Tabatha Ricci vs Fatima Kline
Women's Strawweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Saturday, July 18, 2026 • Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
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Tabatha Ricci
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fatima Kline
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Tabatha Ricci
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | Amanda Ribas | W | KO/TKO (R2, 2:59) |
| 2024-11-09 | Yan Xiaonan | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-24 | Angela Hill | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-24 | Tecia Torres | W | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-11 | Lupita Godinez | L | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Fatima Kline
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | Angela Hill | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-07-12 | Melissa Martinez | W | KO/TKO (Head Kick) (R3, 2:36) |
| 2025-01-11 | Viktoriia Dudakova | W | KO/TKO (Elbows) (R2, 4:27) |
| 2024-07-20 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-23 | Andressa Romero | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R5, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (37.8 vs 71.8) and Grappling Composite (61.3 vs 42.8). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Tabatha Ricci Key Advantages
Ricci's grappling is the reason she is live in this fight. Her 2.69 takedowns per 15 minutes (rank 6 of 30) and 46 career clinch takedowns attack the softest target on Kline's profile — a documented 50% takedown defense, the crack the Jasudavicius loss exposed. Crucially, the grappling is a one-way street: Ricci's own 79% takedown defense means Kline cannot reverse the script or wrestle back. This produces an 18.5-point grappling-composite edge (61.3 vs 42.8). If she closes the distance, the mat is a contest only she can win — the only question is how often she can walk down that street.
Kline's only professional loss came to Jasmine Jasudavicius — a grappler who took her down, controlled her, and out-pointed her over three rounds. That is precisely Ricci's archetype, and Ricci is a higher-level judoka attacking the same soft 50% takedown defense. The path to beating Kline is not theoretical: it already happened once, it is on tape, and the woman built to run it better is standing across the cage. Ricci is also the more proven, higher-ranked fighter (#8 vs #14), with wins over Hill, Ribas, Torres and Robertson, a submission of Penne, ten Octagon fights to Kline's four, and a never-finished record at 115.
The two clocks run opposite directions, and the early one is Ricci's. She is a fast starter (14.3% slow-start rate) who engages from the opening bell; Kline is a notorious slow starter (66.7%) who calibrates before erupting late. Rounds 1 and the first half of Round 2 — before Kline finds her range and her R3 surge arrives — are Ricci's best chance to establish takedowns, bank control time and get ahead on the cards. Add the classic stylistic kryptonite of a short, dense, low-center-of-gravity grappler against a tall striker who would rather stay vertical, and Ricci's front-loaded path is real.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The worst case for Ricci is the Yan Xiaonan loss replayed: Kline's six-inch reach and footwork keep Ricci on the end of the jab and kicks for fifteen minutes. Ricci's distance accuracy is just 32.4% and her overall accuracy is last in the division (rank 29/30) — she cannot close the gap on the cards. If the takedowns do not land, every standing minute is a minute Kline banks behind 50% accuracy while absorbing almost nothing (SApM rank 3).
Ricci's volume entries can walk her onto Kline's clinch knees and elbows — the Dudakova phase — and she eats damage on every failed shot with no power to deter, her sub-1.0 damage ratio (0.80, rank 26) compounding round over round. If the fight reaches Round 3 even, Kline's 32.3-output, 88.9%-head-targeting, 0.33-knockdown finishing surge can end a tiring Ricci — who has been stopped before only when a real striker (Fiorot) accumulated on her.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Ricci should exploit Kline's 66.7% slow start by taking the fight to the fence inside the first ninety seconds, before Kline's range game warms up. Her 28.3% R1 leg-kick targeting is the entry, not the weapon — leg kicks to compromise Kline's footwork and disguise the level change into the body lock. A clean striking exchange is a losing exchange; every standing second should be in transit toward the clinch and the trip.
With only average conversion (37% TDAcc), volume is the answer: keep shooting — 2.3-plus attempts per round — at Kline's 50% takedown defense, and once it is down, prioritize control time over scrambles that let Kline stand back into her range. The mission is to bank Rounds 1 and 2 and survive the Round 3 surge, because the deep water belongs to Kline. Ricci's 79% takedown defense guarantees that any position she wins, she keeps.
🚀 Fatima Kline Key Advantages
The six-inch reach gap is the spine of the fight. Kline can fight an entire round in space Ricci physically cannot reach into, behind a 0.82-rate jab and long kicks, landing at 50% while absorbing almost nothing (SApM 2.29, rank 3 of 30). At strawweight that length is the difference between fighting in your opponent's range and never being touched in it. Ricci's distance accuracy is 32.4% and her overall accuracy is last in the division — every minute spent at range is a minute Kline banks for free.
Kline wins every standing column — accuracy (9 vs 29), defense (7 vs 11), absorption (3 vs 26), knockdown power (4 vs 15) and damage ratio (4 vs 26) — a comprehensive 34-point striking-composite gap (71.8 vs 37.8). Her Iron chin (zero knockdowns absorbed) against a fighter who has never scored one lets her fight patient and weather Ricci's volume entries. And the championship-minutes window is hers: a 159% R3 output build (32.3 sig, 0.33 knockdown average) is the Martinez head-kick-KO window made literal.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The nightmare for Kline is her slow start meeting Ricci's fast one: a Round 1 takedown and 90-plus seconds of control banked before Kline finds her range, and the pattern repeating into Round 2. If the 50% takedown defense holds true and Ricci lands multiple takedowns per round, Kline cannot wrestle back (Ricci 79% TDDef) — a 30-27 or 29-28 control-and-volume decision evaporates her finishing chances entirely.
Kline's grappling number is dragged down by the one metric that matters most here — 50% takedown defense, with half the takedowns attempted on her landing. The secondary danger is the scramble: Ricci's judo-to-armbar (3 career subs, the Penne armbar pattern) can catch Kline as she tries to stand back up into her range. The blueprint to beat Kline exists and is on tape; the only question is whether Ricci executes it better than Jasudavicius did.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Kline's optimal strategy is to own the center behind a long jab, teeps and round kicks — make Ricci travel six inches through clean fire to touch her. The fight is won by keeping it standing: defend the entries, never grapple voluntarily, sprawl and circle out, and reset to range after every Ricci clinch attempt. She should never give back the one phase where she is comprehensively superior.
When Ricci does close, Kline must make the clinch cost her — knees to the body, elbows up top (tech_knee 0.73, tech_elbow 0.64) — then break and re-space. And she should trust her build rather than force it early: bank the read, escalate the body work in Round 2 (the Dudakova phase), and head-hunt the Round 3 surge where the head kick and the knockdown live. Patience behind the reach is the whole game.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️The Range War
Strip everything else away and this is a single recurring collision: Kline's six-inch reach advantage and 50%-accuracy outside game versus Ricci's need to be in the clinch. The data says Kline wins the range phase decisively (striking composite 71.8 vs 37.8) and Ricci wins the grappling phase clearly (61.3 vs 42.8). The fight is therefore decided by transition control — who dictates whether the action lives at range or in the grapple. Kline's tools (footwork, jab, clinch knees and elbows, sprawl) are built to keep it at range; Ricci's (leg kicks, level changes, 2.3-plus shots per round, body lock) are built to break it to the floor. Neither has a clear edge in that transition battle, which is why this is genuinely competitive despite the lopsided physicals.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The two profiles are near-perfect inverses. Kline owns every striking and damage column — accuracy (rank 9 vs 29), defense (7 vs 11), absorption (3 vs 26), knockdown power (4 vs 15) and damage ratio (4 vs 26) — a comprehensive striking superiority multiplied by six inches of reach and an Iron chin. Ricci owns exactly one phase, but owns it well: takedown volume (2.69 per 15, rank 6) into Kline's soft 50% takedown defense, with her own 79% takedown defense ensuring the grappling is a one-way exchange. The decisive asymmetry is that Ricci's winning phase requires her to first survive and pass through Kline's winning phase — range, then clinch — while Kline's winning phase is simply where the fight already starts.
🧩The Two Clocks
The two clocks run opposite directions. Ricci's win equity is front-loaded — fast start (14.3% slow-start), early takedowns, control rounds banked before fatigue and Kline's surge arrive. Kline's win equity is back-loaded — a 66.7% slow-start rate, a range read, then a Round 3 output explosion (32.3 significant strikes, 0.33 knockdown average) that is the most dangerous single round either fighter brings. The internal timeline reads: Ricci must be ahead by the midpoint of Round 2, because Round 3 is Kline's kingdom — a Ricci who hasn't established the grapple by then is walking into the exact round where Kline finished Melissa Martinez with a head kick.
🏁Final Prediction
The single most data-supported finishing path is Fatima Kline by KO/TKO (26%) — elite damage ratio (rank 4), knockdown power (rank 4), an Iron chin that lets her stay patient, and a documented Round 3 head-hunting surge against an opponent who absorbs a lot and has been stopped before. Add her range- control decision (25%) and Kline is a 54% favorite. Ricci's most structurally sound path is the decision (30%): takedowns into the 50% takedown defense, control time across three rounds, neutralizing the reach — she is a 58%-decision fighter for a reason — with a judo-to-armbar scramble (8%) and a ground-and-pound stoppage (8%) rounding out her 46%. The reach is the thumb on the scale.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 55% | Implied: 43.5%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 23% | Implied: 20.0%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 26% | Implied: 26.7%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Underprices the distance – Two Iron/never- finished durability profiles make +130 the best value.
- • Overrates the finish – Inside-distance at −160 ignores how hard both women are to put away at 115.
- • Sleeps on the R3 surge – Kline's late detonation makes an R3 finish (+400) live at ~23%.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Tabatha Ricci
Control-and-volume grind vs a soft 50% TDDef
Ground-and-pound stoppage (Ribas pattern)
Judo-to-armbar scramble (Penne pattern)
💥Outcome Distribution - Fatima Kline
Late head-hunting surge (Martinez R3 KO)
Range-control points win (the Yan template)
Token figure — a stray scramble only
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Tabatha Ricci
- • First 7 minutes: Fast start vs a 66.7% slow starter is her best window.
- • Shoot early: Leg kicks into the body lock and trip before Kline finds range.
- • Bank control: Hold position, refuse the standing exchange, win the cards.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Tabatha Ricci
- • Chain shots: Re-mats and rides bank control and sap pace.
- • Damage economy: Keep exchanges short; minimize risk.
- • Late minutes: Safer control edges decision likelihood.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A decisive-but-humble lean to the longer, harder-hitting striker — close to a stylistic coin-flip resolved by reach and chin
✅Supporting Factors
- • Six-inch reach gap is structural at strawweight and spans every standing metric
- • Iron chin and elite damage ratio (rank 4) vs zero Ricci knockdown power
- • The two clocks favor her — a R3 finishing surge owns the deciding round
- • Archetype baseline (52.2%) and the youth/trajectory edge nudge the same way
⚠️Risk Factors
- • The Jasudavicius blueprint is real — Kline's lone loss came to exactly Ricci's grappling style
- • Ricci is more proven and higher-ranked (#8 vs #14), never finished at 115
- • One-way grappling: Ricci's 79% takedown defense means Kline cannot wrestle back
🏁Executive Summary
Across 100 simulations the same fork recurs. In roughly 54, Fatima Kline keeps the fight in her world — six inches of reach hold Ricci on the end of the jab, the entries cost Ricci damage with no power to deter, and Kline either out-points her over three rounds (25) or breaks her in the late surge where the head kick and the knockdown live (26). She is the cleaner, harder-hitting, harder-to-hit, harder-to-hurt striker, and at strawweight that length is a weapon Ricci has no easy answer for. In the other 46, Ricci drags the fight to the floor and the numbers invert — a fast start against a slow starter, attacks on the 50% takedown defense that already cost Kline once, and the control-and-volume decision (30) that is her stock-in-trade.
Prediction: Fatima Kline by KO/TKO (26%) is the single most data-supported finish, with her range-control decision (25%) right behind; Tabatha Ricci's most likely path is the grappling decision (30%) if she wins the war for where the fight happens. The reach and the iron chin make Kline the pick — but the blueprint to beat her exists, and Ricci is better equipped to run it than the grappler who first did, keeping this a five-and-not-higher lean.