Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista
Bantamweight Bout • UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Saturday, July 11, 2026 • T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
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Cory Sandhagen
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Mario Bautista
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Cory Sandhagen
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | Merab Dvalishvili | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2025-05-03 | Deiveson Figueiredo | W | KO/TKO (R2, 4:08) |
| 2024-08-03 | Umar Nurmagomedov | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-05 | Rob Font | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-25 | Marlon Vera | W | Decision (Split) (R5, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Mario Bautista
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Umar Nurmagomedov | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-06-07 | Patchy Mix | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-05 | Jose Aldo | W | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-01-13 | Ricky Simon | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-19 | Da'Mon Blackshear | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (62.8 vs 66.9) and Grappling Composite (51.3 vs 64.1). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills. On pure division-relative composites Bautista grades higher; the context factors that follow are why our final read leans Sandhagen.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Cory Sandhagen Key Advantages
Sandhagen's strength-of-schedule tier is Championship — the highest band in the database — built on 8 elite-tier wins across 14 elite fights and seven five-round wars against the division's best (Merab, Umar, Yan, Dillashaw). Bautista's tier is Elite: 2 elite wins in 4 elite fights, headlined by a split nod over a 38-year-old Jose Aldo. When two profiles grade this close on composites, the fighter proven repeatedly at championship altitude is the safer projection. Sandhagen has already seen everything this division throws; Bautista is still proving he belongs in the top five.
Sandhagen's chin is Elite — 8 knockdowns dealt to 2 absorbed, a 4.00:1 exchange — and his damage ratio of 1.96 ranks 11/52 in the division, meaning he deals nearly double the damage he takes. Bautista's chin is only "Good" (cracked once by Trevin Jones) and his damage ratio is 1.57. In a striking match between two above-average defenders, Sandhagen absorbs 20% below the bantamweight average (3.34 SApM) while Bautista absorbs 6% above it (4.45 SApM, rank 39/52). Sandhagen can afford the firefight; Bautista pays more for every one of his high-volume exchanges and sits on the more dangerous durability curve.
Sandhagen owns both the scarier ending and the better start. His finishing arsenal — the flying knee that iced Frankie Edgar in 28 seconds, the wheel kick that flattened Marlon Moraes, and a clean KO of former champ Deiveson Figueiredo — accounts for 44% of his wins against an opponent who has been knocked out before and absorbs above-average volume. He also comes out engaged: his 11.1% slow-start rate against Bautista's 42.9% means that, in a 3-round fight, Sandhagen should bank Round 1 with leg kicks and clean counters while Bautista is still calibrating. And the head-to-head already belongs to him — Sandhagen armbarred Bautista in Round 1 of Bautista's 2019 debut.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The worst version of this fight for Sandhagen is a pure volume contest at mid-range, where Bautista's rank-5 output (6.13 SLpM) and dedicated body work accumulate, and his signature third-round surge (36.4 landed, a 173% jump over Round 1) steals a close final frame on the cards. Two decision-prone technicians can easily reach the judges; if they reward Bautista's busier activity over Sandhagen's cleaner damage, "The Sandman" loses a points fight he never came close to being finished in.
A stalled level-change or a careless scramble is the one way Sandhagen gets finished. Bautista ranks 13/52 in submission rate (0.77 per 15) with a documented rear-naked-choke specialty and 75.4% ground accuracy. If Sandhagen shoots and gets stuffed, or a transition goes wrong, Bautista climbs to the back and hunts the choke — exactly how Aljamain Sterling submitted Sandhagen in 2021. Any extended time on the mat plays into the single most dangerous tool his opponent owns.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Sandhagen should attack Bautista's 42.9% slow start immediately — early leg kicks (his 25.5% R1 leg targeting) and clean distance counters to bank the opening frame while Bautista is still warming up. From there he keeps the fight in open space at kicking range, where his height, leg-reach and diverse arsenal (knee rate 0.75, head-kick rate 0.38, spinning attacks 0.23) live. The priority is refusing the clinch and the cage, where Bautista's tie-up volume is most comfortable and the kicking game dies.
Bautista throws a lot but absorbs above average, so Sandhagen should time the entries and counter the body-punching combinations, letting his 1.96 damage ratio do the work — quality over quantity is the framing that wins both the fight and the cards. He must never wrestle carelessly: with 63% takedown defense and elite scramble IQ, any ground exchange should be posture-up-and-stand, not hold-and-hunt, to keep Bautista's rank-13 submission game shelved. And because the 36.4-strike R3 surge is coming, he cannot coast the final round and gift it to the division's best closer.
🚀 Mario Bautista Key Advantages
Bautista's 6.13 significant strikes landed per minute ranks 5/52 in the bantamweight division — elite volume and the highest output in this fight by a clear margin (Sandhagen lands 5.06 at average accuracy). His path is obvious: out-throw and out-land Sandhagen, leaning on his two-inch reach edge (72" vs 70") and 49% accuracy to contest the jab range. If the bout is scored on activity rather than damage, Bautista's pace banks rounds — and against an opponent who fights at modest volume, the busier man on the cards is a very live route.
Bautista's defining trait is purpose-built for this format: his output explodes from 17.8 landed in Round 1 to 36.4 in Round 3 — a 173% surge that makes him one of the division's most pronounced "Strong Finishers" and is tailor-made for a 15-minute sprint. Underneath that is a genuinely elite submission threat — rank-13 Sub/15 (0.77), an RNC specialty and 75.4% ground accuracy. Any moment the fight hits the mat — a stalled Sandhagen level-change, a scramble gone wrong — Bautista is hunting the back and the choke, and Sandhagen has been submitted before.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Bautista's 42.9% slow-start rate is his defining liability, and it is poison against a fast starter. If Sandhagen banks Round 1 with leg kicks and clean distance counters while Bautista (17.8 landed in R1, his lowest output) is still calibrating, Bautista is forced to sweep the last two rounds against a man who never fades — Sandhagen's R3 output (106% of his R1) means there is no late collapse to exploit. Spotting the opening frame in a 3-round fight is the fastest way the upset slips away.
Bautista's chin is "Good," not Elite — Trevin Jones already cracked it for a clean knockout in 2021 — and he absorbs above-average volume (4.45 SApM, rank 39/52). A wheel kick, flying knee or clean counter from Sandhagen's rank-11 damage arsenal landing flush is a real R1/R2 KO path. And if Sandhagen's 63% takedown defense and scramble IQ simply refuse the ground, Bautista's best finishing tool — the RNC that has never converted against an elite opponent — stays on the shelf, leaving him to win a damage fight against the division's better damage-dealer.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Against a fast starter who banks early rounds, Bautista cannot afford to spot Sandhagen the opening frame — he has to open with volume and body work from the first minute and finally beat his 42.9% slow-start habit. From there he turns it into a volume war at mid-range, using his 72" reach and rank-5 output to out-throw Sandhagen, and drags him into tie-ups (clinch accuracy 70.3%, 11–14% clinch involvement) where Sandhagen is least comfortable and the open-space kicking game dies.
The blueprint is his body investment (28–29% body targeting) plus the 173% R3 surge: break Sandhagen's midsection early, then drown him in volume down the stretch. In every scramble Bautista should climb to the back and hunt the RNC — the mat is the one arena where he is statistically the more dangerous man. Above all he must make the judges count punches, not damage: stay busy, throw in volume, and force a close-rounds decision where his activity narrative beats Sandhagen's cleaner-damage narrative — the path that has won him four straight.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
📐Range & Geometry
This is an unusual physical pairing: the taller fighter (Sandhagen, 5'11") owns the shorter reach (70"), while the shorter fighter (Bautista, 5'9") owns the longer arms (72"). That pulls the two men toward different optimal ranges. Sandhagen's game is built on height, footwork and a kick-heavy outside arsenal — he wants space and angles. Bautista's two-inch arm edge and rank-5 volume want the mid-range pocket and the jab. Whoever imposes their range wins the striking: Sandhagen has the footwork and kicking variety to dictate distance, while Bautista has the volume and clinch tools (70.3% clinch accuracy) to collapse it and make the fight ugly. The opening exchanges will tell us which range governs the night.
🎯Volume vs. Damage — the Scoring Fault Line
This fight is a near-perfect test case of MMA judging's oldest argument. Bautista is the volume fighter — rank-5 SLpM (6.13), 36.4 strikes landed in Round 3 — while Sandhagen is the damage fighter — rank-11 damage ratio (1.96), an Elite chin, a KO arsenal, and absorption 20% below division average (3.34 vs 4.45 SApM). Both men are above-average defensively, so this is more technical chess than brawl. In a close three-rounder with no finish, the result may hinge entirely on whether the judges reward Bautista's busier output or Sandhagen's cleaner, more harmful connects. Sandhagen's split-decision wins over Vera and Lineker show he survives the judges' room — but Bautista's sheer activity is a genuine scorecard threat.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three areas decide it. First, the strength-of-schedule adjustment: the composites grade Bautista marginally higher (Overall 69.3 vs 67.6), but division-relative ranks are blind to who a fighter built them against — Sandhagen's came against a Championship-tier schedule, Bautista's against the tier below, and regressing for opposition quality closes and then reverses the gap. Second, the submission question: Bautista's rank-13 sub rate is real, but every one of his sub finishes came against the lower tier, and against elite grapplers the fight has gone to decision every time — and Sandhagen owns 63% takedown defense plus elite scrambling. Third, the R1 variance window: both men front-load their grappling danger (Sandhagen an "Early Hunter," 100% of Bautista's career sub attempts in R1), so the opening round is the fight's highest-variance moment for both.
🏁Final Prediction
The single most likely individual outcome is Sandhagen by Decision (26%), out-pointing Bautista in a close, damage-led fight after banking Round 1. His KO/TKO path (22%) is the largest finishing category in the bout, justified by his rank-11 damage ratio, 4:1 knockdown exchange and Bautista's "Good"-not-Elite chin. Bautista's best route is not the highlight-reel finish but the decision (22%) — the volume war and third-round surge winning the activity interpretation — with his submission game (16%) his most dangerous finishing lane. Decision is the single most likely result overall (48% combined). Two above-average defenders who both go the distance often point firmly toward a 15-minute fight on the cards, where Sandhagen's pedigree and damage edge win more of the close ones.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 72% | Market implied: 66.7%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 52% | Market implied: 40.8%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 44% | Fair: +127
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Volume vs. damage – Composites reward Bautista's output; the market under-prices Sandhagen's cleaner, more harmful connects.
- • Strength of schedule unpriced – Sandhagen's Championship tier (8 elite wins) vs Bautista's Elite tier is invisible to division-rank composites.
- • 3-round format aids Bautista – No championship rounds narrows Sandhagen's cardio edge and suits Bautista's 173% R3 surge.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Cory Sandhagen
Most likely result — out-points Bautista on damage
Biggest finishing lane — kicks/knees on a Good chin
Early scramble — he armbarred Bautista in 2019
💥Outcome Distribution - Mario Bautista
Most probable upset — volume war and R3 surge on the cards
Best finishing lane — RNC off a scramble (rank-13 sub rate)
Low KD rate (rank 38) and trailing damage ratio
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Mario Bautista
- • Win the volume war: Out-throw at mid-range (rank-5, 6.13 SLpM).
- • Invest in the body: 28–29% body targeting sets up the late surge.
- • R3 surge & back-takes: 36.4 landed late; hunt the RNC in any scramble.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Cory Sandhagen
- • Bank Round 1: Leg kicks and counters vs a 42.9% slow starter.
- • Damage over volume: 1.96 ratio and Elite chin win the meaningful exchanges.
- • Refuse the mat: 63% TDDef and scramble IQ keep it a kickboxing fight.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A genuine lean, not a confident call — composites are a near-tie
✅Supporting Factors
- • Championship strength of schedule (8 elite wins vs 2)
- • Elite chin and 1.96 damage ratio vs a "Good" chin
- • Fast start vs a 42.9% slow starter in a 3-round fight
- • Already submitted Bautista (armbar, R1, 2019)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Composites actually favor Bautista (69.3 vs 67.6)
- • Elite volume + 173% R3 surge wins activity cards
- • Live RNC threat — Sandhagen has been choked out before
🏁Executive Summary
This is one of the closest fights on the card on paper. On pure division-relative composites Bautista actually grades marginally higher (Overall 69.3 vs 67.6), and the Technical Striker vs Technical Striker archetype baseline is a literal 50.0% coin flip across a 1,196-fight sample. Our lean to Sandhagen is a deliberate override grounded in the things percentile ranks cannot see — a Championship-tier résumé against Bautista's Elite tier (8 elite wins to 2), an Elite chin against a "Good" one cracked once by Trevin Jones, a 1.96 damage ratio against 1.57, a fast start (11.1% slow) against a slow one (42.9%), and a prior armbar win over this exact man. None of those are blowout factors; all of them point the same direction. The most common storyline: Sandhagen wins the range battle early, banks Round 1 with leg kicks and clean counters, then either out-points Bautista in a close, damage-led decision or catches the "Good" chin in the firefight.
Prediction: Cory Sandhagen def. Mario Bautista (56% to 44%). Sandhagen by Decision is the single most likely individual outcome (26%), with his KO/TKO the largest finishing lane (22%); decision overall is the most probable result (48% combined). Bautista is the most live underdog on the card — if his volume war and brutal third-round surge (36.4 landed) land on the judges the way they have for four straight wins, or his rank-13 submission game finally converts in a scramble (16%), "The Sandman" goes back to the drawing board on July 11.