorecard. He returns as a Canadian on a Canadian card, which can help on a close round. Three of his five UFC fights were in the smaller Las Vegas cage; the standard 30-foot Octagon gives him more room to circle off the fence and away from Koslow's entries. Both men arrive off long layoffs — 714 days for Anheliger, 1,407 for Koslow.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Chad Anheliger strikes from mount against Jesse Strader during the third-round finish of his UFC debut

Chad Anheliger

Pro Record
13-8-0
UFC Record
2-3
Streak
1 loss — unanimous decision to Cody Gibson (Nov 2024)
Finish Rate
77% (10 of 13 wins) — 7 KO/TKO, 3 submission
Avg Fight Time
14:40
Chin · Iron — never stopped by strikes in 21 pro fightsSOS · UFCTechnical Striker

Anheliger reached the UFC through a split-decision win on the 2021 Contender Series, his ninth straight win in a run that began in 2016 on the Canadian regional circuit and included titles at 125 and 135 pounds. He is 2-3 in the Octagon: a third-round TKO of Jesse Strader on debut, a unanimous-decision loss to Alatengheili, a rear-naked choke by Jose Johnson at 4:49 of the third, a unanimous-decision win over Charalampos Grigoriou in which he out-landed him 85 to 21 in significant strikes, and a one-sided decision loss to Cody Gibson in Edmonton. Six of his eight career losses are submissions, but five of those came in his first seven pro fights between 2010 and 2014; since 2016 he is 11-3, and only Johnson has submitted him.

Steven Koslow portrait

Steven Koslow

Pro Record
6-1-0
UFC Record
0-1
Streak
1 loss — TKO to Cameron Saaiman (Dec 2022)
Finish Rate
100% (6 of 6 wins) — all submissions
Avg Fight Time
14:13
Chin · Questioned — stopped by strikes in his only UFC fightSOS · RegionalSubmission Artist

Koslow won all six of his pro fights by first-round submission between May 2019 and July 2022 on the Combat Night circuit — three rear-naked chokes, a kimura, a triangle and an armbar, none lasting longer than 4:05. He then took UFC 282 on a week's notice against Cameron Saaiman. He landed five of nine takedowns and held 4:40 of control, but Saaiman reversed him twice in every round, spent 6:29 on top himself, out-landed him 53 to 11 and stopped him with knees and punches at 4:13 of the third, despite losing a point for an illegal knee in the second. Koslow has not competed since, so he arrives in Edmonton after almost four years away.

Chad Anheliger
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Steven Koslow
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Chad Anheligersignature weapons

Strikes (KO/TKO)Latest: Jesse Strader, R3 3:33, Feb 2022 — three of the seven came in a third round
×7
Guillotine ChokeJames Mancini, Josh Smith and Randy Turner, 2016–2017
×3

Steven Koslowsignature weapons

Rear-Naked ChokeLatest: James Dunn, R1 4:05, Jul 2022 — also Marcelo Willian and Ginseng Poit Du'Jour
×3
KimuraAnthony Retic, R1 1:34, Mar 2021
×1
Triangle ChokeJonathan Ortiz, R1 0:21, Jul 2019
×1
ArmbarJoshua Ciulla, R1 2:12, May 2019 — his pro debut
×1

Chad Anheliger

L
Cody Gibson
Decision — Unanimous (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi — Nov 2, 2024
W
Charalampos Grigoriou
Decision — Unanimous (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura — Mar 16, 2024
L
Jose Johnson
Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (4:49)
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig — Nov 18, 2023
L
Alatengheili
Decision — Unanimous (30-27 ×3)

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson — Sep 10, 2022
W
Jesse Strader
TKO — Punches

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (3:33)
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill — Feb 19, 2022
Pattern

All five UFC fights went into the third round, and three went the distance. The two finishes, one for him and one against, both came late in the third: Strader at 3:33, Johnson's choke at 4:49. The worrying result is the most recent one — in Edmonton, Gibson took him down five times in six tries and controlled him for 12:25 of the 15 minutes. Form for this matchup: durable, late-building, and too easy to take down.

Steven Koslow

L
Cameron Saaiman
TKO — Knees and punches

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (4:13)
UFC 282: Błachowicz vs. Ankalaev — Dec 10, 2022
W
James Dunn
Submission — Rear-naked choke
R1 (4:05)
Combat Night: Orlando — Jul 16, 2022
W
Marcelo Willian
Submission — Rear-naked choke
R1 (2:29)
Combat Night Pro: Jacksonville — Nov 6, 2021
W
Anthony Retic
Submission — Kimura
R1 (1:34)
Combat Night Pro 20 — Mar 13, 2021
W
Ginseng Poit Du'Jour
Submission — Rear-naked choke
R1 (4:01)
Combat Night Pro 18 — Mar 21, 2020
Pattern

Four wins and a loss in his last five, and the loss is his only UFC fight. Every win ended in the first round, the longest at 4:05; the UFC fight lasted 14:13 and he was stopped at the end of it. He has not fought since December 2022. Form for this matchup: a first-round finisher who has never won a fight that reached a second round, returning from a layoff of almost four years.

Chad Anheliger

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Steven Koslow

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Anheliger's thirteen wins split seven knockouts, three guillotines and three decisions; six came in the first round, all on the regional circuit, and three of his knockouts came in a third round, including Strader in the UFC. Every one of Koslow's six wins is a first-round submission. The overlap that matters sits on the other side of Anheliger's ledger — six of his eight losses are submissions — although five of those date from 2010 to 2014.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorChadSteven
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)UFC — Five UFC opponents: Strader, Alatengheili, Johnson, Grigoriou, GibsonRegional — Six opponents on the Combat Night circuit and one UFC fight (Saaiman)
UFC sample2-30-1
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 2 veteran tier0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (4 vs 1 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponentsCody Gibson, Charalampos Grigoriou, Jose JohnsonCameron Saaiman, James Dunn, Marcelo Willian
03

The Numbers

Composites, division context and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Chad
0
Stevenfew UFC fights

Anheliger's line covers five UFC fights: 3.11 landed and 2.90 absorbed per minute with 54% defence. Koslow's covers one fight in which he was out-landed 53 to 11.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Chad
0
Stevenfew UFC fights

Koslow's six submission wins and five-of-nine takedowns at UFC 282 drive his score. Anheliger's is held down by his takedown defence: UFC opponents have landed 16 of 22 attempts.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Chad
0
Stevenfew UFC fights

Level: the striking edge belongs to Anheliger, the grappling edge to Koslow. The lean comes from how those edges play out over three rounds, not from this gauge.

MetricChadSteven
UFC Avg Fight Time14:40 (5 fights)14:13 (1 fight)few UFC fights
Third-Round vs First-Round Output2.2× (9.8 → 21.2 landed)1.0× (3 → 3 landed)few UFC fights
Cage Time Under Opponent Control37% (26:52 of 73:22)46% (6:29 of 14:13)few UFC fights
Days Since Last Fight714 (Nov 2, 2024)1,407 (Dec 10, 2022)
Career Finish Rate77% (10 of 13)100% (6 of 6)

Archetype Base Rate

Technical Striker 62.3%37.7% Submission Artist

355-fight sample · Technical strikers have beaten submission artists 62.3% of the time across 355 fights — almost exactly this model's split. The history says the striker usually wins; the exceptions are the fights where the grappler gets his takedown early.

Chad AnheligerSteven Koslow

Bantamweight

· 52 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where a rank is unavailable, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable. Missing benchmarks are not estimated.

StatChadChad comparisonDiv avgSteven comparisonSteven
SLpM3.11
-1.34 vs avg
4.45
-3.68 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.77
Str Acc44%
-2.20 pp vs avg
46.2%
-8.20 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
38%
Str Def54%
+0.30 pp vs avg
53.7%
-13.70 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
40%
SApM2.90
-1.29 vs avg
4.19
-0.46 vs avgfew UFC fights
3.73
TD/150.82
-0.67 vs avg
1.49
+3.79 vs avgfew UFC fights
5.28
TD Acc36%
Not available
—
Not availablefew UFC fights
56%
TD Def27%
Not available
—
Not available
—
Sub/150.41
-0.10 vs avg
0.51
+0.55 vs avgfew UFC fights
1.06
KD/150.41
-0.01 vs avg
0.42
-0.42 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.00
Statistical Verdict
Anheliger lands less than the average bantamweight but absorbs far less too — 2.90 a minute against a division mean of 4.19 — and has never been knocked down in the UFC. The cell that frames the upset is his takedown defence: opponents have landed 16 of their 22 attempts. Koslow's line is a single fight in which he shot often, struck little and faced no takedown attempts at all.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Steven Koslow

Control Time per Round (sec)

Chad Anheliger

  • Output climbs every round: 9.8 significant strikes landed in an average first round, 14.6 in the second and 21.2 in the third, with accuracy rising from 39.5% to 45.5%.
  • Both of his UFC knockdowns came after minute five — one in the second and one in the third against Jesse Strader, who was finished at 3:33 of the third.
  • The other side of the ledger: opponents have controlled him for an average of 1:55 in each of the first two rounds and 1:33 in the third, and seven of the 16 takedowns landed on him came in opening rounds.

Steven Koslow

  • One UFC fight: Cameron Saaiman at UFC 282, stopped by knees and punches at 4:13 of the third.
  • He landed five of nine takedowns and held 99, 129 and 52 seconds of control, yet Saaiman reversed him twice in every round and spent 6:29 on top himself.
  • The striking gap widened each round — Saaiman landed 4, 20 and 29 significant strikes to Koslow's 3, 5 and 3.
  • All six of his pro wins ended inside the first round; the longest lasted 4:05.
Critical Insight
The two round tables run in opposite directions. Anheliger's output more than doubles from the first round to the third, and both of his UFC knockdowns came after minute five. Koslow's only UFC fight got worse for him every round — 4, then 20, then 29 significant strikes absorbed — and none of his six pro wins needed a second round. If Koslow's first takedowns turn into a back take early, Anheliger's submission history decides the fight; if they do not, the later rounds point to the veteran.

Strike targeting

Chad

Head
69%
Body
14%
Legs
17%

Steven

Head
73%
Body
9%
Legs
18%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

ChadSteven
76%Distance73%
13%Clinch9%
11%Ground18%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceChad owns it

3.11 landed per minute, three-quarters of it at distance, against 0.77 for Koslow — his 4.5-inch reach edge is the only counterweight

Pocket / ExchangesChad owns it

Anheliger absorbs 2.90 per minute and has never been knocked down in the UFC; Koslow absorbed 3.73 against Saaiman

ClinchEven

Where Koslow's entries start and where Saaiman's knees finished him — Anheliger's guillotines live here too

GroundSteven owns it

16 of 22 UFC takedowns landed on Anheliger and 26:52 under control, against six submission wins — tempered by Saaiman's six reversals

Path to Victory

Chad Anheliger

Survive the first round without giving up his back, then take over at range as his output climbs — a decision or a late stoppage.

Why they win
01
The Octagon mileage

Five UFC fights, all into the third round, against one UFC appearance nearly four years ago.

02
Damage avoidance

He absorbs 2.90 significant strikes a minute against a bantamweight average of 4.19, and has never been knocked down in the UFC.

03
The late-fight engine

His output climbs from 9.8 landed in the first round to 21.2 in the third; Koslow has never won a fight that reached a second round.

04
The striking gap

3.11 significant strikes landed per minute against Koslow's 0.77 in his UFC fight.

05
Guillotine threat

Three career guillotine wins and a jiu-jitsu black belt — Koslow's head-first entries are not free.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Win the first five minutes by not losing them

    Every Koslow win ended in the first round; reaching the second with his back intact shifts the fight.

  2. 2
    Guard the back in scrambles

    Johnson's choke came from his back in the third round; Koslow's system is built on the same entry.

  3. 3
    Keep him at the end of punches

    Make Koslow shoot from distance rather than off exchanges in the pocket.

  4. 4
    Build from the second round

    His output rises every round; bank the second and third on volume.

  5. 5
    Punish the long shots

    Front headlock and guillotine when Koslow shoots from too far — the choke has won him three fights.

Path to Victory

Steven Koslow

Land an early takedown, hold position long enough to take the back, and finish inside the first round the way he has won all six fights.

Why they win
01
Six for six by submission

Every pro win is a first-round submission: three rear-naked chokes, a kimura, a triangle and an armbar.

02
A target who gets taken down

UFC opponents have landed 16 of 22 takedowns on Anheliger and controlled him for 26:52 of 73:22.

03
Reach and a switch stance

69" of reach against 64.5", with two inches more leg reach.

04
Ten years younger

29 against a 39-year-old who turns 40 in December.

05
Takedowns that land at this level

Five of nine against Saaiman, with 4:40 of control.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Shoot early

    The first round is where all six of his wins ended and where Anheliger has been taken down most often.

  2. 2
    Chain the attempts

    Opponents have landed 16 of 22 on Anheliger; the volume of attempts matters more than the first one.

  3. 3
    Hold position before hunting

    Saaiman reversed him six times; secure the back before chasing the choke.

  4. 4
    Mind the guillotine

    Anheliger has three guillotine finishes; keep the head out on entries.

  5. 5
    Avoid a striking third round

    Saaiman landed 29 significant strikes on him in the third; do not let the fight drift to open space late.

Danger Zone

How Chad Anheliger loses

  • Taken down in the opening minutes, he gives up his back in a scramble and becomes a seventh submission loss.

  • He repeats the Gibson fight in the same arena — round after round under control — and drops a clear decision.

  • He survives the early grappling but gets caught late, the way Jose Johnson choked him at 4:49 of the third.

Danger Zone

How Steven Koslow loses

  • His first takedowns are stuffed or reversed, as Saaiman reversed him six times, and he spends the later rounds standing against a man who lands four times as often.

  • The layoff shows: nearly four years out, and the first-round burst that won all six pro fights never arrives.

  • He fades into the third round again and is stopped by strikes, the UFC 282 ending repeated.

Six wins, none past 4:05

The First-Round Specialist

Koslow has never won a fight that reached the second round. Three rear-naked chokes, a kimura, a triangle and an armbar all came inside the opening five minutes, and the one fight that went longer, against Saaiman, was the one he lost. Nearly all of his equity sits in the first round.

6/6
Koslow wins by first-round submission
Anheliger gets better as the fight ages

The Late Climber

Across five UFC fights his significant strikes landed rise from 9.8 in the first round to 14.6 in the second and 21.2 in the third, and both of his UFC knockdowns came after minute five. His one UFC finish came at 3:33 of a third round.

2.2×
Anheliger's third-round output vs his first
Why this is not a 75-25 fight

The Takedown Problem

UFC opponents have landed 16 of 22 takedowns on Anheliger and held him down for 26:52 of 73:22. Gibson, in this arena, took him down five times in six tries and controlled him for 12:25. That is exactly the door a first-round submission specialist needs.

16 of 22
UFC takedowns landed on Anheliger
What UFC 282 actually showed

Takedowns Are Not Control

Koslow landed five of nine takedowns against Saaiman, but Saaiman reversed him twice in every round, spent more time on top than Koslow did, and out-landed him 53 to 11. Getting the fight down is only half of Koslow's job; keeping it there is the half he has not yet shown in the UFC.

6
times Saaiman reversed Koslow at UFC 282
Six submission losses, in context

An Old Weakness, a Newer Record

Six of Anheliger's eight losses are submissions, but five of those came in his first seven pro fights, between 2010 and 2014. Since 2016 he is 11-3, and only Jose Johnson has submitted him. The weakness is real; its age matters.

11-3
Anheliger since 2016

The Five-Round Clock

Chad Anheliger danger windowSteven Koslow danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Koslow's window

All six Koslow wins ended here, and seven of the 16 UFC takedowns landed on Anheliger came in opening rounds. This is where the upset lives.

Critical Insight
The fight has a simple clock: the first five minutes belong to the underdog, and every minute after that shifts toward the favourite. If Anheliger reaches the second round with his back intact, his round data, the pace and Koslow's lone UFC fight all point the same way.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

The first round is Koslow's fight: all six of his wins ended inside it, and Anheliger has been taken down far more often than he has stopped takedowns in the UFC.

2

After the first round the evidence turns. Anheliger's output climbs every round, and Koslow's only UFC fight got worse for him each round until he was stopped.

3

Anheliger by decision is the single most likely result; Koslow by submission is the underdog's live outcome.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Anheliger Decision — 28%Anheliger KO/TKO — 22%Anheliger Submission — 12%Koslow Submission — 24%Koslow KO/TKO — 8%Koslow Decision — 6%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Chad Anheliger gold · Steven Koslow orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Octagon experience

Five UFC fights to one; all five of Anheliger's went into the third round.

The first round

Every Koslow win ended inside the first round, so that window carries most of his equity.

Takedown exposure

Opponents have landed 16 of 22 takedowns on Anheliger — the main reason Koslow's submission path is so large.

Round-by-round trend

Anheliger's output climbs every round; Koslow was out-landed 20-5 and 29-3 in the second and third rounds against Saaiman.

Layoffs

Anheliger has been out since November 2024; Koslow since December 2022.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

Survive, Then Outwork

Anheliger defends the first-round shots or gets back up, then out-lands Koslow in the second and third and takes the cards — the single most likely path.

Scripted outcomes for Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Chad Anheliger win probability
0%
22%
28%
12%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Seven career knockouts, three of them in third rounds including Strader in the UFC — the late-accumulation path against a man who absorbed 29 significant strikes in his last third round.

  • The largest single bucket: survive the early grappling, then out-land him — Koslow has never won a fight that lasted beyond 4:05.

  • Three career guillotines and a jiu-jitsu black belt against a man who shoots early and often.

Steven Koslow win probability
0%
8%
6%
24%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Koslow has no knockout wins; this bucket covers a tired Anheliger being hurt late, a small path.

  • He has never won past the first round; a decision needs early control plus a stolen round.

  • The live underdog outcome — six first-round submissions, against a man taken down 16 times in 22 UFC attempts.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Steven
R2
Chad
R3
Chad
29-28 Anheliger
Koslow's takedowns win the first, Anheliger's volume the last two
The most likely card if it goes the distance
30-27 Anheliger
The early shots are stuffed and he controls the fight throughout
Live if Koslow's first round comes up empty
29-28 Koslow
Early control plus a stolen second round
The long-shot Koslow decision path

Model and price

Chad Anheliger

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
62%
Fair odds
-163
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.61
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Steven Koslow

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
38%
Fair odds
+163
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.63
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Chad Anheliger

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.62 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Steven Koslow

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.64 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

The numbers below are our model's percentages and the fair prices they imply. Anheliger by decision at 28% (fair +257) is the most likely single outcome. Koslow by submission at 24% (fair +317) is the underdog's clearest path. The fight ending inside the distance at 66% (fair −194) is the model's strongest total view. Koslow by decision at 6% (fair +1567) is the outcome to avoid.

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A real lean built on Octagon experience, a round-by-round trend and archetype history, held at four because the underdog's one route runs straight through the favourite's biggest weakness. Lean: Chad Anheliger.

What backs the lean

  • Five UFC fights to one, all five of Anheliger's into the third round.

  • Output that climbs every round, against a man who has never won past the first.

  • Technical strikers have beaten submission artists 62.3% of the time across 355 fights.

  • Koslow's only UFC fight ended in a stoppage loss after he was reversed six times.

What limits it

  • Six first-round submission wins, and the first round is where Anheliger gets taken down most.

  • UFC opponents have landed 16 of 22 takedowns on him — Gibson held him down for most of their fight in this arena.

  • Six career submission losses, including Jose Johnson's choke in 2023.

  • Both men arrive off long layoffs, and Koslow's UFC evidence is a single fight.

Final Assessment

In roughly 62 of 100 simulations, Chad "The Monster" Anheliger wins the minutes that matter — most often by surviving the early grappling and out-landing Koslow over the second and third rounds, as he did against Grigoriou (28% decision), sometimes with a late stoppage once his output has built, the way he finished Strader in the third (22% KO/TKO), and sometimes with a guillotine on a tired entry (12% submission). Every one of those paths starts with reaching the second round with his back intact.

In the other 38, Steven Koslow does what he has done six times — gets the fight down early and finishes it inside the first round, against a man UFC opponents have taken down 16 times in 22 attempts (24% submission). The smaller paths are a tired Anheliger hurt late (8% KO/TKO) or an early-control decision that steals a round (6%); Koslow has never won a fight that went past the first round.

The data gives Anheliger the Octagon mileage, the late-round climb and the archetype history; it gives Koslow a perfect submission ledger aimed at the favourite's weakest area. We take Anheliger 62/38 at four out of ten, knowing the first five minutes belong to the underdog.

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