Ty Miller vs Billy Ray Goff
Welterweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Saturday, August 8, 2026 • Meta APEX, Las Vegas (25-foot Octagon)
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Ty Miller
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Billy Ray Goff
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Ty Miller
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Adam Fugitt | W | KO/TKO (R1, 4:59) |
| 2025-08-12 | Jimmy Drago | W | Decision (Unanimous) — DWCS (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-06 | Arthur Barros | NC | No Contest (Accidental Eye Poke) — LFA 198 (R1, 3:30) |
| 2024-06-22 | Ryan Charlebois | W | KO/TKO (R1, 0:45) |
| 2024-03-30 | Miguel Tovar | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Billy Ray Goff
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-31 | Ramiz Brahimaj | L | Submission (Guillotine) (R1, 3:16) |
| 2024-05-11 | Trey Waters | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-26 | Yusaku Kinoshita | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:49) |
| 2022-08-02 | Shimon Smotritsky | W | KO/TKO (DWCS) (R1, 3:37) |
| 2022-04-01 | Justin Sumter | W | KO/TKO (R2, 2:13) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Estimate-grade average of Striking Composite (~58 vs ~60) and Grappling Composite (~35 vs ~42). Miller's striking rates are a 1-fight SMALL SAMPLE (🔴); Goff's ~5 UFC bouts sit in the 🟡/🟢 Moderate/Optimal band. Grappling edge tilts Goff; length and power keep Miller's striking profile live.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Ty Miller Key Advantages
Miller owns a real welterweight size edge — four inches taller and five inches longer than Goff (6'2"/77" vs 5'10"/72"). That frame lets him jab, kick, and pressure from ranges Goff has to cover. Against a high-output wrestle-boxer who wants to crowd and fire, length is the first tool that keeps exchanges on Miller's terms. SMALL SAMPLE caveat: the Octagon proof is one UFC night, but the physical mismatch does not need a large sample to matter.
Undefeated at 7-0-0 (1 NC) with three knockouts and a first-round TKO of Adam Fugitt in his UFC debut, Miller carries finishing equity that Goff must respect early. Power plus athleticism is the prospect package — if he times Goff coming in behind volume, one clean sequence can end a 🟡/🟢 veteran's night. Finish-heavy early patterns (R1 KO/TKO cluster) define his most dangerous window.
Miller's one-fight UFC line shows 65% striking defense and 75% takedown defense — useful signals, not settled truth. Label every rate SMALL SAMPLE. If those marks hold even halfway against Goff's 7.51 SLpM volume, Miller can bank cleaner minutes behind the longer jab while stuffing the wrestle-boxer entries that define Goff's path.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Goff's proven Octagon output (7.51 SLpM, 46% accuracy) can crowd the longer man if Miller stays flat-footed. A wrestle-boxer who chains clinch entries and body work can erase the reach gap and drag Miller into a phone-booth fight where experience matters more than frame. One-fight defensive numbers will not save a prospect who gets stuck on the fence for nine minutes.
Goff's 1.75 TD/15 and higher grappling composite (~42 vs ~35) give him a round-stealing path Miller has barely been tested against in the UFC. Even low-accuracy shots (16% TDAcc) force fence time and scoring optics. If Miller's 75% TDD is sample noise, Goff's experience edge becomes the whole fight.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Establish the 77" reach immediately — jab, teep, and outside kick — then punish Goff as he closes. Miller should not stand and trade pocket volume with a higher-output wrestle-boxer; he should make Goff pay tolls for every step inside. Early power sequences remain live if Goff overcommits on the rush.
Prioritize hip-heaviness on Goff's level changes and circle off the fence in the 25-foot APEX cage. Every stuffed takedown returns the fight to the length battle Miller wants. Keep the fight standing and long for fifteen minutes and the physical edge compounds on the cards.
🚀 Billy Ray Goff Key Advantages
Goff is the data-richer half of this pairing (🟡/🟢). Roughly five UFC bouts give him settled pace, cage IQ, and a true volume profile — 7.51 SLpM at 46% accuracy — while Miller is still a 🔴 one-fight projection. Experience shows in dirty-boxing exchanges and late-round composure that prospects often lack.
High-output striking plus takedown attempts create a multi-layer offense Miller has not faced over a deep UFC sample. Even at 16% TD accuracy, the threat changes Miller's kick selection and stance. Goff's seven career KOs prove he can finish when he gets into the pocket — length only helps Miller if he keeps Goff on the outside.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Closing the gap on a longer power athlete is how nights end early. Goff's recent form includes a first-round guillotine loss to Brahimaj — proof the early minutes are volatile. If he rushes volume without head movement, Miller's R1 finishing pattern is the exact trap.
If Goff cannot consistently close distance, Miller's jab and kicks bank rounds in open space. A decision path for Goff requires clinch minutes and fence pressure; failing that, the length mismatch decides a quiet UD the other way.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Goff should close behind feints, not straight lines — get to the body, dirty box, and mix in level changes so Miller cannot set the long jab. The win condition is making this a short-range volume fight where UFC experience outweighs prospect athleticism.
Respect Miller's R1 finishing equity, then drag the fight into Rounds 2–3 where output and wrestling layers score. Goff's path is less about one shot and more about stacking minutes — the Moderate/Optimal data edge shows best over a full 15:00.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
Meta APEX's 25-foot Octagon cuts five feet off the standard cage — a structural nudge toward the closer. That helps Goff's wrestle-boxer crowding game more than Miller's length-first kickboxing, because there is less runway to reset the jab. Miller can still make open-space sequences work if he circles off the fence, but every failed exit hands Goff the pocket exchanges where volume and experience matter. Cage size is a quiet thumb on the scale for the dog.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Accuracy of our Picks framing first: Miller is 🔴 High Risk (1 UFC bout — SMALL SAMPLE); Goff is 🟡/🟢 with ~5 UFC fights (Moderate approaching Optimal). Treat Miller's 7.16 SLpM / 39% accuracy / 65% defense as directional only. The settled contrast is physical and stylistic — Miller's length and power athleticism versus Goff's higher-confidence volume (7.51 SLpM, 46% accuracy) and wrestle-boxer layer (1.75 TD/15). Striking composites are close (~58 vs ~60); grappling tilts Goff (~35 vs ~42). The lean is Miller's frame and finishing threat, capped by sample thinness.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three swing factors decide this. First, can Miller keep Goff at the end of the 77" reach for three rounds, or does Goff successfully crowd and chain? Second, does Miller's early power window (finish-heavy R1 history) land before Goff's volume stacks minutes? Third, wrestling layer — even low- percentage shots from Goff can steal optics if Miller's 75% TDD is SMALL SAMPLE noise. Optimal Setup would require deeper Miller data; Moderate Risk is the honest label for betting this lean.
🏁Final Prediction
The single most likely path is Miller by decision (30%) — length and cleaner minutes over three rounds if he stuffs entries. Miller by KO/TKO (27%) covers the early power window that already showed in the Fugitt debut. Goff's best routes are decision (22%) via volume/wrestling optics and KO/TKO (18%) if he crowds and lands in the pocket. Submissions stay token (1% Miller / 2% Goff) — neither is a submission hunter here. Soft 58/42 lean; thin sample caps the price.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 30% | fair ~+233 — length banking minutes
GOOD VALUE
Model: 27% | early power vs a crowding wrestle-boxer
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 42% — live if he crowds; compare to BetOnline
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • SMALL SAMPLE on Miller – 🔴 1 UFC bout means every rate can swing; do not overfit 7.16 SLpM / 65% StrDef into a large wager.
- • Goff experience is the dog's case – 🟡/🟢 ~5 UFC fights, higher volume, and a wrestling layer justify keeping 42% live against prospect hype.
- • Size the 58/42 lean small – Accuracy of our Picks is Moderate Risk overall; Optimal Setup would need a deeper Miller sample.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Ty Miller
Early power window — finish-heavy R1 pattern
Primary path — length banks cleaner minutes
Token — zero career submission wins
💥Outcome Distribution - Billy Ray Goff
Best path — crowd, chain wrestling optics, out-work
Pocket KO if he closes and lands volume clean
Token scramble variance — not a primary path
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Billy Ray Goff
- • Crowd the length: Feint, clinch, and erase the 5" reach gap.
- • Chain wrestling: 1.75 TD/15 threat steals optics even at low accuracy.
- • Deep water: Survive R1 power and win R2–R3 on volume/experience.
🎯Primary Path - Ty Miller
- • Jab long: Weaponize 6'2"/77" and punish entries.
- • Early power: Highest KO equity in R1 before Goff settles.
- • Stuff & reset: Deny TD optics; keep fights in open space.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Soft lean — Miller's 🔴 1-fight sample caps conviction even with Goff's deeper 🟡/🟢 data
✅Supporting Factors
- • Real length/frame edge (6'2"/77" vs 5'10"/72")
- • Undefeated power athlete with R1 UFC finish already
- • Defensive snapshot (65% StrDef / 75% TDD) — SMALL SAMPLE but directionally good
- • Decision path is clean if he keeps Goff outside
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Miller 🔴 High Risk — 1 UFC bout caps Accuracy of our Picks
- • Goff 🟡/🟢 volume + wrestling layer can erase length
- • Small APEX cage helps the closer more than the jabber
- • Prospect vs experience is inherently volatile
🏁Executive Summary
Welterweight prospect vs experienced Octagon hand: Ty Miller brings undefeated length and power athleticism; Billy Ray Goff brings higher-confidence volume, a wrestle-boxer layer, and ~5 UFC fights. Accuracy of our Picks is Moderate Risk overall — Optimal Setup favors Goff's deeper sample, while Miller's entire UFC rate sheet is a 🔴 SMALL SAMPLE. Across 100 sims, roughly 58 lean Miller (about 30 decision / 27 KO/TKO / 1 sub) and 42 lean Goff (about 22 decision / 18 KO/TKO / 2 sub). The fight is length and power versus volume and experience.
Prediction: Ty Miller at 58% — a soft lean, not a hammer. Make Goff pay for every step inside, stuff the level changes, and the physical edge should bank minutes. Respect the dog: Goff's output and UFC IQ keep 42% very live if this becomes a pocket war in the small APEX cage. Thin sample caps the lean — price it small.