Tracy Cortez vs Cong Wang
Women's Flyweight Bout • UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Saturday, July 11, 2026 • T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas • 3 Rounds
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Tracy Cortez
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Cong Wang
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Tracy Cortez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2025 | Erin Blanchfield | L | Submission (RNC) (R2, 4:44) |
| Jun 2025 | Viviane Araujo | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| Aug 2024 | Rose Namajunas | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R5, 5:00) |
| Sep 2023 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| Aug 2020 | Vanessa Melo | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Cong Wang
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | Gabriella Fernandes | L | Submission (RNC) (R2, 3:49) |
| Jan 2026 | Eduarda Moura | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| Jun 2025 | Ariane da Silva | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| Feb 2025 | Bruna Brasil | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| Aug 2024 | Victoria Leonardo | W | KO/TKO (Punches) (R1, 1:02) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (60.4 vs 91.6) and Grappling Composite (63.0 vs 51.1). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills. Wang's elite striking carries her technical edge; Cortez's profile is the more balanced one.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Tracy Cortez Key Advantages
Cortez lands 2.19 takedowns per 15 (rank 6/23) to Wang's 1.05 (rank 14/23), almost all of it from the clinch — her record reads 19 clinch takedowns on 40 attempts (47.5%). Once on top she is genuinely excellent: 78.2% ground striking accuracy and 104 seconds of control per round. The blueprint is already on tape: Wang's lone career loss came when Gabriella Fernandes — not even an elite grappler — took her down and finished her with a rear-naked choke in R2. Cortez is the more accomplished grappler, with a documented "Late Round Sub Artist" timing (66.7% of her sub attempts come in R3) and a rich technique profile (triangle 0.45, armbar 0.23, RNC 0.14). The exact sequence that beat Wang sits squarely in Cortez's wheelhouse.
Cortez's Elite chin tier (zero career KO losses, only one knockdown absorbed in 15 fights) is the single asset that makes her grappling path survivable. To reach the clinch she must absorb clean shots from the division's best puncher — Wang carries a 0.70 knockdown average (rank 2/23) and drops opponents at distance. Her 2.84 strikes absorbed per minute (rank 7/23) shows she is also hard to hit cleanly. Wang's power is the reason this is dangerous; Cortez's durability is the reason it's possible. She has never been finished by strikes — both her stoppage losses are submissions (the 2017 Cheri Muraski choke on her Invicta debut and the 2025 Blanchfield rear-naked choke).
The archetype baseline is robust and in her favor: Muay Thai Fighter beats Striker 59.8% across a 179-fight sample, and Cortez is exactly that clinch-heavy archetype against a pure striker. She also carries an Elite strength of schedule with a documented elite win (she has shared the cage with Namajunas and Blanchfield), whereas Wang's gaudy striking numbers were built against a "Strong" slate with zero elite wins. And her grappling peaks late — control time climbs every round (98 → 103 → 136 sec) with R3 ground percentage surging to 46.1%. In a three-round fight, her strongest phase lands exactly when judges form their lasting impression.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Cortez cannot win a kickboxing match. Her distance accuracy is just 41.1% with below-average volume, while Wang is #1 in the division in accuracy (57%) and #3 in volume (7.48 SLpM). If Wang's footwork and the early leg kicks (38.5% R1 leg targeting) keep Cortez at range and compromise her base and clinch entries, Cortez loses the striking minutes round after round — exactly how Namajunas out-pointed her over five. Every minute spent at range is a minute Wang banks comfortably and dangerously.
Because her takedowns are clinch-dependent, Cortez has to cross Wang's best range to grapple — and every telegraphed entry costs her clean shots from a rank-2 puncher. Wang's 0.70 knockdown average and live R1–R2 power (0.25 / 0.33 KD per round) mean a clean intercept can drop Cortez, and even an Elite chin can't always prevent a follow-up TKO against the fence. If her takedowns stall against the cage, the fight defaults to standing, where Wang's climbing output buries her 41.1% distance accuracy. The Blanchfield loss also proves a strong grappler can control and submit her.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Cortez must refuse a kickboxing match and aim her entire offense at the clinch. Accept that she'll eat shots on the way in — her Elite chin is the budget for it — and target the body-lock and cage clinch, where her 47.5% clinch takedown accuracy is her best weapon. Pinning Wang to the fence breaks the rhythm of a fighter who spends 99.2% of her time standing and has no precedent for sustained grappling. Catching the early leg kicks (Wang throws 38%+ to the legs in R1–R2) is a free entry that bypasses the dangerous striking range entirely.
Once down, Cortez's 78.2% ground accuracy and 104 seconds of control per round are devastating against an opponent with no documented off-the-back game. She shouldn't rush — accumulate, advance, and let the R3 sub-artist timing (66.7% of her subs come in R3) materialize naturally; the RNC and arm-triangle are both live. If the finish doesn't come, her 10 career decision wins are the template: control time and top position win rounds 2 and 3 on the cards even in a fight where she loses the striking minutes.
🚀 Cong Wang Key Advantages
Wang is #1 in the division in accuracy (57%), #1 in damage ratio (6.16), #3 in volume (7.48 SLpM) and #3 in striking defense (63%) — a complete distance-striking profile. Cortez's distance accuracy is just 41.1% with below-average volume. For every minute this fight stays at range, Wang doesn't merely win the exchange; she wins it overwhelmingly, and with rank-2 knockdown power (0.70 KD average) that threatens to end it. If Cortez can't consistently close, she gets picked apart at the end of Wang's punches and possibly dropped.
Wang's signature is getting busier late: 27.3 → 33.3 → 46.5 significant strikes landed across R1–R3 (122% of her R1 output, 0% slow starts). Cortez is "Steady" but not explosive. If Cortez can't impose grappling, the striking gap doesn't just persist — it widens as the fight goes on. And because Cortez's takedowns are clinch-dependent, every entry crosses Wang's best range; her 63% striking defense (rank 3) and elite output mean Cortez's path to the clinch is paved with damage and risk. Wang collects the tax on every reset.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Cortez weathers the early striking and ties up in the clinch — her R2 clinch rate (19.2%) is when she activates — the body-lock trip puts Wang exactly where she has already been finished once. Her takedown defense looks elite at 100%, but that rests on only four attempts ever faced, and it was decisively breached the one time it mattered (the Fernandes RNC). With 99.2% standing time and no offensive grappling, Wang has no tools to scramble up or threaten off her back, and rounds 2 and 3 slip away while she absorbs 78.2%-accurate ground strikes and bleeds control time on the cards.
Wang's most reliable early weapon is also her biggest risk here. She throws nearly 40% of her R1–R2 strikes to the legs, and Cortez carries a 2-inch leg-reach advantage (39" vs 37") plus a clinch-grappler's instinct to catch kicks. Every over-committed leg kick is a chance for Cortez to catch it and convert it into a takedown — turning Wang's go-to weapon into the very mechanism that grounds her. Against a fighter whose entire identity is making fights not stay standing, Wang has no documented "Plan B" once the phase changes.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Wang's entire edge lives at distance (92–96% of her output). She should use footwork, the jab, and lateral movement to deny the clinch and reset to open space every time Cortez closes. The fight she must avoid is the body-lock-to-trip against the cage: frame, pummel for underhooks, and prioritize getting back to center. If she's grappling, she's losing — so every defensive priority bends toward circling off the fence and re-establishing punching range.
Wang's documented pattern wins her decisions: ~38% leg targeting in R1–R2, then a hard shift to the head in R3 (61.3%). Compromise Cortez's base and entries with kicks before headhunting in the final round, and make every clinch attempt brutal — short elbows and knees on the break, 0.70-KD power on every reset. Wang's best round is her third (46.5 sig landed); if she keeps it standing through two rounds, the climbing-output curve is where she pulls away — provided Cortez hasn't dragged her down first.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️The Phase War
This is one of the most physically symmetrical matchups on the card — identical 65.5-inch reach, one inch of height, a comparable frame — so the fight is decided entirely by phase control. The two round-by-round profiles are almost comically opposed: Wang's distance percentage runs 92.7 → 95.2 → 95.7 (she essentially never leaves range), while Cortez's ground percentage climbs 20.0 → 8.6 → 46.1 with 104 seconds of control per round. There is no comfortable middle ground — whoever wins the transition (distance-to-clinch for Cortez, clinch-to-space for Wang) wins the fight. The entire model becomes a coin weighted by how often Cortez completes that transition versus how much damage she absorbs attempting it.
🎯Technical Breakdown
On a category-by-category sheet, Wang wins almost everything that happens standing: #1 in accuracy (57%), #1 in damage ratio (6.16), #2 in knockdown power, #3 in volume (7.48 SLpM) and defense (63%). Cortez's only statistical edges live in the grappling phase — TD rate rank 6 vs 14, 19 clinch takedowns to Wang's 2, and 104 seconds of control per round to Wang's 2 — plus two crucial intangibles: an Elite chin that has never been knocked out and an Elite strength of schedule versus Wang's "Strong." The honest move is to mentally regress Wang's striking toward the mean for competition quality, which narrows the standing gap and is a meaningful chunk of why this is closer than the raw composites (71.4 vs 61.7 technical) suggest.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three areas decide it: the distance-to-clinch transition, knockdown-on-entry, and late-round phase control. Cortez's 47.5% clinch takedown accuracy and the 59.8% archetype baseline support a majority-completion rate on entries, but Wang's elite distance striking and footwork stuff or deny enough of them that it's far from automatic. Wang's 0.70 KD average produces a hurt-Cortez moment in roughly a fifth of simulations during entries — but Cortez's Elite chin (never KO'd, 1 KD absorbed in 15 fights) converts most of those into survived moments rather than finishes. And once Cortez establishes top position, Wang's documented inability to grapple off her back makes the Fernandes finish a live, repeatable path.
🏁Final Prediction
The model lands on Tracy Cortez at 53% — a slight nod to the grappler in what is the closest fight to a true coin-flip on the card. Her single most likely outcome is a decision (33%), the natural product of a career grinder who wins 83% of her fights on the cards and controls 104 seconds per round; her submission path (16%) follows the Fernandes blueprint and her "Late Round Sub Artist" R3 timing. Wang's primary lane is a decision of her own (30%) by keeping it standing and winning the striking minutes, and her most dangerous single outcome is the knockout (15%) given rank-2 power and Cortez's need to walk into range. Cortez KO/TKO (4%) and Wang submission (2%) round out the distribution. The whole fight reduces to one question: can Cortez make this a grappling fight?
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 63% | Implied: 47.6%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 15% to occur | Market implies 26.7%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: ~91% | Implied: 77.8%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overprices the clean knockout – Cortez's Elite chin has never been broken in 15 fights.
- • Underprices the grappling path – Wang's lone loss was a takedown-to-RNC; the blueprint is on tape.
- • Ignores strength of schedule – Wang's elite striking numbers were built on a soft slate.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Tracy Cortez
Banks R2–R3 on control time and top position
Late RNC / arm-triangle — the Fernandes blueprint
Only realistic via ground-and-pound from top
💥Outcome Distribution - Cong Wang
Keep it standing, bank the striking minutes
Knockdown power on Cortez's clinch entries
Negligible — zero tracked UFC sub attempts
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Cong Wang
- • First 5 minutes: Sharpest output vs an occasionally tentative starter.
- • Stay at range: Footwork + jab to deny the clinch and reset.
- • Leg kicks early: Compromise the base, then headhunt late.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Tracy Cortez
- • Clinch entries: Body-lock to the fence; 47.5% clinch TD accuracy.
- • Top control: 104 sec/round, 78.2% ground accuracy.
- • Late rounds: R3 control peak + "Late Round Sub Artist" timing.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Near coin-flip with a slight, two-sided lean to the grappler
✅Supporting Factors
- • Archetype baseline: Muay Thai Fighter beats Striker 59.8% (179 fights)
- • Wang's lone loss was a takedown-to-RNC — a literal blueprint
- • Cortez's Elite chin (0 career KO losses) survives the entries
- • Elite SOS vs Wang's Strong — soft-schedule discount on Wang's stats
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Wang is the division's best distance striker (57% acc, 7.48 SLpM)
- • Cortez's takedowns are clinch-dependent — entry tax is real
- • Cortez was just out-grappled and submitted by Blanchfield
- • Wang's climbing output (46.5 in R3) punishes a grinder
🏁Executive Summary
This will not be decided by physical attributes — identical 65.5-inch reach, a one-inch height gap, and comparable frames neutralize all of that. In roughly 53 of 100 simulations Cortez weathers the early striking storm, wins the distance-to-clinch transition often enough to put Wang on the fence and the mat, and from there her control time, 78.2% ground accuracy, and late-round submission instinct decide the fight — either by the Fernandes-style stoppage or by banking rounds 2 and 3 on the cards. She does not need to win the striking; she needs to win the phase, and her style, her Elite chin, and her superior level of competition are built to do exactly that. In the other 47, Wang keeps it standing: her footwork and division-best accuracy deny the clinch, her leg kicks compromise the entries, and her climbing output (46.5 strikes in R3) either pulls away on the scorecards or lands the knockdown Cortez's chin can only resist so many times.
Prediction: Tracy Cortez wins 53% of the time, most likely by decision (33%) through clinch control and top position, with a submission upside (16%) straight off the Fernandes blueprint. Cong Wang's 47% is led by a standing decision (30%) and a live knockout (15%) on Cortez's entries. The grappler gets the slight nod because the one time the striker faced her own worst nightmare she was choked unconscious — but this is the closest fight to a true coin-flip on the card.