Donte Johnson vs Sedriques Dumas
UFC Apex • UFC 321
Saturday, November 1, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
Last 5 Fights - Donte Johnson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-26 | Darion Abbey | W | TKO (punches) (R1, 1:04) |
| 2025-07-27 | James Ford | W | KO (punch) (R1, 3:37) |
| 2025-06-14 | Ryan Parker | W | TKO (strikes) (R1, 4:27) |
| 2025-04-19 | Jordan Seufzer | W | TKO (punches) (R1, 1:24) |
| 2025-03-23 | Deontre Butts | W | KO (punch) (R1, 1:09) |
Last 5 Fights - Sedriques Dumas
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | Zachary Reese | NC | No Contest (accidental groin kick) (R1, 0:51) |
| 2025-04-12 | Michal Oleksiejczuk | L | TKO (punches and elbows) (R1, 2:49) |
| 2024-08-03 | Denis Tiuliulin | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-30 | Nursulton Ruziboev | L | TKO (punches) (R1, 3:18) |
| 2023-10-21 | Abu Azaitar | W | Decision (unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Donte Johnson advantage: 24.0%Cardio Score
Donte Johnson advantage: 29.3%Overall Rating
Donte Johnson advantage: 26.9%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Measures complete technical skills across offense and defense.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, pace (SLpM, TD15), and finish tendencies. Reflects endurance and ability to maintain output through rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical and Cardio scores. Provides a holistic capability estimate for each fighter.
Striking Composite
Donte Johnson advantage: 30.9%Grappling Composite
Donte Johnson advantage: 15.6%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15).
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧨 Donte Johnson Key Advantages
Undefeated with all wins in Round 1; blitz entries and counter timing create high early KO equity. His perfect 6-0 record with an average finish time of just 2:02 demonstrates devastating early power. Every opponent has fallen in the first round, with finishes coming as early as 33 seconds and as late as 4:27. This consistency across different opponents and venues suggests legitimate finishing ability rather than lucky shots. The 71% striking accuracy from his DWCS bout indicates precise power rather than volume-based overwhelm, making his early threat particularly dangerous for Dumas's documented vulnerability to fast starters.
Short, compact frame enables quick closing of distance; ideal for small-cage exchanges. Standing at 5'8" with a 74" reach, Johnson's compact build becomes an asset in the 25-foot Apex cage. His shorter stature allows him to duck under Dumas's long strikes and explode into the pocket with power combinations. The reported 50-pound body transformation from his heavyweight days suggests retained power at middleweight while gaining speed and agility. The small cage amplifies this advantage by reducing the distance he needs to cover, creating more opportunities for explosive entries that have proven so effective in his career.
His 71% striking accuracy from the DWCS bout demonstrates exceptional precision and shot selection. This isn't a volume-based fighter throwing wild combinations—Johnson picks his shots carefully and lands them with devastating effect. The accuracy advantage over Dumas (71% vs 45%) represents a massive 26-point differential that could prove decisive in early exchanges. Combined with his 6.5 SLpM output, Johnson can maintain pressure while landing clean, damaging shots that accumulate quickly and create finishing opportunities against Dumas's proven vulnerability to early power.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Unknown defensive wrestling at UFC level; prolonged clinch sequences drain cardio and blunt power. With no documented UFC-level takedown defense statistics, Johnson enters uncharted territory against Dumas's 1.25 TD/15 min rate. The small cage environment increases the likelihood of clinch exchanges and fence time, where Johnson's explosive striking becomes neutralized. If Dumas can trap Johnson against the cage and initiate grappling sequences, Johnson's energy reserves—already questionable given his brief fight history—could deplete rapidly, compromising his primary weapon and forcing him into an unfamiliar grinding contest.
Unproven beyond a few minutes; effectiveness likely drops if he cannot secure an early finish. His 2:02 average fight duration means Johnson has never experienced championship rounds or even late-round adversity. The significant weight cut from heavyweight to middleweight adds another layer of uncertainty—while he may retain power, the cardio implications remain completely unknown. If Dumas survives the initial onslaught and drags Johnson into unfamiliar deep waters, Johnson's output, power, and technical execution could all deteriorate significantly, potentially transforming him from elite finisher to compromised debutant.
Must navigate Dumas's 5-inch reach advantage and 6-inch height difference. If he can't close distance effectively, he becomes vulnerable to Dumas's jab and teep kicks, which can accumulate damage and control the pace of the fight. The physical differential forces Johnson to cover more ground and commit to entries, creating opportunities for Dumas to counter or clinch. If Johnson's explosive entries are repeatedly stuffed or countered, his path to victory narrows dramatically as he lacks the tools to win at range against a longer, more experienced opponent who can maintain distance through technical striking.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Feint level to draw counters, come over the top; target body early and reset to center to re-blitz. Johnson's optimal strategy centers on immediate aggression—pressuring forward from the opening bell, using feints to create openings, and targeting Dumas's body to lower his guard before going upstairs with power shots. The small cage prevents Dumas from establishing his preferred range early, forcing immediate exchanges where Johnson's explosive power is most dangerous. Quick resets to center after exchanges allow Johnson to maintain offensive initiative while avoiding prolonged clinch situations that favor Dumas's experience and grappling.
If taken down, sprawl aggressively and return to striking immediately; deny grips on the cage wall. Johnson must avoid getting trapped in extended grappling exchanges where his inexperience becomes exploitable. Quick exits from compromising positions and immediate return to striking range are crucial for maintaining his offensive momentum and preventing Dumas from establishing control time that could shift judges' perception.
🧭 Sedriques Dumas Key Advantages
6'2" with 79" reach; jab, teeps, and kicks manage distance and slow blitz entries. The 5-inch reach advantage and 6-inch height differential create substantial physical edges that can control the fight's range. Dumas's 42.5" leg reach enables effective calf kicks and teeps that can disrupt Johnson's entries and accumulate damage over time. His UFC experience shows 79% of significant strikes landed from standing positions, demonstrating his ability to utilize length effectively. The jab becomes a critical tool for measuring distance and interrupting Johnson's rhythm, while teeps can create space after exchanges and prevent Johnson from establishing sustained pressure in the pocket.
Comfortable banking minutes via range striking, clinch stalls, and occasional level changes. His 40% decision win rate demonstrates comfort in going the distance, with victories over Tiuliulin and Azaitar showing he can win full 15-minute contests through consistent minute-winning. Dumas's 8:33 average fight duration indicates sustainable pacing, and his mixed victory methods (40% decision, 40% KO/TKO, 20% submission) create multiple pathways to victory. If he survives Johnson's early storm, the probability of a decision outcome escalates rapidly as Johnson enters unfamiliar territory while Dumas operates in his comfort zone.
Seven UFC fights provide invaluable octagon experience against elite competition. Dumas has faced power punchers like Oleksiejczuk, technical strikers like Tiuliulin, and well-rounded fighters like Azaitar, giving him tactical depth that Johnson simply cannot match. His 4-3 UFC record demonstrates he can compete at this level, and more importantly, he understands the pacing, pressure, and adjustments required in UFC contests—knowledge that could prove decisive if the fight extends beyond the early chaos.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Has been hurt and stopped early by fast starters; Johnson's blitz and power map to this fragility. Dumas's losses to Oleksiejczuk (R1 TKO at 2:49) and Ruziboev (R1 TKO at 3:18) reveal a dangerous pattern—both were stopped by aggressive power punchers who pressured forward and landed heavy shots early. Johnson's profile mirrors these opponents almost exactly: explosive entries, first-round finishing ability, and immediate danger from the opening bell. Dumas's 56% striking defense has proven insufficient against elite power, and his tendency to absorb damage early creates openings for Johnson's explosive finishing sequences.
TD defense ~40% historically; early mat time could sap gas and tilt optics. While Dumas possesses offensive wrestling ability (1.25 TD/15 min at 36% accuracy), his defensive grappling remains questionable with only 40% TDD. Though Johnson's wrestling credentials are unknown, any scrambles or mat exchanges could drain Dumas's energy and limit his striking output. The low TDD also creates vulnerability if Johnson possesses any grappling skills, potentially allowing Johnson to control tempo through clinch work despite his striker-first profile.
SLpM of 2.12 is significantly below UFC middleweight average, potentially allowing Johnson to establish forward pressure without facing overwhelming return fire. Dumas's conservative striking approach, while defensively sound against patient opponents, could prove problematic against Johnson's immediate aggression. The low output rate means Dumas must rely on quality over quantity, but against an explosive finisher, insufficient volume might fail to deter Johnson's entries or establish the necessary defensive barrier to survive the early rounds.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Jab/kick at range, clinch at fence to slow pace, sprinkle takedowns to bank control time. Dumas's optimal strategy prioritizes survival first, offense second. His long guard—jab extended, teeps ready—creates a defensive barrier that can interrupt Johnson's entries and maintain safe distance. When Johnson closes distance, immediate clinching against the fence becomes crucial for controlling tempo and preventing explosive exchanges. Occasional takedown attempts (targeting his 1.25 TD/15 rate) serve dual purposes: banking control time when successful and fatiguing Johnson's defensive structures even when stuffed, creating cumulative advantages as the fight progresses.
Focus on safe shot selection and control positioning rather than seeking finishes. Dumas's path to victory requires patience and tactical discipline—accepting that the first 3-4 minutes will be dangerous while maintaining defensive integrity. By prioritizing minute-winning through calf kicks, teeps, clinch control, and safe jabs, Dumas can accumulate scoring advantages without taking unnecessary risks. Each successful minute survived shifts momentum toward his decision equity, while Johnson's threat theoretically diminishes as unfamiliar cardio demands emerge.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics (25ft Small Cage)
The 25-foot Apex cage compresses space and raises early collision rates. That boosts Donte Johnson's blitz-based KO equity in the opening minutes, but the same compression also helps Sedriques Dumas corral entries into the fence where range tools, clinch stalls, and occasional level changes can bank safe minutes. If Sedriques Dumas survives the first wave, the geometry of the small cage begins to favor minute-winning and control. The reduced space eliminates escape routes for Johnson's explosive entries while simultaneously providing Dumas with more opportunities to trap Johnson against the fence and control the pace through clinch work and positional dominance.
🎛️Technical Breakdown
Donte Johnson enters with elite early danger (6/6 R1 finishes) but limited measured metrics at UFC level. By contrast, Sedriques Dumas brings a deeper profile: SLpM 2.12, 45% accuracy, 56% defense, TD15 1.25 at 36% acc., and TDDef ~40%. Output is lower but more sustainable across rounds, and the mixed paths to win (40% decision, 40% KO/TKO+Sub combined) create robust decision equity if the early storm is managed. Johnson's 71% accuracy in his DWCS bout suggests elite striking precision, but the sample size is limited. Dumas's 56% defense against UFC-level competition provides a more reliable baseline, though his vulnerability to power punchers remains concerning given Johnson's finishing ability.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three hinges decide it: (1) first 3–4 minutes (can Sedriques Dumasmanage range or clinch off the fence?), (2) wrestling insurance vs. unknown TDD for Donte Johnson, and (3) durability vs. early power. If Sedriques Dumas forces structured minutes—jab, calf kicks, clinch resets—his decision probability compounds rapidly. The weight cut factor adds another dimension: Johnson's transition from heavyweight to middleweight could impact his power retention and cardio, while Dumas's experience at 185 lbs provides a more predictable baseline. The psychological element also matters—Johnson's promotional debut pressure versus Dumas's recent KO loss creating potential confidence issues.
🏁Final Prediction
Most likely outcome: Sedriques Dumas by Decision (36%) through range control, clinch time, and tempo management. Secondary lanes: Sedriques Dumas KO/TKO (18%) and Sub (6%). Donte Johnson's best path remains KO/TKO (34%) in the opening exchanges, with small decision/sub equity otherwise. The small cage environment creates a fascinating dynamic where Johnson's explosive style is both amplified and constrained—while he can close distance faster, Dumas has more opportunities to trap him against the fence. This matchup represents a classic striker vs. range controller dynamic, with the added intrigue of Johnson's promotional debut and Dumas's recent vulnerability to power punchers creating significant volatility in the early rounds.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 34% | Fair: +194
FAIR VALUE
Model: 36% | Fair: +178
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 58% | Fair: -138
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights early KO volatility — market can underprice Dumas minute-winning.
- • Undervalues range control — jab/teeps and clinch can bank safe minutes.
- • Recency bias — Johnson’s R1 streak inflates KO tax beyond fair.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Sedriques Dumas
Primary path via range control and clinch stalls
Attritional or counter flurries
Front-headlock or snap-wraps off tired shots
💥Outcome Distribution - Donte Johnson
Mostly Round 1; a few Round 2 scenarios
Dropping opponent early and banking minutes
Hurt-to-mat follow-ups
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Donte Johnson
- • First 3–4 minutes: Highest KO probability.
- • Small-cage collisions: Force exchanges; deny grips.
- • Reset quickly: Short pockets, re-blitz.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Sedriques Dumas
- • Minute-winning: Jab/teeps, clinch stalls, safe shots.
- • Wrestling insurance: Occasional level changes to tax gas.
- • Decision lane: Bank rounds 2–3 with control.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 7/10 — small-cage volatility with clear decision lane for Dumas
Confidence Level
Balanced by R1 KO threat and decision paths
✅Supporting Factors
- • Dumas length and minute-winning tools (jab/teeps/clinch)
- • Multiple paths (decision, KO, sub) vs one-dimensional KO
- • UFC experience and pacing over 3 rounds
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Johnson round-one KO volatility is high
- • Dumas TD defense historically ~40%
- • Small cage increases collision frequency
🏁Executive Summary
Veteran vs newcomer dynamic with a small-cage accent: Dumas holds length, experience, and diversified paths to victory, while Johnson brings elite round-one knockout danger. If Dumas manages the first 3–4 minutes through range management and clinch insurance, his decision equity grows rapidly. This matchup encapsulates the classic tension between explosive power and tactical control, with the 25-foot Apex cage serving as both an amplifier and constraint for each fighter's preferred style.
Johnson's promotional debut adds significant intrigue to this contest. His perfect 6-0 record with all first-round finishes creates legitimate early danger, but the step up in competition level cannot be understated. Dumas's recent vulnerability to power punchers (losses to Oleksiejczuk and Ruziboev) creates a compelling narrative that Johnson's explosive style can exploit. However, Dumas's UFC experience, superior reach, and multiple paths to victory provide him with the tactical flexibility to weather the early storm and control the fight's tempo.
Prediction: Dumas by Decision most likely (36%), with KO (18%) and Sub (6%) live; Johnson's best lane is KO (34%) early. Moneyline lean: Dumas around -150 (60%). The small cage environment favors both fighters in different ways—Johnson's explosive entries are more dangerous due to reduced escape routes, while Dumas's clinch work and fence control become more effective. This creates a fascinating dynamic where the first 3-4 minutes will likely determine the fight's trajectory, with Johnson's power threat remaining constant but Dumas's decision equity growing exponentially if he survives the initial onslaught.