Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison
Heavyweight Bout • UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Saturday, July 11, 2026 • T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
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Gable Steveson
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Elisha Ellison
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Gable Steveson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-19 | Hugo Lezama | W | TKO (Punches) (R1, 3:50) |
| 2025-11-23 | Kevin Hein | W | KO (Punch) (R1, 0:24) |
| 2025-09-12 | Braden Peterson | W | TKO (Punches) (R1, 1:38) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Elisha Ellison
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | Brando Pericic | L | KO/TKO (Punches from Guard) (R1, 1:55) |
| 2025 | Regional Opponent | W | KO/TKO (R1, —) |
| 2024 | Regional Opponent | W | KO/TKO (R1, —) |
| 2024 | Regional Opponent | W | Submission (R1, —) |
| 2023 | Regional Opponent | W | KO/TKO (R1, —) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (46.0 vs 43.0) and Grappling Composite (95.0 vs 24.0). All composites are clearly-labeled ESTIMATES — neither fighter has a DB-computed composite. The gap is driven almost entirely by Steveson's generational wrestling pedigree.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Gable Steveson Key Advantages
This is the central, almost comically lopsided matchup: a 2020 Olympic gold medalist (125 kg freestyle) and two-time NCAA Division I champion against a fighter whose only elite-level film shows him being finished on his back. Steveson can dictate where the fight happens essentially at will. Ellison has shown no ability to keep it standing against a real wrestler — because he has never had to, and the one time the level rose, he was on the mat in under two minutes. Against zero documented takedown defense, the level change should be high-percentage, and once it lands Ellison is in the exact position that already got him finished once.
The subtle point that makes this near-airtight: Steveson is 3-0 with three first-round knockouts by strikes, not chokes — including a 24-second KO of Kevin Hein. He has neutralized Ellison's only path (a standup power-puncher's chance) by also being a knockout artist. Ellison cannot simply "keep it standing and bang" to safety, because Steveson wins that exchange too — and Ellison has the worse chin on record (one verified KO loss vs. Steveson's zero). Striking is the one phase where Ellison is closest to competitive, yet even there he is not clearly ahead — and Steveson controls whether the fight stays standing at all.
Ellison's lone UFC loss is a literal instruction manual: get him down, posture in his guard, rain strikes. Brando Pericic — a far less credentialed grappler than Steveson — executed it in 1:55 (punches to the head from guard). Steveson's wrestling makes that exact sequence not just possible but probable, and likely faster. Heavyweight math favors him twice over: the division baseline rewards both wrestling (TD/15 1.97) and power (KD avg 1.14), and Steveson is elite-to-good in both while Ellison is one-dimensional in only the second. Reported work with Jon Jones, boxing under Greg Johnson, and jiu-jitsu with Gordon Ryan is sanding his rough edges.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The single live upset path: Steveson overcommits to striking to please the crowd, gets caught by an Ellison overhand in the first exchange, and his untested chin fails. He has roughly six minutes of pro cage time, has never been hit hard, never been past R1, and never faced a UFC-level heavyweight — so the chin is a genuine unknown. With small heavyweight gloves and Ellison's legitimate one-punch pop, a single clean shot in the opening exchange can rewrite the night before the wrestling phase ever begins.
Cage rust or debut nerves on the sport's biggest stage (a McGregor-headlined PPV) could cause uncharacteristic hesitation in the first 60 seconds — Ellison's only dangerous window. A sloppy, telegraphed shot against a possibly longer man risks a knee or uppercut on the entry, dragging Steveson into a scramble he has never experienced. MMA is not freestyle wrestling: a wild early Ellison flurry could expose defensive holes that no opponent has yet had the chance to find, since none of his three pro foes lasted long enough to test them.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Don't trade wildly early; weather Ellison's one dangerous burst in the opening 45 seconds, then change levels and put him where the tape says he breaks — on his back. A couple of stiff jabs and crosses serve as a deterrent, forcing Ellison to respect the standup and opening the level change. Every second that passes favors Steveson, so the priority is surviving the lone high-variance window and then transitioning to the phase Ellison has no answer for.
Body-lock or double-leg against the fence, drive to the mat, posture up in guard, and replicate the Pericic finish with heavier, more controlled ground-and-pound. Hunt the developing submission if the GnP is defended (Gordon Ryan influence), but the KO from top is the higher-percentage exit given his finishing history. Crucially, don't gas chasing the finish — his cardio is unproven, so a measured top-control grind toward a stoppage beats a frantic swarm if the early finish doesn't come.
🚀 Elisha Ellison Key Advantages
The great equalizer, and his only real one. Ellison has four first-round KO wins and legitimate one-punch pop. At heavyweight, with small gloves, anyone can be knocked out — including a 3-fight novice with an unproven chin. If Ellison lands flush in the first 45 seconds before Steveson changes levels, none of the wrestling matters. There may even be a thin length edge: if his UFC height/reach listing is accurate, he is the longer man and can meet level changes with knees and uppercuts on the entry and frame on the fence. This is a real, if narrow, path.
Steveson has roughly six minutes of pro cage time, has never been hit hard, never been past R1, and never faced a UFC-level heavyweight. MMA is not freestyle wrestling — strikes change everything. A wild early Ellison flurry could expose defensive holes that no opponent has had the chance to find; the "untested chin" cuts both ways. As a heavy underdog walking into a hype-train debut, Ellison carries zero pressure and one job: swing for the fences early. Desperation plus power is the classic upset recipe, and he is exactly the kind of regional banger who occasionally derails a prospect.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The most probable outcome in the building: the Pericic fight run back against a far better wrestler — takedown inside 90 seconds, posture in guard, ground-and-pound stoppage. Once Steveson clinches, the fight may never return to the feet, turning into a long, hopeless grind toward a finish. Ellison has shown no Plan B if his early power doesn't land, no evidence he can defend a takedown, and no evidence he can survive on bottom against an elite grappler. This is the exact geometry that already finished him once.
Even if Ellison's early power shot misses and the fight briefly stays standing, there is no safe striking refuge: Steveson's power is real (a 24-second KO on record) and Ellison's chin has already failed once at this level. He can be out-struck standing as well as out-wrestled on the mat. And if this fight somehow reached deep water, Ellison would be the one expending energy defending takedowns and fighting off bottom — the most exhausting place to be — against an Olympic wrestler, with conditioning neither man has ever had to use past Round 1.
📋 Likely Gameplan
His only viable plan: load up in the first minute and try to land the fight-ending shot before the wrestling starts. Every second that passes favors Steveson. If he is the longer man, he should use length and frames on the fence — meeting the level change with knees and underhooks and making Steveson pay for every entry. Bluntly, his win condition is a single clean shot in the opening exchange, not a strategic 15-minute battle he has no tools to win.
Keep the fight in open space where his power lives — the clinch is death, so stay off the cage and circle. If taken down, stand up immediately: though there is little evidence he can, his only mat survival is explosive scrambles back to the feet, not guard-playing (where he was already finished). Front-load everything into the first 45-second window and pray for the puncher's chance, because the longer the fight lasts the more inevitable the takedown-to-finish becomes.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️The Credential Gap Is the Story
Most analyses turn on subtle statistical deviations; this one turns on a credential so large it overwhelms the missing data. Olympic gold at 125 kg freestyle is not a number we can plug into a composite — it is a ceiling indicator that historically translates to dominant MMA control wrestling. When the only verified MMA data point on the opponent's side is "finished on his back via ground strikes," the pattern recognition is trivial: elite top wrestler + opponent who folds on bottom = takedown-to-finish. This is a 3-round heavyweight squash-match audition, and the absence of computed metrics widens our error bars on how lopsided it is, not whether.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The honest limitation: per-fighter advanced stats (SLpM, StrAcc, TD/15, TDDef) do not exist in the database for either man — Steveson has no DB row, and Ellison's career-stats and computed-metrics rows are empty. The only verified quantitative anchor is the heavyweight division baseline (22 fighters): SLpM 4.54, StrAcc 53.18%, TD/15 1.97, KD avg 1.14. The estimated composites tell the story directionally — grappling ~95 vs ~24 is the widest mismatch we have ever assessed, while striking (~46 vs ~43) is roughly level, both raw power-punchers. The entire technical gap is grappling, where Steveson holds what may be the single largest credential advantage on the card.
🧩Key Battle Areas
The whole fight lives in one window. The opening 45 seconds are the highest-variance sliver — if Ellison lands a clean overhand before Steveson commits to wrestling, his power can end it; this is essentially his entire case. From roughly 0:45 onward Steveson's window opens: a level change to a double or a body-lock against the fence against an opponent with no documented takedown defense, then the Pericic-pattern ground-and-pound (Ellison's lone UFC loss ended at 1:55 from exactly that position). The puncher's chance is real but small — a time-limited, high-variance path, not a coin flip — and Ellison must win it before the phase of the fight he cannot survive begins.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Gable Steveson by KO/TKO (62% probability) — largely ground-and-pound from top (the Pericic pattern), with a meaningful slice of standing KO given his demonstrated power. His submission path (11%) reflects a developing top game and reported Gordon Ryan tutelage, while a control-grind decision (15%) captures the path where unproven cardio or a measured approach prevents the finish and his wrestling banks a wide card. Ellison's entire realistic win condition is an early KO/TKO (11%) — a clean power shot before the wrestling takes over — with a near-rounding-error submission (1%) and a functionally zero decision (0%), since he has never been past R1 and cannot out-grapple an Olympian for 15 minutes. Method probabilities sum exactly: Steveson 62 + 11 + 15 = 88%; Ellison 11 + 1 + 0 = 12%.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 73% | Fair: -270
GOOD VALUE
Model: 56% | Fair: -127
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 11% | Fair: +809
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Market is wider than the model – Street opened ~-2800/+1300 (~96% implied); our model sits at 88%, pricing in Steveson's total MMA inexperience and HW variance.
- • Moneyline is poor risk/reward – Laying -2800 on a 3-fight novice with an untested chin is bad value; the edge is on method/round props, not the ML.
- • Props capture the script – "Inside distance" and "Round 1" price the takedown-to-GnP finish far better; "Ellison by KO/TKO" is the live longshot ticket.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Gable Steveson
Ground-and-pound from top (Pericic pattern) + standing KO
Control-grind decision if the finish doesn't come
Developing top game w/ Gordon Ryan tutelage
💥Outcome Distribution - Elisha Ellison
Clean power shot in the early standup window
Never past R1; no path to out-grapple for 15 minutes
Near rounding-error scramble/guillotine on the entry
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Elisha Ellison
- • First 45 seconds: Highest KO equity, before the wrestling phase begins.
- • Open space: Stay off the cage, swing for the fences with one-punch power.
- • Scramble up: Explosive returns to the feet if taken down — never play guard.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Gable Steveson
- • Level change: Body-lock or double after weathering the early burst.
- • Top control: Posture in guard and replicate the Pericic ground-and-pound.
- • Don't gas: A measured grind beats a frantic swarm if the early finish doesn't come.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High-conviction wrestling edge, capped below "lock" by thin data and heavyweight KO variance
✅Supporting Factors
- • Widest grappling gap ever assessed — Olympic gold + 2× NCAA champ vs. zero documented takedown defense
- • Steveson neutralizes Ellison's only weapon by also being a first-round knockout artist (3/3 R1 KOs)
- • The Pericic loss is a public, repeatable ground-and-pound blueprint a better wrestler should execute faster
- • Heavyweight baseline (KD 1.14, TD/15 1.97) doubly favors Steveson's two biggest edges
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Steveson is a near-total MMA unknown — ~6 min cage time, never past R1, untested chin, high-pressure PPV debut
- • Ellison's legitimate one-punch power (4 R1 KOs) keeps a narrow ~45-second upset window live
- • No DB-computed metrics for either fighter — wider error bars than any other analysis in this series
🏁Executive Summary
Across 100 simulations the recurring picture is stark: in roughly 88 of them, Gable Steveson's wrestling — the most decorated to enter the UFC heavyweight division in memory — finds Elisha Ellison's back inside the first round and the fight ends the same way Ellison's last one did, by strikes from top. In a healthy chunk of the rest, Steveson simply out-bangs a one-dimensional power-puncher and stops him standing. The single verified piece of MMA data we hold on Ellison — a first-round ground-and-pound loss to Brando Pericic at 1:55 — is a perfect preview of the most likely outcome, only now the man on top is an Olympic gold medalist. In the remaining ~12, Ellison does the one thing he is built to do: he lands the bomb in the opening exchange, before the wrestling phase begins, and a 3-fight novice's untested chin gives way. It is a real path — but a narrow, time-limited, high-variance one, and it is the entirety of his case.
Prediction: Gable Steveson (88%) by KO/TKO most likely (62%) — largely ground-and-pound from top, the Pericic pattern run back — with a developing submission (11%) and a control-grind decision (15%) rounding out his paths. Elisha Ellison's entire upset lane (12%) is an early KO/TKO (11%) in the first 45 seconds before the wrestling takes over. This fight is a wrestling referendum, and Ellison has no answer for the question; at heavyweight, though, with gloves this small and a chin this untested, "overwhelming" still leaves a puncher's door cracked open.