Julien Leblanc vs Gilbert Urbina (cancelled): bout cancelled

PRELIMS · MIDDLEWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Julien Leblanc — Middleweight fighter

Julien Leblanc

10W3L
Southpaw Finisher
Gilbert Urbina — Middleweight fighter

Gilbert Urbina

“The RGV Bad Boy”
8W4L
Muay Thai / Clinch

A 61-second knockout against a 2:22 submission

MiddleweightRogers Place, Edmonton, AlbertaOctober 17, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

This is a finish-heavy middleweight prelim between a Canadian still looking for his first UFC win and an Octagon veteran coming off the best night of his career. Julien Leblanc is 10-3 with eight finishes and has never been stopped by strikes, but his UFC debut in Winnipeg on April 18 lasted 2:22: Robert Valentin took him down once and finished a rear-naked choke. Gilbert "The RGV Bad Boy" Urbina brings five UFC bouts and a Performance of the Night stoppage of Vlasto Čepo in 61 seconds in Belgrade on August 1 — and a chin that failed in the first round against Charles Radtke and Uroš Medić. We make Urbina a 58% favourite and Leblanc 42%, at conviction 4/10. The Edmonton crowd keeps the Canadian live; it does not rewrite a 61-second knockout against a 2:22 submission.

Julien Leblanc
Attribute
Gilbert Urbina
34
Age
Urbina 4 years younger30
6'2" (74")
Height
+1" Urbina6'3" (75")
74.5"
Reach
75"
46.5"+3.5" Leblanc
Leg Reach
43"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Patenaude Martial Arts / Kill Cliff FC
Camp
Rio Grande Valley, Texas — TUF 29, Team Volkanovski
April 18, 2026 (Robert Valentin)
Octagon Debut
August 28, 2021 (Bryan Battle, TUF 29 final)
Southpaw finisher — 4 KO, 4 Sub (RNC ×3, triangle)
Fighting Style
Muay Thai / clinch, early takedowns, first-round finisher

Upstairs this is close to a wash; below the waist it is not. Urbina is an inch taller (6'3" to 6'2") and half an inch longer in reach (75" to 74.5"), while Leblanc carries 46.5" of leg reach against 43" — a 3.5-inch edge in the kicking plane that matters if he can keep this at range from southpaw. The age gap (34 to 30) is modest. The bigger asymmetry is Octagon experience: Urbina has five UFC nights and 22 minutes of cage time; Leblanc has two minutes and twenty-two seconds.

Venue Factor
Rogers Place is a Canadian Fight Night, not Julien Leblanc's building. He is from the Ottawa area, has fought outside Canada only once (LFA, 2021), and Edmonton will be louder for him than for a Texan — but it is not a hometown walkout the way Mike Malott's is on this card. Treat the crowd as a nudge on close rounds, not a first-minute weapon. The standard 30-foot Octagon gives a southpaw kicker room to circle, which suits Leblanc more than a man who wants the fence. Urbina fought 77 days before this card; Leblanc has been out since April 18.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Julien Leblanc in competition

Julien Leblanc

Pro Record
10-3-0
UFC Record
0-1
Streak
Lost his last — rear-naked choke, Robert Valentin, R1 2:22 (ended a five-fight win streak)
Finish Rate
80% (8 of 10 wins) — 4 KO/TKO, 4 submission
Avg Fight Time
2:22 (one UFC bout)
Chin · Never stopped by strikesSOS · RegionalSouthpaw finisher

Cleaner on paper, thinner in the Octagon. Leblanc reached the UFC at 10-2 on a five-fight regional win streak: decisions over Sallah Dekhissi (May 2023) and Chris Chapman (October 2023), a Round-2 body-kick-and-punches stoppage of Mark Kolker (June 2024), the Samourai MMA middleweight title when a doctor stopped Darian Weeks after the third round (March 2025), and a Round-2 rear-naked choke of Ryan Rohovich (November 2025). His ten wins split four knockouts, four submissions — three rear-naked chokes and a triangle — and two decisions, and he has never been stopped by strikes. Then Winnipeg: Valentin took him down once, controlled him for 1:42, out-landed him 7-4 and finished the choke at 2:22. He has not fought since.

Gilbert Urbina finishes Vlasto Čepo with ground strikes against the fence at UFC Belgrade, August 2026

Gilbert Urbina

Pro Record
8-4-0
UFC Record
2-3
Streak
Won his last — TKO (punches and elbows), Vlasto Čepo, R1 1:01 (Performance of the Night)
Finish Rate
63% (5 of 8 wins) — 3 KO/TKO, 2 submission
Avg Fight Time
4:24 (22:01 across five UFC bouts)
Chin · VulnerableSOS · UFCMuay Thai / clinch finisher

A 61-second reset on a chin that has already failed twice. Urbina reached the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter 29 and lost the middleweight final to Bryan Battle by Round-2 rear-naked choke in August 2021. He returned to stop Orion Cosce with a front kick and knees to the body in Round 2 in May 2023, then was stopped in Round 1 by Charles Radtke (4:47, February 2024) and by Uroš Medić (1:03, August 2025) — the second time after he had dropped Medić first. In Belgrade on August 1 he finished Vlasto Čepo with punches and elbows in 61 seconds for a Performance of the Night. His UFC ledger is 2-3; before the UFC he was 6-1, the lone loss a decision to Sean Brady in 2018. Brothers Elias and Hector Urbina also came through The Ultimate Fighter.

Julien Leblanc
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Gilbert Urbina
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Julien Leblancsignature weapons

Rear-Naked ChokeMontoyia Swilling (2015), Mike Kent (2017) and Ryan Rohovich at 4:19 of Round 2, November 2025
×3
Strikes (TKO)Elbows on Drayton Angus in 37 seconds (2017), a body kick and punches on Mark Kolker (Round 2, 2024), and a doctor stoppage of Darian Weeks after three rounds for the Samourai MMA title (2025)
×4
Triangle ChokeKevyn Thouin, Round 2, 2014 — his professional debut
×1

Gilbert Urbinasignature weapons

Punches & ElbowsVlasto Čepo in 61 seconds at UFC Belgrade, August 2026 (Performance of the Night), and Jared Perez in Round 1 (2014)
×2
Rear-Naked ChokeNoel Ligon (Round 1, 2017) and Anthony Tatum (Round 2, 2015)
×2
Front Kick & Body KneesOrion Cosce at 2:55 of Round 2, UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill, May 2023
×1

Julien Leblanc

L
Robert Valentin
SUB — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (2:22)
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott — Apr 18, 2026
W
Ryan Rohovich
SUB — Rear-naked choke
R2 (4:19)
Samourai MMA 17 — Nov 21, 2025
W
Darian Weeks
TKO — Doctor stoppage

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R3 (5:00)
Samourai MMA 13 — Mar 7, 2025 (middleweight title)
W
Mark Kolker
TKO — Body kick and punches
R2 (1:39)
Unified MMA 57 — Jun 14, 2024
W
Chris Chapman
Decision — Unanimous
R3 (5:00)
Unified MMA 53 — Oct 28, 2023
Pattern

Four wins in five, and the one loss is the only UFC bout. The four wins are the best stretch of his career: a unanimous decision over Chris Chapman, a Round-2 body-kick stoppage of Mark Kolker, the Samourai MMA title when a doctor stopped former UFC fighter Darian Weeks after three full rounds, and a Round-2 rear-naked choke of Ryan Rohovich. Two of the four went the full fifteen minutes — he wins late as well as early.

Gilbert Urbina

W
Vlasto Čepo
TKO — Punches and elbows

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (1:01)
UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez — Aug 1, 2026 (Performance of the Night)
L
Uroš Medić
KO — Punch

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (1:03)
UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez — Aug 9, 2025
L
Charles Radtke
TKO — Punches

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (4:47)
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov — Feb 3, 2024
W
Orion Cosce
TKO — Front kick and knees

Opponent context: ufc

R2 (2:55)
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill — May 20, 2023
L
Bryan Battle
SUB — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: prospect

R2 (2:15)
UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze — Aug 28, 2021 (TUF 29 final)
Pattern

Five UFC fights, zero decisions and never a third round. Two stoppages scored, two absorbed, one rear-naked choke suffered. The Čepo win is a genuine reset — a first-round stoppage, a bonus and his first win since May 2023 — but the two fights before it ended in Round 1 by knockout. He has scored three knockdowns and absorbed three in 22 minutes of Octagon time: dangerous in the first two minutes and available in the first two minutes.

Julien Leblanc

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Gilbert Urbina

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Leblanc's ten wins split four knockouts, four submissions and two decisions, and seven of his eight finishes came inside two rounds; Urbina's eight split three knockouts, two submissions and three decisions, with every finish inside two rounds. The most recent UFC results between them: Urbina stopped Čepo in 1:01, Medić stopped Urbina in 1:03, Valentin submitted Leblanc in 2:22. Three fights, three first-round endings — this is priced as a finish-heavy fight because the recent tape is finish-heavy.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorJulienGilbert
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)Regional — Samourai MMA middleweight champion (Darian Weeks, 2025); one UFC boutUFC — Five UFC opponents — Battle, Cosce, Radtke, Medić, Čepo; two first-round knockout losses
UFC sample0-12-3
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 0 veteran tier0 elite · 1 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter B (4 vs 0 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponentsRobert Valentin, Ryan Rohovich, Darian WeeksVlasto Čepo, Uroš Medić, Charles Radtke
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Julienfew UFC fights
0
Gilbert

Urbina lands 6.68 significant strikes per minute at 58% across five UFC bouts, offset by 48% defence and 4.72 absorbed. Leblanc's UFC striking is four landed in 2:22; his 48 leans on four career knockouts.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Julienfew UFC fights
0
Gilbertfew UFC fights

Urbina landed four of nine UFC takedowns, all in first rounds, and has faced one takedown attempt — Battle's, which landed and led to the choke. Leblanc owns four career submissions but was taken down and finished in his only UFC appearance.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Julienfew UFC fights
0
Gilbert

Five points, almost all of it UFC experience.

MetricJulienGilbert
UFC Avg Fight Time2:22 (1 bout)few UFC fights4:24 (5 bouts)
Prior UFC Bouts15
Days Since Last Fight182 (Apr 18)77 (Aug 1)
Finish Rate80% (8 of 10)63% (5 of 8)
Full 15-Minute Fights5 (last in 2025)2 (last in 2019)
UFC Round-1 Output4 landed (one 2:22 round)few UFC fights24.6 landed per opening round

Archetype Base Rate

Southpaw Regional Finisher 42%58% Muay Thai / Clinch Finisher

— · The lean rests on the matchup itself: five Octagon bouts and a 61-second Performance of the Night against a 2:22 debut submission, discounted for a chin that has failed twice in Round 1 and a Canadian crowd. The striking and grappling composites favour Urbina by six and four points.

Julien LeblancGilbert Urbina

Middleweight

· 46 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where a rank is unavailable, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable. Missing benchmarks are not estimated.

StatJulienJulien comparisonDiv avgGilbert comparisonGilbert
SLpM1.69
-2.53 vs avgfew UFC fights
4.22
+2.46 vs avg
6.68
Str Acc67%
+14.00 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
53%
+5.00 pp vs avg
58%
Str Def46%
-6.00 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
52%
-4.00 pp vs avg
48%
SApM2.96
-0.67 vs avgfew UFC fights
3.63
+1.09 vs avg
4.72
TD/150.00
-1.93 vs avgfew UFC fights
1.93
+0.80 vs avg
2.73
TD Acc—
Not availablefew UFC fights
—
Not available
44% (4 of 9)
TD Def0% (1 attempt)
Not availablefew UFC fights
—
Not availablefew UFC fights
0% (1 attempt)
Sub/150.00
-0.72 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.72
-0.04 vs avg
0.68
KD/150.00
-0.55 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.55
+1.49 vs avg
2.04
Prior UFC Bouts1
Not available
—
Not available
5
UFC Avg Fight Time2:22
Not availablefew UFC fights
—
Not available
4:24
Statistical Verdict
Urbina is the established UFC middleweight: well above the division in output and knockdowns, below it in defence and absorption. Leblanc's line is one 2:22 appearance, and the one fact in it that needs no larger sample is how it went — taken down, controlled, submitted.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1: single-fight sample for Julien Leblanc

Control Time per Round (sec)

Julien Leblanc

  • One UFC round, over at 2:22: Robert Valentin at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott in Winnipeg, April 18, 2026.
  • Leblanc landed 4 of 6 significant strikes, all at distance and two of them to the body; Valentin landed 7, completed his only takedown attempt and held 1:42 of control before the choke.
  • He has yet to see a second round in the UFC. Regionally, four of his eight finishes came in Round 2, and he has gone the full fifteen minutes five times.

Gilbert Urbina

  • Round 1 is the whole fighter: 24.6 significant strikes landed at 60.9% with 67 seconds of control and 0.4 knockdowns per opening round across five bouts — and 44% of those strikes land on the ground.
  • Round 2 (two bouts) halves the output to 12.0 at 46.2%; the ground share drops to zero and the leg-kick share triples, from 9.8% to 29.2%.
  • All four of his UFC takedowns came in first rounds (he went 0 of 2 in second rounds), and he has never reached a third round in the Octagon.
Critical Insight
Urbina's rounds say out loud what his fight log implies: everything he owns is in the first five minutes. He lands 24.6 at 60.9% with more than a minute of control and 0.4 knockdowns per opening round, then falls off — 12.0 landed at 46.2% in Round 2, no ground strikes and no takedowns, and a leg-kick share that triples as the head share drops. He has never seen a third round in the Octagon. If this is still standing at minute six, the favourite's best round has passed while a chin that has been knocked out twice in Round 1 stays in the pocket — and Leblanc's live paths, southpaw counters and the choke, get cheaper from there.

Strike targeting

Julien

Head
25%
Body
50%
Legs
25%

Gilbert

Head
67%
Body
20%
Legs
13%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

JulienGilbert
100%Distance48%
0%Clinch15%
0%Ground37%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceJulien owns it

Urbina has been out-landed at distance in the UFC, 81 to 71, and most of the damage in both knockout losses landed there — the range for Leblanc's southpaw kicks

Pocket / ExchangesEven

Three UFC knockdowns dealt and three absorbed by Urbina, against a man never stopped by strikes in thirteen fights

ClinchGilbert owns it

22 of 27 clinch strikes landed and the body knees that stopped Cosce; Leblanc landed all four of his UFC strikes at distance

GroundGilbert owns it

Four first-round takedowns and 54 ground strikes against a debut lost on the mat — offset by Battle's choke on Urbina and three on Leblanc's record

Path to Victory

Julien Leblanc

Survive the opening burst, keep it southpaw at kicking range, and make a Vulnerable chin pay — or take the back in a scramble the way Battle did.

Why they win
01
Urbina's chin is Vulnerable

Radtke in 4:47 and Medić in 1:03, both in Round 1 — the underdog's cleanest path.

02
Southpaw and 46.5" leg reach

Open-stance kicks at a 48% striking defence, from the range where Urbina has been out-landed in the UFC, 81 to 71.

03
Submission toolkit

Three rear-naked chokes and a triangle, aimed at a man Bryan Battle already choked out in the UFC.

04
80% finish rate

Eight of ten wins inside the distance, and never stopped by strikes in thirteen professional fights.

05
The deeper late rounds

Five fifteen-minute fights to Urbina's two, the latest a title win in 2025; Urbina has never reached a third round in the UFC.

06
Canadian crowd in Edmonton

Not a hometown walkout — Ottawa is home — but not neutral on a Canadian Fight Night.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Survive the opening storm

    Hands high, kicks long, no early trading on Urbina's terms — his output halves after Round 1.

  2. 2
    Southpaw calf and body kicks from 46.5"

    Make the orthodox man come to him; Kolker went out to a body kick.

  3. 3
    Counter the rush

    Radtke and Medić both found the chin in Round 1.

  4. 4
    If it hits the mat, hunt the back

    Valentin showed the template against him; Battle showed Urbina can be choked from there.

  5. 5
    Drag it to Round 3 in a Canadian building

    Contingency: if taken down early, wall-walk immediately — 1:42 of control is how the debut ended.

Path to Victory

Gilbert Urbina

Land the Čepo start: volume into the clinch, the body knees that stopped Cosce, and first-round takedowns before Leblanc finds the neck.

Why they win
01
The UFC experience edge

Five bouts against one 2:22 appearance.

02
The 61-second Čepo stoppage

His most recent fight, a Performance of the Night, in the round this fight is most likely to be decided.

03
Volume plus first-round wrestling

6.68 significant strikes per minute and four of nine takedowns landed, every one of them in Round 1.

04
Clinch and ground damage

22 of 27 clinch strikes and 54 ground strikes landed across five UFC bouts; Cosce went out to body knees.

05
Youth and height

Thirty against thirty-four, and an inch taller on a 75" frame.

06
Turnaround

Seventy-seven days since his last fight, against a six-month layoff after a submission loss.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Start like Belgrade

    The first ninety seconds are his highest-value minutes on the card.

  2. 2
    Clinch with the head up

    Knees and ground strikes finished Cosce and Čepo; a lowered head finished Battle.

  3. 3
    Wrestle early

    All four UFC takedowns came in Round 1 — force Leblanc to sprawl before the southpaw read arrives.

  4. 4
    Do not stand at range to prove the chin is fixed

    Radtke and Medić did most of their damage there.

  5. 5
    If Round 1 ends upright, grind Round 2

    Control time tests a man who has never seen a second UFC round. Contingency: if hurt, clinch without diving on a neck — four career submissions wait in a scramble.

Danger Zone

How Julien Leblanc loses

  • Čepo 2.0 — punches and elbows in the first minute, the fight over before southpaw geometry exists.

  • Urbina's first-round takedowns land, and a debut that already failed a grappling test fails a harder one.

  • He respects the power too much, cedes the centre, and loses a 29-28 he was built to steal in Edmonton.

Danger Zone

How Gilbert Urbina loses

  • He rushes, Leblanc times the southpaw counter, and the Radtke/Medić pattern repeats in Alberta.

  • He shoots into a front headlock or gives up his back, and Battle's rear-naked choke becomes Leblanc's fourth.

  • The first burst misses, Round 3 arrives, and a Canadian crowd takes a close card from a man who has never fought a third round in the UFC.

Why 58 is not 70

The Chin Is the Price of the Favourite

Urbina is the correct favourite because of experience and recency. He is 58% rather than 70% because of the chin. Medić needed 63 seconds — after Urbina had dropped him first. Radtke needed 4:47. Čepo lasted 61 seconds the other way. A three-round fight with that ledger is a coin-flip in the first five minutes even when the model is not.

3 / 3
knockdowns dealt / absorbed by Urbina in 22 UFC minutes
Do not judge him by the zeros

2:22 Is Not a Style; It Is a Result

Leblanc's UFC line reads like a grappler with no offence. He is not: he is a 10-3 finisher who lost a grappling exchange on debut, with four career submissions behind those zeros. The debut still counts — the first man to take him down in the UFC submitted him, and Urbina lands his takedowns in first rounds.

2:22
Leblanc's entire UFC career so far
Where the fight changes hands

Front-Loaded Finishers, Uneven Late Rounds

Seven of Leblanc's eight finishes came inside two rounds; all five of Urbina's did. The difference is what happens after that. Urbina has fought fifteen minutes twice, the last time in 2019, and never past Round 2 in the UFC. Leblanc has done it five times, most recently in a title win. The earlier this ends, the more it looks like the favourite's fight.

5 vs 2
full fifteen-minute fights, Leblanc vs Urbina
A split physical

Orthodox Height versus Southpaw Legs

Upstairs, 75 inches of height and reach against 74 and 74.5 is close to a wash. The kicking plane is not: 46.5 inches of leg reach against 43. In a fight that should be decided early, the upper frame usually gets the first vote. If it becomes a kicking match in Round 2, the legs get a vote they did not have in minute one.

+3.5"
Leblanc leg-reach edge
Five UFC names versus four Canadian regionals

Strength of Schedule, Qualitatively

Urbina's last five opponents are all UFC fighters. Leblanc's are Valentin plus four regional opponents, one of them former UFC middleweight Darian Weeks. That gap is the spine of the lean. The offset is that Urbina's UFC opposition also stopped him twice, which is why 42 is not a courtesy.

The Five-Round Clock

Julien Leblanc danger windowGilbert Urbina danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Urbina's detonation window — and his graveyard

Čepo went out in 1:01; Medić stopped Urbina in 1:03 after being dropped; Leblanc was submitted in 2:22. All four of Urbina's UFC takedowns came in first rounds. The highest-variance round in the fight — coloured Urbina because his knockout bucket is the largest single outcome, with both men able to lose it before the first horn.

Critical Insight
A front-loaded clock with a late Canadian leak. Urbina's chances peak in the opening ninety seconds and decay every minute the chin stays in the pocket; Leblanc's accrue if he is still standing, and they include a submission path Battle already proved. If Round 3 starts with both men upright, the underdog is live in a way the headline split does not advertise.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Urbina is favoured on experience and recency — five UFC fights and a 61-second Performance of the Night against a debut that ended in a rear-naked choke — not on a large composite gap.

2

His chin is the underdog's door: Radtke and Medić both stopped him in Round 1, and Leblanc has never been stopped by strikes.

3

Expect a finish. Most simulated fights end inside the distance, with an Urbina knockout the single likeliest result — and the longer it goes, the more it tilts toward the man who has actually fought third rounds.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Leblanc KO/TKO — 18%Leblanc Submission — 14%Leblanc Decision — 10%Urbina KO/TKO — 32%Urbina Decision — 16%Urbina Submission — 10%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Julien Leblanc gold · Gilbert Urbina orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

UFC experience

Five bouts against one 2:22 appearance. The largest single reason Urbina is favoured — an experience edge rather than a rate comparison.

Recency: 1:01 against 2:22

A Performance of the Night stoppage of Čepo on August 1 against a rear-naked choke loss to Valentin on April 18. The most recent tape in both corners points to an early finish; only one of those finishes belongs to the man fighting on October 17.

The Vulnerable chin

Radtke 4:47 and Medić 1:03, both Round 1, and three knockdowns absorbed in 22 UFC minutes. Leblanc's 18% knockout share is priced in full, and it is why conviction stays at four.

First-round wrestling into a failed debut sprawl

Four of nine takedowns landed, all in opening rounds, aimed at a man whose first UFC takedown became 1:42 of control and a choke.

Late rounds, legs and the Battle overlap

Leblanc has gone fifteen minutes five times to Urbina's two, owns 3.5 inches of leg reach, and three of his four submissions are rear-naked chokes — the hold Battle used on Urbina. That is a live 14%.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Belgrade Replay

The Čepo start lands: volume into the clinch, body knees or ground strikes before southpaw geometry exists. Urbina's single most probable path, and much of it resolves inside the first round.

Scripted outcomes for Julien Leblanc vs Gilbert Urbina — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Julien Leblanc win probability
0%
18%
10%
14%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Priced in full, not a courtesy. Radtke needed 4:47 and Medić 63 seconds; a southpaw counter into a Vulnerable chin is the underdog's cleanest path.

  • The Edmonton-and-late-rounds bucket. Five fifteen-minute fights to Urbina's two, but only two decision wins — small, live, not the side to hunt.

  • The Battle overlap: Urbina has been rear-naked choked in the UFC, and three of Leblanc's four submissions are rear-naked chokes, the latest in November 2025.

Gilbert Urbina win probability
0%
32%
16%
10%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • The largest single bucket and the spine of the lean — Čepo in 1:01, Cosce to body knees, 6.68 landed per minute against a man with 2:22 of UFC experience. Much of it resolves inside the first round.

  • The control path if the early finish misses: first-round takedowns and a volume edge. He has three career decision wins, none in the UFC.

  • Secondary but real — two career rear-naked chokes into a man submitted after the only UFC takedown he has faced. A scramble outcome behind the wrestling, not the hunted path.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Gilbert
R2
Gilbert
R3
Julien
29-28 Urbina
Volume and a first-round takedown, a competitive second, and a third the crowd wants
The likeliest card if it reaches the judges — the 16% decision bucket
29-28 Leblanc
Southpaw kicks take Round 2, the fresher man takes Round 3
The 10% decision bucket — live if the first burst misses
30-27 Urbina
Early wrestling plus control in Round 2, no drama
Requires his takedowns to land beyond Round 1 for the first time in the UFC

Model and price

Julien Leblanc

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
42%
Fair odds
+138
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.38
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
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Gilbert Urbina

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
58%
Fair odds
-138
Reference quote
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Fair decimal odds
1.72
Estimated EV
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Edge vs no-vig market
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EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Julien Leblanc

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.39 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Gilbert Urbina

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.73 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

The numbers below are our model's percentages and the fair prices they imply. Fight does NOT go the distance is the structural lean at 74% (fair −285) — a 61-second knockout against a 2:22 submission, two Round-1 knockout losses on the favourite's ledger, and 74 of 100 simulations ending inside the distance. Urbina by KO/TKO at 32% (fair +213) is the side the tape just printed in Belgrade. The live underdog tickets are Leblanc by KO/TKO at 18% (fair +456) — the chin — and Leblanc by submission at 14% (fair +614) — the Battle overlap. Urbina inside the distance is 42% (fair +138). Avoid Leblanc by decision at 10% (fair +900) unless the price is generous; his path is a finish or it is probably Urbina's wrestling.

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A real lean built on experience and recency, capped because the favourite's chin has failed twice in Round 1, the underdog is a Canadian on a Canadian card, and his UFC résumé is a single 2:22 night that says little about him. The composite gap is five points; the rest of the lean is judgment. Lean: Gilbert Urbina.

What backs the lean

  • Five UFC bouts against one 2:22 appearance.

  • Performance of the Night stoppage of Čepo in 1:01, August 1, 2026.

  • 6.68 significant strikes per minute and first-round takedowns — two offensive doors.

  • Leblanc was taken down and submitted in 2:22 on debut, and returns from a six-month layoff.

What limits it

  • Urbina's chin: Radtke R1 4:47, Medić R1 1:03, three knockdowns absorbed in 22 UFC minutes.

  • Southpaw kicks and 3.5 inches of leg reach into 48% striking defence.

  • Three rear-naked chokes on Leblanc's record, against a man Battle choked out.

  • Urbina has never reached a third round in the UFC; Leblanc has fought fifteen minutes five times, and the crowd is his.

Final Assessment

In roughly 58 of 100 simulations, Gilbert "The RGV Bad Boy" Urbina ends this the way he ended Belgrade, or early enough that his wrestling does the rest — most often with an opening burst of volume, body knees and ground strikes (32% KO/TKO), sometimes by banking first-round takedowns and output into a card (16% decision), and sometimes by finding the neck of a man who already gave it up to Robert Valentin (10% submission). Every one of those paths is cleaner if the first two minutes belong to him.

In the other 42, Julien Leblanc makes the chin tax due — a southpaw counter into a Round-1 knockout ledger that already includes Radtke and Medić (18% KO/TKO), a rear-naked choke of the kind Battle already landed on Urbina (14% submission), or a close Canadian decision if both men are upright in Round 3, where only one of them has been in years (10%). He is not a hometown fighter; he is a Canadian on a Canadian Fight Night, six months after a 2:22 debut, against a man who just stopped someone in sixty-one seconds.

The data gives Urbina the experience, the recency, the volume and the early takedowns; it gives Leblanc the chin to aim at, the southpaw kicks, the choke, the deeper late rounds and a crowd that will not be for the Texan. We take Urbina 58/42 at four out of ten, and we will not fade a first-round finish in either direction.

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