Damian Pinas vs César Almeida
Middleweight Bout • UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Saturday, July 11, 2026 • T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Damian Pinas
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
César Almeida
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Damian Pinas
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | No UFC fight log in database | — | Regional MMA — see analysis (—, —) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - César Almeida
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Cezary Oleksiejczuk | L | U-DEC (27-30 ×3) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025 | Abdul Razak Alhassan | W | KO/TKO — Punch at Distance (R1, 4:16) |
| Oct 2024 | Ihor Potieria | W | U-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Jun 2024 | Roman Kopylov | L | S-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| Apr 2024 | Dylan Budka | W | KO/TKO — Elbows (Clinch) (R2, 2:13) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. César Almeida is fully computed (Striking 57.4 / Grappling 20.2 → Technical 38.8, the grappling void reflecting a pure kickboxer, not weakness on the feet). Damian Pinas has no career-stats row in the database, so his composites are uncomputable (N/A) and shown as zero throughout.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Damian Pinas Key Advantages
The cleanest, most defensible edge in the fight, and it needs no invented data. Almeida is 36 and his Round-3 output collapses to 58% of his Round-1 rate ("Fades Late," DB confirmed); Pinas is 24. In a three-round contest the deciding round is Almeida's worst round, and Pinas will be the fresher man standing in it. Both of Almeida's UFC losses — Kopylov and Oleksiejczuk — came via this exact mechanism: out-worked over the championship minutes by a durable, busy opponent. Freshness and a young competitive mileage profile are the prospect's most reliable assets here.
Almeida sits in the "Vulnerable" chin tier (DB): 4 career knockdowns absorbed against only 2 dealt — a 0.50 KD exchange ratio, meaning he has been dropped more often than he drops others. His recovery after being hurt is a coin-flip 50%, and his 48% striking defense (rank 34/46) means clean shots get through. If Pinas carries any power — unknown, but a reasonable prior for a striking-region prospect — a knockout path is live every time Almeida steps into range. This vulnerability is the foundation of Pinas's 19% KO/TKO equity, and it is a standing target for all 15 minutes.
Almeida's takedown offense is 0.00 per 15 (rank 43/46) and his takedown defense is a soft 60%. If Pinas can wrestle at all — the single biggest unknown in the fight — he has an entirely uncontested lane to control time, steal rounds, and keep Almeida away from the clean striking that is his only real weapon. Almeida has no documented ability to either initiate grappling or reliably stop it. The model even quietly ranks Pinas #16 at middleweight while leaving the proven Almeida unranked — consistent with an engine that regards the prospect as a legitimately graded live athlete, not a body.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Almeida's danger is front-loaded. His two UFC finishes both came inside ten minutes — a distance counter that ended Alhassan in Round 1 (4:16) and clinch elbows that ended Budka in Round 2 (2:13). If his Round-1 leg-kick game sets up the Round-2 head-and-clinch escalation before the prospect settles, the fight can end before Pinas's youth and cardio ever become factors. The opening ten minutes — Almeida's documented finishing peak — are the storm Pinas has to weather.
A likely-debuting opponent who presses forward without defensive discipline can walk straight onto Almeida's elite-accuracy counters (59%, rank 12/46) and elite damage (2.28 ratio, rank 5/46). If the fight stays at kickboxing range — Almeida's preferred world — the prospect's biggest theoretical edge, an entirely unmeasured wrestling game, never comes into play, leaving a striking match the proven kickboxer is favored to win on quality. Big-stage nerves on a McGregor-headlined PPV could also produce a flat, tentative performance that lets Almeida bank early rounds.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Almeida's danger is concentrated in Rounds 1–2: the leg-kick opener, the Round-2 finishing peak, and a live R1 knockdown threat. Pinas's first job is simply to weather that storm without being hurt — check the leg kicks, avoid the clinch escalation that finished Budka, and deny the clean distance counter that finished Alhassan. Get through the first ten minutes intact and the fight tilts hard toward the fresher man.
Almeida's output falls to 9.7 significant strikes in Round 3 (58% of his Round-1 rate). The highest-percentage path for Pinas is to drag a 36-year-old into the championship minutes and out-work him, exactly as Oleksiejczuk did over a clean 27-30 ×3 decision. If Pinas has any grappling — unknown — Almeida's 0.00 takedown offense and 60% defense turn this into a control-and-decision fight Almeida cannot win. Sustained, committed pressure also keeps testing a chin that has already been dropped four times.
🚀 César Almeida Key Advantages
Almeida is the only fighter in this matchup the database can measure, and the numbers describe a real, dangerous UFC-level striker: top-tier accuracy (59%, rank 12/46), elite low absorption (2.32 SApM, rank 6/46), and an elite damage ratio (2.28, rank 5/46). He hits clean, gets hit comparatively little, and out-damages opponents heavily when allowed to fight at range — a clean kickboxer's profile of high accuracy and low absorption. Against an opponent the engine cannot grade at all, "proven and accurate" is itself a meaningful edge.
Almeida's finishing tools are documented and varied for a striker: a distance punch that ended Alhassan in Round 1 and clinch elbows that ended Budka in Round 2. His R1 knockdown average (0.20) means the early finish is always live, and his signature opener — 46.5% of Round-1 strikes to the legs at 94.4% distance — is a low-risk way to bank damage, slow the prospect's footwork, and set up the Round-2 head-and-clinch escalation (targeting flips to 62.1% head, clinch usage triples). If he lands clean inside the first ten minutes, he can end the night.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Almeida's third round is a documented cliff — output falls to 9.7 significant strikes (a 49% drop from his Round-2 peak), accuracy dips, and he retreats to distance with almost no offense of consequence. In a three-round fight that makes his single worst round the deciding round, and he will spend it across the cage from a man twelve years younger. This is precisely the mechanism that lost him the Oleksiejczuk and Kopylov decisions — and his most recent result was a one-sided 27-30 ×3 loss.
Almeida has attempted two takedowns in his entire tracked UFC career and landed neither (0.00 TD/15, rank 43/46), and his own takedown defense is a soft 60%. If Pinas brings any grappling, Almeida has no documented way to either drag the fight back to the feet or stop being taken down — he would spend rounds on his back or against the fence, unable to deploy the striking that is his only edge. This is the scenario that inverts the lean entirely, and the database cannot rule it in or out.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Almeida's documented opener is the leg-kick clinic — 46.5% of his Round-1 strikes target the legs at distance. He should bank that damage early, test the prospect's leg-kick checking, and slow his footwork, then escalate to the head and clinch in Round 2, where his targeting flips to 62.1% head and his clinch usage triples. The Budka elbow finish is the template: soften the opponent early, then close the distance once timing and range are established.
Both of Almeida's UFC finishes came in Rounds 1–2 and his Round 3 is a documented collapse, so against a fresh 24-year-old, urgency is survival rather than preference. He must counter rather than chase — his elite low absorption (2.32 SApM) and 59% accuracy are built on patience and timing — while protecting a Vulnerable chin, and he must stay vertical at all costs, because with 0.00 takedown offense and 60% defense the canvas is his nightmare. Win it early at range and in the clinch, or risk a third straight "faded late" loss.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🧭An Asymmetric Information Fight
This is the most data-asymmetric matchup on the card. César Almeida is fully computed down to round-by-round targeting; Damian Pinas is a roster row — no career stats, no fight log, no round-by-round profile, no finish record, no measurements. That asymmetry is not a footnote, it is the analytical story: we are weighing a known, flawed quantity against an unknown one that both the matchmakers and our own model appear to regard as a live prospect (the engine ranks Pinas #16 at middleweight while leaving the proven Almeida unranked). Every projection about Pinas below is an inference from age, matchup shape, and Almeida's measurable weaknesses — not from Pinas's own data, which does not exist.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Strip away the noise and Almeida is a clean archetype: an aging, accurate, hard-hitting kickboxer with a vulnerable chin, no wrestling, and a documented third-round collapse. His measurable profile is strong where it counts — 59% accuracy (rank 12/46), 2.32 SApM absorbed (rank 6/46), and a 2.28 damage ratio (rank 5/46) — but it is undercut by three numbers in this specific fight: a Vulnerable chin (4 KDs absorbed, 0.50 exchange ratio), a 42% Round-3 output collapse ("Fades Late"), and a 0.00 takedown offense paired with a soft 60% takedown defense. Pinas is a blank statistical row, so there is no comparative column to fill — the radar and detailed-stat panels reflect a measured fighter against an unmeasured one, which is exactly the truth of the matchup.
🧩The Three Unknowns That Decide It
Three questions swing the fight, and the database can only answer one side of each. First — can Pinas wrestle? Almeida's 0.00 takedown offense and 60% defense mean a grappling-capable Pinas wins comfortably on control and cards, while a pure-striker Pinas keeps the fight in Almeida's world; this is the single biggest swing factor. Second — does Pinas have power and a chin? Almeida is droppable (Vulnerable tier) but also a finisher, so a high-variance exchange could go either way. Third — how does a young prospect handle a McGregor-PPV main card? Almeida has big-stage reps; Pinas likely does not, so composure variance favors the veteran early. The cleanest pattern of all is the age-and-fade convergence: Almeida's Round-3 output of 9.7 sig meets a 24-year-old in the very round that decides close fights.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely single outcome is César Almeida by KO/TKO (33%), his largest and most data-supported path — two UFC finishes, an elite damage ratio, and finishing tools at distance and in the clinch, all concentrated in his R1–R2 window. Almeida by Decision (22%) captures the script where he banks early rounds and survives a fading third. Pinas's upset lanes are realistic but unquantified on his side: a Decision (18%) built on surviving the early storm and out-working a 36-year-old whose output craters to 9.7 sig in Round 3, a KO/TKO (19%) built on Almeida's Vulnerable chin, and a Submission (5%) reflecting the uncertainty-weighted chance of a grappling dimension Almeida cannot defend. Almeida's win equity is front-loaded into Rounds 1–2; Pinas's grows with every minute the fight lasts.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: ~52% | Fair: −108
GOOD VALUE
Model: 33% | Fair: +200
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 42% | Fair: +138
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overprices the measured man – A −150 line leans on Almeida's data while ignoring a total void on Pinas.
- • Undervalues the age/fade axis – Almeida's R3 collapse vs a fresh 24-year-old is his recurring loss.
- • Two independent finish lanes – Almeida's KO power plus his breakable chin make inside-distance underpriced at +110.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Damian Pinas
Survive early, then out-work a fading 36-year-old late
Live in any exchange — Almeida's Vulnerable chin (4 KDs)
Uncertainty-weighted — a grappling dimension Almeida can't defend
💥Outcome Distribution - César Almeida
Largest path — 2 UFC finishes, elite damage, R1–R2 window
Banks early rounds, survives a fading third on the cards
Token figure — 0 career sub wins, a guillotine habit only
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - César Almeida
- • First 10 minutes: Both UFC finishes landed here — the peak window.
- • Leg-kick opener: 46.5% R1 leg targeting slows the prospect's footwork.
- • Escalate in R2: Clinch elbows and head-hunting — the Budka template.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Damian Pinas
- • Survive the storm: Weather Almeida's R1–R2 finishing window intact.
- • Turn Round 3: Out-work a 36-year-old whose output craters to 9.7 sig.
- • Wrestle if able: 0.00 TD offense / 60% TDD is an uncontested lane.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A low-conviction lean — a measured, flawed veteran against a fighter the database cannot grade at all
✅Supporting Factors
- • Only fighter with any data — accurate (12/46), elite damage ratio (5/46), low absorption (6/46)
- • Two documented UFC finishes, concentrated in R1–R2
- • Big-stage composure on a PPV vs a likely-debuting opponent
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Entire opposing profile is a data void — no Pinas stats
- • Almeida is 36 with a documented R3 collapse, off a clean UD loss
- • Vulnerable chin (4 KDs); cannot wrestle and can be wrestled
🏁Executive Summary
This fight is decided by the clock. César Almeida is the more skilled, more powerful, more experienced, and crucially the only measurable fighter — top-tier accuracy (59%, rank 12/46), an elite damage ratio (2.28, rank 5/46), and two documented Octagon finishes concentrated in his Rounds 1–2 window. Against an opponent the database cannot grade, that is enough to make him the lean. But he is 36, his Round-3 output collapses to 9.7 significant strikes (58% of his Round-1 rate), his chin is "Vulnerable" (4 KDs absorbed), and he has zero takedown offense with a soft 60% takedown defense — so if 24-year-old Damian Pinas survives the early storm, drags the fight into the championship minutes, breaks the chin, or deploys a wrestling game Almeida cannot stop, the prospect's 42% is very much alive. Almeida's win equity is front-loaded into Rounds 1–2; Pinas's grows with every minute.
Prediction: César Almeida 58% (KO/TKO 33%, Decision 22%, Submission 3%) over Damian Pinas 42% (KO/TKO 19%, Decision 18%, Submission 5%) — the single most likely result is Almeida by KO/TKO before his fade matters. This is a low-conviction veteran lean (4/10) and one of the more genuinely uncertain fights on the UFC 329 card, betting a quantified but aging, droppable striker against a prospect the engine cannot see. Best market value: fight ends inside distance (+110), with two independent finish lanes stacked on the same bout.