Felipe Franco vs Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Light Heavyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Saturday, July 18, 2026 • Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
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Felipe Franco
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Felipe Franco
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Mario Pinto | L | U-DEC (3 Rounds) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2026-02-07 | Douglas Felipe Santos | W | SUB (Rear-Naked Choke) (R1, —) |
| 2025-12-11 | Kleberson Tavares | W | KO/TKO (R1, —) |
| 2025-09-09 | Freddy Vidal | L | SUB (R3, —) |
| 2024-08-31 | Murilo Ferreira | W | SUB (R1, —) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Levi Rodrigues Jr.
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-14 | Freddy Vidal | NC | No Contest (orig. KO — PED-overturned) (R1, 3:20) |
| 2025-09-05 | A. Ribeiro | W | KO/TKO (R1, 2:47) |
| 2025-04-26 | J. Pereira | W | TKO (Injury) (R3, 0:21) |
| 2023-05-27 | J. Lima | W | KO/TKO (R2, 1:28) |
| 2022-11-04 | L. Genuíno | W | KO/TKO (R1, 2:32) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (56 vs 58) and Grappling Composite (46 vs 30) — both estimated, as neither fighter is computed in the database. Balances striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Felipe Franco Key Advantages
Franco can end the night with his hands or on the back — six KO/TKO wins and four submissions, three of them rear-naked chokes. Levi's only finishing language is strikes. If either man gets hurt in an exchange, Franco has a follow-up route his opponent simply cannot replicate: drag down, take the back, and hunt the choke. This is his single cleanest edge in the matchup — the only proven submission game in the cage — and it converts a meaningful slice of "hurt opponent" sequences into finishes that Levi has no structural answer for. Every Franco win has come inside Round 1, so the threat is immediate from the opening bell.
Four bouts between September 2025 and March 2026 mean Franco arrives sharp, conditioned, and accustomed to fight week. Levi has not competed since October 2025 and is emerging from a nine-month suspension on top of a prior multi-year layoff — the timing-and-rust gap favors Franco meaningfully in the opening minutes, exactly when this fight is most likely to be decided. In a first-round-or-bust collision between two early finishers, the man who is in rhythm and timing-sharp holds the first-strike advantage, and that man is Franco. His youth (25 to Levi's 29) in a near-mirror frame only reinforces the recovery-and-freshness edge.
Franco has already walked to an Octagon, absorbed the moment, and competed for fifteen minutes against a UFC-caliber opponent (Mario Pinto) in his March 2026 debut. Levi's lone big-stage appearance — the DWCS knockout of Freddy Vidal — is voided as a No Contest, and this is his first real Octagon walk. Big-stage composure is an unmeasured variable for Levi and at least a modest known quantity for Franco. He is also the busier, two-dimensional, more battle-tested fighter, with the only rung of verified UFC-level competition on either résumé. None of these men has faced ranked opposition, but Franco owns the one extra step up.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Franco fails to finish in Round 1 — exactly as he failed against Vidal and Pinto — and the fight settles into the second and third rounds, where his entire career record says he loses. He has never won a bout that reached Round 2: Vidal weathered the opening surge and submitted him in the third, and Pinto simply out-worked him across fifteen minutes in his UFC debut. His own best path (the early finish) is also his only path, so if he over-commits hunting it and gasses his initial burst, a fresher (if rusty) Levi can take over in the deeper water Franco has twice failed in.
Franco eats a clean Levi knee or right hand in an early firefight. His chin is formally Unknown — no knockdown ledger exists — and his striking defense was visibly exposed by Pinto, so a single connection from a 5-for-5 knockout artist can end it before Franco's activity edge ever matters. Levi's power is a live equalizer at every second of every round; the one prop the data void does not obscure is that this fight has elevated first-round-finish equity for both men. If Franco crashes the pocket recklessly to brawl, the knee up the middle that finished Vidal is exactly the weapon waiting for him.
📋 Likely Gameplan
All ten of Franco's wins are Round-1 finishes — detonating early is the whole game. He must throw heavy, accurate volume from the opening bell and try to overwhelm a rusty, debuting opponent before Levi's timing returns. Urgency is not a preference here; it is survival, because his record in extended fights is 0-2. He cannot afford to coast into Levi's power across fifteen minutes — the longer this fight lasts, the more his front-loaded advantage erodes and the more Levi's untested-but-fresher deep water becomes the story. Pressure, accuracy, and a fast start are his entire formula.
When the early knockout doesn't land, Franco should change levels and chase the one tool Levi cannot match — the back take and the rear-naked choke. Three of his four submissions are RNCs, and a hurt or off-balance Levi, with zero submission defense on record, is a live back-take opportunity. This is the route that turns an even, high-variance striking exchange into a finish in Franco's favor. He must also respect the knee in the clinch — Vidal was knee'd into oblivion — and avoid giving Levi clean clinch real estate while he works to drag the fight to the mat.
🚀 Levi Rodrigues Jr. Key Advantages
The cross-reference is stark: Levi knocked Freddy Vidal out in Round 1 (knee and punches), while that same Vidal submitted Franco in Round 3. Against shared-level competition, Levi did precisely what Franco could not — finish Vidal — and avoided what beat Franco: the long fight. The caveat is real — Levi's Vidal performance is the PED-tainted, overturned No Contest, so its predictive value is genuinely reduced — but even discounted, it is the strongest single data point pointing his way, and it confirms both that Levi can be a one-shot finisher and that Franco can be dragged into deep water and submitted.
A Muay Thai base out of São Paulo's Inside Muay Thai, with knees and heavy hands, means one clean connection ends the night — every one of Levi's five wins is by knockout. Against a man whose striking defense was exposed by Pinto and whose chin is formally unproven, Levi's power is a live equalizer at every second of every round. He is, on raw finishing power alone, plausibly the harder single puncher in the cage. And Franco's documented late-fade is his safety net: if Levi survives the opening surge, he is facing a fighter who has lost every bout that left Round 1 — once by submission, once on the cards.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Franco hurts Levi and takes the back. With zero submission defense on record, Levi has no answer to the rear-naked choke that is Franco's signature — three of his four submissions are RNCs, and his habit is to follow a hurt opponent straight to the back. Scramble awareness is Levi's single biggest vulnerability: never give up the back, never get flattened out. Because his only finishing language is strikes, any sequence that hits the mat flips sharply against him, and the very explosiveness that defines his game offers no protection once the fight becomes a grappling exchange.
Nine months out, on top of a prior near-two-year gap, the rust shows immediately — Levi's timing is off in the opening two minutes while Franco, sharp from four recent fights, lands first and swarms. The single biggest unknown in the entire matchup is Levi's true current level post-suspension, post-PED, post-layoff. If the substance that may have supported his explosiveness is gone, and his power and gas tank under-deliver, Franco's volume and second-dimension finishing can carry the early rounds before any question of fade ever arises. He is dangerous and unbeaten, but he is also untested in deep water and making his first true Octagon walk.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Franco's danger is almost entirely concentrated in Round 1. Levi's first job is to weather the opening storm with disciplined defense — stay off the fence, keep his hands up, and refuse to be dragged into a wild early brawl. If he survives those first five minutes, the fight tilts toward the man whose opponent has never won past Round 1. Patience and composure under the early surge are worth more to Levi than any single counter; the clock itself is his ally, because every minute the fight escapes Round 1 erodes Franco's edge and feeds Levi's untested-but-fresh deep water and his proven one-shot power.
Every Levi win is by strike, so his path is a clean connection on the feet. He must deny the level change and the back, stay vertical, and let his power play — defend the choke at all costs, never give up his back, never get flattened out. His best finish, the knockout of Vidal, came on knees in the clinch, so if Franco crashes the pocket to brawl, the knee up the middle is live. The blueprint is simple: survive the opening storm, keep the fight where his hands and knees decide it, and trust that one clean shot from a 5-for-5 knockout artist makes the whole question moot.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
⏱️The Internal Clock
Strip everything away and this is a first-round-or-bust collision between two unmeasured finishers. Franco's win equity is concentrated entirely in Round 1 — all ten of his wins — and measurably collapses after it, where he is 0-2. Levi's equity clusters in Rounds 1–2, with the back half of his fights merely a blank rather than a proven negative. The fight therefore has a clean internal clock: the opening five minutes are the highest-variance, most decisive window of the night, and both men know it. Expect an early firefight, expect it to be violent, and expect a real chance it ends before the data void on either man ever stops mattering.
🎯Technical Breakdown
There is, candidly, no two-sided statistical comparison to make — the database cannot grade either man, and the UFC fight log holds nothing for either. What survives the data void are qualitative, web-anchored facts: both are extreme early finishers (Franco 100% Round 1; Levi 100% by KO); Franco adds a submission dimension (four subs, three RNCs) that Levi lacks entirely; Franco owns the only verified UFC-level mileage and a vastly better recent activity profile; and Levi carries a PED-overturned signature win plus a nine-month layoff. The numbers don't pick this fight — the profiles do, and they nudge marginally toward the busier, two-dimensional, more battle-tested Franco, with low confidence. Estimated composites give Franco a Technical Score edge (~51 vs ~44) built on dimensionality, not raw power.
🧩The Three Unknowns
Three questions decide everything. First, whose chin holds? Both knockdown ledgers are blank in the database — two power finishers with unproven durability is the definition of a high-variance exchange. Second, how much of Levi survived the layoff and the PED question? Nine months out, prior multi-year gaps, and a tainted signature win make his true current level the single largest uncertainty in the fight. Third, can Franco win a fight that leaves Round 1? He never has — if Levi survives the storm, the question answers itself. The cleanest pattern requiring no invented data is the clash of Franco's documented late-fade against Levi's untested-but-rusty deep water, and it is what keeps this fight genuinely live for either man.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Felipe Franco by KO/TKO (30% probability) — an in-rhythm Round-1 finisher with six KO wins overwhelming a rusty, debuting opponent in an early firefight. Franco's submission path (13%) is the dimension Levi cannot answer: three career RNCs and a habit of taking the back off hurt opponents. His decision share (12%) is deliberately suppressed — he has never won past Round 1. Levi's primary lane is KO/TKO (26%): one clean knee or right hand from a 5-for-5 knockout artist against an unproven chin. His decision path (17%) captures the clock — survive the storm and out-last a man whose deep-water record is 0-2 — and is higher than Franco's decision share by design. Levi by submission (2%) is a token figure.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 44% | Implied: 39.2%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 71% | Implied: 73.0%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 45% | Implied: 47.6%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • A fragile line on two data voids – Neither fighter is measured; a 55/45 number is inherently soft.
- • Underweights the first-round finish – Two extreme early finishers make Under 1.5 Rounds (+155) the one true edge.
- • Discounts Franco's second dimension – His three-RNC back-take route is the only submission threat in the cage.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Felipe Franco
Primary path — Round-1 power vs a rusty debutant
Back-take and RNC off a hurt opponent — Levi's blind spot
Suppressed — he has never won past Round 1
💥Outcome Distribution - Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Near-entire win condition — one clean shot ends it
Survive the storm and out-last a 0-2 deep-water opponent
Token figure — zero career submissions
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Levi Rodrigues Jr.
- • Survive the first five: Weather Franco's Round-1 storm with discipline.
- • Keep it standing: One clean knee or right hand from a 5-for-5 KO artist ends it.
- • Defend the choke: Never give up the back to a three-RNC finisher.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Felipe Franco
- • Detonate early: All ten career wins are Round-1 finishes.
- • Hunt the back: If the KO stalls, change levels and chase the RNC.
- • Beat the clock: Finish before his 0-2 deep water ever arrives.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A modest lean — neither fighter can be measured by the database
✅Supporting Factors
- • Two finishing dimensions (6 KO + 4 SUB) to Levi's one
- • Vastly busier — 4 fights in 7 months vs a 9-month layoff
- • Only verified UFC-level reps; younger in a mirror frame
- • The only proven submission game in the cage (3 RNCs)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Both fighters are complete data voids — a fragile line
- • Franco has never won past Round 1 (0-2 deep water)
- • Common opponent cuts against the lean — Levi KO'd Vidal
- • Levi's one-shot power is a live equalizer every second
🏁Executive Summary
This fight is decided by the clock and by variance, not by a spreadsheet that does not exist for either man — both are complete data voids, with no career stats, no metrics, no fight log and no chin ledger in the database. What survives the void are the patterns: Franco is a Round-1 wrecking ball who has won all ten of his career fights inside the opening round and lost every bout that escaped it (0-2 past Round 1), while Levi is an all-knockout "Baby Monster" arriving off a nine-month PED suspension and long inactivity into a true Octagon debut. Franco's edge is real but front-loaded — his activity, his youth, and a second finishing dimension (three rear-naked chokes) Levi cannot answer in kind — and every minute the fight survives Round 1 erodes it and feeds Levi's untested-but-fresher deep water and genuine one-shot power.
Prediction: Felipe Franco at 55% (KO/TKO 30%, Submission 13%, Decision 12%), a low-conviction (3/10) lean on the busier, two-dimensional, more battle-tested finisher; Levi Rodrigues Jr. at 45% (KO/TKO 26%, Decision 17%, Submission 2%). Franco finishes in the first round or he is in a fight he has never learned how to win — and "Baby Monster" only needs one clean shot to make the whole question moot. The one prop the data void does not obscure is the early ending: Under 1.5 Rounds (+155) is the best value on the board.