Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Ante Delija
Men's Heavyweight Bout • UFC Apex
Saturday, November 1, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Waldo Cortes-Acosta
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-23 | Sergei Pavlovich | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-06-07 | Serghei Spivac | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-15 | Ryan Spann | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 4:48) |
| 2024-05-11 | Robelis Despaigne | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-01-13 | Andrei Arlovski | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Ante Delija
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-06 | Marcin Tybura | W | KO - Punches (R1, 2:03) |
| 2025-04-12 | Yorgan De Castro | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 0:41) |
| 2024-04-04 | Valentin Moldavsky | L | TKO - Knees and Punches (R1, 2:17) |
| 2023-06-16 | Maurice Greene | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-11-25 | Matheus Scheffel | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 2:50) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (78 vs 82) and Grappling Composite (62 vs 45). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate profile. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧭 Waldo Cortes-Acosta Key Advantages
Sustained jab-cross output with 48% accuracy and functional TD sprinkle (0.37/15) to bank minutes. His 12.9-minute average fight duration reflects a patient, methodical approach that accumulates damage over time rather than seeking early finishes. This pace allows him to control the tempo and gradually impose his will through consistent pressure and volume striking, making him particularly dangerous in the later rounds when opponents begin to fatigue from his relentless output.
Solid takedown defense and measured clinch work to cool hot starts and control tempo. His 71% takedown defense percentage, combined with 50% takedown accuracy when he chooses to initiate, gives him the ability to dictate where the fight takes place. This defensive wrestling prowess becomes crucial against power punchers like Delija, as it allows him to neutralize explosive starts and force opponents into longer, more methodical exchanges where his cardio and technical advantages can take over.
Decision-heavy toolkit with late-accumulation TKO potential in extended exchanges. His 50% finish rate, while not elite, demonstrates his ability to close fights when opportunities present themselves. More importantly, his versatility allows him to adapt his approach based on opponent tendencies - he can switch between volume striking, clinch control, and occasional takedowns to keep opponents guessing and prevent them from settling into their preferred rhythm.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Small 25ft cage compresses exits; Delija's power counters over the jab are most dangerous early. The reduced space eliminates Waldo's ability to circle away from pressure and forces him into more pocket exchanges where Delija's power and counter-striking ability shine. Additionally, the compressed geometry means that when Waldo throws his jab, he has less room to retreat, making him more vulnerable to Delija's right-hand counters that have proven devastating in his recent fights.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Touch-and-go entries, proactive circling, 2–3 clinch rides and level changes per round to bank minutes. The key will be maintaining distance control while avoiding extended exchanges in the pocket. Waldo should look to establish his jab early, use feints to draw reactions, and immediately circle away from counter opportunities. When Delija pressures forward, Waldo should look to tie up in the clinch, land short uppercuts, and use underhooks to control position and reset the distance. This approach minimizes risk while maximizing his cardio and technical advantages.
🚀 Ante Delija Key Advantages
Clean entries and low damage intake drive first-round finishing equity, magnified by small cage geometry. Delija's 6.34 SLpM combined with his elite 1.95 SApM creates an exceptional risk-reward ratio in the early exchanges. This efficiency means he can generate significant offense while absorbing minimal damage, making him particularly dangerous in the opening minutes when opponents are still finding their rhythm. The small cage amplifies this advantage by forcing more frequent exchanges and reducing escape routes.
Fresh top-10 scalp confirms elite stopping power translating immediately at UFC level. His knockout of Marcin Tybura in just 2:03 of the first round demonstrates that his power carries against elite competition. This victory is particularly significant because Tybura is known for his durability and technical striking, yet Delija was able to find the finish quickly and decisively. This performance validates his ability to compete at the highest level and suggests his power will be a constant threat throughout the fight.
Shorter angles and fence-line resets amplify pocket exchanges where his power carries. The 25ft cage creates more frequent fence encounters, which plays directly into Delija's strengths. When opponents get backed against the cage, they have limited escape options, forcing them to either engage in close-quarters exchanges or attempt to circle out, both of which create opportunities for Delija's power shots. His ability to cut off the cage and force these situations will be crucial to his success.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If forced into clinch stalls and jab battles, his early power edge shrinks without a clear wrestling fallback. Delija's game is built around early power and clean entries, but if Waldo can successfully implement a clinch-heavy approach, it neutralizes Delija's primary weapons. Without a proven takedown game or extensive clinch experience, Delija could find himself in prolonged grappling exchanges where his power advantages are minimized. This scenario becomes more likely if the fight extends beyond the first round and Waldo begins to impose his pace and control.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Walk down to fence, force pocket resets, and land the right over the jab for early momentum. Delija's strategy should focus on cutting off the cage and forcing Waldo into defensive positions where his power can be most effective. By applying constant pressure and using his reach advantage, he can control the distance and create opportunities for his counter-striking. The key will be timing his right hand over Waldo's jab, a technique that has been devastating in his recent fights. He should also look to capitalize on any openings when Waldo attempts to circle away or reset.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage & Heavyweight Dynamics
The 25ft cage compresses space and increases pocket time, forcing more pocket entries and shorter escape routes. Heavyweights benefit disproportionately from this geometry since one clean exchange can decide a round or an entire fight. This favors Delija's early pressure and counter lanes over Waldo's preference for longer, lower‑variance minutes. However, the same compression also increases clinch opportunities; if Waldo proactively initiates ties on the fence, he can reduce volatility and convert chaos into round‑banking control.
🎯Technical Contrast
Waldo grades higher on completeness and endurance management, but Delija's damage‑per‑opportunity profile is superior in the opening frames. The 78 vs 82 Striking Composite gap is driven largely by SApM (3.51 vs 1.95), with both fighters posting similar defensive percentages (55% StrDef). In grappling, Waldo's functional TD usage/defense (0.37 TD15, 50% Acc, 71% Def) yields a stronger 62 vs 45 composite. Net effect: Waldo's technical average rises when minutes accumulate; Delija's advantages spike when the first clean connection happens early.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three deciding layers: (1) entry discipline—Waldo's jab must return to guard or Delija's right hand will punish the lane; (2) fence management—Waldo seeking underhooks/head‑position to pin and reset vs Delija pummeling off to create punching space; (3) tempo toggles—Waldo mixing short level changes to cool exchanges vs Delija surging off breaks to re‑enter with power. If Waldo wins two of these layers consistently, rounds swing his way; if Delija wins entries and fence breaks early, he crashes the fight inside two rounds.
🏁Final Prediction
Early moments lean toward Delija; extended minutes lean toward Waldo. Projection: Delija continues his form and secures an R1–R2 TKO at elevated frequency given the small‑cage geometry and damage metrics; Waldo wins a 29–28 decision in scenarios where he survives the first seven minutes and turns the fight into controlled sequences—jabs, clinch pins, and brief mat returns that stall resets and let his cardio edge accrue.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 48% | Market: ~48% (fair)
GOOD VALUE
Model: 22% | Market: ~22% (fair)
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 60% | Market: 60%
⚠️Key Market Considerations
- • Small-cage geometry increases early KO volatility relative to typical large-cage assumptions.
- • Waldo's decision path improves with proactive clinch usage; odds may underprice that adjustment mid-fight.
- • Delija's UFC sample is small; defensive/grappling numbers may evolve with more minutes.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Ante Delija
Primary finishing route in R1–R2
Lower minute-winning profile overall
Rare route
💥Outcome Distribution - Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Minute-winning path if surviving early heat
Late accumulation possibility
Uncommon route
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Round Fight)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Delija
- • First 7 minutes: Highest KO equity before clinch/wrestle adjustments stick.
- • Counter lanes: Right over the jab, fence-line resets.
- • Keep pressure: Don't over-chase; clean entries preserve SApM edge.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Waldo
- • Minute winning: Jab, clinch pins, and short level changes bank rounds.
- • Pace control: Manage exchanges, avoid long mid-range brawls early.
- • Defense first: High guard returns after jab to deny counters.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Conviction level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Early KO volatility balanced by Waldo’s late minute-winning edge
✅Supporting Factors
- • Delija’s elite early KO profile in a small cage
- • Waldo’s proven 3-round pace and round-winning tools
- • Clear, divergent win conditions enable live reads
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Delija’s small UFC sample for defensive/grappling stats
- • Heavyweight volatility (single moments swing outcomes)
- • Waldo’s susceptibility to counters over the jab early
🏁Executive Summary
Small-cage geometry and recent form tilt the early exchanges toward Delija. If Waldo survives the initial seven minutes while mixing clinch pins and sporadic level changes, his volume and cardio carry a strong decision path. Model split: 62–38 toward Delija, with KO/TKO as the primary route and Waldo clustering on decision wins.
Prediction: Delija by KO/TKO (R1–R2). Live flip if Waldo establishes clinch control and tempo management.