Kevin Holland vs Jacobe Smith
Welterweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Saturday, July 18, 2026 • Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
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Kevin Holland
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Jacobe Smith
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Kevin Holland
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Mike Malott | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-07-19 | Daniel Rodriguez | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-06-07 | Vicente Luque | W | Submission (R2, 1:03) |
| 2025-03-22 | Gunnar Nelson | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-01-18 | Reinier de Ridder | L | Submission (R1, 3:31) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Jacobe Smith
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Josiah Harrell | W | KO/TKO (R1, —) |
| 2025-06-28 | Niko Price | W | Submission (RNC) (R2, 4:03) |
| 2025-04-05 | Preston Parsons | W | KO/TKO (G&P) (R1, 1:13) |
| 2024-09-10 | DWCS / Pre-UFC | W | Finish (—, —) |
| 2024-05-18 | Regional / Pre-UFC | W | Finish (—, —) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (51.7 vs 67.4) and Grappling Composite (43.3 vs 93.1). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills. Smith's composites are small-sample estimates from a 4-round dataset.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Kevin Holland Key Advantages
The 9-inch reach and 5-inch height gap (81"/6'3" vs. 72"/5'10") is the great equalizer and the entire foundation of any Holland win. If he keeps the fight at the end of his 81-inch frame, Smith — whose 47% striking defense ranks 48/54 in the division — has to eat a wall of jabs, teeps, and long kicks just to get inside. Holland is one of the longest, busiest strikers in welterweight (4.30 SLpM, 50% accuracy); his job is to make every level-change entry expensive and force Smith to fight uphill through range.
Holland has been knocked down only four times in 44 pro fights — an Elite chin (KD exchange 3.50, 14 dealt / 4 absorbed) that makes him very hard to cleanly drop. He also carries real power (14 career KOs), and his R3 knockdown average ticks up to 0.20, meaning his finishing threat at range stays live even late. Smith has never faced anyone close to Holland's striking pedigree; if the unbeaten wrestler over-commits to a blitz or shoots from too far, Holland's counter power is a genuine fight-ender. Note the asymmetry, though: he is hard to KO, not hard to control.
The under-discussed equalizer: Holland is a legitimate scramble grappler (9 career submissions, 0.56 Sub/15 — rank 20/54; triangle rate 0.19, guillotine 0.13). If Smith shoots a lazy or telegraphed double from distance, the guillotine and front-headlock are right there — Holland has finished better-credentialed grapplers in exactly these scrambles. Smith's wrestling is elite, but a sloppy entry against a long-limbed front-headlock specialist is the one way his greatest strength becomes a trap.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Smith closes the reach gap behind a feint or a caught leg kick, changes levels, and lands the first takedown inside two minutes. Holland's 55% takedown defense (rank 37/54) and 33-second control average mean he then spends the round on bottom eating ground-and-pound — the exact Preston Parsons template that ended in a first-round TKO. Every high-level grappler Holland has faced (Chimaev, de Ridder, Allen, Brunson, Vettori) has found this same soft entry, and Smith is a better wrestler than all of them.
Smith takes the back in a scramble and finds the rear-naked choke, exactly as he did to Niko Price — Holland's three career submission losses (de Ridder, Chimaev, Allen) prove the neck is available. Failing the finish, the fight still bends against Holland: it reaches Round 3 with him down 2-0 and fading to 59% output while Smith's control climbs, producing a wide decision loss in a hostile Oklahoma building — his third straight defeat.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Jab, teep, and side-kick the lead leg to keep Smith pinned at the end of the 81-inch reach and make every entry cost something. Holland's math is front-loaded — he fades, so he must bank Rounds 1 and 2 at range, behind his volume and a heavy early leg-kick game, then force Smith into a third round neither man has tape on. Crucially, he must avoid backing straight to the fence, where absorbing shots turns into a takedown against the cage.
Holland can never accept bottom position — his survival depends on wall-walking and scrambling up fast before Smith settles into the 118-second control pattern that defines his finishes. His single highest-percentage win path is catching an over-eager level-change in the front headlock: bait the shot, snap down to the guillotine, and finish the trap. It is the one weapon that flips an elite wrestler's strength into a liability in a single scramble.
🚀 Jacobe Smith Key Advantages
This is the column that decides the fight, and it is pedigree-validated, not small-sample noise: a 7.42 TD/15 (rank 1/54) and 90% completion built off an Oklahoma State All-American base — two-time Big 12 champion, two-time JUCO national champion. Pointed straight at Holland's single most-documented weakness — 55% takedown defense, rank 37/54 — it is as clean an exploitation matchup as the division offers. The grappling equivalent of an elite striker against a man with no head movement.
Smith does not just take fighters down — he finishes from the top. He averages a division-elite 118 control-seconds per round and spends 39.7% of his striking on the ground, with control and ground volume that escalate every round. All three UFC wins are wrestlers' finishes: ground-and-pound on Preston Parsons and Josiah Harrell, and a back-take RNC of the dangerous veteran Niko Price. Holland's losing blueprint — submitted by de Ridder, Chimaev, and Allen once they got inside his length — is exactly Smith's kill sequence.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Smith cannot solve the 81-inch reach early, eats clean counters on his entries as his 47% striking defense (rank 48/54) bites, and Holland's Elite-chin durability lets the veteran bank rounds at distance. The fight-within-the-fight is whether Smith can survive Holland's length long enough to change levels — against the rangiest striker he has ever faced, his stand-up defense is the documented hole that an 81-inch sniper is built to exploit before any takedown lands.
Smith shoots from distance and Holland snaps down to a guillotine or front-headlock, finishing the over-eager entry — the one scenario where elite wrestling walks into a veteran's trap. Worse, the fight reaches Round 3, Smith's great unknown: the database literally cannot show a single Smith third round (6:04 average fight time, never past R2). Gassed from chasing takedowns against a long, mobile target, he could hand a fresh-enough Holland the final round on the feet.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Don't trade at range — pressure forward and close behind level-change threats, using the blitz-to-takedown pattern (R1 KD average 0.50) to get inside the 81-inch reach and change levels. The one discipline point is respecting the neck: shoot from inside, not from distance, to deny Holland the guillotine that has saved him against grapplers before. Smith's early-blitz power also gives Holland a genuine stand-up threat to honor, not just a wrestling one.
The moment Smith gets a body lock the round is his — 90% TD accuracy and 118 control-seconds per round say he advances position and ends it from top. Hunt the back and the RNC (the Niko Price template) or rain down ground-and-pound (the Parsons/Harrell template). The safest answer to his own biggest unknown is to take the third round off the table by finishing inside two — which his entire UFC history, all three wins inside the distance, supports.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
📐Length vs. Leverage
This is a wrestling-vs-striking referendum. Early, the fight favors Holland's length — an 81-inch reach and 6'3" frame against a man five inches shorter, with the jab, teep, and long kicks that make every level-change entry expensive. But length only matters if the fight lives where Holland wants it. Smith's Oklahoma State All-American wrestling is the tool that turns a 9-inch reach disadvantage into an irrelevance the moment he closes the gap and changes levels. And the intangible the data does not capture: this fight is in Oklahoma City, roughly 130 miles from Smith's hometown of Muskogee, in the state where he is a wrestling icon — the crowd will be his, and it lands on a cold veteran.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The collision point is unambiguous: Smith's rank-1 takedown engine (7.42 TD/15, 90% completion) against Holland's rank-37 takedown defense (55%). On paper Smith holds a 32.8-point Technical Score edge (80.3 vs 47.5), but the honest framing is that his number is inflated by a 4-round sample while Holland's is suppressed by his low takedown volume — strip the noise and the real signal survives: the grappling edge is structural and pedigree-validated. Holland's countering numbers are genuine but defensive — an Elite chin (4 KDs absorbed in 28 UFC fights), a 1.73 damage ratio, and a 0.56 Sub/15 scramble threat — tools to survive and steal the fight, not to dominate it.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Two unknowns decide everything. First: can Smith close the 9-inch reach gap cleanly? If yes, his wrestling takes over and the fight is his; if Holland keeps it long and makes the entries costly, the veteran's chin and counters keep him alive. Second: what is Smith in Round 3? The database literally cannot answer this — he has never been past the second round, while Holland's output fades to 59% by the third but he owns three five-round wars of deep-water experience. The fade convergence is the throughline: Holland's output craters every round while Smith's control and ground volume rise, so time itself is Smith's ally — but only if he can survive the first ten minutes at range.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Jacobe Smith by Decision (30% probability) — the grind-it-out, control-heavy path where his 118-second/round top game banks rounds against a fading veteran in front of a roaring Oklahoma crowd. Smith's KO/TKO path (20%) is ground-and-pound from top, not a standing knockout (Holland's Elite chin suppresses the stand-up KO), and his submission path (12%) captures the back-take/RNC that de Ridder, Chimaev, and Allen have already shown is available on Holland's neck. Holland's upset lanes: a KO/TKO (16%) when his 81-inch reach and real power crack an entering wrestler, a range-control decision (12%), or the cleanest upset of all — snapping a sloppy level-change into the guillotine (10%).
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 42% | Implied: 38.5%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 30% | Implied: 29.4%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: ~78% | Implied: 72.2%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights Smith's finish rate – All three UFC stoppages came vs. lesser competition.
- • Underprices Holland's Elite chin – 4 KDs in 28 UFC fights extends the fight toward a decision.
- • Misreads the Round-3 unknown – Smith has never seen a third round; the decision line holds value.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Kevin Holland
Best path — 81-inch reach & power vs. 47% striking defense
Range-control, stuff-the-takedowns, out-volume path
Guillotine/front-headlock counter to a sloppy entry
💥Outcome Distribution - Jacobe Smith
Largest path — out-wrestle and win the cards in Oklahoma
Ground-and-pound from top (Parsons/Harrell template)
Back-take/RNC on a neck de Ridder & Chimaev cracked
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Kevin Holland
- • First 10 minutes: Keep it long; bank Rounds 1–2 at range.
- • Make entries cost: Jab, teep, side-kick the lead leg.
- • Guillotine trap: Snap down on a sloppy level-change.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Jacobe Smith
- • Close & change levels: Rank-1 TD engine vs. 55% defense.
- • 118 control-sec/rd: Top position, ground-and-pound, back-takes.
- • Fade convergence: Time is his ally — Holland craters by R3.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A clear lean on the wrestler, held with humility given Smith's 4-round sample
✅Supporting Factors
- • Rank-1 TD rate & 90% completion vs. rank-37, 55% TDDef
- • Holland's losing blueprint: elite wrestlers beat him
- • Trajectories converge — he fades, Smith's control rises
- • Wrestler-vs-Muay-Thai baseline 59.5% + hometown crowd
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Smith's profile rests on just 4 rounds of data
- • The Round-3 void — he has never seen the third
- • Holland's 81" reach, Elite chin & guillotine counter
🏁Executive Summary
This fight is a wrestling-vs-striking referendum, and the wrestler is holding the better hand. Across 100 simulations, in roughly 62 of them Jacobe Smith closes the distance, changes levels, and the wrestling takes over — most often by out-controlling a fading Holland to a decision in front of a roaring Oklahoma crowd (30), frequently by ground-and-pound from a top position Holland's 33-second control average cannot escape (20), and a meaningful share by the back-take or top-position submission that de Ridder, Chimaev, and Allen have already shown is available on his neck (12). Holland is the more proven, more experienced, longer, and more durable man — but what he has most proven is that elite wrestlers beat him, and Smith is the most credentialed wrestler he has ever faced, in the heart of wrestling country, while Holland arrives on a two-fight slide. We hold the lean with real humility: Smith's entire profile rests on a 4-round sample against lesser competition, and he has never seen a third round.
Prediction: Jacobe Smith by Decision most likely (30% probability) by out-wrestling a fading veteran; his finish lanes are ground-and-pound KO/TKO (20%) and the top-position submission (12%). Holland's upset comes via his 81-inch reach and Elite-chin power (KO/TKO 16%), a range-control decision (12%), or the guillotine counter to a sloppy entry (10%). Back the wrestler — but respect the veteran's length and his neck all the way to the final horn.