UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 — Las Vegas

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 Poster - UFC Fight Analytics
Saturday, June 20, 2026
Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Meta APEX
completed11 Fights🏆 0 Title Fights
Main Card: Paramount+
Prelims: Paramount+
Start Time: 5:00 PM ET
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Times are estimated; Early Prelims ~2h, Prelims ~2h, Main Card ~2h. Subject to change.
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Las Vegas (PT shown)
Early
11:00 AM
Prelims
1:00 PM
Main
2:00 PM
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Eastern US/Canada
Early
2:00 PM
Prelims
3:00 PM
Main
5:00 PM
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United Kingdom / Ireland
Early
7:00 PM
Prelims
8:00 PM
Main
10:00 PM
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Central Europe
Early
8:00 PM
Prelims
9:00 PM
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11:00 PM
AEST
Australia (East)
Early
6:00 AM (Sun)
Prelims
7:00 AM (Sun)
Main
9:00 AM (Sun)
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UFC Apex: Full Card Analytics & Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 — Meta APEX, Las Vegas — June 20, 2026

The UFC returns to the Meta APEX with an explosive flyweight main event: Manel Kape (22-7) meets former Rizin and UFC title challenger Kyoji Horiguchi (36-5) over five rounds on Paramount+. Both bring championship-level resumes — expect pace, counters and non-stop scrambles at 125 pounds.

The main card also features Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos, Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil, Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling, and Giga Chikadze vs. Vinicius Oliveira, plus six prelims. Model probabilities, community picks and odds tooling cover every bout below.

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What is UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2?

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 is an MMA event on June 20, 2026, at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The five-round flyweight main event pits Manel Kape (22-7) against Kyoji Horiguchi (36-5). The card streams on Paramount+ with prelims leading into the main card on the same platform.

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What are the predictions for Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi?

The flyweight main event pairs two veterans with elite striking and fight IQ — small margins and round-by-round adjustments will matter. Every fight on the card below includes AI-generated win probabilities, best available odds where loaded, and detailed analytics to support informed picks.

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How to watch UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 and what time does it start?

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 takes place Saturday, June 20, 2026. Main card at 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT) on Paramount+, with prelims roughly two hours earlier on Paramount+. Meta APEX in Las Vegas hosts the event.

Main Event — Flyweight

Kape vs. Horiguchi

Portuguese finisher Manel Kape (22-7) faces Kyoji Horiguchi (36-5), one of the most decorated lighter-weight fighters of his era. Five rounds at the Apex — elite timing vs. championship patience.

Co-Main — Bantamweight

Rosa vs. Santos

Karol Rosa (19-7) and Luana Santos (10-2) collide at 135 — volume and clinch work vs. athletic pressure in a pivotal rankings bout.

Undercard Spotlight

Chikadze vs. Oliveira

Giga Chikadze (15-6) meets Vinicius Oliveira (23-4) in a featherweight striker's clash with serious finishing upside — plus Cutelaba vs. Stirling and prospect-heavy prelims.

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.

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High Risk (**)

<3 UFC Bouts

Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.

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Moderate Risk (*)

3-4 UFC Bouts

Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.

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Optimal Data

5+ UFC Bouts

Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.

Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 Fights, Analytics & Predictions

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We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highest‑value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).

🏆 Main eventEstablished UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Manel Kape

Manel Kape

22-7-0

Flyweight
5 Rounds

Model estimate

62%VS38%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Kyoji Horiguchi

Kyoji Horiguchi

36-5-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
⭐ Co-MainEstablished UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Karol Rosa

Karol Rosa

19-7-0

Bantamweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

Preview

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Luana Santos

Luana Santos

10-2-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Established UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Christian Rodriguez

Christian Rodriguez

12-4-0

Featherweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

Preview

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Hyder Amil

Hyder Amil

11-2-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Developing UFC sample (3–4 bouts)
Ion Cutelaba

Ion Cutelaba

20-11-1

Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

Preview

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Navajo Stirling

Navajo Stirling

9-0-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Established UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Farid Basharat

Farid Basharat

15-0-0

Bantamweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

Preview

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Ethyn Ewing

Ethyn Ewing

10-2-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Established UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Vinicius Oliveira

Vinicius Oliveira

23-4-0

Featherweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

Preview

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Andre Fili

Andre Fili

25-13-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Developing UFC sample (3–4 bouts)
André Lima

André Lima

11-0-0

Flyweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

Preview

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Kevin Borjas

Kevin Borjas

10-5-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Developing UFC sample (3–4 bouts)
Bia Mesquita

Bia Mesquita

7-0-0

Bantamweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

Preview

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Melissa Mullins

Melissa Mullins

7-2-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Established UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Mitch Raposo

Mitch Raposo

10-3-0

Flyweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

Preview

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Allan Nascimento

Allan Nascimento

22-6-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Limited UFC sample (<3 bouts)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

Melsik Baghdasaryan

8-3-0

Featherweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

Preview

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Murtazali Magomedov

Murtazali Magomedov

10-0-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Established UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Michael Aswell Jr.

Michael Aswell Jr.

11-4-0

Featherweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

Preview

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Gaston Bolaños

Gaston Bolaños

8-5-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

FightFighter AModel Prob AMarket Odds AImplied Prob AFighter BModel Prob BMarket Odds BImplied Prob BValue
Kape vs Horiguchi🟢Manel Kape62%N/A—Kyoji Horiguchi38%N/A—
Kape +62.0%Volume supremacy (+37% SLpM), iron chin (12-0 KD), southpaw reach advantage
Rosa vs Santos🟢Karol RosaForecast pendingN/A—Luana SantosForecast pendingN/A—
Forecast pending
Rodriguez vs Amil🟢Christian RodriguezForecast pendingN/A—Hyder AmilForecast pendingN/A—
Forecast pending
Cutelaba vs Stirling🟡Ion CutelabaForecast pendingN/A—Navajo StirlingForecast pendingN/A—
Forecast pending
Basharat vs Ewing🟢Farid BasharatForecast pendingN/A—Ethyn EwingForecast pendingN/A—
Forecast pending
Oliveira vs Fili🟢Vinicius OliveiraForecast pendingN/A—Andre FiliForecast pendingN/A—
Forecast pending
Lima vs Borjas🟡André LimaForecast pendingN/A—Kevin BorjasForecast pendingN/A—
Forecast pending
Mesquita vs Mullins🟡Bia MesquitaForecast pendingN/A—Melissa MullinsForecast pendingN/A—
Forecast pending
Raposo vs Nascimento🟢Mitch RaposoForecast pendingN/A—Allan NascimentoForecast pendingN/A—
Forecast pending
Jr. vs Bolaños🟢Michael Aswell Jr.Forecast pendingN/A—Gaston BolañosForecast pendingN/A—
Forecast pending

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