Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan
Middleweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Saturday, July 18, 2026 • Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Jared Cannonier
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Christian Leroy Duncan
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Jared Cannonier
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-16 | Michael Page | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-15 | Gregory Rodrigues | W | KO/TKO (R4, 0:21) |
| 2024-08-24 | Caio Borralho | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-08 | Nassourdine Imavov | L | KO/TKO (R4, 1:34) |
| 2023-06-17 | Marvin Vettori | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R5, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Christian Leroy Duncan
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Roman Dolidze | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-11-08 | Marco Tulio | W | KO/TKO (R2, 3:20) |
| 2025-08-09 | Eryk Anders | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:53) |
| 2025-03-22 | Andrey Pulyaev | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-27 | Gregory Rodrigues | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (53.8 vs 64.9) and Grappling Composite (34.4 vs 28.9). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Jared Cannonier Key Advantages
Cannonier's entire fast-win path is genuine, fight-ending power—Anderson Silva, Brunson, Branch, Hermansson, and most tellingly Gregory Rodrigues (the very man who out-pointed Duncan) all met the same end. 61% of his career wins are KO/TKO (11 of 18), and his counter overhand (counter_rate 0.27) is a true equalizer. Duncan's striking defense is only 51% (rank 26/46)—roughly 49% of incoming gets through—and against this kind of power it only takes one. No metric fully captures the puncher's chance; it is live in any second of any round and is the single variable capable of overriding every other number on this page.
Cannonier's percentage striking defense (56%, rank 11/46) is a genuine top-quartile shell, and his Counter-Striker sub-archetype is built to punish aggression. Duncan's game lives on pressure and clinch entries; if he over-commits pressing forward, the counter window opens and the overhand is exactly the shot that ends nights. Cannonier blocks and avoids well per shot—his elevated raw absorption is a function of years spent across the cage from the division's busiest elites over five-round fights, not of being easy to hit cleanly. Force Duncan to lead onto the right hand rather than walking him into the clinch, and the puncher's chance compounds every exchange.
Uniquely for a 42-year-old, Cannonier gets busier late—his Round 3 output is 123% of his Round 1 and his knockdown average actually peaks in the third (0.15). He "Maintains Output" in championship rounds (109%) on a Championship-tier résumé built against Adesanya, Whittaker, Strickland (win), Vettori (win), and Borralho. In a close three-rounder the deciding round is not automatically Duncan's: if Cannonier survives even to the third, he is accelerating, not fading—the rare aging striker who closes hard, capable of stealing the final round on the cards or landing the late finish.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The nightmare for Cannonier: he can't find the early finish, Duncan's never-dropped chin weathers the power, and the younger man banks volume, accuracy, and clinch control across all three rounds. Duncan has absorbed 0 knockdowns in nine UFC fights (exchange ratio 4.00), and he out-lands at 59% (rank 12) while eating only 2.94 per minute (rank 14). If the one shot never lands, the math turns into a third straight "couldn't close, lost the rounds" defeat in the Borralho/Page mold that has already beaten this version of Cannonier twice.
Duncan pins him on the fence for sustained stretches—64 seconds of control per round, R3 clinch usage spiking to 35.6%—and the knees and elbows accumulate while the 42-year-old legs erode, taking away the late surge that is Cannonier's best asset. The other collapse lane is sharper: he eats a clean Duncan combination at distance (59% accuracy), gets buzzed, and his 16.7% post-knockdown recovery rate turns a bad moment into a stoppage, exactly as it did against Nassourdine Imavov.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Urgency is survival. Cannonier's win equity is front-loaded, and against a fresh 30-year-old, letting this reach a competitive R3 is risky even for a Strong Finisher. He should load the counter overhand and the R2 power window where his knockdowns historically cluster. Open by chopping the lead leg (R1 leg targeting 29.2%) to slow Duncan's length and footwork, then escalate to the head as the timing reads come in—the same legs-early, head-late arc both men run, but Cannonier needs his to produce a moment, not just minutes.
Cannonier's defense and power reward patience: force Duncan to lead onto the right hand rather than pressing into the clinch where he is outgunned. Staying off the fence is non-negotiable —Duncan's clinch (35.6% R3 usage, 64 sec control per round) is a points-and-damage trap that burns an aging base. Keep the fight in open space where the knockout lives, circle off the cage, and trust the late surge if it goes there: uniquely for his age, the third is his sharpest round and his last, best path to stealing a razor-thin decision.
🚀 Christian Leroy Duncan Key Advantages
Duncan has never been knocked down in nine UFC fights (0 KD absorbed, exchange ratio 4.00)—directly neutralizing Cannonier's one true equalizer—while Cannonier's own chin is "Average" with a 16.7% post-knockdown recovery. The durability ledger is lopsided in both directions. His 1.64 damage ratio (rank 8/46) versus Cannonier's 1.09 (rank 34) means he wins exchanges decisively and eats far less (SApM 2.94 vs 4.35). Over three rounds of a striking match, that compounds into clear, judge-friendly scorecards.
Twelve years younger against a documented late-career fader (Cannonier is 2-3 in his last five, three losses in four, off an 11-month layoff). At 6'2"/79" with a Clinch-Heavy Nak Muay arsenal (knees 0.94, elbows 0.71, spinning 0.65, 81.8% clinch accuracy) and 64 sec/round of control, Duncan owns an inside game Cannonier has no answer for. Higher volume (4.83 SLpM, rank 11) and top-tier accuracy (59%, rank 12) win the minutes, and the Dolidze tape proves he can execute exactly this composed, long, clinch-heavy plan against an older, physical, durable opponent.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Duncan presses forward carelessly into Cannonier's counter window, he walks onto the overhand—the one shot that erases the iron-chin advantage in a single instant. Cannonier's blocking defense (rank 11/46) and Counter-Striker profile reward exactly the kind of aggression Duncan's pressure-and- clinch game invites. His knockout of Gregory Rodrigues, the man who out-pointed Duncan in 2024, is the standing proof that the equalizer is live: leading with single power shots instead of feints and combinations is how a fight the data favors ends early and badly.
The slow-burn loss: Duncan respects the power too much, fights tentative on the outside, and his own slow start (33.3%) hands Cannonier the early rounds before the volume game ever ignites. The other version is a late theft—the fight is close entering R3, Cannonier's Strong-Finisher surge (123% output, rising KD average) steals the deciding round, and a Championship-tier résumé tilts a razor-thin decision the veteran's way. Coasting is the single way Duncan loses a fight the numbers say he should win; he must keep his foot on the gas through the horn.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use length and the jab to fight long, denying Cannonier the mid-range pocket where the power crosses live, and pile up the 59%-accuracy volume that wins rounds on the cards. Open on the legs (41.3% R1 leg targeting—the Nak Muay calling card) to compromise the 42-year-old base and footwork, then climb to the head in R2 where his own knockdown threat peaks (KD avg 0.33). Crucially, don't get reckless: lead behind feints and combinations rather than single power shots, and never stand and trade in the pocket where the overhand waits.
Clinch when pressured and clinch on purpose late—pin Cannonier on the fence, work knees and elbows, and bank control (64 sec/round, R3 clinch spiking to 35.6%): the exact Dolidze blueprint that wins championship minutes against a physical, durable opponent. Then lean on the chin and the gas tank. He has never been dropped and he is the fresher man, so the plan is to make Cannonier throw hard early, weather the power window, and let twelve years of age and a damage-ratio edge tell from the second round onward.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
This is a clean stand-up contest between two non-wrestlers (TD rates rank 39 and 41 of 46), so cage space is decided not by takedowns but by the clinch. Cannonier wants open space where the knockout lives—83.8% of his R1 striking is at distance; Duncan wants the fence, where his Clinch-Heavy Nak Muay game (64 sec/round of control, R3 clinch usage spiking to 35.6%) turns the cage into a knees-and-elbows trap. The longer the fight lives along the fence, the more it taxes a 42-year-old base and the more the cage shifts from Cannonier's friend into Duncan's weapon—a progressive squeeze that compounds round over round.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Duncan wins the columns that decide standing fights: higher volume (4.83 vs 4.42 SLpM, rank 11 vs 19), sharper accuracy (59% vs 50%, rank 12 vs 27), and far lower absorption (2.94 vs 4.35 SApM, rank 14 vs 34). The single best summary stat is the damage ratio—Duncan 1.64 (rank 8/46) against Cannonier's 1.09 (rank 34/46), nearly double. Cannonier's two genuine edges are percentage striking defense (rank 11) and one-shot power no metric fully captures. The striking sub-score (64.9 vs 53.8) describes the fight that will actually happen; the grappling- void mechanic merely compresses the overall Technical Score to a slim 46.9 vs 44.1 and understates Duncan's real edge on the feet.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three hinges decide it. First, the chin asymmetry—Cannonier's "Average" chin with a 16.7% post-knockdown recovery sits directly across from Duncan's iron chin (0 KD absorbed in nine UFC fights), and it runs both ways: the younger man is harder to hurt and the older man easier to finish than ever. Second, the mirror rhythm—both open on the legs (Cannonier 29.2%, Duncan 41.3%) and escalate to the head, but Duncan does it longer, more accurately (58–63% vs 47–54%), and from a longer frame. Third, the late round—Cannonier's Strong-Finisher surge (R3 output 123% of R1, highest KD avg in the third) is his real lifeline and the reason the deciding round is not automatically Duncan's if Duncan coasts.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Christian Leroy Duncan by Decision (28%)—out-volume, out-accuracy, and clinch-grind a 42-year-old over three rounds in the Borralho/Page template that has already beaten this version of Cannonier twice. His KO/TKO path (26%) is nearly as live, reflecting his R2 finishing window (KD avg 0.33) and the fact that Cannonier's chin is more fragile than his own. Cannonier's primary lane is the one-shot KO/TKO (22%) his career and his finish of common opponent Rodrigues prove is always one exchange away; his decision path (18%) requires surviving on the counter game to his Strong-Finisher third and stealing a close card. Submissions are near-zero tokens (Duncan 4%, Cannonier 2%).
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: ~60% | Fair: -150
GOOD VALUE
Model: 58% | Fair: -138
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 46% | Fair: +117
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights Cannonier's reputation – Name value and power may shade the line toward a pick'em.
- • Underprices the iron chin – Duncan's 0-KD-absorbed record suppresses the one path the market fears.
- • Finish-friendly props – An iron-chinned favorite plus a 46% decision rate pushes the fight past R2.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Jared Cannonier
Counter game survives to the Strong-Finisher third
One-shot power and the counter overhand
Near-zero token; 0.00 Sub/15, 2 career
💥Outcome Distribution - Christian Leroy Duncan
R2 finishing window vs a more fragile chin
Largest path — out-volume and clinch-grind over three
Opportunistic only; 1 career sub
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Jared Cannonier
- • Front-loaded equity: Hunt the early finish before youth and volume tell.
- • Counter overhand: Punish Duncan's forward pressure; the one shot ends it.
- • R2 power window: Knockdowns cluster here; load up and stay off the fence.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Christian Leroy Duncan
- • Volume & accuracy: 59% landing (rank 12) banks rounds on the cards.
- • Clinch grind: Pin the fence, knees and elbows — the Dolidze blueprint.
- • Freshness: 30 vs 42 and an iron chin let the age tell from R2 onward.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A clear but measured lean to the younger, fresher, statistically superior man — capped by a proven knockout artist's right hand
✅Supporting Factors
- • Age, form & freshness all stack one way (30 vs 42, 4-0 vs 2-3)
- • Chin asymmetry runs both ways: iron vs 16.7% recovery
- • Wins the standing columns: volume, accuracy, damage ratio (8 vs 34)
- • Dolidze tape proves he executes exactly this game plan
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Cannonier's one-shot power — finished Rodrigues, who beat Duncan
- • Strong-Finisher R3 surge can steal a close card
- • Real SOS gap: Championship résumé vs one ranked scalp
🏁Executive Summary
Across 100 simulations the recurring story is consistent: in roughly 58 of them, Christian Leroy Duncan's length, accuracy, and clinch grind win the minutes — most often (28) by out-striking and out-damaging an aging Cannonier over three rounds in the Borralho/Page mold, and nearly as often (26) by cracking a more fragile, slower-recovering 42-year-old inside his own R2 finishing window. Every contextual factor points his way: age (30 vs 42), form (4-0 vs 2-3), freshness (active vs an 11-month layoff), a damage ratio nearly double Cannonier's (rank 8 vs 34), and the chin asymmetry — Duncan's iron chin (0 KD absorbed in nine fights) against Cannonier's "Average" chin with a 16.7% post-knockdown recovery. The one factor that doesn't, power, is the only one capable of overriding all the others in a single second.
Prediction: Christian Leroy Duncan by Decision is the single most likely path (28%), with his R2 KO/TKO (26%) close behind; Cannonier's live upset lane is the one-shot KO/TKO (22%) his finish of common opponent Rodrigues proves is always one exchange away. The data, the form, and the freshness all favor Duncan — but Jared Cannonier is one right hand away from making every number on this page irrelevant, and that is exactly what keeps this a six-and-not-higher lean.