Allan Nascimento vs Rafael Estevam
Men's Flyweight Bout • UFC Apex
Saturday, November 1, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Allan Nascimento
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-31 | Jafel Filho | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-01-14 | Carlos Hernandez | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 3:16) |
| 2022-05-14 | Jake Hadley | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-10-30 | Tagir Ulanbekov | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2018-08-11 | Raulian Paiva | L | Decision (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Rafael Estevam
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-02 | Hyun Sung Park | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-22 | Sumudaerji | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-14 | Charles Johnson | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-03 | Joshua Van | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-23 | Felipe Bunes | W | TKO (punches) (R2, 4:50) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (56 vs 47) and Grappling Composite (31 vs 52).
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Allan Nascimento Key Advantages
Clean shot selection with low damage intake (SApM 1.96) creates safe minute-winning windows at range. His 60% striking accuracy combined with superior defensive awareness (51% StrDef) allows him to accumulate volume while minimizing risk. This efficiency becomes crucial in a small cage where space is limited and every clean exchange matters.
Front-headlock and back-take sequences remain live against level changes; opportunistic RNC danger. His 0.95 submissions per 15 minutes ranks among the highest in the division, with 71% of his career wins coming via submission. Against wrestlers like Estevam who initiate takedowns, Nascimento's guard becomes a legitimate finishing threat rather than just a defensive position.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
TDD ~30% can yield long ride time against a high-volume wrestler like Estevam. This represents a significant vulnerability, as Estevam's 6.41 takedowns per 15 minutes will likely find success early and often. Once on the ground, Estevam's 60% takedown defense makes it difficult for Nascimento to create scrambles and transitions to his preferred submission positions.
Small-cage entries to the fence compress space and reduce his footwork advantages. The 25-foot Apex cage eliminates the lateral movement that allows Nascimento to reset and create angles. Estevam's pressure-wrestling style thrives in this environment, making it difficult for Nascimento to establish the range and timing needed for his precision striking.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Underhooks, cage-walks, and granby-style escapes; jab/front-kicks to punish entries. Nascimento must prioritize immediate stand-ups over extended guard work, using the cage to walk up and break free. His striking arsenal includes sharp jabs and front kicks that can disrupt Estevam's level changes and create the space needed to reset to his preferred range.
🚀 Rafael Estevam Key Advantages
Volume entries with rides and mat returns bank control time and rounds. Estevam's 6.41 takedowns per 15 minutes represents elite-level wrestling output, while his 36% accuracy ensures he's not wasting energy on failed attempts. Once grounded, his mat returns and wrist control create sustained pressure that accumulates significant control time over three rounds.
Re-sets neutral safely and limits reversal exposure against submissions. Estevam's 60% takedown defense provides a sturdy base that prevents opponents from turning the tables when he's on the offensive. This defensive wrestling foundation allows him to maintain control sequences without fear of dangerous scrambles that could lead to submission attempts.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If kept at distance, Nascimento out-lands via accuracy and defense. Estevam's striking output of 2.06 SLpM pales in comparison to Nascimento's 2.64, while his 46% striking defense leaves him vulnerable to clean counters. Extended exchanges at range favor Nascimento's precision and defensive awareness, making it imperative for Estevam to close distance quickly.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Chain double/knee-tap entries, wrist rides and mat returns to bank control in small cage. Estevam's wrestling arsenal includes multiple takedown setups that work well in confined spaces. His wrist control and mat returns create a rinse-and-repeat cycle that accumulates control time while preventing Nascimento from establishing striking rhythm or finding submission opportunities.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage & Geography
The 25-ft Apex cage compresses lateral space and increases first-entry success for wrestlers, amplifying Estevam's strengths. This compact environment eliminates the footwork advantages that precision strikers like Nascimento rely upon, while creating optimal conditions for chain wrestling sequences. The reduced canvas size means fewer escape routes and more frequent fence encounters, where Estevam's pressure-wrestling style can dominate.
🎯Technical Contrast
Nascimento carries the striking efficiency edge with superior accuracy (60% vs 58%) and defense (51% vs 46%), while Estevam owns decisive volume and efficiency in takedowns (6.41 TD/15, 36% acc) with sturdy TDD (60%). This creates a classic striker vs. wrestler dynamic where the outcome hinges on whether Nascimento can maintain distance or Estevam can consistently close it. The statistical gaps are significant enough to create clear advantages in their respective areas of expertise.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Modal outcome is Estevam by Decision (46% probability) through rinse-repeat control sequences that accumulate significant ground time over three rounds. Nascimento's clearest spike path is a scramble-led back-take into RNC (18% submission probability), while Estevam could potentially finish via ground-and-pound or opportunistic submissions (11% combined KO/Sub). The decision-heavy nature reflects both fighters' durability and the technical chess match expected in this stylistic matchup.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 46% | Market: N/A
FAIR VALUE
Model: 18% | Market: N/A
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 59% | Market: N/A
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Small-cage dynamics – control time likely underpriced in lines.
- • Submission spike risk – market may undervalue Nascimento’s RNC threat.
- • Minute-winning bias – range striking minutes favor Nascimento more than priced when neutral.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
💥Outcome Distribution - Estevam
Modal route via control and mat returns
Attritional damage from control sequences
Opportunistic topside finishes
🏆Outcome Distribution - Nascimento
Out-landing minutes at range
Less common; precision over power
Back-take RNC lanes off scrambles
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Clear multi-metric wrestling/control edge in small cage
✅Supporting Factors
- • Estevam TD volume (6.41/15) and control loops
- • TDD advantage (60% vs ~31%)
- • Apex 25-ft cage favors wrestlers
- • Model leans decision-heavy outcomes
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Nascimento’s RNC/back-take spike threat
- • Striking accuracy/defense advantage at range
- • Scramble volatility
🏁Executive Summary
Estevam's chain-wrestling and control profile aligns perfectly with the Apex geometry, producing a decision-leaning fight state where control time becomes the primary scoring mechanism. His 6.41 takedowns per 15 minutes combined with 60% takedown defense creates a systematic approach to winning rounds through sustained pressure and mat returns. Nascimento remains a live submission threat off scrambles with his elite 0.95 submissions per 15 minutes, while his superior striking efficiency (60% accuracy, 51% defense) allows him to win minutes at range when he can maintain distance and timing.
Prediction: Estevam by Decision most often (46% probability) through accumulated control time and pressure-wrestling sequences that bank rounds in the small cage environment. Live hedge on Nascimento Submission (+456 odds, 18% probability) represents the most viable upset path, as his submission threat remains legitimate even when out-wrestled. The 64-36 split reflects Estevam's systematic advantages while acknowledging Nascimento's finishing ability in opportunistic moments.