Jose Delgado vs Austin Bashi
Featherweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Saturday, July 18, 2026 • Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
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Jose Delgado
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Austin Bashi
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Jose Delgado
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Andre Fili | W | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-10-25 | Nathaniel Wood | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-06-28 | Hyder Amil | W | KO/TKO (R1, 0:26) |
| 2025-02-15 | Connor Matthews | W | KO/TKO (R1, 2:58) |
| 2024-08-13 | Ernie Juarez | W | KO/TKO (R2, —) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Austin Bashi
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-02 | John Yannis | W | Submission (R1, 3:39) |
| 2025-01-11 | Christian Rodriguez | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-03 | Dorian Ramos | W | Submission (R2, 3:15) |
| 2024-06-01 | Zac Riley | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:48) |
| 2023-09-30 | Askar Askar | W | Submission (Choke) (R2, 1:48) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (58 est. vs 33) and Grappling Composite (40 est. vs 71). Delgado has no DB row, so his composites are estimates from the public record; Bashi's are fully database-computed across the 45-fighter featherweight division.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Jose Delgado Key Advantages
Five inches of height (5'11" vs 5'6") and a four-inch reach edge (74" vs 70") is a large differential at featherweight, and Delgado fights from a switch stance that lets him load power from both orthodox and southpaw at the end of his range. Against a 5'6" opponent who must close distance to do anything, that reach is not cosmetic — it is the toll Bashi has to pay, repeatedly, on every entry, in front of a man with genuine one-shot power. Every meter Bashi must cover to reach his grappling is a meter spent in a power puncher's kill zone.
A 54.5% career KO rate (6 of 11), a 26-second KO of Hyder Amil — one of the fastest stoppages of the year — and a clinch-knee KO on the Contender Series establish power that does not need a clean setup to matter. Bashi carries the lowest striking volume in the entire division (45/45) and a 49% striking defense (35/45); he will be in range, and he will get touched. Delgado only needs one of those exchanges to go his way, and his opponent's own knockdown threat is effectively zero (0.00 KD average), so there is little to deter him from swinging.
Both of Delgado's losses are decisions; in 13 pro fights no one has stopped him. That durability lets him weather Bashi's grappling pressure without fearing a sudden ending, since Bashi's KO threat is minimal (0 career knockdowns dealt). Just as important, the split-decision win over the durable gatekeeper Andre Fili proves Delgado can now win a competitive three-rounder on the cards — a second, tactical path to victory. If he stuffs enough takedowns and keeps it standing, he no longer has to rely solely on the highlight finish.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Delgado's takedown defense is the single biggest blank in this fight — no opponent he has faced wrestles like Bashi (TD/15 7.81, rank 1/45). If Bashi's elite level-changes travel against this level, Delgado's unproven defense folds and he spends three rounds buried under roughly 129 seconds of control per round, swept on the cards exactly the way Bashi grinds out his decisions. The whole fight likely turns on whether that first deep shot gets stuffed at the fence or lands clean.
Bashi is an Early Hunter with the division's third-best submission rate (Sub/15 1.67, rank 3/45). If Delgado overcommits to the early finish, gasses, or gets sloppy in a scramble, he can be caught in a choke in Round 1 or 2. And if the fight simply reaches Round 3, the Wood pattern reappears: Delgado's output erodes against a fresher, control-heavy 24-year-old "Strong Finisher" who accelerates late and takes over the championship minutes. The longer it lasts, the more it tilts away from him.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use the four-inch reach and switch stance to pepper from distance and force Bashi to wade through fire on every entry. Jab, lead-leg kicks, and stance switches keep the shorter man reaching, and every level change Bashi attempts becomes a knockout opportunity rather than a free takedown. The strategic priority is simple: never let the fight be fought at Bashi's chest-to-chest, fence-pinning range without making him pay a price in clean shots to get there.
Bashi's entries are his most exposed moments — a knee up the middle or an uppercut on the duck-under is the cleanest finish path against a wrestler who has to lower his head to enter. Just as critical is defending the very first takedown: Bashi's confidence and round-winning math are built on early control, so stuffing his first one or two attempts at the fence deflates the entire blueprint and turns it into the striking match Delgado wins. If the finish isn't there, the Fili template — stay off the mat, win the exchanges, bank the rounds — is the fallback.
🚀 Austin Bashi Key Advantages
Bashi's takedown rate of 7.81 per 15 minutes is rank 1/45 — the best in the entire featherweight division — backed by a two-time All-State wrestling pedigree and a 41.2% clinch-TD conversion (28 of 68). Delgado's takedown defense is a complete unknown, and no opponent he has faced changes levels like this. If Bashi's grappling travels against this level, he can repeatedly drag a power-puncher to the one place strikers least want to be — and his round-winning math runs on exactly that early control.
A submission rate of 1.67 per 15 minutes (rank 3/45), six career submission wins, and a no-gi brown-belt world title make Bashi a finisher, not just a position-holder — and the choke is live every time the fight hits the mat against an unproven defensive grappler. Reinforcing it is elite control time (roughly 129 seconds per round) plus an iron-durability, Strong-Finisher cardio profile: never knocked down in 15 fights, 0% slow starts, and a 125% R3/R1 output. Time on top is time Delgado's power cannot be deployed, and Bashi gets stronger as the fight gets deeper.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
To grapple, Bashi has to enter a 74-inch power-puncher's range, and his own KO deterrent is near zero — so Delgado has every incentive to keep swinging. His first deep entry can meet a knee or a counter, and the man with a 26-second KO on his résumé ends it early. Bashi's iron durability has never been tested by this caliber of power at this size; the one clean shot it has never had to absorb is exactly the shot Delgado is built to land on the way in.
If Delgado's takedown defense holds — as Christian Rodriguez's did on Bashi's debut — the fight becomes a striking contest Bashi simply cannot win with the division's worst volume (SLpM 1.75, 45/45). He gets touched repeatedly closing distance (49% StrDef, 35/45), accumulates damage on the way in, and drops a lopsided decision: the Rodriguez sequel, only against a bigger, far harder-hitting version of that exact problem. Deny the takedown, make it a kickboxing match, and the output gap does the rest.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Bashi can't win at range, so the entire plan is to minimize range time. Close behind level-change feints and angles — never straight lines into a switch-stance puncher's centerline — get hands on, drive to the fence, and start the clinch-takedown game (41.2% conversion) where his strength lives. The faster he turns a striking exchange into a grappling exchange, the less time he spends in the kill zone and the more the fight is played on his terms.
Once on top, score early and control often: his round-winning currency is control time (roughly 129 sec/rd), not strikes, so he should advance position and make every round a grappling round in the judges' eyes. He's an Early Hunter, and the choke is his finish — but he must not get reckless against a grappling-literate scrambler with four career subs of his own. If the finish isn't there, lean on the iron chin and youth: weather the early power, drag it to Round 3, and accelerate when Delgado's output erodes.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Distance & The Specialist Clash
This is a clean power-striker vs. wrestle-grappler fight decided by who imposes their range. Delgado's 74-inch reach and switch stance let him fight at the end of his range, where his power lives; Bashi, five inches shorter, has to close that distance to do the one thing he does at an elite level. Bashi cannot out-strike anyone — he is the division's lowest-volume striker (45/45) — so his sole route is the takedown, and every level change is a moment of exposure to a knee, an uppercut, or a counter. The fight reduces to a single question: can the elite grappler merge onto his one lane against a bigger, harder-hitting man, or does that man keep it standing and turn the cage into a kill zone the way Christian Rodriguez did?
🎯Technical Breakdown
This is an asymmetric-data fight, and we flag it up front: Bashi is measured down to his round-by-round control time (id 107, division-ranked across 45 featherweights, data quality 1.00), while Delgado is a roster row plus a fight log — no career stats, no computed metrics. What the database does say is decisive on one side: Bashi owns the division-best takedown rate (TD/15 7.81, 1/45) and the third-best submission rate (Sub/15 1.67, 3/45) while absorbing almost nothing (SApM 2.34, 5/45). What it cannot see is Delgado's takedown defense — the single most important number in the fight — and that void is the largest swing factor. His estimated power-striking composite (~58) offsets Bashi's dead-last striking (33); the composites land close (Delgado ~49 vs Bashi 52), but the deciding factor is not the average — it is whose specialty imposes.
🧩Three Questions That Decide It
First, can Delgado stop the takedown? Bashi is 1/45 at getting them; Delgado's defense is a blank. If it holds (the Rodriguez model), Delgado likely wins a striking fight; if it doesn't, Bashi grinds a decision or finds the choke. This is the fight. Second, can Bashi survive the entries? He has to walk into a 74-inch power-puncher's range with almost no KO deterrent of his own, and his iron durability has never been tested by this caliber of power at this size. Third, where does the clock point? Early belongs to Delgado's power; late belongs to Bashi's elite control and Strong-Finisher cardio (125% R3/R1, four years younger). The longer it lasts, the more it tilts toward the grappler — if he is still in it.
🏁Final Prediction
The model lands on Jose Delgado at 54%, with his 32% KO/TKO path his single largest and most distinctive route — a 54.5% career KO rate, a four-inch reach edge, switch-stance power, and an opponent who must repeatedly enter that range with almost no KO deterrent. His 19% decision is the proven Fili template (stuff takedowns, keep it standing, win the cards), with a 3% scramble-submission token. Austin Bashi sits at 46%, led by a 21% submission — his identity (Sub 3/45, Early Hunter, no-gi champion), live every time it hits the mat but gated behind first winning the takedown battle. His 19% decision is the Wood-for-Bashi grind (control, 129 sec/rd, accelerate in R3), and his 6% KO/TKO is a low ground-and-pound figure. The lean is modest by design: the favorite is the only fighter the database cannot fully measure.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 62% | Implied: 57.4%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 21% | Implied: 20.8%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 65% | Implied: 63.6%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Underprices the stacked finish threat – Two finishers on one card (Delgado 32% KO, Bashi 21% sub) push inside-distance to ~62% vs 57.4% implied.
- • Overweights a control-decision narrative – The crowd prices a grappler-involved fight toward the cards, underrating how finish-hungry both men are.
- • Cannot price the pivotal blank – Delgado's takedown defense is unmeasured, so the market is guessing on the one variable that decides the fight.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Jose Delgado
Largest path: power, reach, and a finish on the entries
The Fili template: stuff takedowns, win the cards
Token scramble opportunism (4 career subs)
💥Outcome Distribution - Austin Bashi
Biggest path: Sub 3/45, Early Hunter, no-gi champion
The Wood model: control, 129 sec/rd, accelerate late
Low ground-and-pound figure; 0.00 KD average
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Austin Bashi
- • Close fast: Can't win at range — chain to the clinch (41.2% TD).
- • Control the clock: 129 sec/rd is the round-winning currency.
- • Hunt the choke: Early Hunter, Sub 3/45 — live every time it hits the mat.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Jose Delgado
- • Tax every entry: Reach + switch stance make Bashi pay to close.
- • Stuff TD1: Deny the first shot at the fence and deflate the blueprint.
- • Bank the rounds: If no finish, the Fili decision path is the fallback.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A modest lean to the bigger, harder-hitting Delgado; his takedown defense is the unmeasured hinge
✅Supporting Factors
- • Real, uncommon size & reach edge (5" / 4") at featherweight
- • Documented power: 54.5% career KO rate, 26-sec UFC KO
- • Never finished in 13 pro fights; proven Fili decision path
- • Bashi is one-lane: division-worst striking volume (45/45)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Delgado's takedown defense is a blank vs a 1/45 wrestler
- • Bashi grades higher overall (62 vs ~54) and is 4 yrs younger
- • Archetype base rate (Sub Artist vs Striker 61.4%) leans Bashi
🏁Executive Summary
Across 100 simulations we see two competing stories. In roughly 54, Delgado's size, reach, and power decide the night — most often (32) by making Bashi pay on his entries and finding the early finish his record promises, sometimes (19) by stuffing the takedowns and winning the tactical, Fili-style three-rounder, with the occasional scramble submission (3). He is the bigger, more explosive, never-finished man, and against a one-lane opponent who must drive straight into his power, that is enough to make him the lean. In the other 46, the elite grappler imposes the only game that matters: Bashi closes the distance, lands his division-best takedowns against an untested defense, and either grinds a control-heavy decision (19, the Wood model for himself) or hunts the choke his career is built on (21). His iron durability carries him through the early storm, and his Strong-Finisher motor turns the championship minutes into his territory.
Prediction: Jose Delgado at 54% (KO/TKO 32% primary, Decision 19%, Submission 3%); Austin Bashi at 46% (Submission 21% biggest path, Decision 19%, KO/TKO 6%). Conviction is a deliberate 5/10. This fight is decided on the fence and the first level change: if Delgado stuffs the takedown, his size and power win a striking match Bashi cannot; if Bashi gets it down, his control and chokes win a grappling match Delgado has never had to survive. The data points slightly toward the proven puncher — but it cannot see his takedown defense, and that is the exact crack through which an elite wrestler does his best work.