Bruna Brasil vs Ketlen Souza
Women's Strawweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs Oliveira
Saturday, February 7, 2026 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage)
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Bruna Brasil
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Ketlen Souza
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Bruna Brasil
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-22 | Ming Shi | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-08 | Cong Wang | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-27 | Molly McCann | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-10 | Loma Lookboonmee | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-22 | Shauna Bannon | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Ketlen Souza
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-02 | Piera Rodriguez | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-15 | Angela Hill | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-14 | Yazmin Jauregui | W | Submission - Armbar (R1, 3:02) |
| 2024-04-27 | Marnic Mann | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-03 | Karine Silva | L | Submission - Armbar (R1, 1:45) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66.0 vs 66.0) and Grappling Composite (78.0 vs 55.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Bruna Brasil Key Advantages
1.55 takedowns per 15min vs 0.43 represents a 3.6x differential that fundamentally shifts fight control in the small cage. Brasil's clinch-to-takedown sequences—body locks, outside singles, and mat returns—create minute-winning cycles that accumulate control time. Her 67% takedown accuracy against Souza's 64% defense suggests she can convert attempts effectively, especially in the 25-foot cage where space is limited. Brasil's ability to chain multiple attempts and maintain pressure while Souza defends creates fatigue differentials that compound over three rounds.
The 0.32 strikes absorbed per minute differential (4.14 vs 4.46) creates a slight damage economy advantage for Brasil, though both fighters absorb significant volume. While Souza's 4.92 SLpM output can rack volume, Brasil's 48% striking defense and slightly lower absorption rate mean she takes marginally less damage. This defensive efficiency becomes important over three rounds—Brasil maintains her pace without accumulating excessive damage, while Souza's high-volume approach leaves her vulnerable to takedowns and clinch control. Brasil's ability to minimize damage while maximizing control time creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially when combined with takedown control.
Brasil's 12:53 average fight duration with 73% of wins occurring in Round 3 demonstrates exceptional cardiovascular conditioning and strategic pacing. Her grappling-heavy approach creates sustainable pressure that escalates rather than diminishes as fights progress. Brasil's ability to maintain 2.77 SLpM while executing takedown chains shows efficient energy management—she doesn't gas from striking exchanges because she controls the pace through grappling. This cardio advantage becomes decisive in Round 3 where Souza's high-volume striking (4.92 SLpM) becomes increasingly difficult to sustain, especially when defending takedowns and fighting off her back in the small cage.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Souza's high-volume striking and power shots represent her most dangerous weapons against Brasil's level changes. Souza's 4.92 SLpM output allows her to overwhelm opponents with volume while threatening intercept strikes as Brasil commits to takedown attempts. Historical data shows Souza's success against grapplers when she can maintain distance and time her strikes—her combination punching and power shots create fight-ending opportunities. Brasil's predictable entry patterns could be exploited if Souza maintains composure and doesn't panic under pressure in the small cage.
If Brasil fails to establish consistent pressure and the fight remains at extended range, Souza's 4.92 SLpM volume advantage becomes significant. Even in the 25-foot cage, Souza can use her footwork to create space, reset, and maintain her preferred striking distance. Her 59% accuracy combined with high output can overwhelm Brasil's defensive shell (48% StrDef), especially if Brasil becomes hesitant to shoot after early intercept attempts. Souza's ability to rack up significant strike differentials in rounds where she maintains distance could sway judges, particularly in early rounds before Brasil's pressure begins to take effect.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Brasil should utilize jab feints and low kicks to force Souza into a high guard, creating openings for level changes. Her 59% striking accuracy suggests she can land these setup strikes while maintaining defensive positioning. Brasil's ability to mix striking entries with takedown attempts keeps Souza guessing and prevents her from settling into rhythm. By varying her approach—sometimes feinting shots, sometimes committing—Brasil can exploit Souza's tendency to overreact to takedown threats, creating opportunities for clean entries and subsequent control sequences in the small cage.
Once Brasil secures takedowns, her priority should be establishing dominant positions and accumulating control time. Her grappling background emphasizes mat returns, wrist control, and short hammerfists rather than submission attempts. This approach maximizes scoring while minimizing risk—Brasil can bank minutes through rides and positional control without exposing herself to submission attempts or sweeps. Brasil's 54% takedown defense suggests she can maintain top position once established, making this strategy both effective and sustainable over three rounds in the small cage.
🚀 Ketlen Souza Key Advantages
Souza's 4.92 SLpM output (vs Brasil's 2.77) represents a significant volume advantage that creates striking opportunities throughout the fight. Her arsenal includes combination punching, power shots, and intercept strikes that can deter takedown attempts while scoring points. Souza's ability to maintain high output and vary her attack angles makes her difficult to read, while her 59% striking accuracy ensures these strikes land with consistency. Even in the 25-foot cage, Souza can use her volume to overwhelm Brasil's defense (48% StrDef), forcing Brasil to cover more ground and commit to longer entries that expose her to counters.
Souza's 4.92 SLpM output represents one of the highest striking rates in the strawweight division, creating significant volume advantages when fights remain upright. Her ability to maintain this pace while varying attack angles makes her difficult to counter effectively. Souza's volume becomes particularly dangerous in early rounds when she's fresh and can sustain high output without fatigue. Her 59% accuracy means she's landing clean shots consistently, and her ability to string together combinations can overwhelm opponents who struggle to match her pace or establish their own rhythm.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Brasil's clinch-to-takedown sequences create a nightmare scenario for Souza—once Brasil secures takedowns, her ability to chain shots, establish rides, and execute mat returns prevents Souza from regaining her feet or establishing striking rhythm. Souza's 64% takedown defense suggests she can stuff initial attempts, but Brasil's re-shot ability and persistence typically break through, especially in the small cage. Once on the ground, Souza's striking output drops to near zero while Brasil accumulates control time and scoring opportunities. This scenario becomes increasingly likely as the fight progresses and Souza's cardio begins to fade.
Souza's 8:42 average fight duration suggests she struggles to maintain her high-volume striking approach over extended periods. Her 4.92 SLpM output becomes increasingly difficult to sustain as fights progress, especially when combined with takedown defense and grappling exchanges. Souza's cardio limitations become particularly apparent in Round 3 where Brasil's wrestling pressure escalates. Souza's tendency to fade in later rounds, combined with her high absorption rate (4.46 SApM), creates a dangerous combination where she becomes increasingly vulnerable to both striking counters and takedowns as her energy reserves deplete.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Souza's optimal strategy involves maintaining distance control while threatening intercept strikes. Her combination punching and power shots should target Brasil's base and mobility, making takedown entries more difficult. Souza's ability to vary her attack angles and maintain high output keeps Brasil guessing. When Brasil does commit to shots, Souza should threaten uppercuts and hooks to deter entries and create counter opportunities. The key is maintaining distance while staying active enough to score points and prevent Brasil from settling into rhythm or establishing consistent pressure in the small cage.
Souza's best chance for victory lies in front-loading damage during the first two rounds when she's fresh and Brasil hasn't yet established her wrestling rhythm. Souza should look to capitalize on her early energy advantage by maintaining high output and landing clean shots before Brasil's pressure begins to take effect. Her 4.92 SLpM output becomes most dangerous when she can sustain it without grappling exchanges or takedown defense draining her energy. By establishing early momentum and potentially scoring knockdowns or significant damage, Souza can force Brasil to fight from behind and potentially alter Brasil's gameplan.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot octagon creates a fascinating dynamic in this matchup—initially favoring Souza's volume striking and movement, but gradually shifting toward Brasil's pressure as the fight progresses. Souza's 4.92 SLpM output gives her significant advantages in the early rounds when she can maintain distance and utilize her combination punching effectively. However, Brasil's relentless pressure and clinch-to-takedown sequences gradually compress the available space in the 25-foot cage, forcing Souza into increasingly uncomfortable positions. Brasil's ability to cut off angles and force exchanges at the fence transforms the small cage from Souza's potential advantage into Brasil's weapon, creating a progressive advantage that compounds over three rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals two primary battlefields where this fight will be decided: takedown activity and volume control. Brasil's 1.55 TD15 vs Souza's 0.43 represents a 3.6x differential that fundamentally alters fight control and scoring dynamics in the small cage. While Souza's striking moments (4.92 SLpM, 59% accuracy) create impressive volume, Brasil's slightly better damage economy (4.14 SApM vs 4.46) combined with her takedown threat creates a scoring advantage. Brasil's 48% striking defense combined with her wrestling threat forces Souza into uncomfortable exchanges where her high-volume approach becomes less effective. These differentials create a scoring framework where Brasil's control time and takedown efficiency consistently outweigh Souza's striking output in judges' eyes, especially in the small cage.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: first-layer takedown defense vs clinch wrestling at the fence, volume striking vs level changes, and late-round pace durability. Souza's 64% takedown defense suggests she can stuff initial attempts, but Brasil's persistence and re-shot ability typically break through over time, especially in the small cage. Souza's intercept weapons (combination punching, uppercuts) represent her most dangerous tools against Brasil's entries, but Brasil's ability to vary her approach and mix striking with takedowns makes these counters less predictable. As the fight progresses, Brasil's superior cardio (12:53 avg duration vs 8:42) becomes increasingly decisive, especially when combined with her wrestling pressure that forces Souza to expend energy defending takedowns and fighting off her back.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Bruna Brasil by Decision (48% probability), achieved through consistent takedown pressure, control time accumulation, and superior grappling control over three rounds. Brasil's KO/TKO path (14%) becomes viable if her ground-and-pound accumulates damage through rides and mat returns, particularly in later rounds when Souza's cardio begins to fade. Souza's upset lane centers on early KO/TKO (14%) via volume striking and power shots as Brasil commits to takedown attempts. Souza's decision path (17%) requires maintaining extended range control throughout three rounds—a scenario that becomes increasingly unlikely as Brasil's pressure escalates and the small cage space compresses.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 48% | Fair: +108
GOOD VALUE
Model: 14% | Fair: +614
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 70% | Fair: -233
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights early KO volatility – Underprices five-round wrestling cycles.
- • Undervalues damage economy – Low SApM differential drives optics on cards.
- • Big-cage bias – Space helps early, but fence/rides erode it late.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Bruna Brasil
Primary path via clinch control and takedowns
Ground-and-pound accumulation
Positional control opportunities
💥Outcome Distribution - Ketlen Souza
Best lane via volume and power strikes
Requires extended range control in small cage
Scramble opportunities
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Ketlen Souza
- • First 5–7 minutes: Highest volume striking equity.
- • Distance control: Combination punching to stall entries.
- • Short exchanges: Burst then reset; avoid extended clinch.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Bruna Brasil
- • Clinch control: Takedowns and rides bank control and sap pace.
- • Damage economy: Keep exchanges short; minimize risk.
- • Round 3: Control time edges decision likelihood.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate edge via takedown control in small cage
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant takedown volume edge (1.55 vs 0.43 TD15)
- • Small cage favors clinch/grappling control
- • Higher takedown accuracy (67% vs 25%)
- • Physical advantages (height, reach, leg reach)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Souza's high-volume striking (4.92 vs 2.77 SLpM)
- • Brasil's low striking defense (48%)
- • Souza's finish rate advantage (67% vs 45%)
🏁Executive Summary
Bruna Brasil's systematic approach to fight control should steadily compress the 25-foot octagon space and bank safe minutes through clinch-to-takedown sequences, while Ketlen Souza's best equity centers on early volume striking and power shots before Brasil's pressure takes hold. The statistical differentials favor Brasil: her 1.55 TD15 vs Souza's 0.43 creates a 3.6x takedown volume advantage, while her 4.14 SApM vs Souza's 4.46 represents slightly better damage economy that compounds over three rounds. Brasil's 12:53 average fight duration with 73% of wins in Round 3 demonstrates exceptional cardio management, while Souza's 8:42 duration suggests struggles maintaining her high-volume approach over extended periods. Brasil's ability to minimize damage while maximizing control time creates a scoring framework that judges consistently reward, especially in Round 3 where damage accumulation becomes visually apparent.
Prediction: Brasil by Decision most likely (48% probability) through consistent takedown pressure and control time accumulation; Souza's upset lane is early KO/TKO (14%) via volume striking and power shots as Brasil commits to takedown attempts. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Souza can capitalize on her early volume advantages before Brasil's wrestling pressure and superior cardio become decisive factors in the small cage.