Alden Coria vs Stewart Nicoll
Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Saturday, July 18, 2026 • Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
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Alden Coria
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Stewart Nicoll
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Alden Coria
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Luis Gurule | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-09-13 | Alessandro Costa | W | KO/TKO (R3, 0:47) |
| 2025-05-25 | German Orpineda Ponce | W | KO/TKO (R2, 3:21) |
| 2025-01-12 | Phillip Moran | NC | No Contest (R1, 3:12) |
| 2024-11-03 | Carlos Ocon | W | KO/TKO (R2, 2:22) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Stewart Nicoll
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Alessandro Costa | L | KO/TKO (R2, 4:56) |
| 2025-10-11 | Lucas Rocha | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-17 | Jesus Aguilar | L | Submission (Guillotine) (R1, 2:39) |
| 2024-03-09 | Issei Kitano | W | KO/TKO (R1, 4:45) |
| 2023-09-16 | Dansheel Moodley | W | KO/TKO (R1, 4:24) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (62 vs 42, est.) and Grappling Composite (55 vs 60, est.). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills. Coria's figures are estimated (data void); Nicoll's are computed from a small UFC sample.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Alden Coria Key Advantages
Coria's knockout of Alessandro Costa is the proof of concept: his power finishes UFC flyweights, a rare trait at 125 lbs. Nicoll was also finished by Costa, and his striking defense ranks an estimated 31st of 32 in the division — a documented hole. The single most likely sequence in this fight is Coria's accumulating pressure finding a clean shot on a defensively porous opponent in the middle rounds, the same template that produced his R2 and R3 stoppages of Ocon, Orpineda Ponce and Costa. He has never been stopped by strikes across 15+ pro bouts, so the striking exchange is lopsided in both directions: he hits harder and absorbs less.
The cleanest data point in the entire fight: Coria knocked out Alessandro Costa in Round 3 (0:47), and that same Costa stopped Stewart Nicoll by strikes in Round 2 (4:56). Same opponent, both results recent and at UFC level, and Coria's was the faster, more emphatic finish. MMA math is never a guarantee — styles and timing intervene — but a shared, recent, UFC-level opponent who beat one man and was finished by the other is about as direct a transitive signal as this sport offers, and it points hard at Coria. It independently corroborates everything the form, physicals and limited stats already say.
Every verifiable physical axis points the same way: Coria is three inches taller (5'8" vs 5'5"), carries an estimated reach edge of three-plus inches, and is two years younger at 28 to Nicoll's 30. In a 125-pound division where length dictates who controls range, the taller, rangier, fresher man starts from a structural head-start. He has also shown a complete 15-minute gas tank — his unanimous-decision win over Luis Gurule proved he can manage range and bank three rounds when the finish does not come. In a long fight he is the fresher man in the round that decides it, and his finishes cluster late (R2-R3), exactly when Nicoll fades.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The worst version of this fight for Coria is one where he respects Nicoll's jiu-jitsu too much, fights tentatively at range, and lets Nicoll's Round 1 grappling bank a control-heavy opening round he then spends the rest of the night chasing. Nicoll's only round of measured control is the first (107 seconds in the DB sample), so a passive start hands him his single best window. If Coria fails to establish his jab and pressure early, a tentative opener can gift away a round he should be winning on the feet.
Coria's takedown defense is unmeasured — there is no film-graded data on it, and a BJJ black belt is the worst possible opponent to discover a hidden hole against. If that single unknown breaks Nicoll's way, the Australian can get top position, advance, and start hunting the submission a grappler of his pedigree is always looking for. This is the largest source of uncertainty in the matchup, and it is the reason the model holds its lean with humility rather than emphatic confidence.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Coria should establish his jab and length early, making the shorter man pay to enter and keeping the fight standing where Nicoll's striking defense is exposed. Every second spent at distance favors Coria; the worst version of this fight for Nicoll is a clean kickboxing contest, so Coria's first job is simply to keep it there. His three inches of height and estimated reach edge let him control the range and pile up clean, accurate strikes while denying Nicoll the clinch entries that lead to the mat.
Coria should sprawl-and-stay-up in Round 1 — survive Nicoll's one real window, force him to expend energy on takedowns that don't stick, and bank the round on the feet. From there he builds pressure into the middle rounds, where his finishes live, leaning on accumulating damage against a fading, defensively weak opponent. He should also keep the front-choke alive in scrambles: if Nicoll shoots sloppy, the guillotine that already beat the Australian (Aguilar) is a live counter for Coria too. The clean, disciplined plan wins going away.
🚀 Stewart Nicoll Key Advantages
Nicoll's jiu-jitsu is the one true skill edge in the cage. A BJJ black belt and head coach at Brisbane's Broz Martial Arts, he can erase Coria's height and reach the instant he drags the fight to the mat — and his Round 1 control numbers (107 seconds, 27% of strikes on the ground in the DB sample) show the capability is real when he can access it. He is also a genuine finisher at the regional level: half of his career wins are by knockout, the other a string of submissions. If he can get top position and keep it, his grappling becomes the most refined weapon on display.
There is no film-graded takedown-defense data on Alden Coria. It is possible his defensive wrestling is a hidden hole — and a black belt is the worst opponent to find that out against. A grappler only needs the takedown to click once. Nicoll also carries genuine regional power: three of his recent regional outings ended in first- or second-round knockouts, so if he lands clean early, anything can happen in a flyweight exchange. At 0-3 in the UFC and fighting for his roster spot, a desperate, all-in performance is exactly the kind of high-variance gameplan that can steal a fight from a favorite.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The nightmare for Nicoll is that he cannot close the distance on the longer man, the grappling never materializes, and the fight becomes the distance kickboxing match his estimated rank-31/32 striking defense cannot survive. His own round-by-round profile is damning here: once the early grappling is gone, his control time falls to zero and his strike distribution flips to 100% distance — precisely the version of him that Lucas Rocha out-pointed and Costa stopped. Against a rangier, harder-hitting opponent, a stand-up fight is a losing fight.
Coria's mid-round pressure finds the same crack Costa did — a Round 2 or Round 3 TKO that mirrors Nicoll's most recent loss. The timing is the trap: Nicoll's accuracy craters late (21.7% in the third round of the DB sample, head-only, throwing from behind), and that fade arrives against a fighter whose stoppages cluster in exactly those rounds. A competitive fight can slip into a stoppage down the stretch, which is why two of Nicoll's three Octagon nights have ended early — and why the model concentrates Coria's finishes in the middle and late rounds.
📋 Likely Gameplan
The entire fight lives in Nicoll's Round 1 grappling window. He must close distance, clinch, and drag Coria to the mat before the longer man settles into range — the worst outcome for him is any extended period at distance. From top position he should chain takedowns and hunt the back, since control time and submission threat are his only high-percentage paths; a points-grinding, control-heavy fight is his best non-finish result. Avoiding the kickboxing match at all costs is the single most important instruction in his corner.
Nicoll fades late and gets finished late, so if he is going to win it has to be early and decisive. He should empty the tank in Rounds 1 and 2 — pour everything into the grappling while he is fresh, because his win equity is front-loaded into the opening five minutes. If the takedowns stall, his regional knockout power is the only standup equalizer, and it has to land before the fade sets in. A measured, conserve-energy approach plays directly into Coria's build-and-break rhythm and loses the late rounds.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🔑The Decisive Question
Strip away the database noise and this is a clean archetype clash: a rising, KO-capable prospect (2-0 UFC) against a regional standout the UFC has already beaten three times (0-3). The single question that decides the fight is whether Nicoll can grapple at this level. His BJJ pedigree is his only genuine edge, and the evidence is discouraging — three UFC fights produced one submission loss (he was the one caught in a guillotine), one decision loss where his grappling could not carry the rounds, and one TKO loss. A black belt who keeps losing in ways that do not showcase his black belt is telling you something, and against a longer striker with no exposed wrestling hole the path to imposing that grappling only narrows.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The fight turns on one exploitable pairing: Coria's transferable, UFC-proven power against Nicoll's estimated rank-31/32 striking defense. The same Costa power that stopped Nicoll is a level Coria has already exceeded. On composites, Coria grades roughly 62 in striking to Nicoll's 42, while Nicoll's only category lead is grappling (about 60 to 55) — and that is a pedigree lead the Octagon has not yet validated. Nicoll's eye-catching takedown-rate (5.66) and absorption (1.13) numbers are small-sample mirages drawn from a single short fight and must be stripped out; once they are, every credible signal on him is cautionary — below-average volume, near-bottom striking defense, zero registered UFC submission output despite the black belt, and a late fade. Coria's tape exploits each one.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three areas decide it. First, the Round 1 grappling window: Nicoll's only round of measured control is the first, and the blueprint for an upset lives in those opening five minutes on the mat. Second, the standup at distance — every second the fight spends upright favors the longer, harder-hitting Coria, who controls range behind his jab and length. Third, the fade-meets-finisher convergence: Nicoll's win equity is front-loaded into Round 1 while Coria's grows as the fight goes on, his finishes clustering in Rounds 2-3 just as Nicoll's accuracy collapses to 21.7% and his control time falls to zero. The two trajectories cross early, and after that crossing the fight belongs to Coria.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Alden Coria by KO/TKO (38% probability), pressuring a defensively porous, fading opponent into a middle-or-late-round stoppage that echoes his Costa knockout and Nicoll's Costa loss. Coria's decision path (24%) reflects his proven 15-minute gas tank — if the finish does not come, he out-lands a fading opponent and banks the cards as he did against Gurule. His submission lane (10%) is real but secondary, a live guillotine in the scrambles a desperate Nicoll will create. Nicoll's best and most credible path is by submission (13%), the black belt's pedigree concentrated in his Round 1 window; his decision (8%) and KO/TKO (7%) lanes are thinner. Overall: Coria 72%, Nicoll 28%.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 28% | Market: +320 (23.8%)
GOOD VALUE
Model: 38% | Market: +160 (38.5%)
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 68% | Market: -200 (66.7%)
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights the black-belt name – Prices Nicoll's BJJ pedigree above his 0-3 UFC reality.
- • Discounts the common opponent – Coria's faster finish of Costa, who stopped Nicoll, is the cleanest signal on the board.
- • Underprices the late finish – Round-3 stoppage sits at +320 (23.8%) against a ~28% model estimate.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Alden Coria
Primary path — pressure cracks an exposed defense mid-to-late
Out-lands a fading opponent over three rounds (Gurule template)
Live guillotine/front-choke in a desperate opponent's scrambles
💥Outcome Distribution - Stewart Nicoll
His best path — black-belt pedigree in the Round 1 window
The control-heavy grind his last three results never delivered
Regional power landing early on a durable, unmeasured chin
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Stewart Nicoll
- • First five minutes: His only real grappling window — win it or lose the fight.
- • Get it down: Close distance, clinch and drag the longer man to the mat early.
- • Hunt the submission: The black belt only needs the grappling to click once.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Alden Coria
- • Survive Round 1: Sprawl-and-stay-up; bank the opening round on the feet.
- • Build & break: Apply pressure into R2-R3, where his finishes cluster.
- • Finish the fade: Meet Nicoll's late accuracy collapse with accumulating power.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A clear lean, tempered by a data-void favorite and a black-belt wildcard
✅Supporting Factors
- • Clean common-opponent thread — Coria KO'd the Costa who finished Nicoll, and did it faster
- • Every verifiable axis favors Coria (2-0 UFC vs 0-3)
- • Nicoll's one reliable metric is a weakness (Str Def ~31/32)
- • Coria's complete game: finishes and wins on the cards
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Coria is a database void — no measured stats or TD defense
- • Nicoll's BJJ is a genuine wildcard; needs to click once
- • Nicoll's DB profile is partly stale (win%/streak/chin discarded)
- • Flyweight is a high-variance, low-margin division
🏁Executive Summary
This fight is decided in the first five minutes. If Stewart Nicoll's grappling takes hold immediately, the BJJ black belt has a live, credible path — most likely a Round 1 submission. If it does not — and his 0-3 UFC record suggests it will not — the bout becomes a kickboxing match against a longer, younger, harder-hitting finisher who out-paces him late. The data on Alden Coria is thin (he is a database void, estimated from web film and record), but every reliable signal points the same direction: the common opponent (Coria knocked out the same Costa who stopped Nicoll, and did it more emphatically), the form (2-0 UFC vs 0-3), the youth, the length, the power, and Nicoll's own estimated rank-31/32 striking defense. The responsible position is a solid-but-not-emphatic lean on the in-form man — held with appropriate humility because one corner is fully visible and the other is mostly inferred.
Prediction: Alden Coria by KO/TKO most likely (38% probability), pressuring a defensively porous, fading opponent into a middle-or-late-round stoppage; his decision (24%) and submission (10%) lanes round out a 72% win probability. Nicoll's best upset path is by submission (13%) in his Round 1 grappling window. On July 18 in Oklahoma City, the smart read is that "Cobra" strikes late.