Eric Nolan vs José Henrique Souza
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs Oliveira
Saturday, February 7, 2026 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage)
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Eric Nolan
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
José Henrique Souza
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Eric Nolan
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-16 | Baisangur Susurkaev | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 2:01) |
| 2025-05-24 | Blayne Richards | W | TKO - Punch (R1, 3:06) |
| 2024-12-13 | Trevor Gudde | W | TKO - Punch (R2, 1:17) |
| 2024-10-18 | Aireon Tavarres | W | TKO - Punch (R1, 3:06) |
| 2024-04-12 | R'Mandel Cameron | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - José Henrique Souza
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-13 | Porfirio Alves | W | KO/TKO - Strikes (R2, 2:30) |
| 2024-01-20 | Alexandre Silva | W | Decision - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-02 | Leonardo Guimarães | W | DQ (R4, 1:24) |
| 2023-02-03 | Alan Silva | W | KO/TKO - Strikes (R3, 4:55) |
| 2022-08-30 | Yusaku Kinoshita | L | KO/TKO - Strikes (R3, 0:43) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (40.0 vs 42.5) and Grappling Composite (18.0 vs 9.5). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Eric Nolan Key Advantages
Nolan's 75% finish rate (6 finishes out of 8 wins) with explosive KO/TKO finishes demonstrates his ability to capitalize on exchanges. His 4 TKO wins showcase a heavy hand and ability to end fights when he finds openings. While absorbing strikes at 5.13 per minute, Nolan's 41% defense rate is solid against Souza's 43% accuracy, but his finishing ability creates high-variance moments where he can steal rounds or end the fight entirely.
The slight strikes absorbed differential (5.13 vs 5.79) shows Nolan is marginally less hit than Souza, despite both being strike-absorbing fighters. Nolan's 41% defense rate edges Souza's 38% slightly, meaning he takes fewer clean shots while maintaining offensive output. This defensive efficiency becomes crucial in a small cage where exchanges are unavoidable—Nolan can weather Souza's volume without accumulating the same damage, preserving his finishing potential for key moments.
Nolan's 2 submission victories (including his UFC debut finish) demonstrate grappling acumen despite limited takedown attempts. While both fighters show minimal grappling data, Nolan's submission wins suggest he can threaten Souza if they end up in a scramble or against the fence. Souza's 0 submission wins and 0% grappling composite highlight potential vulnerability if Nolan can force close-range exchanges where his wrestling background might create submission opportunities.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Nolan's 5-inch reach disadvantage (74" vs 79") puts him at a significant striking distance challenge. Souza's superior range allows him to land cleaner shots while staying outside Nolan's effective punching range. The Brazilian's height advantage compounds this, making it difficult for Nolan to close distance without absorbing damage. If Souza maintains discipline and uses his reach effectively, he could control the fight from the outside.
If Nolan cannot finish Souza quickly and the fight goes beyond the first round, Souza's 3.45 SLpM output advantage becomes problematic. Both fighters absorb significant strikes (5.13 vs 5.79 SApM), but Souza's higher volume could accumulate damage over three rounds. Nolan's 8-4 record suggests some durability issues, and if Souza maintains his output without getting finished, the volume differential could decide close rounds.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Nolan should use his height and reach disadvantage to his advantage by pressuring forward relentlessly. His 66.7% win rate suggests success when he controls the pace. By cutting off the cage and forcing Souza to fight in close quarters, Nolan can minimize Souza's reach advantage and create opportunities for his explosive finishes. The small cage favors his pressure style, forcing Souza to engage where Nolan has shown finishing ability.
Nolan's 41% defense rate suggests he can weather Souza's initial volleys and look for counter opportunities. His submission wins indicate he has grappling tools if he can close distance. By staying patient and letting Souza commit to strikes, Nolan can time counters and use his finishing ability to end the fight quickly. The key is not getting overwhelmed by Souza's volume but picking moments to strike back with power.
🚀 José Henrique Souza Key Advantages
Souza's 79-inch reach advantage (vs Nolan's 74") combined with his 6'3" height creates significant striking control opportunities. His superior range allows him to land cleaner shots while staying outside Nolan's effective punching distance. The Brazilian's height and reach advantages compound in the small cage, where he can maintain distance and use his jab and straight punches to control the fight. His 43% accuracy ensures these long-range weapons land consistently.
Souza's 3.45 SLpM output edges Nolan's 3.14 SLpM, creating volume advantages when fights remain standing. The Brazilian's higher pace becomes dangerous over three rounds, especially against Nolan's 5.13 SApM absorption rate. Souza's consistency in maintaining output while managing defense could overwhelm Nolan if the fight stays upright. His 88.9% win rate suggests success when he can impose his rhythm and volume.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Nolan's 75% finish rate and explosive KO/TKO style creates a constant threat for Souza. If Nolan lands clean and gets Souza hurt, his finishing ability could end the fight quickly. Souza's 5.79 SApM absorption rate suggests he takes significant damage, and Nolan's power punches could capitalize on any mistakes. The small cage forces Souza to engage where Nolan has shown his best finishes.
If Nolan successfully cuts off the cage and forces Souza into close-range fighting, Souza's reach advantage becomes neutralized. Nolan's submission wins and pressure style could force Souza into uncomfortable positions. While Souza has shown good volume, maintaining output while defending against Nolan's aggression could be challenging, especially if the fight becomes a phone booth war in the small cage.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Souza's optimal strategy revolves around using his reach and height advantages to maintain distance. His jab and straight punches should keep Nolan at bay while landing clean shots. The Brazilian should use lateral movement and range to prevent Nolan from closing the distance and forcing close-range exchanges. By staying outside and using his accuracy (43%), Souza can control the fight's pace and accumulate damage.
Souza should look to establish his volume advantage early and maintain consistent output throughout. His 3.45 SLpM pace could overwhelm Nolan if he can stay outside and avoid pressure. The Brazilian's 88.9% win rate suggests success when he can impose his rhythm, so maintaining activity and landing combinations could create separation on the scorecards over three rounds.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—initially favoring Souza's range weapons and movement, but potentially shifting toward Nolan's pressure if he can close distance. Souza's 79-inch reach and 6'3" height give him significant advantages when he can maintain distance and utilize his jab and straight punches effectively. However, Nolan's relentless forward pressure could compress the available space, forcing Souza into uncomfortable close-range exchanges. The American's finishing ability transforms the small cage into a pressure cooker where Souza's reach becomes less effective.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: range control and finishing ability. Souza's reach advantage (79" vs 74") creates significant control opportunities when he can maintain distance. While Souza's striking output (3.45 SLpM, 43% accuracy) creates volume advantages, Nolan's finishing ability (75% rate) and defensive efficiency (41% rate vs Souza's 38%) create explosive moments. Nolan's submission wins add another layer, while Souza's superior reach could neutralize Nolan's pressure if he maintains discipline.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: range control vs pressure, finishing ability vs volume, and defensive resilience vs offensive output. Souza's reach advantage suggests he can control distance, but Nolan's finishing ability (75% rate) creates explosive moments. Nolan's defensive efficiency (41% vs 38%) could allow him to weather Souza's volume, while his submission wins add unpredictability. The small cage favors Nolan's pressure but Souza's reach could neutralize it if he maintains discipline.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is José Henrique Souza by Decision (40% probability), achieved through range control, volume output, and reach advantage over three rounds. Souza's KO/TKO path (35%) becomes viable if he lands clean shots and capitalizes on his accuracy advantage. Nolan's upset lane centers on KO/TKO (25%) via explosive finishes if he can close distance and land power punches. Nolan's decision path (20%) requires pressuring Souza into uncomfortable exchanges, but Souza's reach could neutralize this strategy.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
GOOD VALUE
SLIGHT VALUE
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights early KO volatility – Underprices five-round wrestling cycles.
- • Undervalues damage economy – Low SApM differential drives optics on cards.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps early, but fence/rides erode it late.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Eric Nolan
Primary path via fence control and rides
Attritional GNP and accumulative pressure
Back-takes off rides create RNC chances
💥Outcome Distribution - José Henrique Souza
Best lane via intercepts and counters
Requires extended range control in big cage
Low historical submission profile
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - José Henrique Souza
- • First 7–10 minutes: Highest intercept KO equity.
- • Perimeter control: Teeps + calf kicks to stall entries.
- • Short pockets: Burst then reset; avoid extended clinch.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Eric Nolan
- • Chain shots: Re-mats and rides bank control and sap pace.
- • Damage economy: Keep exchanges short; minimize risk.
- • Late minutes: Safer control edges decision likelihood.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via wrestling cycles and safer damage profile
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant takedown volume edge (3.25 vs 0.73 TD15)
- • Lower SApM and better damage economy
- • Ride control creates safe scoring minutes
- • Proven cardio over three rounds; scalable to five
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Intercept knees/uppercuts vs level changes
- • Big cage extends early range time
- • Nolan's finishing power and pressure tactics
🏁Executive Summary
José Henrique Souza's reach and volume advantages should control the 25-foot octagon space through superior range management, while Eric Nolan's best equity centers on explosive finishes and pressure tactics to close distance. The statistical differentials slightly favor Souza: his reach advantage (79" vs 74") and volume output (3.45 SLpM vs 3.14) create control opportunities, while Nolan's finishing ability (75% rate) creates high-variance moments. Souza's 88.9% win rate suggests success when he can impose distance, while Nolan's 66.7% rate indicates effectiveness when he can pressure opponents into uncomfortable exchanges.
Prediction: Souza by Decision most likely (40% probability) through range control and volume accumulation; Nolan's upset lane is KO/TKO (25%) via explosive finishes if he can close distance. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Souza can maintain his reach advantage or Nolan can force close-range exchanges.