Ketlen Vieira vs Norma Dumont
Women's Bantamweight Bout • UFC Apex
Saturday, November 1, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Ketlen Vieira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-31 | Macy Chiasson | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-05 | Kayla Harrison | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-22 | Pannie Kianzad | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-01-14 | Raquel Pennington | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-05-21 | Holly Holm | W | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Norma Dumont
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-14 | Irene Aldana | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-06 | Germaine de Randamie | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-15 | Chelsea Chandler | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-22 | Karol Rosa | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-09-10 | Danyelle Wolf | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (37.7 vs 57.5) and Grappling Composite (52.2 vs 49.5). Captures complete technical skill.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate, takedown rate, and finish profile. Measures endurance and ability to maintain pace across rounds.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical and Cardio Scores. Provides a holistic view of capability adjusted for pacing and durability.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of SLpM, Striking Accuracy, Striking Defense, and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Prioritizes precision and damage mitigation.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Derived from Takedown Defense and Accuracy with volume (TD/15) and Submissions/15. Values control, defense, and reliable conversion.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Cage Dynamics
The 25ft Apex cage fundamentally alters the fight's geography compared to standard 30ft octagons. This compressed space creates more frequent clinch encounters and fence sequences, directly benefiting Vieira's wrestling-heavy approach. The reduced cage area means fighters have less room to circle and reset, forcing more direct confrontations where Vieira's clinch entries become more effective. Conversely, Dumont's clean striking mechanics and defensive footwork become more valuable in the limited space, as she can control the center and force Vieira to engage on her terms. The cage size essentially amplifies both fighters' strengths while limiting their ability to avoid unfavorable exchanges.
🎯Technical Contrast & Statistical Analysis
The statistical analysis reveals a fascinating striker vs. grappler dynamic with clear advantages for each fighter. Dumont's striking superiority is comprehensive: she lands 3.86 significant strikes per minute compared to Vieira's 2.84 (+36% output), maintains 50% accuracy versus 41% (+22% efficiency), and demonstrates elite 65% striking defense against Vieira's 51% (+27% defensive capability). Most critically, Dumont absorbs only 2.16 significant strikes per minute compared to Vieira's 3.72, meaning she takes 42% less damage in exchanges. However, Vieira's grappling advantages are equally significant: her 90% takedown defense is elite-level, while Dumont's 72% defense creates opportunities for control sequences. Vieira's 0.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes versus Dumont's 0.0 represents the only real finishing threat in this matchup.
🧩Key Battle Areas & Round-by-Round Dynamics
The fight will be decided in three critical phases: distance management, clinch control, and ground transitions. Dumont's success depends on maintaining striking distance, utilizing her jab-cross combinations, and implementing quick clinch breaks to prevent Vieira from establishing control positions. Her 56% takedown accuracy suggests she can threaten with takedowns to keep Vieira honest, but her primary path to victory is out-striking and out-pointing her opponent. Vieira's gameplan centers on pressure, cutting off the cage, and forcing clinch situations where her wrestling can shine. Her elite 90% takedown defense means she can afford to be aggressive in pursuit of takedowns without fear of being reversed. The small cage amplifies both approaches: Dumont's clean striking becomes more effective in limited space, while Vieira's pressure and clinch work becomes harder to avoid.
⚡Momentum Shifts & Critical Moments
This fight features several potential momentum shifts that could determine the outcome. Early in the fight, Dumont's superior striking metrics and clean technique should allow her to establish control and build an early lead. However, Vieira's pressure and takedown attempts will test Dumont's defensive wrestling throughout. The critical moments will come when Vieira successfully secures takedowns and establishes top control. Her 0.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes, while modest, represent the only real finishing threat in this matchup. If Vieira can secure back control or mount position, her submission threat becomes legitimate. Conversely, if Dumont can consistently stuff takedowns and maintain striking distance, her superior striking metrics will accumulate damage and score points throughout the fight.
🏁Final Prediction & Outcome Scenarios
Based on the comprehensive statistical analysis and stylistic matchup, Dumont's superior striking metrics and defensive capabilities give her the edge in a 3-round decision. Her 64% win probability reflects her advantages in striking output, accuracy, defense, and damage absorption. The most likely outcome is Dumont winning a clear decision by out-striking Vieira and maintaining distance control. However, Vieira's 36% win probability is primarily built on her grappling control and submission threat. If she can secure takedowns and establish dominant positions, she could win rounds through control time or potentially find a submission. The small cage favors both fighters' strengths while limiting their weaknesses, creating a compelling matchup where the fighter who better executes their gameplan will emerge victorious.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 52% | Fair: -108
GOOD VALUE
Model: 76%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 8%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
💥Outcome Distribution - Norma Dumont
Primary route via distance management
Accumulation or positional TKO scenarios
Low historical submission threat
🏆Outcome Distribution - Ketlen Vieira
Control-based rounds via fence & top time
Live choke routes from back
Less common given profiles
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Conviction level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Decision-heavy profiles reduce volatility; Apex adds grappling variance.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Dumont’s superior striking accuracy and defense
- • Low SApM and consistent round-winning
- • Vieira’s elite TDDef limiting reversals
- • Small-cage paths clearly defined for both
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Apex clinch time can compress scorecards
- • Submission swings from Vieira
- • Close round optics at fence
🏁Executive Summary
Dumont’s efficient striking and defensive profile travel well to 3-round decisions. Vieira’s small-cage clinch and takedown chains provide a credible alternative script with submission equity.
Prediction: Dumont by Decision most often; Vieira live by Decision or Submission if control sequences mount.