Timmy Cuamba vs Chang Ho Lee
Men's Featherweight Bout • UFC Rio
Saturday, November 1, 2025
Timmy Cuamba
9-3-0
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Chang Ho Lee
11-1-0
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Timmy Cuamba
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | Roberto Romero | W | KO - Flying Knee Head (R2, 3:55) |
| 2024-06-15 | Lucas Almeida | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-10 | Bolaji Oki | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-02 | Michael Stack | W | KO - Punches (R1, 0:13) |
| 2023-08-29 | Mateo Vogel | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Chang Ho Lee
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Cortavious Romious | W | KO - Elbows From Mount (R2, 3:48) |
| 2024-06-22 | Xiao Long | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-27 | Daermisi Zhawupasi | W | KO - Punches (R3, 3:35) |
| 2023-05-28 | Rana Rudra Pratap Singh | W | KO - Punches (R1, 3:52) |
| 2022-11-05 | Chang Hyeon Shin | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (60.0 vs 80.0) and Grappling Composite (50.0 vs 65.0). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Timmy Cuamba Key Advantages
Lee's 39% striking defense represents one of the most exploitable vulnerabilities in the featherweight division. This defensive deficiency creates multiple opportunities for Cuamba's counter-striking arsenal. When Lee commits to his high-volume pressure style, he leaves significant openings for clean counter right hands, particularly when loading up for takedown attempts. Cuamba's 2-inch reach advantage amplifies this counter-striking threat, allowing him to land clean shots while maintaining safe distance.
Key vulnerability: Lee absorbs 2.35 significant strikes per minute, making him susceptible to Cuamba's power shots when he overcommits to pressure sequences.
Cuamba's 5 KO/TKO finishes demonstrate genuine one-punch power that becomes particularly dangerous against Lee's aggressive, linear entries. His counter-striking timing has been refined through his kickboxing background, allowing him to capitalize on opponents' over-commitments. The recent flying knee knockout of Roberto Romero showcases his ability to finish fights with spectacular techniques when opportunities present themselves. Against Lee's pressure style, Cuamba's power becomes a constant threat that can end the fight at any moment.
Finishing ability: 56% of Cuamba's victories come by knockout, showing he doesn't need to rely solely on decisions when he finds his rhythm.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The 25-foot Apex cage significantly favors Lee's pressure style, providing less space for Cuamba to circle and reset. Lee's chain wrestling approach becomes more effective in this confined space, where he can trap Cuamba against the fence and work for takedowns. Extended clinch exchanges along the cage wall can steal valuable minutes from Cuamba's counter-striking game, forcing him to expend energy defending rather than attacking.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Cuamba's optimal strategy involves utilizing his 2-inch reach advantage with a disciplined jab-cross combination, supplemented by low kicks to disrupt Lee's base. When Lee attempts takedowns, Cuamba should sprawl immediately and counter with uppercuts or knees to punish the level change. The key is maintaining distance and managing pace over three rounds, avoiding extended exchanges where Lee's volume and cardio advantages become apparent.
🚀 Chang Ho Lee Key Advantages
Lee's 4.92 significant strikes per minute with 67% accuracy creates relentless pressure that can overwhelm opponents who prefer measured exchanges. This high-output style forces opponents to constantly defend, creating openings for takedowns and ground control. His striking volume is among the highest in the featherweight division, making him a nightmare for counter-strikers who prefer to pick their shots. The combination of volume and accuracy builds momentum and accumulates damage over time, wearing down opponents' defensive capabilities.
Pressure factor: Lee lands nearly 5 significant strikes per minute, forcing opponents to fight at his pace and creating fatigue over time.
Lee's 3.27 takedowns per 15 minutes represents one of the highest rates in the featherweight division, creating constant grappling threats that force opponents to defend rather than attack. His ability to chain takedown attempts together, even when initially stuffed, wears down opponents' defensive wrestling over time. This pressure style is particularly effective in the smaller Apex cage where escape routes are limited. Lee's 33% takedown accuracy means he'll miss often, but his volume ensures he'll eventually find success against even elite defenders.
Chain wrestling: Lee's relentless pressure forces opponents to expend energy defending, creating openings for subsequent attempts and ground control.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Lee's 39% striking defense makes him highly susceptible to Cuamba's counter-punching power. His aggressive style creates openings that skilled counter-strikers can exploit, particularly when he's loading up for takedown attempts. The 2-inch reach disadvantage compounds this issue, forcing Lee to step into Cuamba's power range to land his own shots. This defensive vulnerability becomes most apparent when Lee commits to linear entries without proper setup.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Lee's optimal strategy involves cutting off the cage with lateral movement, using 1-2 combinations to the body to set up takedown entries. When he secures takedowns, he should prioritize ground-and-pound from half-guard positions rather than attempting submissions. The key is maintaining constant pressure and volume, forcing Cuamba to defend rather than counter. Lee must avoid getting caught in extended striking exchanges where Cuamba's reach and counter-striking advantages become apparent.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Match Dynamics
This featherweight clash represents a classic striker vs. grappler dynamic, with the 25-foot Apex cage creating unique tactical considerations. Lee's pressure sequences arrive faster in the confined space, amplifying his clinch work and takedown chains. However, Cuamba's 2-inch reach advantage and elite 80% takedown defense allow him to reset to center cage, forcing mid-range striking exchanges where his counter-punching becomes most effective. The smaller cage favors Lee's pressure style but also limits his ability to circle away from Cuamba's power shots.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a fascinating contrast in fighting philosophies. Lee's offensive metrics (4.92 SLpM, 67% accuracy, 3.27 TD/15) and superior cardio create legitimate advantages that can overwhelm opponents. However, his defensive liabilities (39% StrDef, 37% TDD) align perfectly with Cuamba's counter-striking arsenal and elite defensive wrestling. This creates a scenario where Lee's strengths become his weaknesses when facing a skilled counter-striker with strong takedown defense. The matchup favors Cuamba's ability to exploit Lee's defensive gaps while neutralizing his pressure weapons.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined in three critical phases: the initial exchanges where Lee's pressure and takedown attempts meet Cuamba's counter-striking and defensive wrestling; the mid-fight adjustments where both fighters adapt to each other's patterns; and the championship rounds where Cuamba's reach advantage and counter-punching power become increasingly dangerous. Lee must avoid walking onto counters while chaining shots off his jab, while Cuamba needs early takedown defense wins each round to hold center cage and punish level changes with uppercuts and knees.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Cuamba's path to victory involves successfully implementing his counter-striking game, utilizing his reach advantage to land clean shots while avoiding Lee's pressure. His 5 KO/TKO finishes demonstrate the power to end fights with single strikes, particularly dangerous against Lee's 39% striking defense. If the fight goes to decision, Cuamba's ability to control distance and land cleaner shots should sway the judges. Lee's victory scenarios depend on his ability to break through Cuamba's takedown defense and maintain top control for extended periods, either winning by decision through pace and control or securing an attritional TKO via ground-and-pound when his chains eventually break through.
🏁Final Prediction
The model's 56-44 prediction in favor of Cuamba reflects the statistical advantages in reach, counter-striking quality, and elite takedown defense. However, Lee's volume and cardio keep this fight highly competitive, particularly in the early rounds and along the fence where his pressure style becomes most effective. The smaller Apex cage amplifies Lee's advantages while Cuamba's counter-striking becomes more dangerous in the center. The cleaner moments at entry favor Cuamba, but Lee's relentless pressure and chain wrestling create legitimate paths to victory that keep this matchup closer than the raw statistics might suggest.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Cuamba
Primary finishing lane via counters
Range control and TDD
Low submission threat historically
💥Outcome Distribution - Lee
Pace, control and mat returns
Attritional G&P or accumulation
Minor choke threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Lee
- • First 5 minutes: highest takedown chain success
- • Enter behind jab; force fence clinch and mat returns
- • Avoid linear entries into counters
🎯Progressive Dominance - Cuamba
- • Establish range with jab/low kick; sprawl and circle
- • Punish level changes with uppercuts/knees
- • Bank clean moments, manage pace late
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Clear stylistic edges with live pressure risk
✅Supporting Factors
- • +2" reach and strong defensive wrestling (80% TDD)
- • Lee’s low striking defense (39%) is counter‑susceptible
- • Clean counter power (KO/TKO 30% lane)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Lee’s pace and chain wrestling (3.27 TD/15)
- • Fence control in 25ft cage
- • Judges rewarding forward pressure
🏁Executive Summary
This featherweight clash represents a fascinating tactical chess match between Cuamba's elite counter-striking and defensive wrestling against Lee's relentless pressure and chain wrestling. The model's 56-44 prediction in favor of Cuamba stems from his ability to deny prolonged bottom time through elite takedown defense while landing cleaner moments at entry with his counter-punching power. However, Lee's pace and volume can still swing minutes along the fence, particularly in the smaller Apex cage where his pressure style becomes more effective. The 25-foot cage creates unique tactical considerations that favor both fighters in different phases.
The statistical analysis reveals clear advantages for Cuamba in reach (2-inch edge), striking defense (58% vs 39%), and takedown defense (80% vs 37%), while Lee holds edges in striking volume (4.92 vs 3.12 SLpM), accuracy (67% vs 42%), and cardio. These contrasting strengths create a compelling matchup where the winner will likely be determined by who can impose their preferred range and pace on the other.
Prediction: Cuamba by Decision or KO/TKO, with the counter-striking advantage and defensive wrestling proving decisive. Live hedge: Lee Decision if he can maintain pressure and control along the fence for extended periods.