Isaac Dulgarian vs Yadier del Valle
Men's Featherweight Bout • UFC Apex
Saturday, November 1, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Isaac Dulgarian
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-07 | Brendon Marotte | W | Submission - Arm Triangle (R2, 4:19) |
| 2024-03-16 | Christian Rodriguez | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-12 | Francis Marshall | W | KO/TKO - Elbows (R1, 4:48) |
| 2022-02-06 | TeeJay Britton | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 1:13) |
| 2021-12-10 | Ray Ostrander | W | Submission - Arm Triangle Choke (R1, 2:49) |
Last 5 Fights - Yadier del Valle
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | Connor Matthews | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 2:54) |
| 2024-10-15 | Antônio Monteiro | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-09 | Pena Allamov | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-04 | Adam Smith | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 1:06) |
| 2023-06-25 | Michael Aswell | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (68 vs 85) and Grappling Composite (88 vs 75). Balances Dulgarian's ground dominance with del Valle's striking efficiency.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Reflects minute-winning pace for del Valle and strong early finishing pressure for Dulgarian.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view combining skill level with conditioning and fight performance over three rounds.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of SLpM, Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. del Valle's elite volume and accuracy lift his score.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Dulgarian's takedown volume and submission rate drive a top-tier score.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Isaac Dulgarian Key Advantages
Elite-level chain wrestling with 5.15 TD/15 at 52% accuracy creates constant pressure. The 25ft Apex cage amplifies his single-leg to high-c transitions, forcing opponents into fence rides where his 2.1 subs/15 become lethal. His arm-triangle and RNC sequences from mount/back control are among the most efficient in the division, with 100% finish rate in wins validating his top-game dominance.
Perfect 100% finish rate across 7 career wins demonstrates exceptional finishing instincts. His strongest windows occur in R1–R2 where his explosive entries and chain wrestling create immediate submission opportunities. The arm-triangle choke is his signature finish, but his RNC from back control and ground-and-pound TKO sequences from mount show versatility. His 9.7-minute average fight time reflects his early-finish mentality and efficiency.
Devastating ground-and-pound from dominant positions creates cascading opportunities. His elbow sequences from half-guard and mount force opponents into defensive shells, creating openings for high-percentage arm-triangle and back-take transitions. The 25ft Apex cage's compressed space eliminates escape routes, allowing him to recycle mat returns and maintain pressure. His 71" reach advantage becomes crucial in top control, enabling damaging strikes while maintaining positional control.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
del Valle's massive +4.1 SLpM advantage (7.49 vs 3.37) combined with superior 52% strike defense creates a compounding problem. If Dulgarian's takedown entries stall, he faces sustained volume punishment with limited counter-striking options. The southpaw stance creates awkward angles for orthodox entries, and del Valle's 67% accuracy means most strikes land cleanly, building damage and round-by-round scoring advantages.
Extended scramble sequences drain Dulgarian's cardio while exposing him to del Valle's opportunistic submission game. His 0% takedown defense (small sample but concerning) suggests vulnerability in defensive grappling exchanges. Prolonged scrambles reduce his control time advantage and create opportunities for del Valle's 1.7 subs/15, particularly guillotines and back-takes during hurried entries or failed transitions.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Aggressive early pressure with immediate clinch entries to negate del Valle's striking advantage. Chain single-legs into high-crotch transitions along the fence, using the 25ft cage to limit escape options. Prioritize half-guard to mount progressions where his elbow sequences and submission threats are most effective. Avoid extended striking exchanges and focus on R1–R2 finish windows before cardio becomes a factor.
🚀 Yadier del Valle Key Advantages
Elite volume striking with 7.49 SLpM at 67% accuracy creates overwhelming pressure. His southpaw stance provides clean straight-left lanes against orthodox opponents, while his jab and rear-hand combinations accumulate damage efficiently. The 9.0-minute average fight time reflects his ability to maintain high output throughout, banking minutes with consistent scoring and building cumulative damage that can lead to late finishes or dominant decisions.
Solid 66% takedown defense combined with active submission threats (1.7 subs/15) creates a dangerous counter-grappling game. His knee and uppercut counters on level changes punish hurried entries, while his hand-fighting and hip positioning deny clean takedown attempts. When grounded, his quick base-building and fence stand-ups allow him to reset and re-accumulate volume, turning defensive positions into offensive opportunities.
Advanced defensive grappling with hand-fighting and hip turns that deny clean takedown finishes. His 2-on-1 wrist control and frame techniques prevent opponents from securing dominant positions. When grounded, his quick base-building and fence stand-ups create immediate reset opportunities, allowing him to re-accumulate volume and maintain scoring advantages. This defensive acumen protects his optics and prevents round losses from extended control time.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Extended top control from Dulgarian eliminates del Valle's volume advantage and creates cascading problems. Getting stuck underneath half-guard or mount reduces his 7.49 SLpM output to zero while exposing him to damaging ground-and-pound and submission chains. His 3.46 SApM suggests he can absorb punishment, but sustained top control from a finisher like Dulgarian creates cumulative damage that can lead to TKO or submission finishes, particularly in the early rounds.
Over-aggressive striking combinations can lead to clinch entries where Dulgarian's chain wrestling becomes dangerous. Over-chasing combos into the pocket creates opportunities for level changes and single-leg entries. His 0% takedown defense suggests vulnerability when forced into reactive grappling, and Dulgarian's 5.15 TD/15 means he'll capitalize on any defensive lapses. Maintaining distance and using pivot exits is crucial to avoid these traps.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Establish range control with jabs and rear-hand straights, using the southpaw stance to create awkward angles for orthodox entries. Punish level changes with knees and uppercuts, maintaining the 7.49 SLpM output that banks minutes. Pivot exits and lateral movement reset the pace and prevent clinch entries. Focus on accumulating damage and volume while avoiding extended grappling exchanges that favor Dulgarian's top game.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage & Tempo Dynamics
The 25ft Apex cage creates a unique dynamic that simultaneously favors both fighters' strengths. For Dulgarian, the compressed lateral space amplifies his chain wrestling pressure, making single-to-high-c transitions along the fence more effective and increasing mat-return recycling success. The shorter cage eliminates escape routes, forcing opponents into extended grappling exchanges where his 2.1 subs/15 become lethal. However, this same compression amplifies del Valle's counter-striking opportunities, with knees and uppercuts on level changes becoming more dangerous. Quick pivots off the cage re-open the center where his 7.49 SLpM output can accumulate, creating a constant tension between pressure and counter-striking.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The technical breakdown reveals a fascinating clash of styles where minute-winning advantages favor del Valle, but moment-winning opportunities favor Dulgarian. del Valle's +4.1 SLpM advantage at 67% accuracy, combined with a +11% strike defense edge, creates sustained scoring margins that accumulate over 3 rounds. His 9.0-minute average fight time reflects his ability to maintain high output throughout. However, Dulgarian's decisive edge comes from his 5.15 TD/15 with 52% accuracy and 2.1 subs/15—enough to flip rounds if control time is established. The critical battle is between Dulgarian's entry pressure and del Valle's multi-layered denial system (frames, hips, hand-fighting, and counter-striking).
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three critical battle areas will determine the outcome: 1) First contact at the fence—can Dulgarian connect hands below the hips before del Valle's frames and pivots deny the entry? This initial engagement sets the tone for the entire fight. 2) Scramble outcomes—del Valle's quick base-building and fence stand-ups versus Dulgarian's mat returns and control recycling. These micro-battles decide control time and round scoring. 3) Exit damage—when Dulgarian must abandon holds, does he eat counter knees/uppercuts or exit clean? This determines whether his pressure game becomes sustainable or self-defeating over 3 rounds.
🔮Victory Scenarios
del Valle's victory scenarios center on his volume and defensive advantages: decision wins via pace and accuracy are most frequent (34% probability), with late KO/TKO opportunities (20%) emerging if Dulgarian's entries get punished consistently. His 1.7 subs/15 also provides submission opportunities (10%) during scrambles or when counter-grappling. Dulgarian's path to victory relies on early dominance: submission finishes (18%) from mount/back control are primary, with TKO sequences (8%) possible from ground-and-pound. A narrow decision (10%) is possible with layered rides and clean exits, but less likely given his 100% finish rate in wins.
🏁Final Prediction
The final prediction favors del Valle (64%) based on his comprehensive advantages in volume, defense, and cardio across 3 rounds. His +4.1 SLpM edge, superior strike defense, and 66% takedown defense create a multi-layered advantage that compounds over time. However, Dulgarian remains live for early finish equity (36%) if he can convert fence cycles into dominant positions before del Valle's counters and scrambles tax his entries. The 25ft Apex cage amplifies both fighters' strengths, creating a high-variance matchup where early finishes are possible but sustained volume favors del Valle's path to victory.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 34% | Fair: +194
FAIR VALUE
Model: 54% | Fair: -117
SPECULATIVE
Model: 18% | Fair: +456
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Volume vs Control – Books may underweight del Valle's minute-winning over three rounds.
- • Small-cage narrative – Over-credits automatic top-time for Dulgarian; scrambles matter.
- • Submission volatility – Early sub risk exists but declines sharply after the first seven minutes.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Isaac Dulgarian
Primary path via R1–R2 control
Elbows from mount/top pressure
Control-heavy but competitive minutes
💥Outcome Distribution - Yadier del Valle
Clean counters and late volume finishes
Minute-winning via pace and accuracy
Opportunistic back-takes in scrambles
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3-Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Dulgarian
- • First 7–8 minutes: Highest sub/KOTKO equity from top.
- • Fence cycles: Convert singles/high-Cs into mat returns.
- • Damage first: Elbows to force openings for chokes.
🎯Progressive Dominance - del Valle
- • Minute winning: Jab, straight-lefts, exits on angles.
- • Scramble insurance: Build base, reset, re-accumulate volume.
- • Defense first: Knees/uppercuts to punish naked shots.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Solid edge for del Valle with early Dulgarian danger
✅Supporting Factors
- • del Valle SLpM and strike defense edges
- • Better TDD and scramble survival
- • Cardio/pace advantage over three rounds
- • Small cage still workable with pivots
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Dulgarian's early finishing threat
- • Takedown chains in small cage
- • Defensive wrestling data small-sample
- • Featherweight volatility
🏁Executive Summary
Over three rounds in a 25ft cage, the model slightly favors the more sustainable minute-winning profile: del Valle’s southpaw volume, strike defense, and entry denial cumulatively outscore Dulgarian unless prolonged top control is established early. The swing hinges on fence cycles and scramble outcomes—clean rides and mat returns tilt minutes to Dulgarian, while quick base builds and pivot exits restore del Valle’s striking edge.
Risk centers on Dulgarian’s front-loaded finishing profile; if he converts early positions, the fight can flip quickly via arm-triangle/back-take sequences or elbow damage. Otherwise, the aggregation of clean jabs, straight lefts, and counter knees on level changes trend the optics and totals to del Valle.
Prediction: Yadier del Valle (64%). Most frequent: decision. Live secondary paths: late KO or opportunistic club-and-sub. Dulgarian’s clearest path: early submission (R1–R2) or TKO from dominant top. Confidence 7.5/10 given the clear, but contestable, stylistic levers.