Alex Morono vs Daniil Donchenko
Men's Welterweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs Oliveira
Saturday, February 7, 2026 • 25ft Octagon (Small Cage)
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Alex Morono
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Daniil Donchenko
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Alex Morono
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-08 | Carlos Leal | L | TKO (Punches) (R1, 4:16) |
| 2024-10-12 | Daniel Rodriguez | L | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-01 | Niko Price | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-06 | Court McGee | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-07 | Joaquin Buckley | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Daniil Donchenko
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | Rodrigo Sezinando | W | TKO (Strikes) (R1, 4:27) |
| 2025-03-12 | Matt Dixon | W | TKO (Punches) (R1, 2:11) |
| 2025-02-19 | Richard Martins | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R2, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-23 | Rustem Kudaybergenov | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-06 | Kanybek Zhanybek uulu | W | Submission (Rear Naked Choke) (R4, 4:31) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (36.6 vs 92.7) and Grappling Composite (12.8 vs 63.5). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Alex Morono Key Advantages
Morono's 23 UFC fights represent extensive experience against diverse styles and gameplans. His ability to read opponents, adjust mid-fight, and exploit openings comes from years of high-level competition. The veteran's understanding of scoring criteria, round management, and when to push or conserve energy can neutralize Donchenko's statistical advantages if the fight becomes tactical. Morono's 13-9 UFC record shows he's been tested against elite competition and knows how to survive adversity, create scrambles, and find submission opportunities when opponents make mistakes.
Morono's 0.33 SubPer15 and seven career submissions represent his most dangerous weapon against Donchenko's aggressive approach. The veteran's BJJ background allows him to capitalize on scrambles, front headlocks, guillotines, and back-takes when opponents overcommit. In the small cage, if Donchenko pushes forward recklessly or enters Morono's guard without proper posture, submission opportunities emerge quickly. Morono's ability to create chaos and find necks or limbs in transitions gives him a path to victory that doesn't require winning the striking exchanges or controlling rounds.
Morono's distribution shows 12 of his 24 career wins occurred in Round 3, demonstrating his ability to pace fights and capitalize late. His veteran IQ allows him to read opponents, adjust tactics, and find openings as fights progress. If Morono can survive early pressure and drag Donchenko into deep waters, his experience in championship rounds becomes valuable. The small cage limits Donchenko's ability to reset and recover, potentially allowing Morono to create clinch situations, scrambles, or submission opportunities as both fighters fatigue.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Donchenko's 8.76 SLpM with 57% accuracy creates an overwhelming volume advantage that Morono's 56% defense struggles to contain. The small cage limits Morono's ability to circle and reset, forcing him into exchanges where Donchenko's superior output and precision compound. Morono's 4.78 SApM means he absorbs significant damage when forced to trade, and Donchenko's 72% defense ensures clean counters are rare. If the fight remains a striking battle, Donchenko's statistical advantages become insurmountable over three rounds.
Donchenko's 3.37 TD15 against Morono's 47% takedown defense creates a dangerous dynamic in the small cage. Morono's inability to stuff takedowns consistently means Donchenko can control rounds through wrestling, ground control, and ground-and-pound. Once Donchenko secures takedowns, Morono's submission threats become less viable as he's forced to defend from bottom position. The small cage amplifies this advantage, limiting Morono's ability to create space and scramble back to his feet.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Morono's best path to victory involves creating chaotic scrambles where his BJJ experience can shine. When Donchenko shoots for takedowns or pushes forward, Morono should look for front headlock opportunities, guillotines, or back-takes. His 0.33 SubPer15 and seven career submissions show he can capitalize on opponent mistakes. The veteran should avoid extended striking exchanges where Donchenko's volume and precision dominate, instead focusing on clinch entries, scrambles, and submission threats that force Donchenko to fight defensively.
Morono's 23 UFC fights have taught him how to survive early pressure and find opportunities as fights progress. His ability to read opponents, adjust tactics, and capitalize on mistakes becomes more valuable in Round 3 when both fighters are fatigued. The veteran should focus on defensive positioning early, avoid taking unnecessary damage, and look for openings to create clinch situations or submission opportunities. If Morono can drag Donchenko into deep waters, his experience in championship rounds could prove decisive.
🚀 Daniil Donchenko Key Advantages
Donchenko's 8.76 SLpM with 57% accuracy creates an overwhelming striking advantage that Morono's 56% defense struggles to contain. The combination of high volume and precision means Donchenko lands significantly more clean shots while maintaining defensive positioning. His ability to string together combinations and maintain output over three rounds overwhelms opponents who can't match his pace. The small cage amplifies this advantage by limiting Morono's ability to circle and reset, forcing exchanges where Donchenko's statistical superiority compounds.
Donchenko's 72% striking defense combined with only 2.25 SApM creates a damage economy that heavily favors him. While Morono lands 5.03 SLpM, Donchenko's defensive efficiency ensures few clean shots connect. The 2.53 SApM differential (4.78 vs 2.25) means Donchenko absorbs 53% less damage, creating a scoring framework where his volume and precision consistently outweigh Morono's output. This defensive advantage compounds over three rounds, making it increasingly difficult for Morono to land significant strikes or create submission opportunities.
Donchenko's 3.37 TD15 against Morono's 47% takedown defense creates a dominant wrestling advantage, especially in the small cage where escape routes are limited. The 10.2x takedown volume differential allows Donchenko to control rounds through wrestling, ground control, and ground-and-pound. Once Donchenko secures takedowns, his 75% takedown defense ensures he maintains top position, while Morono's submission threats become less viable from bottom. The small cage amplifies this advantage by limiting Morono's ability to create space and scramble.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Morono's seven career submissions and opportunistic BJJ represent Donchenko's primary risk if he overcommits to takedowns or enters scrambles without proper posture. The veteran's ability to capitalize on front headlocks, guillotines, and back-takes means Donchenko must maintain discipline in his wrestling entries and ground control. If Donchenko becomes reckless in pursuit of finishes or control time, Morono's submission threats become viable. The small cage limits Donchenko's ability to reset if he gets caught in dangerous positions.
Donchenko's statistical profile is based on only one UFC fight, creating uncertainty about how he performs against veteran competition. While his numbers are impressive, the sample size is minimal, and Morono's 23 UFC fights mean he's seen every style and gameplan. If Morono can create chaos, disrupt rhythm, or force Donchenko into unfamiliar situations, the statistical advantages may not translate to actual fight outcomes. The veteran's ability to read and adjust could neutralize Donchenko's advantages if the fight becomes tactical rather than statistical.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Donchenko should utilize his 8.76 SLpM output to overwhelm Morono's defense while mixing in takedown threats to keep the veteran guessing. His 3.37 TD15 advantage becomes particularly effective in the small cage where Morono's 47% takedown defense is exploitable. By combining high volume striking with functional wrestling, Donchenko can control rounds through both striking differentials and ground control. The small cage amplifies this approach by limiting Morono's ability to circle and reset, forcing exchanges where Donchenko's statistical advantages compound.
Donchenko's primary risk is Morono's submission threats, so maintaining proper posture in takedown entries and ground control is critical. When securing takedowns, Donchenko should focus on ground-and-pound and positional control rather than exposing himself to submission attempts. His 75% takedown defense suggests he can maintain top position once established, but he must avoid reckless entries or scrambles where Morono's BJJ experience can shine. By staying disciplined and methodical, Donchenko can neutralize Morono's primary path to victory while maximizing his own statistical advantages.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
The 25-foot UFC Apex cage creates a dynamic that heavily favors Donchenko's pressure and control approach. The small cage limits Morono's ability to circle, reset, and create distance, forcing exchanges where Donchenko's volume (8.76 SLpM) and precision (57% accuracy) compound. Morono's submission threats become less viable when he can't create space to scramble, while Donchenko's wrestling advantage (3.37 TD15 vs 0.33) becomes more effective in the confined space. The small cage amplifies Donchenko's statistical advantages by limiting Morono's primary defensive tools: movement and space creation. This environment transforms the fight from a tactical battle into a statistical mismatch where Donchenko's advantages compound over three rounds.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals overwhelming advantages for Donchenko across multiple dimensions: striking volume (8.76 vs 5.03 SLpM), precision (57% vs 40% accuracy), defensive efficiency (72% defense, 2.25 SApM vs 56% defense, 4.78 SApM), and wrestling control (3.37 vs 0.33 TD15). These differentials create a scoring framework where Donchenko consistently wins minutes through both striking output and ground control. Morono's primary advantages—veteran experience and submission threats—require specific scenarios to manifest, while Donchenko's statistical advantages apply to every exchange. The small cage amplifies these advantages by limiting Morono's ability to create the chaos and scrambles where his BJJ experience can shine.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: Donchenko's volume and precision overwhelming Morono's defense, wrestling control neutralizing Morono's submission threats, and Morono's ability to create scrambles and chaos. Donchenko's 8.76 SLpM with 57% accuracy creates an insurmountable striking advantage if the fight remains upright, while his 3.37 TD15 against Morono's 47% takedown defense allows him to control rounds through wrestling. Morono's primary path to victory requires creating scrambles where his BJJ experience can capitalize on Donchenko's mistakes, but the small cage limits these opportunities. Donchenko's discipline and statistical advantages should neutralize Morono's veteran tricks over three rounds.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Daniil Donchenko by KO/TKO (44% probability), achieved through volume and precision overwhelming Morono's defense, particularly in the small cage where escape routes are limited. Donchenko's decision path (27%) represents a secondary route via wrestling control and minute-winning if Morono survives early pressure. Morono's upset lane centers on Submission (8%) via opportunistic BJJ in scrambles, or Decision (14%) if he can survive early pressure and leverage veteran experience. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Morono can create chaos and submission opportunities before Donchenko's statistical advantages compound over three rounds in the small cage.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 44% | Fair: +127
GOOD VALUE
Model: 27% | Fair: +270
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 45% | Fair: +122
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues statistical gaps – Massive differentials in volume, precision, and defense.
- • Overweights veteran experience – Morono's experience can't overcome statistical disadvantages.
- • Small-cage amplification – 25ft cage amplifies Donchenko's pressure and control advantages.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Alex Morono
Veteran experience and round management
Opportunistic BJJ threats in scrambles
Low probability against superior defense
💥Outcome Distribution - Daniil Donchenko
Volume and precision overwhelm defense
Wrestling control and minute-winning
Ground-and-pound transitions
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Alex Morono
- • Early scrambles: Submission opportunities if Donchenko overcommits.
- • Veteran tricks: Create chaos and disrupt rhythm with BJJ threats.
- • Round 3: Leverage experience if fight goes to decision.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Daniil Donchenko
- • Volume + precision: Overwhelm with 8.76 SLpM and 57% accuracy.
- • Wrestling control: Small cage amplifies 3.37 TD15 advantage.
- • Damage accumulation: Compound advantages over three rounds.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong statistical edge but limited UFC sample size
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive striking volume edge (8.76 vs 5.03 SLpM)
- • Superior precision and defense (57% acc, 72% def)
- • Wrestling functional (3.37 TD15 vs 0.33)
- • Small cage amplifies pressure and control
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Only 1 UFC fight sample size
- • Morono's veteran experience and submission threats
- • Potential for veteran tricks and scrambles
🏁Executive Summary
Daniil Donchenko's statistical profile suggests a dominant performance in the 25-foot UFC Apex cage, where his combination of volume (8.76 SLpM), precision (57% accuracy), and defensive efficiency (72% defense, 2.25 SApM) creates overwhelming advantages. The small cage amplifies his wrestling threat (3.37 TD15) against Alex Morono's vulnerable takedown defense (47%), while Donchenko's superior striking differential compounds over three rounds. Morono's veteran experience and submission threats (8% win probability via sub) represent his primary path to victory, but Donchenko's disciplined approach and functional wrestling should neutralize those opportunities. The statistical gaps are substantial: Donchenko lands 74% more strikes per minute while absorbing 53% fewer, creating a damage economy that heavily favors the younger fighter. Morono's recent form (3 losses, including a TKO R1) suggests declining durability, while Donchenko's 7-fight win streak and 83% finish rate demonstrate momentum and finishing ability.
Prediction: Donchenko by KO/TKO most likely (44% probability) through volume and precision overwhelming Morono's defense, particularly in the small cage where escape routes are limited. Donchenko by Decision (27%) represents a secondary path via wrestling control and minute-winning. Morono's upset lane centers on Submission (8%) via opportunistic BJJ in scrambles, or Decision (14%) if he can survive early pressure and leverage veteran experience. The fight's outcome hinges on whether Morono can create chaos and submission opportunities before Donchenko's statistical advantages compound over three rounds.