Kevin Christian vs Billy Elekana
Men's Light Heavyweight Bout • UFC Apex
Saturday, November 1, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Kevin Christian
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-24 | Francesco Mazzeo | W | Submission - Triangle Armbar (R2, 4:17) |
| 2024-01-27 | Miguel Porto | W | KO/TKO - Knee to the Body and Punches (R2, 0:39) |
| 2019-09-28 | Alvaro Monteiro Tabosa | W | KO/TKO - Retirement (R1, 3:45) |
| 2019-03-17 | Daniel Trindade | W | Submission - Arm-Triangle Choke (R1, 3:00) |
| 2018-12-01 | Luiz Tavares Augusto | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 2:31) |
Last 5 Fights - Billy Elekana
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-26 | Ibo Aslan | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-01-18 | Bogdan Guskov | L | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 3:33) |
| 2024-07-27 | Jureall Simmons | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 1:58) |
| 2023-08-04 | Chuck Campbell | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-10 | Tristan Overvig | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (47.5 vs 51.5) and Grappling Composite (37.5 vs 16.3). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Kevin Christian Key Advantages
Front‑headlock and back‑take danger in clinch/scramble sequences, amplified by small cage. Christian's 3.23 Sub/15 rate demonstrates elite submission hunting ability, with his DWCS triangle-armbar finish showcasing technical proficiency in opportunistic grappling. The 25‑ft Apex cage compresses space, making it harder for opponents to create distance and reset, directly benefiting Christian's clinch-heavy approach and submission setups.
Length creates fence frames and snatch‑front‑choke entries against hurried level changes. At 6'7" with 80" reach, Christian's physical advantages become tactical weapons in close quarters. His height allows for superior framing along the cage, while his reach enables him to control clinch entries and create submission opportunities from positions where shorter opponents would struggle. This reach differential is particularly effective against Elekana's southpaw stance, creating awkward angles and forcing uncomfortable adjustments.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If stuck at range, low SLpM (0.75) risks losing optics to Elekana's volume/accuracy. Christian's conservative striking output, while defensively sound, creates vulnerability in early rounds where judges may favor activity. His 35% striking accuracy compounds this risk, potentially allowing Elekana to bank rounds through superior output and cleaner connections. The striking differential becomes most problematic when Christian cannot initiate clinch sequences or when Elekana successfully maintains distance and angles.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Walk Elekana to fence, pummel to head‑and‑arm, chain guillotines/anacondas off reactive shots. Christian's optimal path involves using his reach to establish clinch control, then transitioning to front-headlock positions where his submission threat is highest. Key sequences include: jab-to-clinch entries, collar-tie setups from failed takedown attempts, and opportunistic submissions during scrambles. The gameplan centers on minimizing time in open space while maximizing control time and submission opportunities.
🚀 Billy Elekana Key Advantages
Can bank minutes behind straight lefts and pocket entries when kept clean. Elekana's 2.34 SLpM combined with 57% accuracy creates a potent minute-winning formula. His southpaw stance provides natural angles for left crosses and hooks, while his volume can overwhelm opponents who struggle with pace. The key is maintaining clean entries and exits, avoiding prolonged clinch exchanges where Christian's submission threat becomes dangerous. When successful, this approach can accumulate significant strike differentials and control optics.
Will mix reactive or momentum takedowns to alter tempo and optics. Elekana's 0.64 TD/15 rate, while modest, provides important tactical variation against opponents expecting pure striking. His takedown attempts can disrupt Christian's clinch entries and create scramble opportunities where Elekana's boxing can shine. However, the 25% accuracy rate and Christian's submission threat make these attempts risky. The key is timing - using takedowns behind combinations rather than as standalone attempts, and immediately working to return to feet if unsuccessful.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
0% TDD (small sample) and a recent submission loss are red flags vs a tall submission hunter. Elekana's defensive wrestling sample, while limited, shows concerning patterns - his submission loss to Guskov via guillotine choke directly mirrors Christian's submission specialty. The lack of takedown defense creates a dangerous feedback loop: failed takedown attempts lead to clinch positions, which favor Christian's front-headlock series and submission threats. This defensive gap becomes critical in a small cage where escape routes are limited.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Jab‑cross, punch off breaks, sprawl‑and‑brawl; avoid prolonged ties where frames appear. Elekana's optimal strategy centers on maintaining striking distance while using his southpaw angles to create offense. Key tactics include: straight lefts down the pipe, right hooks to the body, and immediate exits after combinations. When Christian attempts clinch entries, Elekana must sprawl hard and return to boxing range. The goal is to accumulate damage and control time while minimizing exposure to Christian's submission threats through superior footwork and cage awareness.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Small Cage Dynamics
The 25‑ft Apex cage compresses space, accelerating clinch entries and scramble frequency. That favors Christian's front‑headlock series over Elekana's distance striking resets. This spatial constraint fundamentally alters the fight dynamics - what would be manageable distance management in a standard 30‑ft cage becomes a tactical nightmare for Elekana. The reduced perimeter means Christian can close distance more efficiently, while Elekana's preferred reset patterns and escape routes are severely limited. Every failed takedown attempt or clinch break becomes more dangerous, as the compressed space makes it harder to create the separation needed to reset and rebuild striking offense.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Christian's 3.23 Sub/15 vs Elekana's early TD‑D sample at 0% creates a stylistic mismatch. Elekana's 57% accuracy and 2.34 SLpM are real minute‑winning tools if he can keep the cage positions clean. This statistical contrast reveals the core tension of the matchup: Christian's elite submission rate against Elekana's suspect defensive wrestling creates a clear path to victory for the taller fighter. However, Elekana's superior striking metrics (57% accuracy vs 35%, 2.34 SLpM vs 0.75) provide a legitimate route to decision victories if he can maintain distance and avoid prolonged ground exchanges. The key variable is Elekana's ability to implement clean entries and exits without getting caught in Christian's submission traps.
🧩Key Battle Areas
First meaningful tie‑up, Elekana's shot selection discipline, and fence pummeling sequences will decide whether this becomes a submission hunt or a volume decision. The critical moments will occur during the first significant clinch exchange - if Christian can establish control and create submission opportunities, the fight trends heavily in his favor. Conversely, if Elekana can maintain clean striking exchanges and avoid prolonged clinch sequences, his volume and accuracy become decisive factors. The fence pummeling sequences are particularly crucial, as they determine who controls the pace and positioning. Elekana's ability to punch off breaks and maintain cage awareness will be tested against Christian's submission hunting instincts and superior grappling technique.
🏁Final Prediction
Minutes favor Elekana if upright and clean; finishing equity and clinch control favor Christian in the small cage. Projection: Christian edges the matchup with a strong submission path. The analysis reveals a clear stylistic hierarchy: Elekana's striking advantages are real but conditional, requiring sustained clean exchanges to accumulate meaningful advantages. Christian's submission threat is constant and amplified by the small cage environment, creating multiple paths to victory through both finishes and control-based decisions. The 65-35 projection reflects Christian's superior finishing equity and the tactical advantages provided by the Apex cage, while acknowledging Elekana's legitimate minute-winning potential when conditions favor his striking game.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 38% | Market: —
GOOD VALUE
Model: 18% | Market: —
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 60% | Market: —
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Small‑cage weighting – Market may underprice how 25‑ft favors clinch/sub paths.
- • Defensive wrestling – Early TD‑D sample for Elekana is exploitable vs submission hunter.
- • Volume optics – Minute‑winning upside for Elekana still creates variance early.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Kevin Christian
Primary path via front‑chokes/back‑takes
Fence control and pace neutralization
Club‑and‑sub or ground‑and‑pound lanes
💥Outcome Distribution - Billy Elekana
Clean counters during entries
Volume optics when upright
Low submission equity historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Billy Elekana
- • First 5–7 minutes: Highest KO equity before frames settle.
- • Exit discipline: Punch on breaks, avoid collar‑ties.
- • Wrestle sparingly: Only behind combinations.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Kevin Christian
- • Fence sequences: Chain front‑chokes and mat returns.
- • Minute control: Lower variance with clinch and ride time.
- • Finish equity: Sub windows expand after scrambles.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Small‑cage boost to Christian’s best paths
✅Supporting Factors
- • 3.23 Sub/15 vs suspect TD‑D sample
- • 80" reach and frames in 25‑ft cage
- • Elekana’s leakier defense (49% SD, 3.18 SApM)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Elekana’s minute‑winning volume and 57% accuracy
- • Early KO volatility on entries
- • Small UFC samples for both fighters
🏁Executive Summary
Christian's submission danger and clinch control scale up in a 25‑ft cage, while Elekana's volume/accuracy sustain minute‑winning upside if he keeps ties clean. The model leans 65–35 toward Christian with sub as primary route and Elekana's early KO as the key hedge lane. This matchup exemplifies the tension between volume-based minute-winning strategies and finishing-based path-to-victory approaches. Christian's 3.23 Sub/15 rate represents elite submission hunting ability that becomes exponentially more dangerous in the compressed Apex environment, where escape routes are limited and clinch sequences are more frequent. Elekana's superior striking metrics (57% accuracy, 2.34 SLpM) provide legitimate decision-winning potential, but require sustained clean exchanges that become increasingly difficult to maintain as the fight progresses and Christian's grappling pressure mounts. The 25‑ft cage fundamentally alters the risk-reward calculus, making Christian's preferred gameplan more executable while constraining Elekana's reset patterns and distance management options.