Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Marc-André Barriault
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Saturday, February 7, 2026 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage)
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Michal Oleksiejczuk
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Marc-André Barriault
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Michal Oleksiejczuk
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-16 | Gerald Meerschaert | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 3:03) |
| 2025-04-12 | Sedriques Dumas | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 2:49) |
| 2024-08-03 | Shara Magomedov | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-01 | Kevin Holland | L | Submission - Armbar (R1, 1:34) |
| 2024-03-09 | Michel Pereira | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 1:01) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Marc-André Barriault
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-26 | Shara Magomedov | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-05-10 | Bruno Silva | W | KO/TKO - Clinch Elbows (R1, 1:27) |
| 2024-11-02 | Dustin Stoltzfus | L | KO/TKO - Strikes (R1, 4:28) |
| 2024-06-29 | Joe Pyfer | L | KO/TKO - Punch (R1, 1:25) |
| 2024-01-20 | Chris Curtis | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (68.0 vs 62.0) and Grappling Composite (45.0 vs 30.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Michal Oleksiejczuk Key Advantages
Oleksiejczuk's superior striking defense (59% vs 52%) combined with lower absorption rate (4.51 vs 5.57 SApM) creates a damage economy that heavily favors him in scoring optics. The 1.06 strikes absorbed per minute differential means Oleksiejczuk takes significantly less damage while maintaining offensive output. In the small cage where exchanges are unavoidable, this defensive efficiency becomes decisive—Oleksiejczuk can engage in exchanges knowing he'll absorb less damage than Barriault. The Polish fighter's ability to minimize damage while maximizing power output creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially when combined with the visual impact of clean power shots versus volume strikes.
Oleksiejczuk's knockdown average (1.20 vs 0.41) represents a significant power advantage that becomes decisive in the small cage. While Barriault's 6.02 SLpM output creates volume, Oleksiejczuk's superior accuracy (51% vs 48%) and power mean his shots carry more impact. The small cage eliminates Barriault's ability to maintain distance, forcing him into exchanges where Oleksiejczuk's power advantage becomes apparent. The Polish fighter's two recent R1 TKOs demonstrate his early finishing ability, while Barriault's recent vulnerability to early KOs (3 of last 5 fights ended R1) creates risk against this power threat. In compressed exchanges, quality and impact consistently outweigh volume.
Oleksiejczuk's 06:14 average fight duration with 57% of wins occurring in Round 1 demonstrates exceptional early finishing ability. His two most recent victories both ended in R1 (Meerschaert 3:03, Dumas 2:49), showcasing his power and efficiency in early exchanges. The Polish fighter's ability to find finishing shots quickly becomes particularly dangerous in the small cage where Barriault can't maintain distance. Oleksiejczuk's 81% finish rate combined with his power advantage creates significant early KO equity, especially against Barriault who has shown vulnerability to early finishes (3 of last 5 fights ended R1). This early threat forces Barriault to fight defensively, limiting his volume advantage.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Barriault's clinch elbows and dirty boxing represent his most dangerous weapons in the small cage. His victory over Bruno Silva via clinch elbows (R1, 1:27) demonstrates his ability to finish fights in close quarters. The small cage creates opportunities for Barriault to pin Oleksiejczuk against the fence and work his clinch game, neutralizing the Polish fighter's power advantage. If Barriault can establish cage control and force extended clinch exchanges, his volume and dirty boxing can accumulate damage and potentially create finishing opportunities. Oleksiejczuk's vulnerability to grappling (2 recent R1 submission losses) suggests he struggles when fights become chaotic in close quarters.
If Barriault can establish his volume rhythm and maintain high output throughout three rounds, his 6.02 SLpM advantage could overwhelm Oleksiejczuk's defensive shell. The Canadian's ability to string together combinations and maintain pressure can create significant strike differentials that sway judges, especially if he can avoid clean power shots. Barriault's 09:44 average fight duration suggests he can sustain his pace over extended periods, and if he can survive Oleksiejczuk's early power threat, his volume advantage becomes increasingly significant as the fight progresses.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Oleksiejczuk should utilize his superior accuracy (51% vs 48%) and defensive efficiency to win clean exchanges. His ability to land power shots while absorbing less damage creates advantages in the small cage where exchanges are unavoidable. The Polish fighter should look to counter Barriault's volume with precise power shots, using his defensive shell to minimize damage while waiting for openings. By maintaining composure and not getting drawn into volume wars, Oleksiejczuk can exploit his power advantage and finish fights early, as demonstrated in his two most recent R1 TKOs.
Oleksiejczuk should prioritize avoiding extended clinch exchanges where Barriault's dirty boxing becomes effective. His vulnerability to grappling (2 recent R1 submission losses) suggests he struggles when fights become chaotic in close quarters. The Polish fighter should use footwork and pivots to maintain striking distance, preventing Barriault from pinning him against the fence. By keeping the fight in open space where his power and accuracy advantage can shine, Oleksiejczuk maximizes his chances of landing fight-ending shots while minimizing risk of being overwhelmed by volume or caught in clinch sequences.
🚀 Marc-André Barriault Key Advantages
Barriault's 6.02 SLpM output represents one of the highest striking rates in the middleweight division, creating significant volume advantages when fights remain upright. His ability to maintain this pace while applying pressure makes him difficult to counter effectively. The Canadian's volume becomes particularly dangerous when he can establish rhythm and string together combinations. His 48% accuracy combined with high output can overwhelm opponents who struggle to match his pace, and his ability to maintain pressure forces opponents into defensive shells. In the small cage, Barriault's volume advantage becomes more significant as opponents can't easily escape his pressure.
Barriault's clinch elbows and dirty boxing represent his most dangerous weapons, as demonstrated in his R1 TKO victory over Bruno Silva via clinch elbows. The small cage creates opportunities for Barriault to pin opponents against the fence and work his clinch game, neutralizing power advantages. His ability to transition from striking to clinch seamlessly allows him to control fight location and create finishing opportunities. The Canadian's clinch work becomes particularly effective against opponents who struggle in close quarters, and his ability to land damaging shots from the clinch creates significant finishing equity.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Oleksiejczuk's superior power and accuracy create a nightmare scenario for Barriault—if the Polish fighter lands clean power shots, his knockdown average (1.20 vs 0.41) suggests fight-ending potential. Barriault's high absorption rate (5.57 SApM) means he takes significant damage in exchanges, and his recent vulnerability to early KOs (3 of last 5 fights ended R1) creates risk against Oleksiejczuk's finishing ability. The small cage eliminates Barriault's ability to maintain distance, forcing him into exchanges where Oleksiejczuk's power advantage becomes decisive. Once hurt, Barriault's volume approach becomes ineffective as he struggles to maintain output while defending power shots.
Barriault's high absorption rate (5.57 SApM) combined with inferior defensive metrics (52% StrDef vs 59%) creates vulnerability to damage accumulation. His volume approach requires him to absorb damage to deliver his own, and against a power puncher like Oleksiejczuk, this becomes increasingly dangerous. The Canadian's recent losses demonstrate his vulnerability to early finishes, and if he can't establish his volume rhythm quickly, he becomes susceptible to power shots that can end the fight. The small cage accelerates exchanges, making Barriault's defensive deficiencies more apparent and increasing his risk of being finished early.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Barriault's optimal strategy involves establishing clinch pressure and cage control in the small cage. His clinch elbows and dirty boxing should target Oleksiejczuk's body and head, neutralizing the Polish fighter's power advantage. The small cage creates opportunities for Barriault to pin Oleksiejczuk against the fence and work his clinch game, as demonstrated in his R1 TKO victory over Bruno Silva. By forcing extended clinch exchanges, Barriault can accumulate damage while preventing Oleksiejczuk from landing clean power shots. The key is maintaining pressure and volume while avoiding clean exchanges where Oleksiejczuk's power becomes decisive.
Barriault's best chance for victory lies in establishing his volume rhythm early and maintaining pressure throughout three rounds. His 6.02 SLpM output becomes most dangerous when he can sustain it and create significant strike differentials. The Canadian should look to capitalize on his volume advantage by stringing together combinations and maintaining pressure, forcing Oleksiejczuk into defensive shells. By establishing early momentum and potentially overwhelming Oleksiejczuk with volume, Barriault can win rounds through activity and pressure. His ability to maintain pace over extended periods (09:44 avg duration) suggests he can sustain this approach throughout three rounds if he can avoid early power shots.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot octagon creates a compressed dynamic that favors power strikers over volume fighters. Oleksiejczuk's superior damage efficiency (59% StrDef vs 52%, 4.51 SApM vs 5.57) becomes amplified in the small cage where exchanges are inevitable. Barriault's 6.02 SLpM volume advantage becomes less effective when he can't maintain distance, and his higher absorption rate creates vulnerability in close quarters. The small cage eliminates Barriault's ability to circle and reset, forcing him into exchanges where Oleksiejczuk's power and defensive efficiency create significant advantages. This compressed space transforms Barriault's volume from an asset into a liability, as he absorbs more damage while landing less effectively.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: damage efficiency and power differential. Oleksiejczuk's superior striking defense (59% vs 52%) combined with lower absorption rate (4.51 vs 5.57 SApM) creates a damage economy that heavily favors him in scoring optics. While Barriault's 6.02 SLpM output creates impressive volume, Oleksiejczuk's 51% accuracy vs 48% means he lands more effectively when he chooses to engage. The Polish fighter's knockdown average (1.20 vs 0.41) demonstrates superior power that becomes decisive in the small cage where exchanges are unavoidable. These differentials create a scoring framework where Oleksiejczuk's quality and efficiency consistently outweigh Barriault's volume in judges' eyes, especially when combined with the visual impact of power shots versus volume strikes.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: clean exchange efficiency vs volume pressure, power differential in small cage, and early finishing ability vs durability. Oleksiejczuk's superior defensive metrics (59% StrDef vs 52%) and lower absorption rate create advantages in clean exchanges, while Barriault's volume approach requires him to absorb damage to deliver his own. The small cage eliminates Barriault's ability to maintain distance, forcing him into exchanges where Oleksiejczuk's power advantage becomes decisive. Barriault's recent vulnerability to early KOs (3 of last 5 fights ended R1) creates risk against Oleksiejczuk's finishing ability, while the Polish fighter's two recent R1 TKOs demonstrate his early power threat. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Barriault can establish clinch pressure and volume before Oleksiejczuk's power shots find their mark.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Michal Oleksiejczuk by KO/TKO (38% probability), achieved through superior power and damage efficiency in the compressed small cage environment. Oleksiejczuk's decision path (27%) becomes viable if he controls exchanges with his defensive efficiency and accuracy advantage, winning rounds through quality over volume. Barriault's upset lane centers on early KO/TKO (20%) via clinch elbows and volume pressure, particularly if he can establish cage control and dirty boxing sequences. The Canadian's decision path (12%) requires maintaining high volume while minimizing damage absorption—a scenario that becomes increasingly difficult in the small cage where Oleksiejczuk's power shots are harder to avoid. The fight's compressed timeline (57% under 2.5 rounds) reflects both fighters' finishing ability and the small cage dynamics that accelerate exchanges.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 38% | Fair: +163
GOOD VALUE
Model: 20% | Fair: +400
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 57% | Fair: -133
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues damage efficiency – Oleksiejczuk's superior StrDef and lower SApM create scoring advantages.
- • Overweights volume – Barriault's high SLpM doesn't account for absorption rate.
- • Small cage dynamics – Compressed space favors power over volume in exchanges.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Michal Oleksiejczuk
Clean exchanges favor efficiency over volume
Power advantage and early finishing ability
Low submission threat profile
💥Outcome Distribution - Marc-André Barriault
Clinch elbows and volume pressure
Requires sustained pressure in small cage
Low historical submission profile
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Marc-André Barriault
- • First 3–5 minutes: Establish clinch pressure and volume rhythm.
- • Cage control: Pin opponent against fence, work clinch elbows.
- • Volume pressure: Maintain high output, overwhelm with combinations.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Michal Oleksiejczuk
- • Clean exchanges: Win trades with power and defensive efficiency.
- • Damage economy: Absorb less, land more effectively.
- • Early finishes: Power shots create fight-ending opportunities.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via damage efficiency and power advantage
✅Supporting Factors
- • Superior striking defense (59% vs 52%) and lower SApM (4.51 vs 5.57)
- • Significant power advantage (1.20 vs 0.41 KD avg)
- • Small cage favors power over volume
- • Recent R1 finishing ability (2 consecutive R1 TKOs)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Clinch pressure and dirty boxing from Barriault
- • Volume overwhelm if exchanges become extended
- • Recent vulnerability to early submissions (2 R1 losses)
🏁Executive Summary
Michal Oleksiejczuk's superior damage efficiency and power advantage should prove decisive in the compressed 25-foot octagon, where exchanges are unavoidable and quality consistently outweighs volume. The statistical differentials heavily favor Oleksiejczuk: his 59% StrDef vs Barriault's 52% combined with lower absorption rate (4.51 vs 5.57 SApM) creates a damage economy that heavily favors him in scoring optics. The Polish fighter's knockdown average (1.20 vs 0.41) demonstrates superior power that becomes decisive in the small cage where exchanges are inevitable. Oleksiejczuk's 06:14 average fight duration with 57% of wins in Round 1 demonstrates exceptional early finishing ability, while Barriault's recent vulnerability to early KOs (3 of last 5 fights ended R1) creates risk against this power threat. The small cage eliminates Barriault's ability to maintain distance, forcing him into exchanges where Oleksiejczuk's power and defensive efficiency create significant advantages.
Prediction: Oleksiejczuk by KO/TKO most likely (38% probability) through superior power and damage efficiency in the compressed small cage environment; his decision path (27%) becomes viable if he controls exchanges with defensive efficiency. Barriault's upset lane centers on early KO/TKO (20%) via clinch elbows and volume pressure, particularly if he can establish cage control. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Barriault can establish his volume rhythm and clinch pressure before Oleksiejczuk's power shots find their mark in the small cage.