Alvin Hines vs Allen Frye Jr.
Heavyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Saturday, July 18, 2026 • Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, United States
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Alvin Hines
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Allen Frye Jr.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Alvin Hines
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | Jhonata Diniz | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-04-11 | Billy Ray Valdez | W | KO/TKO (R3, 2:09) |
| 2025-02-15 | Junior Hicks | W | Submission (Arm Triangle) (R1, 1:40) |
| 2025-01-25 | Mark Currier | W | KO/TKO (R1, 1:48) |
| 2024-09-20 | Taylor Escamilla | W | KO/TKO (R2, 2:40) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Allen Frye Jr.
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Guilherme Pat | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-09-06 | Justin Frazier | W | KO/TKO (R1, 2:54) |
| 2025-06-14 | Ryan Shough | W | KO/TKO (R1, 0:30) |
| 2025-01-18 | Cody Beck | W | KO/TKO (R1, 2:15) |
| 2024-07-13 | Mark Gordon | W | KO/TKO (R2, 3:21) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (50.0 vs 48.0) and Grappling Composite (58.0 vs 30.0) — both estimated, not DB-computed. Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Alvin Hines Key Advantages
Hines can end the night two completely different ways: three KO/TKO wins (Currier R1, Escamilla R2, Valdez R3) and three submissions of three different flavors — an arm-triangle (Hicks), a keylock (Will Johnson) and a rear-naked choke (Latu). Frye, by contrast, has six wins and all six are knockouts. A fight between two finishers usually turns on whose second option is better, and here only one man has a second option at all. Hines wins standing or on the mat; Frye can only win standing, early.
This is the fight's pivot. Frye has no submission offense, no wrestling tape, and — most importantly — has never been seen defending a takedown or a submission. Hines owns three career subs from both dominant and scramble positions. Against an opponent with literally zero grappling on tape, that breadth is worth even more than usual: every minute the fight spends in the clinch or on the canvas is uncontested territory for a proven submission hunter. The estimated ~58-to-~30 grappling gap is one-directional.
Hines went the full fifteen minutes with former Glory kickboxer Jhonata Diniz at UFC 317 and was never hurt — he knows how to lose a round and keep fighting, the exact skill Frye lacked against Pat. His LFA finishing run plus a competitive distance fight with a UFC-level striker is a clear notch above Frye's UBG/RDC circuit. And the blueprint already exists: Frye's own debut, where Pat survived the early storm, made it long, and out-worked a one-dimensional front-runner — with an added submission dimension Pat never even needed.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The one scenario where Frye's only weapon is also a fight-ender: Hines walks onto a single clean shot in the opening five minutes — the kind that has finished every opponent Frye has ever beaten. In the highest-knockdown division in the sport, against a 34-year-old whose chin is "functional," not proven granite, that risk never fully closes. Hines must spend the first round inside the blast radius of the hardest single weapon in the bout, and if it lands flush the entire analysis flips.
If Hines respects the power too much and fights tentatively, the bigger, longer, younger man can control range and let the rounds tick by toward a Frye points lead. Hines's striking is a finishing tool, not a points-winning system — he was second-best on the feet against Diniz. If he can't close the distance to grapple against a longer opponent and the fight stays a pure kickboxing match, a fresher athlete could edge a scrappy decision he should otherwise win.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Step one is conceptually simple and physically dangerous: do not get knocked out in the first three minutes. Weather Frye's one dangerous window without trading recklessly in open space. Then take the fight to the clinch and the mat — the single biggest blank in Frye's game — where every grappling second is uncontested. Survive the storm and the fight inverts into exchanges Frye has never had to navigate on tape.
Once it hits the canvas, Hines's three sub flavors give him multiple finishes against an opponent who has never defended one; if the choke or lock doesn't land, top control banks rounds. Above all, make it long — push past minute six, where Frye demonstrably wilts and Hines has proven he keeps producing. The decision (his largest single path) and the submission both open up the deeper the fight goes.
🚀 Allen Frye Jr. Key Advantages
Genuinely elite, division-topping one-punch power: six wins, six knockouts, including a 12-second blowout (Brian Jackson) and a 30-second title-fight blast (Ryan Shough). In heavyweight — the highest-knockdown division in the sport — against a 34-year-old whose chin is functional rather than granite, one clean shot ends the night. That single weapon keeps Frye live in every exchange of the first round and is the entire spine of his case.
Two inches taller (6'4" vs 6'2"), likely the longer fighter, six years younger and the fresher athlete — a former basketball center built on a rangy frame. If he uses the length to land first rather than crashing the cage, his physical tools are the best in the fight. He also proved a tough chin against Pat, eating three rounds of UFC-level damage without folding, which lets him stay in range long enough to land his own. He doesn't need to be well-rounded; he needs to connect once.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The highest-leverage unknown in the fight is Frye's complete lack of grappling tape. He has never shown takedown defense, submission defense, or any ground offense — while Hines has finished three fights by submission. If Hines drags him into a clinch or a scramble, his single least-developed axis is exposed, and a submission loss is firmly on the table. We can't call him helpless on the mat, but against Hines specifically, that blank points one direction.
Exactly as against Pat: the early KO doesn't come, and Frye reverts to a passive cage-press with "minimal results," handing away rounds. His only three-round fight was a fade-and-loss in which he wanted no part of the striking exchanges and was out-worked for fifteen minutes. Against a man proven to fight hard for a full fifteen, fading in the championship minutes turns a missed knockout into a clear decision defeat.
📋 Likely Gameplan
The Pat fight proved Frye's clinch offense is empty, so he must fight at distance behind the jab and the straight — not press and stall against the fence to "minimal results." Use the length to land first and keep the bout a striking match at all costs. Above all, sprawl and stay vertical: the canvas is where his single biggest blank becomes a loss, so every takedown stuffed is a round kept alive.
Frye's win equity is front-loaded into Round 1: load up, use the length, and land the fight-ending shot before grappling or cardio ever matter. Four of his six knockouts are first-round, including 12- and 30-second blasts. But if the early kill doesn't come, the fatal flaw from the Pat fight returns — he must not gas. Manage the pace across three rounds, or the decision is gone the moment the clock passes minute six.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️The Clock Dynamic
Strip the noise and this is a simple, clean matchup: two knockout artists who lost their UFC debuts to rangier strikers, separated by what each does when the knockout doesn't arrive. The fight has a clean internal clock. Frye's win equity is front-loaded into the opening five minutes — four of his six KOs are first-round — and bleeds away with every passing minute. Hines's grows: he was never finished in fifteen UFC minutes with Diniz, and the deeper the water, the more his grappling and gas tank take over. Survive the storm and the fight inverts — into exchanges Frye can't navigate and championship minutes he can't sustain, exactly the arc of his own debut.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Both fighters are data-voids in the analytics engine — no career stats, no computed metrics, no round-by-round — so every composite here is a labeled estimate anchored to the DB-confirmed Heavyweight baseline (22 fighters: SLpM 4.54, StrAcc 53%, KD 1.14, Sub/15 0.45). On the feet the two are roughly level: Frye owns the higher ceiling (any clean shot finishes) while Hines owns the higher floor (he can strike for fifteen minutes without being hurt). The estimated ~15-point technical gap is driven entirely by the grappling chasm — Hines's ~58 versus Frye's ~30 — a clean, one-directional mismatch: a proven multi-method submission threat against a man with no grappling résumé and no tape defending one.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will decide it: surviving Frye's Round-1 knockout window, the grappling exchanges, and the late-fight fade. Frye's power is real and lives almost entirely in the first five minutes; Hines's job is conceptually simple but physically dangerous — do not get knocked out early. The grappling blank is the highest-leverage unknown: Frye has never shown takedown defense, submission defense, or any ground offense, while Hines finishes by submission constantly. And the lone factors that genuinely favor Frye — youth, size, raw power — are non-trivial in the sport's most violent division, which is exactly why this is a lean and not a lock.
🏁Final Prediction
Hines's single largest path is a decision (22%) — the more complete, busier fighter out-working a one-dimensional opponent over three rounds, the exact script Pat ran on Frye. His 20% submission is the matchup's signature edge (three career subs against a man with zero grappling tape), and his 15% KO/TKO reflects real but not elite power against a durable opponent. Frye's dominant lane is KO/TKO (32%), almost all of it concentrated in Round 1; his 9% decision is low by design after a fade-and-loss with empty clinch offense, and his 2% submission is a token scramble-fluke figure. Combined finish rate sits near 69%, appropriate for two career heavyweight finishers.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 20% | Implied: 18.2%
GOOD VALUE
Model: ~80% | Implied: 71.4%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 69% | Implied: 66.7%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Underprices the grappling mismatch – Frye has never defended a submission on tape; +450 Hines sub is structurally cheap.
- • Slow to price the fade – Frye's only long fight was a fade-and-loss, pushing Over 1.5 past the early window more often than the market implies.
- • Treats power as a points system – Frye has no Plan B once the first-round KO misses.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Alvin Hines
Largest single path — out-working a one-note opponent
Real but not elite power vs a durable opponent
Signature edge — 3 career subs vs zero grappling tape
💥Outcome Distribution - Allen Frye Jr.
Dominant path — elite power, almost all in Round 1
Low by design — size/youth steal a scrappy long fight
Token scramble-fluke — never won by submission
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Allen Frye Jr.
- • First 5 minutes: Highest knockout equity — 4 of 6 career KOs land in Round 1.
- • Land first: Use the length and fight at range — not pressing the cage to "minimal results."
- • Stay vertical: Sprawl and keep it a striking match; the canvas is where the blank becomes a loss.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Alvin Hines
- • Survive the storm: Weather Round 1 without trading recklessly in open space.
- • Take it to the mat: Attack the biggest blank in Frye's game — every grappling second is uncontested.
- • Late minutes: Hunt the submission or bank control as Frye fades past minute six.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A clear but humble lean on the more complete fighter — the only man here with a Plan B and a proven 15-minute tank
✅Supporting Factors
- • The only fighter with a second method — three career submissions and a proven three-round tank
- • Frye's own debut is the blueprint: survive the early KO window and a front-runner has no answers
- • The grappling mismatch is total — Frye has never defended a submission on tape
- • Beat better competition (LFA) and already lasted fifteen UFC minutes
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Both fighters are data-voids — every composite here is an estimate
- • Heavyweight variance is the sport's highest; Frye hits harder than anyone in the bout
- • Frye is younger, bigger, and likely longer — the physical tools favor him
🏁Executive Summary
Across 100 simulations two stories recur. In roughly 57, Alvin Hines's completeness decides the night — most often by surviving Frye's first-round storm and then taking over: out-working a one-dimensional opponent for the cards (22), dragging him into a submission on his most untested axis (20), or landing his own clubbing power once Frye fades (15). He is the more rounded, better-tested fighter, the only one here with a documented Plan B. In the other 43, the simplest weapon in the fight ends it — Frye walks Hines onto the kind of clean, early shot that has finished every opponent he has ever beaten (32), or his size and youth steal a scrappy decision (9). At heavyweight that path never closes.
Prediction: Alvin Hines by decision (22%) or submission (20%) — his grappling against a man with zero defensive tape is the matchup's signature edge; Frye's live upset lane is the Round-1 KO/TKO (32%) that has ended every fight he has ever won. This bout is decided by the clock: the puncher must land early or watch a more complete, better-conditioned veteran drag it into the championship minutes he has already proven he cannot handle. A measured five-and-not-higher lean on Hines.