Talita Alencar vs Ariane Carnelossi
Women's Strawweight Bout • UFC Apex
Saturday, November 1, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Talita Alencar
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Vanessa Demopoulos | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-10 | Stephanie Luciano | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-09 | Rayanne dos Santos | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-19 | Stephanie Luciano | D | Draw - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-14 | Kelsey Arnesen | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Ariane Carnelossi
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-18 | Piera Rodriguez | W | DQ - Headbutts (R2, 3:16) |
| 2022-05-07 | Lupita Godinez | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-10-16 | Istela Nunes | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R3, 2:57) |
| 2021-04-24 | Na Liang | W | TKO (punches) (R2, 1:28) |
| 2019-09-21 | Angela Hill | L | TKO - Doctor Stoppage (R3, 1:56) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (53.90 vs 52.60) and Grappling Composite (39.90 vs 40.60). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offense, precision, and defense.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Talita Alencar Key Advantages
The 25ft Apex octagon creates a perfect storm for Alencar's pressure-based grappling approach. With significantly less space to maneuver, Carnelossi's already vulnerable 14% takedown defense becomes exponentially more exploitable. Alencar's chain wrestling style thrives in tight quarters where she can cut off escape angles and force repeated fence exchanges. Her 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes combined with the cage's dimensions means Carnelossi will face constant clinch pressure without the luxury of resetting to center cage.
Alencar's defensive fundamentals provide a crucial edge in a matchup where damage accumulation could swing rounds. Her 53-54% strike defense significantly outpaces Carnelossi's 45%, while her lower strikes absorbed per minute (3.77 vs 4.74) indicates better damage avoidance. This defensive foundation allows Alencar to weather early pressure and implement her grappling game plan without accumulating the visible damage that could influence judges' scoring. Her ability to absorb strikes while closing distance is essential for her clinch entries.
Alencar's volume-based grappling approach creates a relentless pressure that wears down opponents over three rounds. Her 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, while not elite in accuracy (20-21%), creates constant threats that force defensive reactions. Even when initial attempts are stuffed, her ability to chain wrestle and immediately transition to clinch control or re-shoots keeps opponents defensive. This pace is particularly effective against Carnelossi, who has shown defensive wrestling vulnerabilities throughout her UFC tenure.
Alencar's superior cardio score (66.4 vs 48.4) becomes increasingly important as the fight progresses. Her ability to maintain grappling pressure and control positions deep into rounds gives her a significant advantage in a three-round contest. Recent 15-minute performances against quality opponents demonstrate her ability to sustain output and implement her game plan throughout the duration. This durability edge is crucial against Carnelossi, who has shown vulnerability to late-round pressure in previous fights.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Alencar fails to secure early clinch entries and the fight devolves into extended striking exchanges, Carnelossi's superior accuracy (39-40% vs 33%) and power could accumulate visible damage that swings rounds. Alencar's lower striking output (2.62 vs 2.87 SLpM) means she needs to force grappling exchanges rather than engage in prolonged striking battles.
Carnelossi's explosive power creates legitimate knockout threat in early exchanges. If she can land clean counters during Alencar's pressure entries or catch her with hooks during clinch breaks, the fight dynamic could shift dramatically. Alencar's aggressive forward pressure makes her susceptible to well-timed counters.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Alencar should initiate pressure from the opening bell, cutting off the cage and forcing Carnelossi toward the fence. Her goal is to establish collar ties, underhooks, and outside trips off the fence. The small cage dimensions make this strategy highly effective against Carnelossi's defensive wrestling vulnerabilities.
When initial takedown attempts are defended, Alencar must immediately transition to re-shoots and level changes to maintain pressure. Her focus should be on accumulating top control time and securing mat returns rather than risky submission attempts. Ground control time is the path to victory.
🚀 Ariane Carnelossi Key Advantages
Carnelossi's striking accuracy (39-40% vs 33%) combined with her explosive power creates legitimate knockout threat in close-quarters exchanges. Her ability to land clean hooks and compact punches during clinch breaks or when Alencar pressures forward gives her the tools to dramatically alter the fight's momentum. Her 9 career KO/TKO victories demonstrate finishing ability when she can create space and land clean shots.
Carnelossi's stocky, explosive build combined with her 3-inch reach advantage provides crucial physical tools for this matchup. Her strength becomes particularly important in clinch situations where she can use her physicality to create separation and land damaging shots during breaks. The reach edge, while modest, gives her better opportunities to land clean shots before Alencar can close distance and initiate grappling exchanges.
While her overall takedown defense is poor (14%), Carnelossi has shown ability to stuff initial takedown attempts and immediately counter with strikes. Her strength allows her to defend the first shot and create space for power punches. The key for her is preventing Alencar from establishing chain wrestling sequences and forcing resets to center cage where she can utilize her striking advantages.
Carnelossi's power and accuracy create opportunities to accumulate visible damage that could influence judges' scoring even in rounds where Alencar controls significant time. Her ability to land clean shots during clinch breaks or when Alencar pressures forward gives her tools to steal rounds through damage optics. The threat of knockout power forces Alencar to be cautious in her entries and pressure.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Alencar successfully establishes top control and maintains it for extended periods, Carnelossi's path to victory becomes extremely narrow. Her 14% takedown defense makes her vulnerable to repeated takedowns, and once on bottom, she lacks the grappling skills to quickly return to feet or threaten submissions. Extended ground control time favors Alencar's minute-winning strategy.
Carnelossi's lower cardio score (48.4 vs 66.4) becomes problematic in later rounds when Alencar's pressure and grappling pace can wear her down. If she can't secure early finishes or significant damage, her power and accuracy may diminish as fatigue sets in, while Alencar's superior conditioning allows her to maintain grappling pressure throughout the fight.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Carnelossi must defend Alencar's initial takedown attempts with first-layer sprawls and immediately pivot to center cage. Her goal is to break clinch exchanges quickly and create space for power shots. She cannot afford to engage in prolonged grappling exchanges where Alencar's volume and control advantages become decisive.
When Alencar initiates clinch pressure, Carnelossi should focus on landing compact hooks and short punches during separation moments. Her power and accuracy give her the tools to accumulate visible damage even in brief striking exchanges. She needs to make every striking opportunity count to offset Alencar's control time advantages.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage & Control Dynamics
The 25ft Apex cage creates a perfect storm for Alencar's grappling-heavy approach. With significantly reduced space to maneuver, Carnelossi's already vulnerable 14% takedown defense becomes exponentially more exploitable. Alencar's chain wrestling style thrives in tight quarters where she can cut off escape angles and force repeated fence exchanges. The small cage dimensions mean Carnelossi will face constant clinch pressure without the luxury of resetting to center cage, making her defensive wrestling liabilities a decisive factor in this matchup.
🎯Technical Contrast & Statistical Edge
Alencar's superior defensive metrics (53-54% StrDef vs 45%) and lower damage absorption rate (3.77 vs 4.74 SApM) provide a crucial foundation for her control-heavy game plan. Her 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, while not elite in accuracy, creates constant threats that force defensive reactions. Carnelossi retains legitimate power moments with her 39-40% striking accuracy and explosive strength, but she needs to reset to center cage repeatedly to utilize these advantages—something the small cage inherently restricts.
💪Cardio & Durability Factors
Alencar's superior cardio score (66.4 vs 48.4) becomes increasingly important as the fight progresses. Her ability to maintain grappling pressure and control positions deep into rounds gives her a significant advantage in a three-round contest. Recent 15-minute performances against quality opponents demonstrate her ability to sustain output throughout the duration. This durability edge is crucial against Carnelossi, who has shown vulnerability to late-round pressure in previous fights and may struggle to maintain her power and accuracy as fatigue sets in.
⚔️Strategic Battle Lines
This fight represents a classic striker vs. grappler dynamic amplified by cage dimensions and defensive vulnerabilities. Alencar must close distance and force grappling exchanges to neutralize Carnelossi's striking advantages, while Carnelossi needs to maintain distance and land clean shots during clinch breaks. The small cage favors Alencar's pressure style, but Carnelossi's explosive power creates legitimate knockout threat in any exchange where she can create space. The outcome hinges on whether Alencar can implement her control game plan or if Carnelossi can land fight-altering damage early.
🏁Final Projection & Outcome Distribution
The statistical analysis strongly favors Alencar's control-based approach, projecting a 64-36 advantage. Her superior defensive metrics, cardio edge, and the small cage environment create optimal conditions for her grappling game plan. However, Carnelossi's power and accuracy provide legitimate paths to victory through early damage accumulation or knockout finishes. The most likely outcome is Alencar winning via decision through sustained control time, but Carnelossi's knockout equity keeps this fight competitive and creates value opportunities in the betting market.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 44% | Market: varies
GOOD VALUE
Model: 22% | Market: ~
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 56% | Market: varies
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Alencar
Minute-winning via control sequences
Opportunistic back-takes/arm-triangles
Attritional ground-and-pound TKO
💥Outcome Distribution - Carnelossi
Clean counters and pocket power
Damage optics in pockets
Low historical threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Carnelossi
- • Opening minutes: Highest KO equity before clinch tempo settles.
- • Pocket bursts: Compact hooks as Alencar exits clinch.
- • Center resets: Avoid fence concessions after first sprawl.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Alencar
- • Minute winning: Rides, mat returns, control optics.
- • Chain attempts: Re-shoots to break defensive layers.
- • Risk management: Prioritize top control over damage chasing.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Profiled statistical edge via defensive wrestling gap
✅Supporting Factors
- • Small cage favors clinch entries
- • Carnelossi TDDef 14% is highly exploitable
- • Alencar defensive metrics superior
- • 3-round pacing suits control template
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Carnelossi pocket power moments
- • Damage vs control optics in swing rounds
- • Alencar TDAcc modest; needs volume chains
- • Strawweight volatility in exchanges
🏁Executive Summary
This women's strawweight bout presents a compelling stylistic clash between Talita Alencar's grappling control and Ariane Carnelossi's explosive striking power, with the 25ft Apex cage dimensions playing a decisive role in the outcome.
🎯 Key Matchup Dynamics:
- • Cage Advantage: Small octagon amplifies Alencar's pressure wrestling against Carnelossi's 14% takedown defense
- • Defensive Edge: Alencar's superior strike defense (53-54% vs 45%) and lower damage absorption create safer entry paths
- • Power vs Control: Carnelossi's explosive accuracy threatens early finishes, while Alencar's cardio edge favors late-round dominance
- • Volume Wrestling: Alencar's 2.5 TD/15 creates constant threats that force defensive reactions and limit Carnelossi's striking opportunities
Strategic Analysis: Alencar's control-first approach in the 25ft cage directly targets Carnelossi's defensive wrestling vulnerabilities. The small cage dimensions eliminate Carnelossi's ability to reset to center and utilize her reach advantage, forcing her into extended grappling exchanges where Alencar's chain wrestling and superior cardio become decisive factors.
Risk Assessment: While Carnelossi's explosive power creates legitimate knockout threat in any striking exchange, her path to victory requires early damage accumulation or fight-altering moments. Her 48.4 cardio score compared to Alencar's 66.4 suggests diminishing returns as the fight progresses, particularly under sustained grappling pressure.
🏆 Final Prediction:
Alencar by Decision (44% probability) represents the most likely outcome through sustained control time and minute-winning. Alencar by Submission (15%) becomes viable late in the fight as fatigue sets in. Carnelossi by KO/TKO (22%) provides the primary hedge through early damage accumulation or clean counters during clinch breaks.
Confidence Level: 8/10 - The statistical gap in defensive wrestling (14% vs ~50%) combined with favorable cage dimensions creates a clear path to victory for Alencar's grappling approach, while Carnelossi's power maintains legitimate upset potential.