Steve Garcia vs David Onama
Men's Featherweight Bout • UFC Fight Night
Saturday, November 1, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Steve Garcia
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-12 | Calvin Kattar | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-07 | Kyle Nelson | W | KO/TKO - Elbows to Head From Half Guard (R1, 3:59) |
| 2024-07-20 | SeungWoo Choi | W | KO/TKO - Punch to Head At Distance (R1, 1:36) |
| 2023-12-09 | Melquizael Costa | W | KO/TKO - Elbows to Head From Mount (R2, 1:01) |
| 2023-04-08 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | W | KO/TKO - Punch to Body At Distance (R2, 0:36) |
Last 5 Fights - David Onama
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | Giga Chikadze | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-16 | Roberto Romero | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-27 | Jonathan Pearce | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-24 | Gabriel Santos | W | KO/TKO - Punch to Head At Distance (R2, 4:13) |
| 2022-08-13 | Nate Landwehr | L | Decision - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Steve Garcia advantage: 11.8%Cardio Score
David Onama advantage: 41.8%Overall Rating
David Onama advantage: 10.6%📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite for each fighter. Two-man normalization emphasizes head-to-head strengths.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, pace, and finish profile. Small-cage front-loading favors Garcia early; longer fights trend toward Onama’s steadier minutes.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score to summarize holistic matchup quality.
Striking Composite
Steve Garcia advantage: 17.1%Grappling Composite
Steve Garcia advantage: 6.1%🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Derived from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15).
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Steve Garcia Key Advantages
Small Apex cage compresses exits and favors Garcia’s fence traps, left‑hand lanes, and clinch‑break flurries. Onama’s resets are harder when cornered.
Southpaw cross over the jab, body work to slow rhythm, and fence‑line pressure. Mixing level‑change feints keeps Onama’s counters honest and opens power entries.
Elite hit-to-be-hit gap in a 25ft cage boosts early KO equity and shift control.
Onama’s 30% TDAcc and 52% TDDef make it hard to slow Garcia or control the mat.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If the early surge stalls, late-round volume and pacing favor Onama.
Onama's reach advantage and footwork could neutralize takedown attempts and keep fight at distance
Onama's higher output (5.24 vs 2.34 SLpM) could overwhelm Garcia's defensive striking in extended exchanges
Lower striking defense (48% vs 52%) makes Garcia susceptible to Onama's technical striking combinations
If Onama establishes early rhythm and pressure, Garcia's power advantage becomes neutralized
📋 Likely Gameplan
Trap along the fence, 1-2s and left cross over the jab, clinch-break strikes.
Press the action early with power strikes before cardio disadvantage becomes factor
Use takedown threats to close distance and land heavy ground strikes or submissions
Utilize Apex cage size to cut off angles and force Onama into defensive positions
Use superior accuracy (57% vs 51%) to land clean counters when Onama overextends
🚀 David Onama Key Advantages
Over extended minutes Onama’s pacing and straights can earn pockets of control, provided he avoids being sealed on the fence and forced into reactive clinches.
Jab discipline, inside‑low kicks, and early counter checks. Must deny clean southpaw lanes and pivot off the fence to keep rounds even and push for decisions late.
Better in deeper waters; decision equity rises after the first 10–12 minutes.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Higher exposure to clean left hands and fence traps in the small cage.
Poor takedown defense (53%) could lead to dangerous ground positions against elite grappler
Garcia's explosive finishing power could end fight before technical advantages matter
Lower striking accuracy (51% vs 57%) means more missed opportunities in exchanges
Higher strikes absorbed per minute (4.73 vs 2.34) creates vulnerability to power shots
📋 Likely Gameplan
High guard, jab-to-body feints, occasional reactive doubles to force resets and buy time.
Use reach advantage to keep Garcia at distance and pick shots with precision
Survive early danger and push pace in rounds 4-5 where cardio advantage becomes decisive
Maintain high output (5.24 SLpM) to overwhelm Garcia's defensive striking
Use footwork and angles to avoid Garcia's power shots and create counter opportunities
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: varies
GOOD VALUE
Model: 28% | Market: varies
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 56.5% | Market: varies
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulations based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Steve Garcia
Primary finishing method
Secondary route
Low probability
💥Outcome Distribution - David Onama
Early counter lanes
Minute-winning path
Occasional grappling looks
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Steve Garcia
- • First 10 minutes: Highest KO equity
- • Small cage: Fence traps and short exits
- • 1-2 / Cross lanes: Over Onama’s jab
🎯Progressive Dominance - David Onama
- • Rounds 3+: Minute-winning increases
- • Resets: Reactive doubles to buy time
- • Guard / reads: Avoid clean entries
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Slight lean to Garcia via damage differential; 5-rounds keep Onama live.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Large defensive/damage gap (2.20 vs 4.73 SApM)
- • Superior TD defense (88%) preserves preferred range
- • Small cage increases forced exchanges
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Five-round cardio drift favors Onama late
- • Onama decision equity in deeper waters
- • Featherweight volatility in extended minutes
🏁Executive Summary
The small Apex cage amplifies Garcia’s pressure and finishing lanes while compressing Onama’s exits. Damage mitigation (2.20 SApM vs 4.73) and superior takedown defense (89%) give Garcia reliable control points in volatile exchanges.
Onama’s cardio profile and steadier pace keep him live deep into the fight—especially in minutes where range management and jab activity can cool Garcia’s surges. If he avoids fence‑line traps, late rounds become increasingly competitive.
Prediction: Garcia by KO/TKO or Decision. Live hedge: Onama by Decision in extended, lower‑damage minutes.