Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman
Middleweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Saturday, July 18, 2026 • Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, United States
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Dricus Du Plessis
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Kamaru Usman
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Dricus Du Plessis
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-16 | Khamzat Chimaev | L | U-DEC (5 Rounds) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-08 | Sean Strickland | W | U-DEC (5 Rounds) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-17 | Israel Adesanya | W | SUB (Rear-Naked Choke) (R4, 3:38) |
| 2024-01-20 | Sean Strickland | W | S-DEC (5 Rounds) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-08 | Robert Whittaker | W | KO/TKO (R2, 2:23) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Kamaru Usman
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Joaquin Buckley | W | U-DEC (5 Rounds) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-21 | Khamzat Chimaev | L | M-DEC (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-18 | Leon Edwards | L | M-DEC (5 Rounds) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-08-20 | Leon Edwards | L | KO/TKO (Head Kick) (R5, 4:04) |
| 2021-11-06 | Colby Covington | W | U-DEC (5 Rounds) (R5, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (52.3 vs 63.9) and Grappling Composite (51.3 vs 71.9). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Dricus Du Plessis Key Advantages
Du Plessis is a true, full-sized middleweight (6'1", 43" leg reach) and seven years younger — 32 to Usman's 39. Usman is climbing up from 170 for the first time in years and will likely be the smaller, lighter man on fight night. In the clinch, in scrambles, and in the simple physics of being driven into the fence, mass and freshness matter, and Du Plessis owns both. The single most decisive physical fact here is that the elite wrestler across from him is the older, smaller man, while the documented takedown-defense hole belongs to the bigger, younger one.
Usman's only real finishing equity is power, but it is old (his last stoppage was 2021) and it was built at welterweight. Du Plessis has never been knocked down in his tracked career — 0 knockdowns absorbed, an 8.00 KD-exchange ratio, Iron chin tier. Usman's most realistic finish path, a deep-water TKO of a tired man (the Covington Round 5 template), runs straight into the one chin in the division that has never cracked. That collapses his KO probability toward a thin residual and forces the legend into the hardest possible task: a 25-minute decision grind against a man with championship cardio of his own.
Du Plessis can win in every round and in every way: a 39% career KO rate with power that peaks in Rounds 2–4, and a 48% submission rate (11 career subs, including the rear-naked choke of Adesanya) that hunts chokes off the scramble. Crucially, Usman's path requires shooting takedowns, and every level change against Du Plessis is an invitation into a guillotine or RNC. Layer on an output that climbs into the championship rounds — his third is his single biggest round at 29.3 significant strikes — against a 39-year-old who must burn enormous energy controlling a bigger man, and the deep water belongs to the South African.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
His 66.7% slow-start rate meets Usman's fast start: he concedes Rounds 1–2 to takedowns and control before his pressure engine warms up — exactly the Chimaev script — and in a five-rounder that hole is hard to dig out of. His 35% takedown defense simply cannot stop a determined elite wrestler, so Usman banks two to three minutes of control a round while Du Plessis spends the night standing back up instead of finishing.
If Du Plessis over-commits to the firefight, Usman's elite low-absorption counter game (2.67 SApM, 1.66 damage ratio) can pick him apart cleanly while stealing rounds on the cards — his striking is below-average accuracy and above-average absorption. And if he chases the finish on a fading Usman in Rounds 4–5, he can get predictable: one sharp, disciplined level-change from the legend steals the decisive late round and the decision.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Du Plessis's 66.7% slow-start rate is the single habit that loses this fight. He must contest Round 1 — establish the leg kicks (his R1 game is 30.7% legs) and his top-10 volume early so Usman can't quietly bank the opener with a takedown. Win the volume war standing, force a pace that taxes a 39-year-old's new-weight gas tank, and let his own output grow into Rounds 3–5 where it peaks.
He won't stuff every shot at 35% takedown defense, but every defended or scrambled takedown drains a 39-year-old climbing in weight. He should threaten the guillotine and RNC off Usman's level changes to make the wrestler hesitate to shoot, then make the fight heavy, ugly and long — everything Du Plessis does best gets better as the fight gets uglier. His power and submissions cluster in Rounds 2–4; if Usman slows, the late finish becomes a real KO or submission threat.
🚀 Kamaru Usman Key Advantages
This is the whole fight for Usman. His takedown offense (est rank ~6/46, TD/15 2.79, 126 career clinch takedowns at 44%) aimed at Du Plessis's bottom-five 35% takedown defense is a textbook mismatch — and it is exactly how Du Plessis lost his last fight to Chimaev. If Usman can get the bigger man down, he controls (124 seconds per round) and banks rounds. His own 90% takedown defense, meanwhile, makes him essentially un-takedownable by a striker.
Usman owns the gold-standard championship cardio: nine five-round fights, output that increases into the deep rounds (champ_output 113%), and control that never dips. He absorbs almost nothing (2.67 SApM, est rank ~6) and out-damages opponents (1.66 damage ratio, est rank ~5) — precisely the disciplined counter-jabber who can make a volume brawler miss and pay. He has already proven he can hang at 185 in a competitive decision with Chimaev, and he is the highest-IQ championship-distance problem-solver Du Plessis has ever faced.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
At 39 carrying 185 pounds for 25 minutes, the largest "if" in the fight is whether his legs and takedown-hold strength survive. If they go in Round 3, the takedowns stop landing or stop holding, and the bigger man's growing pressure (R3 29.3, R5 27.0 significant strikes) buries him late. Holding a full-sized, scrambling middleweight down is a different physical task than controlling welterweights — and he must do it round after round off a long layoff.
Every takedown attempt is also a small invitation into Du Plessis's best finishing real estate. A shot that lands him in a guillotine or a scramble hands the division's most prolific submission finisher (11 career subs) the exact opening he wants. And Usman's offense is dormant — his last finish was 2021, his Sub/15 is just 0.09 — so if the wrestling stops working he has no finishing answer to turn the tide against an iron-chinned, higher-volume opponent.
📋 Likely Gameplan
TD/15 2.79 into 35% takedown defense — it's the whole fight. Change levels early and often, get Du Plessis to the mat, and control (124 seconds per round). Do not get drawn into a volume firefight with an iron-chinned, bigger man. Bank Rounds 1–2 against the slow starter before the South African's pressure engine arrives, and lean on a 90% takedown defense to keep the fight where it's chosen.
Usman won't KO this chin, so the win is a control-and-counter decision he must grind out. Use the jab (0.76 rate) and relentless body work (27–31% every round) to win exchanges on quality and absorb almost nothing (2.67 SApM). Wrestle tight, respect the guillotine, avoid the front headlock, and out-IQ the brawler over 25 minutes the way he out-thought Covington and Masvidal.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Size & Weight-Class Dynamics
The tale of the tape is nearly a mirror — identical 76" reach, one inch of height, two inches of leg reach to Du Plessis — so the decisive physical facts live off the tape: the weight class and the birth certificates. Du Plessis is a true, full-sized middleweight; Usman is a career welterweight making the move up to 185 at 39, the oldest version of him the sport has seen. On fight night Usman will likely be the smaller, lighter man for the first time in years, against an opponent who walks around far heavier and is seven years younger. The single most decisive fact is therefore not reach — it is that the elite wrestler in this fight is the older, smaller man, and the documented takedown-defense hole belongs to the bigger, younger one.
🎯Technical Breakdown
On the context-free composite, Usman grades meaningfully higher (Overall 74.9 vs 64.9) — the more accurate, far more defensively sound striker (2.67 SApM, 1.66 damage ratio) and the more complete grappler. His takedown offense (TD/15 2.79, est rank ~6/46) aimed at Du Plessis's bottom-five 35% takedown defense is the matchup-defining lever — exactly the one Chimaev pulled. But two giant caveats sit on top of that number: every Usman input was built at welterweight against smaller men, and the composite is blind to age, size, weight-jump, recency, and finishing threat. Du Plessis is the bigger, higher-volume, harder-to-hurt force — top-10 volume, an Iron chin that has never touched the canvas, and a two-way finishing threat (39% KO / 48% sub) the legend must respect for 25 minutes.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will decide it: Usman's wrestling vs Du Plessis's 35% takedown defense, the submission scramble that lives off Usman's own shots, and the late-round cardio-and-age question. The Chimaev common-opponent read cuts both ways — Chimaev out-grappled both men, proving Du Plessis is controllable but durable, and that Usman could compete at 185 yet not impose his own wrestling on an elite grappler. Against each other the exchange flips: Du Plessis is a striker, not a wrestler, so Usman's takedowns are far more likely to land here. The decisive question the data cannot answer is whether a 39-year-old's legs and takedown-hold strength survive 25 minutes against a bigger man whose output peaks in Round 3 (29.3 significant strikes).
🏁Final Prediction
The model lands on Dricus Du Plessis at 65%. His single largest path is KO/TKO (28%) — power that grows into Rounds 2–4 against a fading 39-year-old climbing in weight — closely followed by a decision (26%) where he survives the early takedowns, wins the volume war, and out-works a tiring Usman. His submission path (11%) is real and specific: Usman's own takedown attempts feed the scramble where Du Plessis hunts the guillotine and RNC. Usman's 35% is almost entirely a control-decision (30%) — wrestle, control 124 seconds a round, bank the early frames against the slow starter — with only a thin KO residual (4%) and a token submission share (1%). The composite crowns the legend; the cage belongs to the champion.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 39% | Market implied: 35.7%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 44% | Market implied: 42.6%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 62% | Market implied: 60%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overrates the wrestling exploit – Public money chases the GOAT-wrestler, drifting Du Plessis's price.
- • Underprices the age & weight-jump – A 39-year-old climbing a division is a real, unmodeled fade.
- • Anchors on the Iron chin – "This goes to the cards" underprices a late stoppage of a tiring legend.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Dricus Du Plessis
Survives the early wrestling, wins the volume war
Power that grows into Rounds 2–4 on a fading man
Guillotine/RNC off Usman's own takedown shots
💥Outcome Distribution - Kamaru Usman
Thin residual — a perfect late shot on a tired man
His primary path: wrestle, control, grind the cards
Token figure — Sub/15 0.09, essentially never attempts
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Kamaru Usman
- • Rounds 1–2: Bank early control against the slow starter.
- • Level changes: TD/15 2.79 into a 35% takedown defense.
- • Tight wrestling: Grind the clock; avoid the guillotine.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Dricus Du Plessis
- • Volume war: Top-10 output that grows into the deep rounds.
- • Two-way threat: 39% KO / 48% sub off the scramble.
- • Rounds 3–5: Pressure compounds as the older tank fades.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A measured lean — we bet context over a composite that grades the underdog higher
✅Supporting Factors
- • Bigger, younger, fresher natural middleweight (32 vs 39)
- • Iron chin (0 KD absorbed) neutralizes Usman's finishing
- • Two-way finishing: 39% KO / 48% sub in every round
- • Recency: 9-1 at this weight vs Usman 2-3 in last five
⚠️Risk Factors
- • The composite grades Usman higher (74.9 vs 64.9)
- • 35% takedown defense is a proven, exploitable hole
- • Usman is the best five-round fighter in history
- • A 66.7% slow-start rate gifts away early rounds
🏁Executive Summary
Across 100 simulations we see two clean, recurring stories. In roughly 65, Dricus Du Plessis wins — most often by finding the finish his power and submissions make inevitable once a 39-year-old's takedowns stop holding in Rounds 3–5 and the pressure compounds; the rest by surviving the early wrestling, winning the volume war, and either out-working or choking out a fading legend. He is the bigger man, the younger man, the harder man to hurt, and the man who gets better as the fight gets uglier and longer. In the other 35, Kamaru Usman turns back the clock — changing levels into that 35% takedown defense from the opening minute, banking the early rounds against a slow starter, controlling 124 seconds a round, and grinding out the decision that is his only true path. The wrestling exploit is real and proven; the question the data cannot answer is whether the legs and the engine that powered it still answer the bell at 39, a division up, off a long layoff.
Prediction: Dricus Du Plessis at 65%, with KO/TKO (28%) his single largest path, a decision (26%) close behind, and a real submission lane (11%) fed by Usman's own takedown attempts. Usman's 35% is almost entirely a control-decision (30%). The composite crowns the legend, but the cage belongs to the champion: too big, too durable, and too relentless for a 39-year-old climbing a weight class to out-grind — and the longer it lasts, the worse it gets for Usman.