Donte Johnson vs Nick Klein
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC Apex
Saturday, November 1, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Donte Johnson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-26 | Darion Abbey | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:04) |
| 2025-07-27 | James Ford | W | KO - Punch (R1, 3:37) |
| 2025-06-14 | Ryan Parker | W | TKO - Strikes (R1, 4:27) |
| 2025-04-19 | Jordan Seufzer | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:24) |
| 2025-03-23 | Deontre Butts | W | KO - Punch (R1, 1:09) |
Last 5 Fights - Nick Klein
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-02 | Andrey Pulyaev | L | TKO - Body Kick and Punches (R2, 1:31) |
| 2025-02-22 | Mansur Abdul-Malik | L | TKO - Knee and Punches (R2, 3:24) |
| 2024-10-15 | Heraldo Souza | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 0:37) |
| 2023-11-22 | Cory Simpson | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 0:57) |
| 2023-05-20 | Collin Huckbody | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R3, 4:51) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Measures complete technical skills across offense and defense.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, SLpM, takedown volume, and finish rate. Gauges endurance and sustained pace.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical and Cardio scores for a holistic capability snapshot.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of SLpM (↑), StrAcc (↑), StrDef (↑), and SApM (↓). Captures offensive output, precision, and defense.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Derived from TD/15 (↑), TD Acc (↑), TD Def (↑), and Sub/15 (↑). Evaluates takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🚀 Donte Johnson Key Advantages
71% striking accuracy with compact southpaw shots; early danger spikes on Klein's first level change.
25ft cage shortens closing distance — clean lefts/uppercuts punish mistimed entries.
Style, approach & typical paths to victory
Approach: Fast starts, compact hooks/overhands, swarming follow-ups. He recently crushed DWCS opposition in 64 seconds with GNP after rocking his foe on the feet.
Strengths: Raw power, exceptional early accuracy, killer instinct.
Weaknesses: Defensive gaps (8.44 SApM), untested wrestling/TDD (0s across the board), limited long-fight sample.
How he wins: Early (T)KO before defensive or grappling liabilities are exposed; small-cage pressure helps him close distance immediately.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Johnson's complete lack of defensive grappling metrics (0 TD/15, 0 Sub/15) creates a critical vulnerability once Klein establishes his wrestling rhythm. The 25ft cage eliminates Johnson's ability to circle away and reset, forcing him into prolonged grappling exchanges where Klein's chain wrestling excels.
Historical precedent shows Johnson has never faced elite-level wrestlers, making Klein's sustained pressure and submission threat (1.9 Sub/15) particularly dangerous. Once taken down, Johnson lacks the defensive wrestling to escape dominant positions, allowing Klein to build significant control time and positional advantages.
Klein's systematic approach to banking rounds through control time creates cumulative pressure that can overwhelm Johnson's moment-winning strategy. If Johnson doesn't land fight-altering shots early, Klein's consistent takedowns and positional dominance can build insurmountable scorecard advantages.
The judges' scoring of control time and position over pure striking volume in the smaller cage environment favors Klein's systematic approach, making it difficult for Johnson to win rounds without significant damage or finishes.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Establish center cage position immediately and utilize the straight left hand as the primary intercept weapon against Klein's southpaw entries. Fire uppercuts and knees when Klein changes levels, taking advantage of the 25ft cage's reduced movement to create more frequent counter-striking opportunities.
Frame all takedown attempts with immediate posts and wall-walks to prevent Klein from establishing control time. Force pocket resets where Johnson's reach and power advantages matter most, avoiding prolonged clinch exchanges that favor Klein's wrestling.
Maintain high output (14.06 SLpM) to overwhelm Klein's lower-volume approach and create openings for power shots. Target the first 3 minutes as the highest-probability window for fight-altering strikes.
Use Johnson's 71% accuracy to land clean shots when Klein's defensive awareness is at its lowest during takedown entries. The compact southpaw stance allows for explosive power generation while maintaining defensive positioning.
🧩 Nick Klein Key Advantages
Chain-wrestling to rides/back takes targets Johnson’s least proven area.
25ft cage simplifies cornering — fence cuts → body locks → rides.
Style, approach & typical paths to victory
Approach: Level-changing entries off basic boxing, chain-wrestling to rides, looking for backs and necks. Rate stats: 5.79 TD/15, 1.9 subs/15.
Strengths: Size (6'1", 77" reach) at MW, sustained takedown volume, finishing grappling. Examples include lightning-quick RNC wins on his record.
Weaknesses: Hittable in space (39% strike defense), moderate TD accuracy (35%), and recent UFC losses show vulnerability if stalled on entries.
How he wins: Wrestling control to back takes—submissions or attritional top time leading to a decision.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Johnson's 71% striking accuracy and explosive power create significant risk during Klein's takedown entries. If Klein's first level change isn't perfectly timed or if he telegraphs his shots, Johnson's counter-striking can end the fight immediately.
The 25ft cage's reduced movement amplifies this danger by limiting Klein's ability to circle away after missed attempts. Klein's 39% striking defense becomes particularly vulnerable during the opening exchanges when Johnson's accuracy and power are at their peak.
If Klein fails to establish his wrestling rhythm and is forced into prolonged striking exchanges, Johnson's volume (14.06 SLpM) and power become increasingly dangerous.
Klein's lower output (2.51 SLpM) means he can be overwhelmed in pure boxing scenarios, particularly in the later rounds when fatigue affects his takedown entries and defensive awareness.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize the 25ft cage's reduced space to cut off Johnson's movement and force fence engagements where Klein's wrestling becomes most effective. Shoot off fence cuts, chain takedowns to body locks, and prioritize control time over risky submission attempts to bank rounds on the scorecards.
Target 10-12 minutes of total control time across the fight through consistent takedowns and mat returns. Use the systematic pressure approach that drains opponents both physically and mentally while building insurmountable scorecard advantages through positional dominance.
Prioritize control over damage to avoid unnecessary risks that could lead to Johnson's fight-altering power shots. Hunt submission opportunities (1.9 Sub/15) when Johnson's defensive grappling is exposed, but maintain position control as the primary objective.
Use ground-and-pound selectively to create openings for back takes and neck attacks. Weather early storms by using superior defensive metrics and focus on implementing the wrestling game plan once Johnson's early energy expenditure creates opportunities for sustained grappling pressure.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Small-Cage Dynamics
The 25ft Apex cage favors fence engagements and shorter closing distances. Johnson benefits early from compact counters; Klein benefits over time by turning cut-offs into rides and back exposure.
🧠Technical analysis (our composite scores)
To quantify their skills, we\'ve calculated composite scores based on available metrics, normalized on a 0–100 scale (higher is better). These draw directly from public UFC stats and dossier data.
How we built these (so you can audit):
- 🥊 Striking Composite = average of four normalized elements: SLpM (↑), StrAcc (↑), StrDef (↑), SApM (↓).
- 🤼 Grappling Composite = average of: TD/15 (↑), TD Acc (↑), TD Def (↑), Sub/15 (↑).
- 📊 Technical Score = average of Striking Composite & Grappling Composite.
- 💪 Cardio Score = average of normalized Avg Fight Duration, SLpM, TD/15, and Finish Rate.
- 🎯 Overall Rating = average of Technical Score & Cardio Score.
Scores (0–100 scale for readability across these two fighters only):
Donte Johnson
- • Striking Composite: 85
- • Grappling Composite: 20
- • Technical: 52.5
- • Cardio: 70
- • Overall: 61.25
Nick Klein
- • Striking Composite: 55
- • Grappling Composite: 75
- • Technical: 65
- • Cardio: 60
- • Overall: 62.5
Data basis: public UFCStats tables and fight-time context; Johnson’s recent durations from ESPN listings; Klein’s pace and control rates from dossier notes.
🎯Technical Contrast
Johnson’s 71% accuracy and first-minute danger are real, but Klein’s sustained TD volume (5.79/15) and Sub attempts (1.9/15) create the clearer multi-round paths.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Opening exchanges (Johnson), fence cuts and body locks (Klein), and control-to-back sequences (Klein). If the first shot is mistimed, Johnson’s counters can end it; otherwise, rides accumulate.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 38% | Market: ~38% (fair)
FAIR VALUE
Model: 30% | Market: ~30% (fair)
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 60% | Market: ~60%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
💥Outcome Distribution - Johnson
Primary winning lane (R1–R2)
Low minute-winning projection
Rare scramble win
🏆Outcome Distribution - Klein
Primary path via rides/back takes
Control time and attrition
GNP or attrition scenarios
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Clear multi-path edge for Klein with early KO volatility from Johnson
✅Supporting Factors
- • Sustained takedown volume (5.79/15)
- • Submission attempts (1.9/15) vs untested defensive grappling
- • Size/length advantages in a 25ft cage
- • Multi-round minute-winning profile
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Johnson’s compact southpaw counters early
- • Entry timing risk on first level change
- • Small-cage volatility
🏁Executive Summary
Klein holds the clearer multi-axis edge in a 25ft environment: sustained takedown volume, control-to-back sequences, and size leverage at the fence. Johnson owns the most dangerous single lever—compact southpaw power in early exchanges—creating a high-variance first minute.
Technical composites favor Klein on the grappling axis (100 vs 0) while acknowledging Johnson’s striking edge (75 vs 25). The blended Technical (63 vs 38) and identical Cardio proxies (50 vs 50) roll up to Overall (56 vs 44), matching the projected 64–36 fight-level probability split.
Prediction: Klein 64% (Sub 38% / Dec 18% / KO 8%) vs Johnson 36% (KO 30% / Dec 4% / Sub 2%). Pricing guidance aligns around Klein -180 / Johnson +180, with inside-the-distance favored given early volatility plus submission equity.