Cong Wang vs Eduarda Moura
Women's Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs Oliveira
Saturday, February 7, 2026 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage)
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Cong Wang
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Eduarda Moura
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Cong Wang
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-07 | Ariane Lipski da Silva | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-08 | Bruna Brasil | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-23 | Gabriella Fernandes | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 3:49) |
| 2024-08-24 | Victoria Leonardo | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 1:02) |
| 2024-05-18 | Paula Luna | W | Submission - Guillotine (R1, 3:04) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Eduarda Moura
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-12 | Lauren Murphy | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-16 | Veronica Hardy | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-08 | Denise Gomes | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-04 | Montserrat Conejo Ruiz | W | KO/TKO - Ground Pound (R2, 2:14) |
| 2023-08-15 | Janaína Silva | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 4:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (79.0 vs 50.0) and Grappling Composite (64.0 vs 60.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Cong Wang Key Advantages
Wang's 7.48 SLpM represents a massive volume advantage over Moura's 3.04 SLpM, combined with superior accuracy (57% vs 37%). This creates a scoring differential that overwhelms opponents through pure output and precision. In a 3-round fight, Wang can establish dominance through consistent clean striking, forcing Moura into defensive shells or desperate takedown attempts. The Chinese fighter's high output forces Moura to work overtime defensively, creating fatigue and counter opportunities that compound over rounds.
Wang's perfect 100% takedown defense completely neutralizes Moura's primary weapon (3.73 TD/15). While Moura can attempt takedowns, Wang's defensive efficiency prevents her from establishing control time or scoring positions. This forces Moura to fight Wang's preferred range battle where the striking differentials become decisive. Wang's ability to maintain distance and land clean shots while defending takedowns creates a sustainable advantage that prevents Moura from implementing her grappling gameplan.
Wang's 4:18 average fight duration demonstrates superior conditioning compared to Moura's 10:19. The Chinese fighter can maintain high-volume output without fading, while Moura may struggle to sustain her takedown attempts over multiple rounds. This cardio advantage becomes particularly important if the fight goes to a third round, where Wang's efficiency in finishing fights early contrasts with Moura's longer engagements. Wang's ability to end fights decisively prevents Moura from grinding out decisions.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Moura overcomes Wang's defensive efficiency and lands consecutive takedowns, she could establish dominant positions and control time. Moura's 75% finish rate of wins suggests she can capitalize on top control with strikes or submissions. Wang's one career submission loss shows she's vulnerable to skilled grapplers who can work from the top. A successful takedown sequence early could disrupt Wang's striking rhythm and allow Moura to implement her preferred ground-and-pound strategy.
Should Moura successfully close distance and maintain wrestling pressure, Wang's advantages diminish significantly. In the small cage, Moura's ability to cut off the octagon and force clinch exchanges could prevent Wang from using her range effectively. Moura's 3.73 TD/15 rate could create enough threat to keep Wang on the defensive, making it difficult for her to establish her striking rhythm. The Brazilian's pressure wrestling could neutralize Wang's volume advantage by forcing her to fight in Moura's domain.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Wang should establish her jab and southpaw stance early, using her reach advantage and volume to dictate pace. Her 7.48 SLpM combined with 57% accuracy can overwhelm Moura if she commits to stand-up exchanges. The Chinese fighter should use lateral movement to avoid takedown attempts while landing combinations that keep Moura defensive. This approach maximizes Wang's statistical advantages while minimizing Moura's opportunities to close distance and implement her wrestling gameplan.
Wang's 63% striking defense and ability to read takedown attempts should be exploited for counters. As Moura commits to shots, Wang can time clean right hands or left kicks to the body. Her 50% finish rate suggests she can capitalize on these opportunities with knockouts. This counter-striking approach keeps Moura guessing between stand-up and takedown attempts, preventing her from establishing consistent pressure. Wang's defensive efficiency allows her to score while staying safe.
🚀 Eduarda Moura Key Advantages
Moura's 3.73 takedowns per 15 minutes represents elite wrestling volume that can force Wang into defensive positions. Her 37% takedown accuracy combined with persistence creates constant threat, forcing Wang to respect shots and potentially opening up striking counters. In the small cage, Moura's ability to cut off the octagon and establish fence control can neutralize Wang's striking advantages. The Brazilian's wrestling pressure becomes particularly effective if she can chain attempts and create fatigue through constant movement.
Moura's 75% finish rate demonstrates her ability to capitalize on top positions with submissions or ground and pound. Her 42% submission rate in wins shows she can threaten with chokes and joint locks, keeping opponents defensive. Once Moura secures takedowns, her ability to work from guard or establish dominant positions can create submission opportunities. The Brazilian's finishing ability becomes crucial if she can overcome Wang's defensive efficiency and establish control time on the ground where her skills are most dangerous.
Moura's pressure wrestling style forces opponents to work defensively and creates opportunities for follow-up attacks. Her ability to close distance and establish clinch positions can disrupt Wang's striking rhythm and create openings for takedowns. The small cage environment favors Moura's ability to cut off the octagon and force exchanges at the fence, where her wrestling background gives her clear advantages. This pressure approach can prevent Wang from establishing her preferred range and volume-based striking gameplan.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Wang successfully maintains distance and establishes her striking rhythm, Moura's low volume (3.04 SLpM) and accuracy (37%) become significant disadvantages. Wang's ability to land clean shots while keeping Moura at range prevents her from implementing her wrestling gameplan. The Chinese fighter's superior footwork and jab can dictate pace, forcing Moura to chase and potentially expose herself to counters. This scenario becomes likely if Moura cannot close the distance effectively.
Wang's 100% takedown defense and 63% striking defense create a scenario where Moura struggles to land meaningful strikes or secure takedowns. If Wang can read Moura's entries and counter effectively, the Brazilian's 37% takedown accuracy becomes a major liability. Moura's inability to establish her preferred positions forces her into unfavorable exchanges where Wang's volume and accuracy advantages become decisive. This defensive dominance can prevent Moura from implementing her pressure wrestling strategy.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Moura's optimal strategy involves relentless pressure to close distance and force Wang into defensive positions. Her 3.73 TD/15 rate should be used to chain takedown attempts, wearing down Wang's defensive efficiency. The Brazilian should focus on fence control and multiple follow-up shots when initial attempts are defended. Maintaining constant forward movement prevents Wang from establishing her striking rhythm while creating opportunities for successful entries and control time.
Once Moura secures takedowns, her priority should be establishing dominant positions and working toward finishes. Her 75% finish rate suggests she should prioritize submission attempts over pure control time. The Brazilian should focus on transitions to mount or back control where her submission threat becomes most dangerous. Ground and pound should be used strategically to accumulate damage while maintaining position. Moura's ability to finish fights becomes crucial if she can overcome Wang's defensive efficiency early.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot octagon creates a compact environment that initially favors Moura's pressure wrestling and ability to close distance quickly. The smaller space reduces Wang's ability to use lateral movement and range control effectively, forcing her into closer exchanges where Moura's wrestling background becomes more dangerous. However, the small cage also limits Moura's ability to circle and reset, potentially compressing the fight into Wang's preferred volume striking if she can establish early dominance. The cage dynamics create a high-pressure environment where the fighter who can impose their will first gains a significant advantage.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: striking volume vs wrestling pressure. Wang's 7.48 SLpM vs Moura's 3.04 SLpM represents a massive volume differential that creates overwhelming scoring opportunities if Wang can establish distance. However, Moura's 3.73 TD/15 rate threatens to neutralize Wang's advantages by forcing close-range exchanges. Wang's 100% takedown defense and 63% striking defense provide excellent damage economy (2.68 SApM vs 2.47), but Moura's 75% finish rate creates submission threats if she can secure positions. The fight hinges on whether Wang's defensive efficiency can contain Moura's wrestling volume.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: range control vs pressure closing, takedown defense vs volume attempts, and damage absorption vs finishing ability. Wang's 100% takedown defense must hold against Moura's 3.73 TD/15 rate, while her 7.48 SLpM volume needs to overwhelm Moura's 37% striking accuracy. The small cage favors Moura's ability to force clinch exchanges, but Wang's superior cardio (4:18 vs 10:19 avg duration) becomes crucial in later rounds. The fight's outcome depends on whether Wang can maintain distance and volume, or if Moura can close persistently enough to implement her wrestling gameplan.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Cong Wang by Decision (42% probability), achieved through volume striking and defensive efficiency that neutralizes Moura's wrestling threats. Wang's KO/TKO path (26%) becomes viable through accumulated damage from her high-volume output. Moura's upset lane centers on Decision victory (14%) if she can establish control time and force close exchanges, or Submission (10%) if she secures dominant positions. Moura's KO/TKO path (4%) is the least likely given her low volume and accuracy disadvantages in stand-up exchanges.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 42% | Fair: +138
GOOD VALUE
Model: 10% | Fair: +900
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 61% | Fair: -156
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights takedown volume – Underprices striking output and accuracy differentials.
- • Undervalues volume striking – High SLpM and accuracy advantage drives scoring optics.
- • Small-cage bias – Helps grappler early, but striking volume compounds over rounds.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Cong Wang
Primary path via high-volume striking and accuracy
Accumulated damage from high-volume output
Scramble opportunities and front-headlock threats
💥Outcome Distribution - Eduarda Moura
Ground-and-pound off dominant top positions
Control-heavy, fence-and-top grinding
RNC-style finish if consistently takes the back
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Eduarda Moura
- • First 5 minutes: Highest pressure equity to close distance.
- • Cage corners: Force Wang into tight spaces for takedowns.
- • Chain attempts: Multiple shots wear down defensive efficiency.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Cong Wang
- • Volume accumulation: Consistent strikes build scoring lead.
- • Counter opportunities: Read and punish takedown attempts.
- • Rhythm control: Dictate pace through superior cardio.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via volume striking and defensive efficiency
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive striking volume advantage (7.48 vs 3.04 SLpM)
- • Superior accuracy (57% vs 37%) and defense
- • Perfect takedown defense (100%) neutralizes pressure
- • Better cardio profile (4:18 vs 10:19 avg duration)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Small cage favors Moura's pressure wrestling
- • Successful takedown sequences could shift momentum
- • Moura has strong finish rate (75%) if she gets positions
🏁Executive Summary
Cong Wang's volume striking and defensive efficiency should establish early dominance in the 25-foot octagon, overwhelming Eduarda Moura's lower-volume approach with precise, consistent attacks. The statistical differentials heavily favor Wang: her 7.48 SLpM vs Moura's 3.04 SLpM creates a massive volume advantage, while her 100% takedown defense neutralizes Moura's 3.73 TD/15 rate. Wang's 4:18 average fight duration with 50% finish rate demonstrates finishing ability, while Moura's 10:19 duration suggests she may struggle maintaining pressure over three competitive rounds. The Chinese fighter's ability to dictate pace through volume creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially in a 3-round format where damage accumulation becomes visually apparent.
Prediction: Wang by Decision most likely (42% probability) through volume striking and defensive dominance; Moura's upset lane centers on Decision victory (14%) via wrestling pressure or Submission (10%) if she secures dominant positions. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Wang can maintain range control, or if Moura can persistently close distance and force her preferred grappling exchanges.